2020 Running Back Report

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
nathanq42
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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby nathanq42 » Sun May 31, 2020 7:06 pm

Hey DD how would you personally rank the RBs this year, knowing the results of your model but having also done you own scouting and taking situation into consideration?
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun May 31, 2020 8:23 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sun May 31, 2020 5:26 pm First, this is incredibly thorough and detailed. Great job.

Second, and I think most importantly, I absolutely think you've done the right thing by not adjusting the model again to find a way to include Jacobs (and Sanders) as hits. No model should hit 100% of the time; if it does, it's almost certainly descriptive rather than predictive, and I imagine predictive is what you're going for.

This brings me to my main question for you, DD. I suspect there are many players taking CEH at the 1.01 this year who, if you told them he would never post a 1000 yard rushing season, would go ahead and pull the trigger anyway, because of the receiving upside. My question for you is this: in an NFL where an increasing proportion of RB scoring comes from their receiving workload, and we've seen multiple RB1s who not only didn't hit 1000 yards, but didn't even really come close, how relevant is it to assess these guys based on the likelihood that they rush for 1000 yards? Is this something that you've considered? Have you thought about/attempted to model receiving production? I imagine it's really difficult as some college offenses just don't use their RBs in the passing game that way.
Glad you enjoyed it. As previously stated, the only person in the history of the report to be retroactively included (of players entering the league since it's inception, i.e. from 2015 on) from an adjustment in criteria was CMC. And even then it wasn't done with the intention of adding CMC, it stemmed from my work with Bell and Rice. CMC by chance just so happened to fit the same criteria. Whether you believe that or not is up to you. If I was making a concerted effort to retrofit players each year, well... not only would it look drastically different than it does now, but the entire thing would be entirely useless like you said.

As for your question about receiving workload, yes I probably have tried something like that in the past (you can see the fruit of my efforts with the pass catching tier), but no I have not recently. I probably should try again now that I have a ton more data then I did when I started out. I suspect I won't have much better results though.
I asked this on the first or second page. Basically the "PPR" backs don't have enough of a unique tangible profile to be modeled.
Thanks, this is pretty much it.

edit: If there is a way to do it, it's probably through more advanced analytics. I use the playeprofiler database which is pretty basic for incoming rookies. I wouldn't even know where to find more in depth numbers for the college players. If anyone has any ideas feel free to let me know.


In response to your statement "how relevant is it to assess these guys based on the likelihood that they rush for 1000 yards?" Judging from the players it identifies, I'd say it's very relevant? It's the only way that I've found to get a hit rate that is usable and actionable, in my opinion anyway. At the end of the day, I suppose it's not really up to me to decide how relevant it is. Some people may find it incredibly useful and others may not.

nathanq42 wrote: Sun May 31, 2020 7:06 pm Hey DD how would you personally rank the RBs this year, knowing the results of your model but having also done you own scouting and taking situation into consideration?
Spicy Question. My opinion seems to change daily because they're all so close. I feel really good about Taylor and Akers, they're my 1-2. Subconsciously, Akers might even be my 1. I think I said this before but I think he's got the best skillset in this entire RB class. People project CEH to catch a ton of balls but I think Akers will too. I guess the concern with Akers is we haven't really seen what he looks like on a functioning offense. On the other hand, Taylor has an absolutely insane profile that is hard to pass up on. Oddly enough, I wasn't able to draft Taylor anywhere this year. I guess CEH would be 3rd because of skillset and landing spot, however he makes me nervous and I'd be looking to flip him if I owned him anywhere. I think KC should have drafted Swift if they wanted a RB that was a plus in the receiving game. The rest are kind of hard to rank. I feel like I have to have Swift 4th because of his receiving upside and floor and overall talent level. Dobbins and Dillon, ugh that is tough. A gun to my head, I think I have to go Dillon. I like Dobbins but there's just too many question marks. Dillon has shortcomings, but I feel like I know more about Dillon than I do about Dobbins. With Dobbins the weight is kind of a concern in that he plays like a big guy but he's not. I question how refined he is in the passing game. Additionally, while Baltimore is a great landing spot, Ingram has been playing well and the chemistry he's displayed with that team is off the charts. Ingram is also signed through 2021 and it's just hard to imagine that team benching Ingram if he's playing well (which, he should in that offense) in favor of Dobbins. All that said, if people have Dobbins ranked ahead of basically any RB I just listed I can't argue because I do like him. Tomorrow I could feel completely different about them but that's how I'm feeling right now.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Ice » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:54 pm

Sounds like a very small Limb you're walking out on.... Top 4-5 RB's are all close enough it's understandable.

My take in ppr.
CEH

Swift
Dobbins
Taylor
Akers
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:03 am

Just wanted to make a small update before next year;

- I was struggling to come up with comps for Dobbins and Akers. After some reflection and watching them in the NFL, Dobbins looks a lot like Ray Rice. I still can't come up with a good one for Akers, he just is really unique, but I think a better comp than what I listed would be Dalvin Cook. Both have kind of an unremarkable running style but a knack for making people miss.

- It's actually highly annoying that Foreman suffered the Achilles injury, Penny suffered the ACL, and Guice suffered injuries and strangled a woman. Regardless of what anyone might think or say, I'd love nothing more than to simply get some good clean data. It's really hard to tell if/why any of these players busted, if that ends up being the case for all 3. I think of the 3, Penny has been given the most fair shot, he was just beaten out by Carson for 2 full years. All RB breakouts for this model started within the first 4 years. Penny still has a chance, but this is already Foremans 4th year and 2021 will be Guice's 4th year. I think it's safe to say both Foreman and Guice can be labeled as busts until further notice, with Penny still getting 1 more year to prove himself. I still believe a healthy and un-jailed Guice would have easily been a hit but I guess we'll never know for sure. Penny could be an interesting buy-low going into next season with Carson being a UFA.

- Double checking the data, James Robinson was right on the outer edges of the Outliers group. I can't claim victory, obviously, but just thought it was an interesting note. I was about to give up on that group altogether but maybe I am onto something there. Hard to tell. Who knows, maybe Royce Freeman will have a solid year at some point!

- Overall this class looks really good. I think the "big 5" (JT, Akers, CEH, Swift, Dobbins) have all looked really solid. I just love Akers so much. He's not even being used as a receiver much yet and imo that may be his best attribute. By most accounts, the 2021 class appears to be very hit or miss. Should be interesting to evaluate them next year.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Tennisbuck » Sun Dec 27, 2020 9:30 pm

Dillon looked on point tonight. He has the power and agility to be special.
QB: Jimmy G,Mahomes, Andy Dalton, Brisset, and Stidham
RB: Zeke, Saquan, Dalvin Cook, Guice, J.Hill, and Damien Harris
WR: Diggs, DJ Moore, JuJu, Sutton, Fuller, Paris
TE:Hunter Henry, Irv Smith, Herndon

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby jimmychoi » Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:04 pm

Tennisbuck wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 9:30 pm Dillon looked on point tonight. He has the power and agility to be special.
It was just one game, but I’m intrigued none the less.

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Re: 2020 Running Back Report

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:45 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 8:53 pm
Jonathan Taylor

Comps
High – Ladanian Tomlinson.
Image


I’m wrong about everything. Let me enjoy this for a week lol.

Edit: I guess that’s an old tweet. Here’s the update
Taylor matched an NFL record with his eighth consecutive game with 100 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown, joining LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Lydell Mitchell (1975-1976) as the only players to accomplish the feat (since scrimmage yards were kept track of in 1950).


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