WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

[AussieMate]

At this point I'd rather have Chase, Rondale, Devonta, Bateman ahead of him. He's right before the Waddle tier for me.

Agree except Rondale--so probably 1.7-1.10 depending on QB settings

What do you have against Rondale?

Personally I still like Rondale but generally it's just as simple as his size that worries most people. He's got a lot going for him that being thick and fast/agile but has there been a successful receiver at his size?

Edit forgot to mention his injuries

[KingsKing]

Steve Smith and Antonio Brown come to mind, Marquise Brown is about the same size too. I'm not sure he has the inner dog in him that AB and Smith had.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

* Diggs hit his 3rd 1k yard season which will bump up the 47-56 stud percentage by a few points [from 31% to about 34%]. I'll have to comb through and check if any other players have done anything to change their status.
* Mims has to play this week to reach the 9 games minimum requirement.
* Jeudy's catch percentage is abysmal (44.3%). Even worse than Corey Colemans. There is hope though. Rookie year catch percentages with solid Receiving YPG, we have Greg Jennings @ 43.3%, John Brown @ 47.1%, Robert Woods @ 47.1%. A few other older but productive players in that range as well such as Eddie Kennison and Frank Sanders. So not ideal, but not a death sentence either.


Update For Week 16


67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Justin Jefferson [84]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Brandon Aiyuk [62]
Tee Higgins [60]
CeeDee Lamb [59]

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
31% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Chase Claypool [51]
Jerry Jeudy [47]

--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-22% Good or better

Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
.
.
.
Bryan Edwards [12]
.
Van Jefferson [11]

__________________________________________________

*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample. Minimum of 9 games played.
__________________________________________________

[cantguardjake]

Nice work DD.

Higgins the only surprise there for me, I thought he was just a contested catch warrior but he’s so much more, he looks great.

Ruggs and Raegor were fairly obviously being over drafted and over ranked given - but there are a million threads on this already.

Keen to see how the results look after week 17.

[TB3falcons]

Really don't understand why the Steelers have scaled Claypool back so much. Then again, their offense had been in completely disarray for a few weeks until the 2nd half this past week. Curious what the situation will be like next year.

[TheBelgian]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

[Jigga94]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

In theory, 0-1 studs. 1-3 would be a "good" WR. My money would be on Mims and Pittman to be good with Ruggs, Reagor and Shenault as other possibilities

[bjd5211]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

Laviska was my favorite out of this group before the season, and now after having maybe the best season out of all of them AND having Trevor Lawrence most likely coming to town, he's easily my pick.

[Sriracha]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

Stud candidates = bold
Good candidates = italic

It is kind of interesting that despite these WR's being separated by only a few receiving yards per game; the "stud" candidates are mostly clustered at the top.

[Mjvb5]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

Ywah but that's several years of high end receiver production which is much less likely than you'd expect from a statistical standpointb

[cantguardjake]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

In theory, 0-1 studs. 1-3 would be a "good" WR. My money would be on Mims and Pittman to be good with Ruggs, Reagor and Shenault as other possibilities

Mims a chance at stud, Shenault a chance to be good - the rest are roster cloggers.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

No not quite. I didn’t list all rookies. This is just the top of the list plus some relevant names added on. Any given year there are typically around 20-30 rookies that qualify for the 9 games but don’t meet the 47 ypg threshold. So anywhere from 1-3 studs realistically from the under 47 group, and I suppose double that for the “good or better” number. So optimistically 3 studs and 3 good players could theoretically emerge, but I think that would be on the high end range of outcomes (Would equate to 10% stud and 20% good or better rates). I’ll double check all the numbers after the season.

[TheBelgian]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

No not quite. I didn’t list all rookies. This is just the top of the list plus some relevant names added on. Any given year there are typically around 20-30 rookies that qualify for the 9 games but don’t meet the 47 ypg threshold. So anywhere from 1-3 studs realistically from the under 47 group, and I suppose double that for the “good or better” number. So optimistically 3 studs and 3 good players could theoretically emerge, but I think that would be on the high end range of outcomes (Would equate to 10% stud and 20% good or better rates). I’ll double check all the numbers after the season.

Got it. I appreciate all the time you’ve put into something like this as it is a tremendous help to those who pay attention. I own Higgins and in past years I would have sold high, but with the data that you’re sharing I may be holding as he’s likely to continue his play.

[dustyroads]

Really don't understand why the Steelers have scaled Claypool back so much. Then again, their offense had been in completely disarray for a few weeks until the 2nd half this past week. Curious what the situation will be like next year.

Ben’s deep ball just hasn’t really been there, especially as the season has gone on. Every once in a while he throws a dime, but doesn’t seem as consistent as it used to be. Bit of a chicken or the egg; but I’d say they are scheming towards this resulting in his lowest yards per attempt ever, and less Claypool screaming down the sidelines.

[Chwf3rd]

In theory, there will be 1 stud out of this group?


Denzel Mims [42]
Laviska Shenault [40]
Michael Pittman [39]
Jalen Reagor [38]
Darnell Mooney [35]
Henry Ruggs [34]
Tyron Johnson [33]
Gabriel Davis [32]
KJ Hamler [29]
Donovan Peoples-Jones [26]
Quintez Cephus [24]
Collin Johnson [19]
Bryan Edwards [12]
Van Jefferson [11]

If you factor in Viska’s rushing yards and/or remove the game where he left after the first series I think he’d be in the tier above