Selling Studs this Offseason

[saw061600]

Every lowball offer after lowball offer for Julio the last 3 years made me tell myself, screw it, I’ll just ride him until the end at those prices. Hmmm. Maybe they weren’t lowball offers after all? He’s not done but now I know I’m riding him until the end.

I moved Julio and Jakobi Meyers for Evans and Shepard week 12 this year to a team that had several players on bye week for wildcard playoff game week 13. Sometimes you don't have to give up vets for lottery picks; just move to a slightly less veteran vet lol.

[saw061600]

Studs I'm looking to sell:
Thielen (just got this year in a trade)
Henry
Carson
ARod
Cooper
Golladay

[Cameron Giles]

When it comes to top RB stars like CMC and Kamara, I never buy them. I love those guys, but buying at their peak means the only place for their value to go is down. I'd rather acquire a couple guys that have a lot of room to gain value.

Now, if I have a RB star like CMC & Kamara, I'm not too worried about holding them if I have a shot at the playoffs. I'll take the risk that they suddenly lose value be it from natural regression, injury, or just too many touches over a career.

If I'm a weak or rebuilding team, then yeah, I'll probably sell them while they're at max value.

Well, the thing about CMC right now is that there's possibly a nice buy window as there was for Kamara last year. You won't have to pay a king's ransom to get him and the upside is still there where he can launch you into a contender. He's only turning 25 next season. Granted, I have concerns about RBs on their 2nd contracts, but elite RBs are usually better at staying stable.

If I had a back like Antonio Gibson, I might see if someone would bite on a deal centered around him for CMC

[saw061600]

Tryin to decide if/when to move on from Kelce:

I’ve been an unlucky early out of the playoffs last two seasons. I have picks 2.2, 2.7, 3.5 and 3.10 in a 12 team SF, team in sig

I’m thinking trade Kelce and some late picks for a Fant/Hock/etc and some 1sts

Or hold it together for one more push, maybe sell him late or after this coming season

I would see if there are other ways to improve. Fant and picks is a huge production downgrade from Kelce.

Kelce is 31 and elite TEs can play at a high level into their mid 30s. This may be the last year to cash in on his peak value, but he is putting up WR1 numbers at TE which is a huge, huge advantage given the scarcity of the position and he still plays with Mahomes. Kelce would be WR4 with his points.

If you have a clear playoff team, then maybe you try one more year and see if you can make improvements elsewhere.

I explored selling Kelce multiple times, have another owner asking about him right now. He killed it in every format, even non PPR and he has done so for the past 3 years. Last year, Andrews was close. 2 years ago, Ertz was close. This year, nobody was really close. He's a consistent stud on a passing team with a QB that will improv (often to Kelce). If I moving him I'm going to need players and first round pick(s).

[Vcize]

I agree with most of what jenkins.math said.

Virtually everyone mentioned so far in this thread is going to have to be moved at a discount to be moved. Their sell window was 6 weeks ago. All of these kind of guys are at their peak value in season when owners want points to win championships, and at their lowest value in the offseason when owners want sexy young stud names to rosterbate to.

[saw061600]

I agree with most of what jenkins.math said.

Virtually everyone mentioned so far in this thread is going to have to be moved at a discount to be moved. Their sell window was 6 weeks ago. All of these kind of guys are at their peak value in season when owners want points to win championships, and at their lowest value in the offseason when owners want sexy young stud names to rosterbate to.

Yes but owners play different ways and some are always willing to grab vets. You never know until you send the offers. If nobody bites on the trades at or near value, screw it; keep your vets and try to win again this year.

[Jigga94]

I agree with most of what jenkins.math said.

Virtually everyone mentioned so far in this thread is going to have to be moved at a discount to be moved. Their sell window was 6 weeks ago. All of these kind of guys are at their peak value in season when owners want points to win championships, and at their lowest value in the offseason when owners want sexy young stud names to rosterbate to.

Nice word. May have to use that

[bjd5211]

I agree with most of what jenkins.math said.

Virtually everyone mentioned so far in this thread is going to have to be moved at a discount to be moved. Their sell window was 6 weeks ago. All of these kind of guys are at their peak value in season when owners want points to win championships, and at their lowest value in the offseason when owners want sexy young stud names to rosterbate to.

Nice word. May have to use that

https://youtu.be/bicRZ805fzc

[KCLep20]

I'd pay a mid 2nd for Julio. Is that offer too low and you'd rather ride him into the dirt? Probably, but depends on the makeup of the team and rebuild.

I also tried trading Julio this year once DK popped off and I was able to trade for AJB but didn’t even get offered a 2nd. At this point I’ll ride him another year and play him in bye weeks or when I have to sit DK because he’s going up against Ramsey. A mid 2nd is probably the lowest I’d sell him for, but in the end I’d probably make that trade.

[briank]

My reasoning behind selling CMC this offseason is because I don't believe he will ever have the same level of production he had in 2018 and 2019. People will be buying this offseason at his max value still with the belief that he will repeat those seasons. For me personally, I do not believe he will reach that level again (nor will the Panthers let him) hence me selling at a perceived max value. In other words, I think his value will go down once he starts playing again. Very unconventional thoughts behind his evaluation, but I'd rather sell at peak value than not on an RB who has touched the ball 400 times in 2019 & 2019 AND just suffered an injury that kept him out for a long duration of the season.

Yeah, you said that already, but why do you believe that? Again, his usage and production when he was on the field this year did not change at all.

Well, I did expand upon what I originally stated in my response to you. I don't have evidence because it's just a belief. There is no way Carolina will want to risk CMC getting injured again. He is the focal point of their offense. He is capable of winning them games on his own. When your super weapon goes down for a full season and your team crumbles, it's clear that you will do everything in your power to prevent that from happening again. CMC will still put up some great numbers and still get some great work...but I personally don't feel he will ever repeat the seasons he has had, hence lowering his perceived value. I would rather sell to someone now who believes CMC will have his 2019 season again, rather than sell next offseason after he declines from less production or suffers from an injury.

He got injured because his production didn't change at all this year. In fact, he got injured twice this season. That's my point.

So, because he's the focal point of their offense, they will reduce his role and not make him the focal point of their offense?

After missing 6 weeks, they gave him 28 touches. His usage doesn't fit your narrative.

You are assuming he was injured because of his usage. If that is true, why didn't he get injured last year? The year before? In reality, any player can get hurt on any play. There is no evidence whatsoever that these injuries are a product of too much usage.

I think teams realize that they need to run these guys into the ground during their first contract or two and move on. Even if he gets a slight decline in usage, he's the 1.01. I can understand trading him for a huge package, but I feel like trading him now is trading low and ultimately a mistake.

[Cameron Giles]

I agree with most of what jenkins.math said.

Virtually everyone mentioned so far in this thread is going to have to be moved at a discount to be moved. Their sell window was 6 weeks ago. All of these kind of guys are at their peak value in season when owners want points to win championships, and at their lowest value in the offseason when owners want sexy young stud names to rosterbate to.

It's a good point. Someone like Henry isn't going to fetch you a grand deal in the offseason, even though that doesn't mean you can't get a good deal for him.

It's just a matter of considering whether you want to trade an RB who can take you far in the season just so you can feel great that you have a roster of 22-23 year olds "for the next 10 years".

[McCafsteez]

Yeah, you said that already, but why do you believe that? Again, his usage and production when he was on the field this year did not change at all.

Well, I did expand upon what I originally stated in my response to you. I don't have evidence because it's just a belief. There is no way Carolina will want to risk CMC getting injured again. He is the focal point of their offense. He is capable of winning them games on his own. When your super weapon goes down for a full season and your team crumbles, it's clear that you will do everything in your power to prevent that from happening again. CMC will still put up some great numbers and still get some great work...but I personally don't feel he will ever repeat the seasons he has had, hence lowering his perceived value. I would rather sell to someone now who believes CMC will have his 2019 season again, rather than sell next offseason after he declines from less production or suffers from an injury.

He got injured because his production didn't change at all this year. In fact, he got injured twice this season. That's my point.

So, because he's the focal point of their offense, they will reduce his role and not make him the focal point of their offense?

After missing 6 weeks, they gave him 28 touches. His usage doesn't fit your narrative.

You are assuming he was injured because of his usage. If that is true, why didn't he get injured last year? The year before? In reality, any player can get hurt on any play. There is no evidence whatsoever that these injuries are a product of too much usage.

I think teams realize that they need to run these guys into the ground during their first contract or two and move on. Even if he gets a slight decline in usage, he's the 1.01. I can understand trading him for a huge package, but I feel like trading him now is trading low and ultimately a mistake.

Yes, I think usage is definitely correlated to injuries lol. The more work you get, the more chance of injury and the more ware and tear on the body. It would be foolish to believe the Panthers will let CMC touch the ball over 400 times next season. I told you, it's a very unorthodox view, but that is the way I feel. & yes, a team can still make you the focal point of the offense while giving you the ball less. After missing 6 weeks, they gave him 28 touches in which he was injured again. Going against your contract point...he is signed until 2025! That is 4-5 more seasons. CMC would literally die if they keep this type of workload.

[briank]

Well, I did expand upon what I originally stated in my response to you. I don't have evidence because it's just a belief. There is no way Carolina will want to risk CMC getting injured again. He is the focal point of their offense. He is capable of winning them games on his own. When your super weapon goes down for a full season and your team crumbles, it's clear that you will do everything in your power to prevent that from happening again. CMC will still put up some great numbers and still get some great work...but I personally don't feel he will ever repeat the seasons he has had, hence lowering his perceived value. I would rather sell to someone now who believes CMC will have his 2019 season again, rather than sell next offseason after he declines from less production or suffers from an injury.

He got injured because his production didn't change at all this year. In fact, he got injured twice this season. That's my point.

So, because he's the focal point of their offense, they will reduce his role and not make him the focal point of their offense?

After missing 6 weeks, they gave him 28 touches. His usage doesn't fit your narrative.

You are assuming he was injured because of his usage. If that is true, why didn't he get injured last year? The year before? In reality, any player can get hurt on any play. There is no evidence whatsoever that these injuries are a product of too much usage.

I think teams realize that they need to run these guys into the ground during their first contract or two and move on. Even if he gets a slight decline in usage, he's the 1.01. I can understand trading him for a huge package, but I feel like trading him now is trading low and ultimately a mistake.

Yes, I think usage is definitely correlated to injuries lol. The more work you get, the more chance of injury and the more ware and tear on the body. It would be foolish to believe the Panthers will let CMC touch the ball over 400 times next season. I told you, it's a very unorthodox view, but that is the way I feel. & yes, a team can still make you the focal point of the offense while giving you the ball less. After missing 6 weeks, they gave him 28 touches in which he was injured again. Going against your contract point...he is signed until 2025! That is 4-5 more seasons. CMC would literally die if they keep this type of workload.

That's pretty dramatic. Again, there is absolutely no proof that his workload caused those specific injuries. Yes, more work is more risk. You know what else comes with more work? More points. If you aren't worried about him not continuing to be the focal point, you shouldn't be selling him. Again, even if they take away some of the workload, he's still the locked and loaded 1.01. Using your logic, that would be even better for us dynasty owners if it keeps him healthy. Regardless of who ends up being right here, it's a win win and selling low is an awful idea. You keep suggesting there is no way they continue to give him that workload, but there has been actually no indication that will happen. You are working off a hunch while I am going off what we're seeing from the team. There's a very good chance this offense grows next year as well giving him more scoring opportunity. I'm buying low if I can and I would hold if I owned him anywhere. BTW, this is coming from an owner that rarely goes for the top running backs.

[Orenthal Shames]

So, because he's the focal point of their offense, they will reduce his role and not make him the focal point of their offense?

After missing 6 weeks, they gave him 28 touches. His usage doesn't fit your narrative.

You are assuming he was injured because of his usage. If that is true, why didn't he get injured last year? The year before? In reality, any player can get hurt on any play. There is no evidence whatsoever that these injuries are a product of too much usage.

I think teams realize that they need to run these guys into the ground during their first contract or two and move on. Even if he gets a slight decline in usage, he's the 1.01. I can understand trading him for a huge package, but I feel like trading him now is trading low and ultimately a mistake.

Yes, I think usage is definitely correlated to injuries lol. The more work you get, the more chance of injury and the more ware and tear on the body. It would be foolish to believe the Panthers will let CMC touch the ball over 400 times next season. I told you, it's a very unorthodox view, but that is the way I feel. & yes, a team can still make you the focal point of the offense while giving you the ball less. After missing 6 weeks, they gave him 28 touches in which he was injured again. Going against your contract point...he is signed until 2025! That is 4-5 more seasons. CMC would literally die if they keep this type of workload.

That's pretty dramatic. Again, there is absolutely no proof that his workload caused those specific injuries. Yes, more work is more risk. You know what else comes with more work? More points. If you aren't worried about him not continuing to be the focal point, you shouldn't be selling him. Again, even if they take away some of the workload, he's still the locked and loaded 1.01. Using your logic, that would be even better for us dynasty owners if it keeps him healthy. Regardless of who ends up being right here, it's a win win and selling low is an awful idea. You keep suggesting there is no way they continue to give him that workload, but there has been actually no indication that will happen. You are working off a hunch while I am going off what we're seeing from the team. There's a very good chance this offense grows next year as well giving him more scoring opportunity. I'm buying low if I can and I would hold if I owned him anywhere. BTW, this is coming from an owner that rarely goes for the top running backs.

I don't think CMC is the 1.01 in dynasty anymore. Kamara has shown he can not only get it done multiple ways, but doesn't need the insane worklaod to do so.

If the JT owner gave me Taylor+ for CMC, I'd snap my thumbs accepting.

[briank]

Yes, I think usage is definitely correlated to injuries lol. The more work you get, the more chance of injury and the more ware and tear on the body. It would be foolish to believe the Panthers will let CMC touch the ball over 400 times next season. I told you, it's a very unorthodox view, but that is the way I feel. & yes, a team can still make you the focal point of the offense while giving you the ball less. After missing 6 weeks, they gave him 28 touches in which he was injured again. Going against your contract point...he is signed until 2025! That is 4-5 more seasons. CMC would literally die if they keep this type of workload.

That's pretty dramatic. Again, there is absolutely no proof that his workload caused those specific injuries. Yes, more work is more risk. You know what else comes with more work? More points. If you aren't worried about him not continuing to be the focal point, you shouldn't be selling him. Again, even if they take away some of the workload, he's still the locked and loaded 1.01. Using your logic, that would be even better for us dynasty owners if it keeps him healthy. Regardless of who ends up being right here, it's a win win and selling low is an awful idea. You keep suggesting there is no way they continue to give him that workload, but there has been actually no indication that will happen. You are working off a hunch while I am going off what we're seeing from the team. There's a very good chance this offense grows next year as well giving him more scoring opportunity. I'm buying low if I can and I would hold if I owned him anywhere. BTW, this is coming from an owner that rarely goes for the top running backs.

I don't think CMC is the 1.01 in dynasty anymore. Kamara has shown he can not only get it done multiple ways, but doesn't need the insane worklaod to do so.

If the JT owner gave me Taylor+ for CMC, I'd snap my thumbs accepting.

I can’t imagine thinking Kamara is over CMC after seeing him without Brees. That is wild. This kind of thinking is why I’d buy low. Recency bias is strong.