Ranking the 2020 rookie rbs for 2021

[YouMightDieTryin]

The 5 best RB in this draft.

Taylor, Taylor, Taylor, Taylor, and Taylor.

Jonathon, JJ, Patrick, Kelvin, and Tito?

[stoneghost28]

This is probably how I see the rookie's ADP looking as they enter year 2 in '21 before free agency starts (end of Feb or March or whatever) w/what I think they're RB ADP was after the real NFL Draft last spring (if I'm wrong, feel free to correct me). .

RB1: Taylor (RB2 in Rookie ADP) Not going out on a limb there after the stretch run.
RB2: Swift (RB4 in Rookie ADP)
RB3: Dobbins (RB3 in Rookie ADP)
RB4: A. Gibson (RB6 in Rookie ADP)
RB5: Akers (RB5 in Rookie ADP)
RB6: CEH (RB1 in Rookie ADP)

How my board would look after the data we got from this year and just my intuition going forward say, projecting how we'd rank everything in January 2022:

RB1: Taylor
Reasoning: He looked #1 by the end of the year, and w/that OL having a full offseason together, and everyone else getting a full training camp, I suspect he'll be better in '21 by quite a bit. Especially if they land a legit QB.

RB2: Dobbins
Reasoning: Picking between Swift, Gibson and Dobbins here is hard, but the reason I gave it to Dobbins is because Ingram's out the door, the OL is back w/their stud LT healthy again, and they'll have a full integrated offseason w/no coaching or QB turnover at the top. Seems like a recipe for a great year even if Lamar doesn't throw to RB's

RB3: Swift
Reasoning: I could see Swift anywhere between 1st and 6th and none of it has to do with Swift. It's all based on the coaching hire, QB potentially leaving, and a totally new F.O/Coach possibly coming in w/potentially brand new QB. That's a ton of ???'s which worries me. If all are answered well, then he's just a touch behind Taylor, if they're not, he probably falls to 5 or 6 for me.

RB4: Gibson
Reasoning: No QB on the roster, the OL sucks (though has good Running grades, but will likely lose Scherff) and the top draft pick dropped from top 3 in early October to freaking 19th two months later meaning no shot at a stud QB or the stud LT of the draft.

RB5: CEH
Reasoning: 2020 was not remotely what was expected, he has to fall. I could see him finishing anywhere in the top 6 in '21, but 5 is the reasonable spot for now.

RB6: Akers
I Love Akers, but the OL ain't great, the QB is replacement level, and I'm not sure how much help he can get in the offseason. If they add talent to the OL in the offseason, I'd probably pop him up to somewhere between 3rd and 5th.

What makes me most excited is that other than CEH, they all look like studs right now and whatever issues are in play (really with all of them) appear more team based than talent based (even CEH looked good to great in the rare instances he got quality volume).
I also think all 6 guys will rank in the top 15, with Taylor, Dobbins, Swift and Gibson ranked inside the top 8-10.

[TimeWillTell]

This is probably how I see the rookie's ADP looking as they enter year 2 in '21 before free agency starts (end of Feb or March or whatever) w/what I think they're RB ADP was after the real NFL Draft last spring (if I'm wrong, feel free to correct me). .

RB1: Taylor (RB2 in Rookie ADP) Not going out on a limb there after the stretch run.
RB2: Swift (RB4 in Rookie ADP)
RB3: Dobbins (RB3 in Rookie ADP)
RB4: A. Gibson (RB6 in Rookie ADP)
RB5: Akers (RB5 in Rookie ADP)
RB6: CEH (RB1 in Rookie ADP)

How my board would look after the data we got from this year and just my intuition going forward say, projecting how we'd rank everything in January 2022:

RB1: Taylor
Reasoning: He looked #1 by the end of the year, and w/that OL having a full offseason together, and everyone else getting a full training camp, I suspect he'll be better in '21 by quite a bit. Especially if they land a legit QB.

RB2: Dobbins
Reasoning: Picking between Swift, Gibson and Dobbins here is hard, but the reason I gave it to Dobbins is because Ingram's out the door, the OL is back w/their stud LT healthy again, and they'll have a full integrated offseason w/no coaching or QB turnover at the top. Seems like a recipe for a great year even if Lamar doesn't throw to RB's

RB3: Swift
Reasoning: I could see Swift anywhere between 1st and 6th and none of it has to do with Swift. It's all based on the coaching hire, QB potentially leaving, and a totally new F.O/Coach possibly coming in w/potentially brand new QB. That's a ton of ???'s which worries me. If all are answered well, then he's just a touch behind Taylor, if they're not, he probably falls to 5 or 6 for me.

RB4: Gibson
Reasoning: No QB on the roster, the OL sucks (though has good Running grades, but will likely lose Scherff) and the top draft pick dropped from top 3 in early October to freaking 19th two months later meaning no shot at a stud QB or the stud LT of the draft.

RB5: CEH
Reasoning: 2020 was not remotely what was expected, he has to fall. I could see him finishing anywhere in the top 6 in '21, but 5 is the reasonable spot for now.

RB6: Akers
I Love Akers, but the OL ain't great, the QB is replacement level, and I'm not sure how much help he can get in the offseason. If they add talent to the OL in the offseason, I'd probably pop him up to somewhere between 3rd and 5th.

What makes me most excited is that other than CEH, they all look like studs right now and whatever issues are in play (really with all of them) appear more team based than talent based (even CEH looked good to great in the rare instances he got quality volume).
I also think all 6 guys will rank in the top 15, with Taylor, Dobbins, Swift and Gibson ranked inside the top 8-10.

I know it wasn't drafted with the top 5 (though neither was Gibson), but I think we need to start adding Robinson into this discussion around that RB4 spot.

[stoneghost28]

Now that the season is over how are we feeling about our ranking.

I was way off.

I just wish I'd kept my pre-NFL Draft rankings, can't remember w/certainty but I think it was something along the lines of:

1. Swift
2. Taylor
3. Dobbins
4. Akers
5. CEH
6 Gibson

and the only changes I'd make would probably be rejiggering the top 3 so it was Taylor-Dobbins-Swift, and popping Gibson to 4, and CEH to 6.

The NFL Draft caused me to lift CEH to 1 and to not even try to draft Gibson because my ----- redskins took him (pretty frustrating to think that if he'd landed almost anywhere else I'd have like 3x as many shares of Gibson as I have (3/15 and 2/12 dynasty).


The cool thing is that none of them look like busts, only CEH has disappointed considering where he was drafted, and all of them have shown that they could or definitely are legit when they got volume. Compare that to the potholes all over the '18 class ('18 Guice's career imploding, Michel being garbage, Penny being injured or second banana, Jones being a total disaster in year 1 and 2, Kerryon being replaced after injury issues derailed early promise, heck even '17 had many people's top guy in Fournette lapped by a half dozen other backs (McCaffrey, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Hunt etc) while Hunt basically friendly fired his own career as a bellcow through violent stupidity with women.

[stoneghost28]

This is probably how I see the rookie's ADP looking as they enter year 2 in '21 before free agency starts (end of Feb or March or whatever) w/what I think they're RB ADP was after the real NFL Draft last spring (if I'm wrong, feel free to correct me). .

RB1: Taylor (RB2 in Rookie ADP) Not going out on a limb there after the stretch run.
RB2: Swift (RB4 in Rookie ADP)
RB3: Dobbins (RB3 in Rookie ADP)
RB4: A. Gibson (RB6 in Rookie ADP)
RB5: Akers (RB5 in Rookie ADP)
RB6: CEH (RB1 in Rookie ADP)

How my board would look after the data we got from this year and just my intuition going forward say, projecting how we'd rank everything in January 2022:

RB1: Taylor
Reasoning: He looked #1 by the end of the year, and w/that OL having a full offseason together, and everyone else getting a full training camp, I suspect he'll be better in '21 by quite a bit. Especially if they land a legit QB.

RB2: Dobbins
Reasoning: Picking between Swift, Gibson and Dobbins here is hard, but the reason I gave it to Dobbins is because Ingram's out the door, the OL is back w/their stud LT healthy again, and they'll have a full integrated offseason w/no coaching or QB turnover at the top. Seems like a recipe for a great year even if Lamar doesn't throw to RB's

RB3: Swift
Reasoning: I could see Swift anywhere between 1st and 6th and none of it has to do with Swift. It's all based on the coaching hire, QB potentially leaving, and a totally new F.O/Coach possibly coming in w/potentially brand new QB. That's a ton of ???'s which worries me. If all are answered well, then he's just a touch behind Taylor, if they're not, he probably falls to 5 or 6 for me.

RB4: Gibson
Reasoning: No QB on the roster, the OL sucks (though has good Running grades, but will likely lose Scherff) and the top draft pick dropped from top 3 in early October to freaking 19th two months later meaning no shot at a stud QB or the stud LT of the draft.

RB5: CEH
Reasoning: 2020 was not remotely what was expected, he has to fall. I could see him finishing anywhere in the top 6 in '21, but 5 is the reasonable spot for now.

RB6: Akers
I Love Akers, but the OL ain't great, the QB is replacement level, and I'm not sure how much help he can get in the offseason. If they add talent to the OL in the offseason, I'd probably pop him up to somewhere between 3rd and 5th.

What makes me most excited is that other than CEH, they all look like studs right now and whatever issues are in play (really with all of them) appear more team based than talent based (even CEH looked good to great in the rare instances he got quality volume).
I also think all 6 guys will rank in the top 15, with Taylor, Dobbins, Swift and Gibson ranked inside the top 8-10.

I know it wasn't drafted with the top 5 (though neither was Gibson), but I think we need to start adding Robinson into this discussion around that RB4 spot.

That's totally valid, I was just looking at the consensus top 6 guys at the time of the draft (I also skipped over Moss and Dillon who some people rated far higher than me (I ignored both entirely in all of my rookie drafts, and 1 of 2 startups (I took Moss in a startup keeper league, and flipped him and DK Metcalf (whoops) for Diontae Johnson and D'Andre Swift.).

[bjd5211]

1 JT
2 CEH
3 Swift
4 Dobbins
5 Akers
6 Gibson
7 Robinson
8 Dillon
9 Moss
10 Vaughn

[StripesOfKC]

1 JT
2 CEH
3 Swift
4 Dobbins
5 Akers
6 Gibson
7 Robinson
8 Dillon
9 Moss
10 Vaughn

You don't think CEH sucks for not being CMC out of the gate? Must be a homer Chiefs fan

You should be trying to trade him for the 10th pick to draft *checks notes* Kenny Gainwell...

Or so I've heard

That said I may swap him and Dobbins--2 to 4 are quite close for me though

[bjd5211]

1 JT
2 CEH
3 Swift
4 Dobbins
5 Akers
6 Gibson
7 Robinson
8 Dillon
9 Moss
10 Vaughn

You don't think CEH sucks for not being CMC out of the gate? Must be a homer Chiefs fan

You should be trying to trade him for the 10th pick to draft *checks notes* Kenny Gainwell...

Or so I've heard

That said I may swap him and Dobbins--2 to 4 are quite close for me though

Nope, zero concern for me, CEH was basically what I expected this year overall until the injury and I think he builds upon it next year. JT and CEH are still tier 1 of this RB class for me.

[StripesOfKC]

1 JT
2 CEH
3 Swift
4 Dobbins
5 Akers
6 Gibson
7 Robinson
8 Dillon
9 Moss
10 Vaughn

You don't think CEH sucks for not being CMC out of the gate? Must be a homer Chiefs fan

You should be trying to trade him for the 10th pick to draft *checks notes* Kenny Gainwell...

Or so I've heard

That said I may swap him and Dobbins--2 to 4 are quite close for me though

Nope, zero concern for me, CEH was basically what I expected this year overall until the injury and I think he builds upon it next year. JT and CEH are still tier 1 of this RB class for me.

I agree with you personally and liked what I saw. He was clearly our best RB. Having him at 2 to 4 for 2021 is more just Swift and Dobbins exceeding my expectations than CEH undershooting them

[lukkynumber13]

Dobbins (will be worth next year's 1.01 or 1.02)
Taylor (will be an elite asset next year, just a TICK behind Dobbins in value)

CEH (will be seen as worth an early 1st, but not a 1st round startup like he was this year)

Gibson
Swift
Robinson

Akers
Moss

Kelley
Dillon

I feel great about the first 2 guys I had ranked in this thread earlier. CEH, definitely a "meh"

My tier after that, with Gibson/Swift/Robinson feels pretty sweet

[kmbryant09]

Tier 1 - Legit chance at a top12 season

1. Jonathan Taylor - There's no denying his production over the 2nd half of the season. QB is a question mark for this team, but he's locked in as the feature back behind a great O-Line and showed promise as a pass-catcher. Should flirt with top5 numbers.

2. J.K. Dobbins - I know, I know - lack of passing work and Gus Edwards stand in his way. But I believe they limit Dobbins from top5 territory, not top12 territory. He averaged 16.7 ppg after his return from COVID despite catching 1 or fewer passes in each game. That 16.7ppg is already top12 production - now imagine if Edwards leaves in Free Agency and Dobbins sees an expanded role!

3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - His production was somewhat disappointing before the injury, but let's not lose sight of the fact that he was on pace for 1,350 total yards, 45 catches and 6 TDs before his injury - while splitting time and seeing awful TD luck. KC had just 22% of their TDs on the ground (31st in the league), and CEH+Bell combined for just 6 / 13 rushing TDs for the team. He's still in line for 250+ touches in the league's best offense and could see positive TD regression.

4. Cam Akers - He turned a corner over the 2nd half of the season, and his strong playoff performance should only help. He's clearly their best back, and McVay always gets elite production out of the RB position. He could lead the league in rushing TDs next year.

Tier 2 - Outside chance at top12 production, but question marks exist

5. James Robinson - Jacksonville is likely to bring in more talent at the RB position, but that should only compliment Robinson, not threaten him. He was on pace for 1,600 total yards and 11 TDs before his injury - now imagine him in a Trevor Lawrence offense instead of Glennon/Minshew leading the way.

6. D'Andre Swift - I'll admit, I was skeptical of his ability to produce in the pros, but his game definitely translated. He may be the best pass-catcher of this group, but I do worry about his role and DET's offense in general. He couldn't command a large % of the rushing opportunity with AP on a rebuilding team, and Stafford could be gone as DET embraces a full-on rebuild.

7. Antonio Gibson - Being ranked "last" isn't necessarily a knock on Gibson, as I believe all 7 of these guys will have top18 ADP heading into next season. He showed better-than-expected ability as a rusher, but his receiving work is capped with McKissic in town and I don't see a likely path for WAS to address their QB position. If McKissic leaves, I may bump AG above Swift & Robinson as a fringe top-12 RB next season.

[Chwf3rd]

Tier 1 - Legit chance at a top12 season

1. Jonathan Taylor - There's no denying his production over the 2nd half of the season. QB is a question mark for this team, but he's locked in as the feature back behind a great O-Line and showed promise as a pass-catcher. Should flirt with top5 numbers.

2. J.K. Dobbins - I know, I know - lack of passing work and Gus Edwards stand in his way. But I believe they limit Dobbins from top5 territory, not top12 territory. He averaged 16.7 ppg after his return from COVID despite catching 1 or fewer passes in each game. That 16.7ppg is already top12 production - now imagine if Edwards leaves in Free Agency and Dobbins sees an expanded role!

3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - His production was somewhat disappointing before the injury, but let's not lose sight of the fact that he was on pace for 1,350 total yards, 45 catches and 6 TDs before his injury - while splitting time and seeing awful TD luck. KC had just 22% of their TDs on the ground (31st in the league), and CEH+Bell combined for just 6 / 13 rushing TDs for the team. He's still in line for 250+ touches in the league's best offense and could see positive TD regression.

4. Cam Akers - He turned a corner over the 2nd half of the season, and his strong playoff performance should only help. He's clearly their best back, and McVay always gets elite production out of the RB position. He could lead the league in rushing TDs next year.

Tier 2 - Outside chance at top12 production, but question marks exist

5. James Robinson - Jacksonville is likely to bring in more talent at the RB position, but that should only compliment Robinson, not threaten him. He was on pace for 1,600 total yards and 11 TDs before his injury - now imagine him in a Trevor Lawrence offense instead of Glennon/Minshew leading the way.

6. D'Andre Swift - I'll admit, I was skeptical of his ability to produce in the pros, but his game definitely translated. He may be the best pass-catcher of this group, but I do worry about his role and DET's offense in general. He couldn't command a large % of the rushing opportunity with AP on a rebuilding team, and Stafford could be gone as DET embraces a full-on rebuild.

7. Antonio Gibson - Being ranked "last" isn't necessarily a knock on Gibson, as I believe all 7 of these guys will have top18 ADP heading into next season. He showed better-than-expected ability as a rusher, but his receiving work is capped with McKissic in town and I don't see a likely path for WAS to address their QB position. If McKissic leaves, I may bump AG above Swift & Robinson as a fringe top-12 RB next season.

D'Andre Swift that low is batshit crazy to me

[mgscott]

Tier 1 - Legit chance at a top12 season

1. Jonathan Taylor - There's no denying his production over the 2nd half of the season. QB is a question mark for this team, but he's locked in as the feature back behind a great O-Line and showed promise as a pass-catcher. Should flirt with top5 numbers.

2. J.K. Dobbins - I know, I know - lack of passing work and Gus Edwards stand in his way. But I believe they limit Dobbins from top5 territory, not top12 territory. He averaged 16.7 ppg after his return from COVID despite catching 1 or fewer passes in each game. That 16.7ppg is already top12 production - now imagine if Edwards leaves in Free Agency and Dobbins sees an expanded role!

3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - His production was somewhat disappointing before the injury, but let's not lose sight of the fact that he was on pace for 1,350 total yards, 45 catches and 6 TDs before his injury - while splitting time and seeing awful TD luck. KC had just 22% of their TDs on the ground (31st in the league), and CEH+Bell combined for just 6 / 13 rushing TDs for the team. He's still in line for 250+ touches in the league's best offense and could see positive TD regression.

4. Cam Akers - He turned a corner over the 2nd half of the season, and his strong playoff performance should only help. He's clearly their best back, and McVay always gets elite production out of the RB position. He could lead the league in rushing TDs next year.

Tier 2 - Outside chance at top12 production, but question marks exist

5. James Robinson - Jacksonville is likely to bring in more talent at the RB position, but that should only compliment Robinson, not threaten him. He was on pace for 1,600 total yards and 11 TDs before his injury - now imagine him in a Trevor Lawrence offense instead of Glennon/Minshew leading the way.

6. D'Andre Swift - I'll admit, I was skeptical of his ability to produce in the pros, but his game definitely translated. He may be the best pass-catcher of this group, but I do worry about his role and DET's offense in general. He couldn't command a large % of the rushing opportunity with AP on a rebuilding team, and Stafford could be gone as DET embraces a full-on rebuild.

7. Antonio Gibson - Being ranked "last" isn't necessarily a knock on Gibson, as I believe all 7 of these guys will have top18 ADP heading into next season. He showed better-than-expected ability as a rusher, but his receiving work is capped with McKissic in town and I don't see a likely path for WAS to address their QB position. If McKissic leaves, I may bump AG above Swift & Robinson as a fringe top-12 RB next season.

D'Andre Swift that low is batshit crazy to me

I think it just goes to show how deep and talented this draft class was. I could see Swift being higher, but don't have a problem with these rankings, as I would probably have it the same.

[MEuRaH]

Dobbins (will be worth next year's 1.01 or 1.02)
Taylor (will be an elite asset next year, just a TICK behind Dobbins in value)

CEH (will be seen as worth an early 1st, but not a 1st round startup like he was this year)

Gibson
Swift
Robinson

Akers
Moss

Kelley
Dillon

I feel great about the first 2 guys I had ranked in this thread earlier. CEH, definitely a "meh"

My tier after that, with Gibson/Swift/Robinson feels pretty sweet

This is the best guess of all of them. You can't beat yourself up about CEH, injuries are flukey. But vs everyone else I think you were the best, so I declare you the winner! Your prize is in the mail.

[Sriracha]

Dobbins
Akers
Swift
Robinson
CEH
Gibson
Taylor
Moss

He makes people miss, and looks electric in the open field.

Since week 1, he’s impressed me in limited sample size.

He has had 1 long run where he looked "electric in the open field". The rest has been pretty standard stuff.

So 1 run elevates him over guys like Robinson, CEH, and Gibson? Just out of curiosity, where did you have Akers predraft? Did you have him ahead of those guys and haven't adjusted? Because I just don't see how anybody could rank Akers ahead of those 3 you have behind him based on their NFL seasons thus far.

My pre NFL draft list:
JT, Swift, Dobbins, Akers||Tier break ||
CEH || Tier break ||
Gibson, AJD, Moss

Robinson was a late round flier for me

It's completely fine if you disagree. I haven't watched every single snap of all of these RB's this season, but in the limited reps I've seen only Dobbins, Akers (and Robinson who I'm just hesitant to buy in on given his draft capital) have shown the X-factor I look for in a potential stud RB. It's more than just that one play, he's looked elusive whenever he's gotten into the open field; made 3 guys miss in his lone reception last week for instance.

CEH has more or less been a volume producer and he hasn't shined as a receiver the way a RB like him needs to (at this point, of course he could improve). He's looked very solid, elusive but limited.

Are we still thinking it's crazy I had Akers at #2?

CEH's 4.7 ypc fell down to 4.4ypc and he went from "on pace for 1552 yards" to "on pace for 1300 yards" before he was injured to end the season.

End of season rankings:
JT (Ok, he was my 1.01 pre draft... Severe mid season disappoint had me emotionally drop him much farther than I should've)
Akers: Bell Cow, elite O-line, run first offense
Dobbins: Phenomenal, but Lamar doesn't check it down and Gus Edwards is going to be there to split time
Swift: Love the talent, but there's a ton of ambiguity about his future: will Stafford be back? Will new regime bring in another RB? What offense will they run?
CEH: Still don't think he's as talented as the other RBs, but he's in the best situation in football and has draft capital artificially increasing his value. I expect him to catch more passes next year as well, so his upside is just as high.
Gibson: WSH's biggest issue is still QB, and they played their way out of drafting one this year.. and his receiving opportunity is somewhat limited because of McKissic. If he can overtake McKissic for 3rd down back duties and or he gets a QB upgrade this off-season he's jumping all the way to 3 on my list.
James Robinson: I just don't trust the Jaguars to be rational and not invest at RB. He looks great, though.