Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:34 pm

AussieMate wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:57 pm
PR0v3 wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:47 pm The only reason Lamb ever was considered a better prospect than Jefferson in the first place was due to a false narrative, that JJ was just a slot guy. At this point, it seems pretty apparent to me that Jefferson has been better than Lamb all along. He outproduced Lamb in college despite facing stiffer competition, he outperformed Lamb at the combine, he outperformed Lamb in their rookie NFL seasons. Jefferson is just the better player, he always was.
I feel like this is using a lot of hindsight though, there were legitimate questions about him playing outside, he looked ok his previous year playing outside but wasn't near as dominant. Its easy to say now that he improved in his last year and could have dominated if he was used outside. I do agree though that being a slot guy shouldn't be as large a knock as it used to be considered, some of the top WR's in the NFL spend huge amounts of time in the slot like Thomas, points are points regardless where on the field you play more.
I have Jefferson easily above Lamb now but we can't sit here and pretend like he was always the better receiver prospect.
Yes, hindsight is the whole point of the post. In hindsight, Jefferson has been the better player every step of the way. People may not have thought so at the time, but they were just wrong. The “slot guy” knock was unfounded, and if it weren’t for that nobody ever would have had Lamb over Jefferson in the first place due to superior production and athleticism, and there’s even less of a reason to have Lamb over Jefferson now.
Last edited by PR0v3 on Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:37 pm

Lamb was my WR1 heading into the 2020 rookie drafts, but no chance in hell i'd take him in dynasty over JJ at this point. This isn't a shot at Lamb, but JJ has proven he is elite with his play, and Lamb hasn't. I watch both these guys, and they both look great, but to me, JJ looks special. I'm not sure I see that with Lamb yet, but he has made a couple nice plays. If someone were to take Lamb over JJ in a startup, I wouldn't have a problem with it, but I certainly would never do it myself.

Also, I actually am the Justin Jefferson...
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:42 pm

Also, I cringe when people say that JJ had a great season. He didn't have a great season, he had a HISTORIC season!



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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby joeday » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:56 pm

gogobradyarm wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:42 pm Also, I cringe when people say that JJ had a great season. He didn't have a great season, he had a HISTORIC season!



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And to think OBJ only played 12 games in 2014 and had more catches, more TDs and only 95 less yards. Mind blowing what he coulda done in all 16 games!

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Bot101 » Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:01 pm

Id rather have Jefferson over Lamb and the discussion isnt really close for me. If Lamb is being valued at a high end WR 1 in dynasty, I only wish I had shares for me to be selling at that value. He plays almost exclusively in the slot to hide him vs better coverage. Its so easy for him to produce when you have Cooper and Gallup outside. Id pump the brakes on Lamb until we see what he can do as the top dog. He needs to play more outside, and he needs to gain 10-15 lbs.

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Ice » Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:28 pm

Bot101 wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:01 pm Id rather have Jefferson over Lamb and the discussion isnt really close for me. If Lamb is being valued at a high end WR 1 in dynasty, I only wish I had shares for me to be selling at that value. He plays almost exclusively in the slot to hide him vs better coverage. Its so easy for him to produce when you have Cooper and Gallup outside. Id pump the brakes on Lamb until we see what he can do as the top dog. He needs to play more outside, and he needs to gain 10-15 lbs.
He is 1 inch taller than Jefferson and they weigh the same.

Did you really watch Dalton much this year. Don't blame you it wasn't easy.

Easy to Produce? Dalton had like 2 good games. Slot work is not a weakness. Lamb averaged 6.8 targets per game Jefferson 7.8. Really good chance Lamb's targets go up significantly next season. In fact it would be foolish to think otherwise IMO.

Deep targets in 2020 Jefferson plus 3 total (19 to 22)
Red zone Targets 2020 Jefferson plus 1 total (11 to 12)
Target share 17.7 Lamb 25.7 Jefferson
Snap share 68.6 Lamb 86.4 Jefferson

One could argue Lamb did almost as well in several key metrics with far less opportunity.

He doesn't play slot to hide coverage. He plays slot because of the system. Dallas had most TE's hurt and play 11 personnel a ton.

I am not saying to take Lamb ahead of Jefferson but one year is not a career and these two are pretty close. My take is Dallas will have the better system going forward and he could pass Jefferson in production as his snap share and target share increases.

Obviously Jefferson will command more given production but the point is when one drills down they are not very far apart other than one had a legit NFL QB. The other's legit QB was on the sideline. That matters a TON to any objective observer.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Vcize » Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:42 pm

joeday wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:49 pm
Sriracha wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:32 pm They're the same tier of prospect (Lamb, Jefferson).. however one of them has already proven he can put up a WR1 season and just broke the all time rookie receiving yardage record.

Can't imagine any world where someone would take Lamb over Jefferson right now. Maybe Lamb finishes higher, but odds are certainly not in his favor. Justin Jefferson is already in rarified air.
I gotta disagree with you here. Keep in mind I have the same number of shares in JJ and Lamb, so this is my completely unbiased opinion...

@90 catches
@1400 yards
@6 TDs
@275 fantasy points (ppr)

Those are CeeDee Lambs numbers for the season if you extrapolate the 5 games he played with Dak. They are almost exactly what JJ put up. I know extrapolation is a dangerous game (especially with only 5 games of data) but he still put up 74 catches, over 1000 total yards, 6 total TDs, and over 200 fantasy points (finishing as WR23)...with Dalton, Gilbert, and DiNucci throwing to him for the majority of the season.
True, but if you extrapolate Dak's numbers from those same 5 games he was on pace to throw for 7000 passing yards, which obviously was not going to actually happen.

So yes, in the 5 games where Lamb played in the greatest 5 game QB passing yards stretch in NFL history he matched the output of what Jefferson did in a normal NFL offense.

Even Dak at his best will never put up passing volume at that rate again.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Vcize » Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:58 pm

On the Lamb discussion I know it won't matter in terms of their fantasy careers but it really rubbed me the wrong way when Lamb had an awful drop late in week 17 that probably knocked his team out of playoff contention and he ran back to the huddle laughing about it.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby joeday » Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:04 pm

Vcize wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:42 pm
joeday wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:49 pm
Sriracha wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:32 pm They're the same tier of prospect (Lamb, Jefferson).. however one of them has already proven he can put up a WR1 season and just broke the all time rookie receiving yardage record.

Can't imagine any world where someone would take Lamb over Jefferson right now. Maybe Lamb finishes higher, but odds are certainly not in his favor. Justin Jefferson is already in rarified air.
I gotta disagree with you here. Keep in mind I have the same number of shares in JJ and Lamb, so this is my completely unbiased opinion...

@90 catches
@1400 yards
@6 TDs
@275 fantasy points (ppr)

Those are CeeDee Lambs numbers for the season if you extrapolate the 5 games he played with Dak. They are almost exactly what JJ put up. I know extrapolation is a dangerous game (especially with only 5 games of data) but he still put up 74 catches, over 1000 total yards, 6 total TDs, and over 200 fantasy points (finishing as WR23)...with Dalton, Gilbert, and DiNucci throwing to him for the majority of the season.
True, but if you extrapolate Dak's numbers from those same 5 games he was on pace to throw for 7000 passing yards, which obviously was not going to actually happen.

So yes, in the 5 games where Lamb played in the greatest 5 game QB passing yards stretch in NFL history he matched the output of what Jefferson did in a normal NFL offense.

Even Dak at his best will never put up passing volume at that rate again.
So you don't think with Dak playing the whole year Lamb couldn't have gotten 16 more catches for 300ish more yards? You have to admit that losing Dak stunted Lamb's production. Just like if Cousins got hurt I am guessing I would say the same thing about JJ's production being stunted by Sean Mannion.
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1996 | 2005 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2017 – 🏆
1999 | 2000 | 2019 | 2020 – 🥈

14 team | 4 keepers | non ppr | est. 1996
QB –
RB – Christian McCaffrey | Josh Jacobs
WR – AJ Brown | CeeDee Lamb
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2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2020 – 🏆
2008 | 2012 | 2014 | 2019 – 🥈

12 team | 10 keepers | non ppr | est. 2001
QB – Joe Burrow
RB – Tony Pollard | Kenneth Walker III | Rhamondre Stevenson
WR – Justin Jefferson | Stefon Diggs | DK Metcalf | Tee Higgins | Jameson Williams
TE – Trey McBride

Overall 2024 Regular Season Record: 0 – 0

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby joeday » Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:05 pm

Vcize wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:58 pm On the Lamb discussion I know it won't matter in terms of their fantasy careers but it really rubbed me the wrong way when Lamb had an awful drop late in week 17 that probably knocked his team out of playoff contention and he ran back to the huddle laughing about it.
That is reading A LOT into something right there lol
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1996 | 2005 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2017 – 🏆
1999 | 2000 | 2019 | 2020 – 🥈

14 team | 4 keepers | non ppr | est. 1996
QB –
RB – Christian McCaffrey | Josh Jacobs
WR – AJ Brown | CeeDee Lamb
TE –

ROCKY MOUNTAIN MASTODONS (0 – 0)
2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2020 – 🏆
2008 | 2012 | 2014 | 2019 – 🥈

12 team | 10 keepers | non ppr | est. 2001
QB – Joe Burrow
RB – Tony Pollard | Kenneth Walker III | Rhamondre Stevenson
WR – Justin Jefferson | Stefon Diggs | DK Metcalf | Tee Higgins | Jameson Williams
TE – Trey McBride

Overall 2024 Regular Season Record: 0 – 0

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby broncohead » Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:17 pm

joeday wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:04 pm
Vcize wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:42 pm
joeday wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:49 pm

I gotta disagree with you here. Keep in mind I have the same number of shares in JJ and Lamb, so this is my completely unbiased opinion...

@90 catches
@1400 yards
@6 TDs
@275 fantasy points (ppr)

Those are CeeDee Lambs numbers for the season if you extrapolate the 5 games he played with Dak. They are almost exactly what JJ put up. I know extrapolation is a dangerous game (especially with only 5 games of data) but he still put up 74 catches, over 1000 total yards, 6 total TDs, and over 200 fantasy points (finishing as WR23)...with Dalton, Gilbert, and DiNucci throwing to him for the majority of the season.
True, but if you extrapolate Dak's numbers from those same 5 games he was on pace to throw for 7000 passing yards, which obviously was not going to actually happen.

So yes, in the 5 games where Lamb played in the greatest 5 game QB passing yards stretch in NFL history he matched the output of what Jefferson did in a normal NFL offense.

Even Dak at his best will never put up passing volume at that rate again.
So you don't think with Dak playing the whole year Lamb couldn't have gotten 16 more catches for 300ish more yards? You have to admit that losing Dak stunted Lamb's production. Just like if Cousins got hurt I am guessing I would say the same thing about JJ's production being stunted by Sean Mannion.
Dalton and Cousins are similar in talent at QB. Dak is far and away better than both imo. So going to Manion isn’t nearly as bad as going to Dalton.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby hoos89 » Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:20 am

Also Jefferson didn't start weeks 1 or 2. Let's extrapolate his 14 starts out to 90+/1500+/8 for a full season.

Lamb was on pace for comparable production to Jefferson in a 5 game sample with an offense that was on pace to SHATTER passing records. And he did it in the slot, frequently matched up against linebackers (literally uncovered on his biggest play of that stretch). Jefferson did it in a full season in spite of a low volume passing offense. And he played on the outside. Actually insane to argue those 5 games from Lamb are comparable to the 16 from Jefferson.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby cantguardjake » Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:52 am

Ice wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:26 pm
jordanzs wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:48 am Will there ever be a point in time where the Eagles look like geniuses for taking Reagor over Justin Jefferson?

And on the same note, will the Raiders ever look smart for taking Ruggs over the rest of the WRs?
No on Eagles. Reagor was a head scratch for me and still is. He does flash a little though. Jefferson was an easy choice over Reagor IMO.

Too soon on the Raiders IMO. Ruggs has tons of talent to be developed. He did catch 16 of his final 22 targets. It wouldn't surprise me if he makes the biggest jump next year. He really needs an off season.

These two were not as pro ready as Lamb or Jefferson. Most knew that I think.

Jefferson was 1 of 3 rookies to make the pro bowl. Young and CEH were the other 2.
You know you’ve had a terrible rookie season when a positive is that you caught 16 of your last 22 targets :lol:

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:29 am

hoos89 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:20 am Jefferson did it in a full season in spite of a low volume passing offense. And he played on the outside. Actually insane to argue those 5 games from Lamb are comparable to the 16 from Jefferson.
I was pleasantly surprised at how well Jefferson played at the line of scrimmage at the snap. He handled physical corners really well, occasionally putting them on roller skates. Young WRs sometimes take a couple years to develop that kind of release.

Good hand & arm movement as well as awareness.

Being a Vikings fan, I always temper my excitement for their rookies as I don't want my bias to ruin fantasy teams. Wish I'd let the Jefferson hype lead me this time. Have only one share of the young stallion.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Ice » Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:13 am

cantguardjake wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:52 am
Ice wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:26 pm
jordanzs wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:48 am Will there ever be a point in time where the Eagles look like geniuses for taking Reagor over Justin Jefferson?

And on the same note, will the Raiders ever look smart for taking Ruggs over the rest of the WRs?
No on Eagles. Reagor was a head scratch for me and still is. He does flash a little though. Jefferson was an easy choice over Reagor IMO.

Too soon on the Raiders IMO. Ruggs has tons of talent to be developed. He did catch 16 of his final 22 targets. It wouldn't surprise me if he makes the biggest jump next year. He really needs an off season.

These two were not as pro ready as Lamb or Jefferson. Most knew that I think.

Jefferson was 1 of 3 rookies to make the pro bowl. Young and CEH were the other 2.
You know you’ve had a terrible rookie season when a positive is that you caught 16 of your last 22 targets :lol:

Ruggs is a sell if you can get anything decent.
Says the voice of inexperience...... :wall:
Last edited by Ice on Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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