Selling Studs this Offseason

[palevermilion]

Honestly, I think sometimes we're in too big of a rush to sell studs, because we care more about looking smart instead of winning leagues.

At some point, I don't care about my players trade value that much as long as I'm contending.

Can we get an amen?

Preach it! Plus, I've never really seen anybody in my leagues get a haul for a stud when they are actively shopping. Most owners are smart and know the person is trying to take advantage of them. The time to sell a stud is when the buyer comes to you unsolicited and is in clear overpay mode.

[Yarnith]

Zeke.

POS - The OL gets healthy again and they sign a few insurance OL too just incase.
NEG - I think DAL primarily addresses DEF in the draft. (they have to right?)
NEG - Dak comes back. (Here lies part of the issue) Dak likes his stats. I firmly believe he's the Russell Westbrook of the NFL. He likes to throw and run for his own TD's rather than handoff. He'll be tagged this year and he's going to look to pad those stats again. $$$
NEG - McCarthy. Bleh.

POS - Zeke is a big part of the passing game and has had better TD production as Dak has passed more.

I honestly dont see how Dak coming back is a Neg considering he's been Zekes QB while Zeke had a 2000yd and a 14td season with him.

[Anteaters]

I will move Michael Thomas before the draft. With his iffy QB situation, I think he could realistically drop from WR1-2 down to WR12-17 in production. He's not in line for a Julio type of decline, but I feel some regression is coming.
I would entertain offers for THenry, but wouldn't mind holding him for another strong year and help making the final 4.

[Pac_Eddy]

I would entertain offers for THenry, but wouldn't mind holding him for another strong year and help making the final 4.

Did you mean DHenry as in Derrick Henry, or are you still holding Travis Henry, the multi-talented Bills RB? That guy was fun.

[Anteaters]

I would entertain offers for THenry, but wouldn't mind holding him for another strong year and help making the final 4.

Did you mean DHenry as in Derrick Henry, or are you still holding Travis Henry, the multi-talented Bills RB? That guy was fun.

LMFAO!! Yeah, DHenry. I think my brain had a FF flashback.

[Ray Finkle]

Every lowball offer after lowball offer for Julio the last 3 years made me tell myself, screw it, I’ll just ride him until the end at those prices. Hmmm. Maybe they weren’t lowball offers after all? He’s not done but now I know I’m riding him until the end.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I'd pay a mid 2nd for Julio. Is that offer too low and you'd rather ride him into the dirt? Probably, but depends on the makeup of the team and rebuild.

[briank]

Who are the studs you are looking to sell this offseason and what type of value are you seeking in return?

I am looking to move:

Dalvin Cook
Derrick Henry
Amari Cooper

I just feel that all three of the players listed are at their highest value. For Cook and Henry, I am expecting a Sanders/Jacobs caliber type RB plus either an early first or a WR like McLaurin / AJB / Moore. For Cooper, I am going to try and milk out two firsts or a first plus a WR prospect such as Ruggs.

Lastly, I am going to openly shop Christian McCaffrey. I honestly don't believe he will be as elite as he was last season ever again. I know this was an injury ridden year for him, but now still may be the best time to sell as everyone is still a believer. I don't know, though...tough!

Who are you trying to sell?

I fully expected to come in here and say that I don't sell my studs, but I totally get selling those guys except McCaffrey. What is your reasoning? He has been extremely durable until this year. He was every bit as dominant this year when he was on the field. I also believe he has been held out because the team wasn't playing for anything. I fully expect he would have played more this year had the Panthers been more competitive. Having said all that, I don't own him anywhere, but maybe now is the time.

[McCafsteez]

Who are the studs you are looking to sell this offseason and what type of value are you seeking in return?

I am looking to move:

Dalvin Cook
Derrick Henry
Amari Cooper

I just feel that all three of the players listed are at their highest value. For Cook and Henry, I am expecting a Sanders/Jacobs caliber type RB plus either an early first or a WR like McLaurin / AJB / Moore. For Cooper, I am going to try and milk out two firsts or a first plus a WR prospect such as Ruggs.

Lastly, I am going to openly shop Christian McCaffrey. I honestly don't believe he will be as elite as he was last season ever again. I know this was an injury ridden year for him, but now still may be the best time to sell as everyone is still a believer. I don't know, though...tough!

Who are you trying to sell?

I fully expected to come in here and say that I don't sell my studs, but I totally get selling those guys except McCaffrey. What is your reasoning? He has been extremely durable until this year. He was every bit as dominant this year when he was on the field. I also believe he has been held out because the team wasn't playing for anything. I fully expect he would have played more this year had the Panthers been more competitive. Having said all that, I don't own him anywhere, but maybe now is the time.

My reasoning behind selling CMC this offseason is because I don't believe he will ever have the same level of production he had in 2018 and 2019. People will be buying this offseason at his max value still with the belief that he will repeat those seasons. For me personally, I do not believe he will reach that level again (nor will the Panthers let him) hence me selling at a perceived max value. In other words, I think his value will go down once he starts playing again. Very unconventional thoughts behind his evaluation, but I'd rather sell at peak value than not on an RB who has touched the ball 400 times in 2019 & 2019 AND just suffered an injury that kept him out for a long duration of the season.

[Cameron Giles]

My reasoning behind selling CMC this offseason is because I don't believe he will ever have the same level of production he had in 2018 and 2019. People will be buying this offseason at his max value still with the belief that he will repeat those seasons. For me personally, I do not believe he will reach that level again (nor will the Panthers let him) hence me selling at a perceived max value. In other words, I think his value will go down once he starts playing again. Very unconventional thoughts behind his evaluation, but I'd rather sell at peak value than not on an RB who has touched the ball 400 times in 2019 & 2019 AND just suffered an injury that kept him out for a long duration of the season.

His ADP will remain high, but I don't think you'll be seeing a lot of people buying CMC at peak value. This offseason won't be a seller-friendly market, but it will be buyer-friendly.

It's possible the touches scale back some, but even if he's at 85-90% of his usage, he's still easily an elite RB1.

If you're contending, I don't know what you can get for CMC that will be more useful than that. His floor is too high and his upside is league winner.

[Pac_Eddy]

When it comes to top RB stars like CMC and Kamara, I never buy them. I love those guys, but buying at their peak means the only place for their value to go is down. I'd rather acquire a couple guys that have a lot of room to gain value.

Now, if I have a RB star like CMC & Kamara, I'm not too worried about holding them if I have a shot at the playoffs. I'll take the risk that they suddenly lose value be it from natural regression, injury, or just too many touches over a career.

If I'm a weak or rebuilding team, then yeah, I'll probably sell them while they're at max value.

[jenkins.math]

There are multiple problems with selling studs at peak value:
First, there may not be a team in your league with enough assets to make what you would consider a fair trade. That isn't even taking into account does that player even make sense for their team. Usually the team with the most young assets/picks is one that is rebuilding. Their team may not be ready to make the leap quite yet. It's not easy to find a team with the assets to do it.

Secondly, most hold on a year too long when they want to sell their stud. CMC won't fetch the same price this offseason that he would have last offseason. Same with Michael Thomas. Same with Lamar. Same with any player that has this career year where they dominate and then regress to the mean. Your sell at peak value window has already shut.

Third, you have to be realistic on what you can actually get for the player. I see all the time on here how "stud x is worth 3 firsts or 2 early firsts and a young proven player" but I can't recall a player ever getting moved in any league for a massive haul like that. It's just so rare but gets thrown around on here like they happen all the time.

Lastly, and I honestly think this is the biggest issue, you have to have the stones to actually sell that player while they are on top. Most do not and choose to follow the crowd, which isn't wrong, but if you're a "sell for peak value" then you have to be willing to part with prime assets. I try and sell anytime a player reaches that rare air of being the top 2 or 3 at their position if I can get a trade that is paying that price and makes sense. I don't own DK Metcalf, but if I did he would be a prime candidate this year for me to sell. There just isn't anywhere for his value to go but down, but that would be going against the grain because mention selling DK and its "that is the guy you build around, why would you trade him etc".

[briank]

Who are the studs you are looking to sell this offseason and what type of value are you seeking in return?

I am looking to move:

Dalvin Cook
Derrick Henry
Amari Cooper

I just feel that all three of the players listed are at their highest value. For Cook and Henry, I am expecting a Sanders/Jacobs caliber type RB plus either an early first or a WR like McLaurin / AJB / Moore. For Cooper, I am going to try and milk out two firsts or a first plus a WR prospect such as Ruggs.

Lastly, I am going to openly shop Christian McCaffrey. I honestly don't believe he will be as elite as he was last season ever again. I know this was an injury ridden year for him, but now still may be the best time to sell as everyone is still a believer. I don't know, though...tough!

Who are you trying to sell?

I fully expected to come in here and say that I don't sell my studs, but I totally get selling those guys except McCaffrey. What is your reasoning? He has been extremely durable until this year. He was every bit as dominant this year when he was on the field. I also believe he has been held out because the team wasn't playing for anything. I fully expect he would have played more this year had the Panthers been more competitive. Having said all that, I don't own him anywhere, but maybe now is the time.

My reasoning behind selling CMC this offseason is because I don't believe he will ever have the same level of production he had in 2018 and 2019. People will be buying this offseason at his max value still with the belief that he will repeat those seasons. For me personally, I do not believe he will reach that level again (nor will the Panthers let him) hence me selling at a perceived max value. In other words, I think his value will go down once he starts playing again. Very unconventional thoughts behind his evaluation, but I'd rather sell at peak value than not on an RB who has touched the ball 400 times in 2019 & 2019 AND just suffered an injury that kept him out for a long duration of the season.

Yeah, you said that already, but why do you believe that? Again, his usage and production when he was on the field this year did not change at all.

[Mjvb5]

There are multiple problems with selling studs at peak value:
First, there may not be a team in your league with enough assets to make what you would consider a fair trade. That isn't even taking into account does that player even make sense for their team. Usually the team with the most young assets/picks is one that is rebuilding. Their team may not be ready to make the leap quite yet. It's not easy to find a team with the assets to do it.

Secondly, most hold on a year too long when they want to sell their stud. CMC won't fetch the same price this offseason that he would have last offseason. Same with Michael Thomas. Same with Lamar. Same with any player that has this career year where they dominate and then regress to the mean. Your sell at peak value window has already shut.

Third, you have to be realistic on what you can actually get for the player. I see all the time on here how "stud x is worth 3 firsts or 2 early firsts and a young proven player" but I can't recall a player ever getting moved in any league for a massive haul like that. It's just so rare but gets thrown around on here like they happen all the time.

Lastly, and I honestly think this is the biggest issue, you have to have the stones to actually sell that player while they are on top. Most do not and choose to follow the crowd, which isn't wrong, but if you're a "sell for peak value" then you have to be willing to part with prime assets. I try and sell anytime a player reaches that rare air of being the top 2 or 3 at their position if I can get a trade that is paying that price and makes sense. I don't own DK Metcalf, but if I did he would be a prime candidate this year for me to sell. There just isn't anywhere for his value to go but down, but that would be going against the grain because mention selling DK and its "that is the guy you build around, why would you trade him etc".

Yup almost every time I see a stud get moved its for a s
Lesser stud or a young guy looking special

[McCafsteez]

I fully expected to come in here and say that I don't sell my studs, but I totally get selling those guys except McCaffrey. What is your reasoning? He has been extremely durable until this year. He was every bit as dominant this year when he was on the field. I also believe he has been held out because the team wasn't playing for anything. I fully expect he would have played more this year had the Panthers been more competitive. Having said all that, I don't own him anywhere, but maybe now is the time.

My reasoning behind selling CMC this offseason is because I don't believe he will ever have the same level of production he had in 2018 and 2019. People will be buying this offseason at his max value still with the belief that he will repeat those seasons. For me personally, I do not believe he will reach that level again (nor will the Panthers let him) hence me selling at a perceived max value. In other words, I think his value will go down once he starts playing again. Very unconventional thoughts behind his evaluation, but I'd rather sell at peak value than not on an RB who has touched the ball 400 times in 2019 & 2019 AND just suffered an injury that kept him out for a long duration of the season.

Yeah, you said that already, but why do you believe that? Again, his usage and production when he was on the field this year did not change at all.

Well, I did expand upon what I originally stated in my response to you. I don't have evidence because it's just a belief. There is no way Carolina will want to risk CMC getting injured again. He is the focal point of their offense. He is capable of winning them games on his own. When your super weapon goes down for a full season and your team crumbles, it's clear that you will do everything in your power to prevent that from happening again. CMC will still put up some great numbers and still get some great work...but I personally don't feel he will ever repeat the seasons he has had, hence lowering his perceived value. I would rather sell to someone now who believes CMC will have his 2019 season again, rather than sell next offseason after he declines from less production or suffers from an injury.

He got injured because his production didn't change at all this year. In fact, he got injured twice this season. That's my point.