2021 Rookie Tiers

[cantguardjake]

I like that the question about JaMarr Chase has been brought up, and I agree, his 1 big season in a great offense, followed by his cowardly sitting on the sidelines does raise valid questions. As does Smith's ridiculous low BMI.

With that said, what is the expectation of Chase and Smith ceiling and floor? Is their potential high ceiling, or high floor worth being ranked over Kyle Pitts? Pitts has everything from college production, NFL body, likely top half of NFL 1st round capital, and position scarcity where if he hits his potential, you are talking a huge positional advatage for years.

And don't turn this into a boring "I don't draft TEs high in Round 1" discussion. Pitts is already smack in the middle of fantasy drafts round 1. The only question is how high of a pick is he worth.

Not wanting to risk getting COVID by playing a sport without compensation is cowardly? Seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Sure that's the excuse, but it's far from the reason. In Chase's case, why risk poor film when he already has high draft capital.

In the words of Rosehaus;
“I don’t think that there is much debate that for guys that are willing to brave the health risks to play football and aren’t necessarily top picks, playing this year will help,” said Rosenhaus.

So if your not brave, then ???

Look, we can mix words all we want, these players were certainly concerned, but they certainly all weren't entirely concerned due to COVID.

You have completely misconstrued that Rosenhaus quote lol

[jenkins.math]

It's not much different than the countless players who transfer in college and have sit out a year either, they're essentially just transferring to the NFL instead of a new school.

Its extremely different. Guys that transfer aren't allowed to play but they are still with their new team practicing, lifting, in the meetings, getting drill work, running scout team, etc. They literally do everything an eligible player does except suit up on Saturday. Chase left LSU entirely and I assume the other top prospects did as well.

Chase and the rest of the opt outs have been off doing their own thing (i assume with a team of individual coaches and trainers) but I highly doubt they have gone through any sort of physical contact like being tackled this year like he would have in practice. You can't duplicate game speed and game action. Its also much easier to push yourself when you are in a big team environment than out on your own like that. I don't see it being a positive for any of their developments.

[bjd5211]

It's not much different than the countless players who transfer in college and have sit out a year either, they're essentially just transferring to the NFL instead of a new school.

Its extremely different. Guys that transfer aren't allowed to play but they are still with their new team practicing, lifting, in the meetings, getting drill work, running scout team, etc. They literally do everything an eligible player does except suit up on Saturday. Chase left LSU entirely and I assume the other top prospects did as well.

Chase and the rest of the opt outs have been off doing their own thing (i assume with a team of individual coaches and trainers) but I highly doubt they have gone through any sort of physical contact like being tackled this year like he would have in practice. You can't duplicate game speed and game action. Its also much easier to push yourself when you are in a big team environment than out on your own like that. I don't see it being a positive for any of their developments.

That would go for transfers in practice too. The difference between training with the team and with personal trainers and independent position coaches is that in college the coaches focus will be on getting the player to learn the scheme and playbook, with less individual attention and development. The opt outs working with professional trainers though have the ability to focus purely on developing their bodies and individual skill sets, while not being under any NCAA restrictions of practice time or time they can spend with their coaches.

[jenkins.math]

It's not much different than the countless players who transfer in college and have sit out a year either, they're essentially just transferring to the NFL instead of a new school.

Its extremely different. Guys that transfer aren't allowed to play but they are still with their new team practicing, lifting, in the meetings, getting drill work, running scout team, etc. They literally do everything an eligible player does except suit up on Saturday. Chase left LSU entirely and I assume the other top prospects did as well.

Chase and the rest of the opt outs have been off doing their own thing (i assume with a team of individual coaches and trainers) but I highly doubt they have gone through any sort of physical contact like being tackled this year like he would have in practice. You can't duplicate game speed and game action. Its also much easier to push yourself when you are in a big team environment than out on your own like that. I don't see it being a positive for any of their developments.

That would go for transfers in practice too. The difference between training with the team and with personal trainers and independent position coaches is that in college the coaches focus will be on getting the player to learn the scheme and playbook, with less individual attention and development. The opt outs working with professional trainers though have the ability to focus purely on developing their bodies and individual skill sets, while not being under any NCAA restrictions of practice time or time they can spend with their coaches.

Sure but the transfers are at least getting practice reps, simulating game action, 7 on 7, 11 on 11, full pads, etc. I doubt Chase has done much of that and if he has I doubt the competition he has faced is better than what he would have faced at LSU in practice. You've got guys competing for playing time that force you to elevate your game. Chase hasn't had that or had to deal with any pressure whatsoever this year. It takes a special type of player not to take their foot off the gas in the circumstance these opt outs found themselves in.

Not to mention he is the boss now. I assume his trainers/coaches are set up through whoever his agent is. Well Chase is the boss and they all work for him and not the other way around. Does he have people really pushing him or is he surrounded by guys that say its "good enough" because they don't want to get fired? If he loafs at LSU there are consequences and scouts will be told by coaches. If he loafs through workouts, his agents are going to relay that info because they in turn lose money.

There are just a lot of things I don't like about it and that is just what I see in terms of player development. I haven't even touched on the missed opportunity for increased leadership and team accountability he gave up this season by opting out. I think he is an elite talent, but I do have concerns about him and how this opt out will affect him.

[GregOfTheDead]

I see Najee Harris being the consensus 1.1 if/when he gets drafted by the Steelers.

And I agree with devonta smith being absolutely worthy of the same tier as chase. Smith has certainly proven he’s got the goods over these years. Personally, Smith is my top fantasy rookie WR pre draft.

[remedy29]

Ja'Marr Chase (and the other opt outs) is a coward because he chose his health and future over continuing to subject himself to exploitation from a corrupt industry that no longer has anything to offer him, and can do nothing but hurt his draft stock and future earnings? Sounds more like intelligence to me, and if you have a problem with it you might as well start looking for a new hobby, because it's going to become far more common in the future unless the NCAA and these Universities make some significant changes to how they treat these athletes. An athletic scholarship is no longer adequate compensation for the amount of revenue NFL level talents generate for the schools and NCAA.

This is an interesting, and debatable topic, worthy of a separate thread
JaMarr Chase could not improve his stats in 2020 vs 2019 everyone knows that. Doesn't mean his reduced stats would degrade his value...but it might have (that's the coward part).
There could be a whole lengthy debate about college athletics and the benefit of college football. Fact is though, there is no other platform to showcase amateur athletes. Stud athletes probably do not need college football. The other 99% of college athletes do.

If it were so easy, there would be a separate football program to replace the NCAA football. But if you think that is possible, your oblivious to what NCAA football means across the country.

COVID was an excuse to opt out. I think some of the Covid opt out athletes will degrade their draft stock. In future years, do you think it will be looked positively on athletes who choose not to compete?

[ThunderTung]

Ja'Marr Chase (and the other opt outs) is a coward because he chose his health and future over continuing to subject himself to exploitation from a corrupt industry that no longer has anything to offer him, and can do nothing but hurt his draft stock and future earnings? Sounds more like intelligence to me, and if you have a problem with it you might as well start looking for a new hobby, because it's going to become far more common in the future unless the NCAA and these Universities make some significant changes to how they treat these athletes. An athletic scholarship is no longer adequate compensation for the amount of revenue NFL level talents generate for the schools and NCAA.

This is an interesting, and debatable topic, worthy of a separate thread
JaMarr Chase could not improve his stats in 2020 vs 2019 everyone knows that. Doesn't mean his reduced stats would degrade his value...but it might have (that's the coward part).
There could be a whole lengthy debate about college athletics and the benefit of college football. Fact is though, there is no other platform to showcase amateur athletes. Stud athletes probably do not need college football. The other 99% of college athletes do.

If it were so easy, there would be a separate football program to replace the NCAA football. But if you think that is possible, your oblivious to what NCAA football means across the country.

COVID was an excuse to opt out. I think some of the Covid opt out athletes will degrade their draft stock. In future years, do you think it will be looked positively on athletes who choose not to compete?

I think the XFL was a perfect opportunity to explore other options rather than college to develop young athletes out of high school. Unfortunately the timing was awful and they couldn't survive during covid. I hope we get a relaunch of the XFL when the world gets back to normalcy. We don't need to replace the NCAA, but giving alternatives would put pressure on them to relax a little on their ridicoulous rules and hopefully would create a less predatory system to guide these talented young men to the league we all love

[cantguardjake]

I see Najee Harris being the consensus 1.1 if/when he gets drafted by the Steelers.

And I agree with devonta smith being absolutely worthy of the same tier as chase. Smith has certainly proven he’s got the goods over these years. Personally, Smith is my top fantasy rookie WR pre draft.

Najee and Smith aren’t close to Chase IMO.

Not sure why people put so much stock in them going back to school and beating up on gutted college teams. Najee is going to be 23 by the time he is even drafted.

Smith has great hands but the rest of his game is fairly vanilla, from what I saw he caught a lot of screens. He’s definitely undersized but nowhere near as twitchy as someone like Diggs.

[broncohead]

Can't argue with you here. I like Javonte a fair amount. I'm just wary of players we need some sort of argument/narrative (whether that be draft capital/landing spot) for moving up into Tier 1 vs. players we've had as studs without any of that narrative worked in.

I take more stock into draft capital than pre-draft ranking. A player who falls in the actual draft should see their FF ranking drop as well. Players who go higher than expected should rise.

Maybe, maybe not. Of course a dramatic fall in the draft for a highly touted prospect is worrisome, but we've seen fantasy studs either fall in the NFL draft or land in undesirable landing spots that led them to (wrongly) fall in rookie drafts. DK and AJB are recent prime examples. We've also seen the opposite, where players like N'Keal Harry and Soni Michel (plenty of 1st/2nd round WRs to add here as well) were drafted highly in the NFL draft and didn't pan out. These aren't the necessarily the best examples (in terms of the tier discussion) to compare with Javonte and how his draft stock pre/post combine and NFL draft will change, but demonstrate how the NFL scouts and GMs aren't necessarily getting these things right either.

I'm not arguing that draft capital doesn't matter, because for the most part it clearly does, but that I'd rather buy into a player we have to make arguments against being in the top tier than a player we have to make arguments for being in the top tier.

I’m confident that NFL teams do more due diligence than the FF community. I’m also convinced that if the FF community had to draft prior to the NFL draft, NFL teams would have a significantly higher hit rate on prospects. Does the NFL get it wrong? Sure, but the FF community only knows a small fraction of what NFL teams know about prospects.

[gateway400]

I love this thread! I am in a superflex with the top 4 picks in the 1st & 2nd rounds. My plan was to take Lawrence, Fields, Chase, & Etienne! The more video and research I do the more I realize Lawrence is the only for sure pick I am making. Landing spots are going to make a difference. If Harris goes to the Steelers...I feel like I'd take him over Etienne. If Chase goes to the Bengals I'm definitely taking him regardless of where Smith lands. However, if Smith lands in Green Bay I feel like I might take him. There are so many questions at this time I can't decide!

My current thoughts:
Tier 1
LAWRENCE (only transcendent talent in this draft IMO)
Tier 2-Tier 4 = Alot depends on combine & landing spots!

[broncohead]

I get having Chase love but I am a little confused. I get it when Burrows broke records Chase absolutely feasted then again that is 1 season with statistically the greatest QB season in the history of college. Let me remind everyone about those guys last year by the names Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy. Incredible WR talent, most NFL ready tons of hype and Expert accolades? We all remember that right? We also should remember that those 2 weren't even the best WRs on their college team? Devonta Smith was and is.

Some said his success was because of Ruggs and Jeudy, well this year he did it again without them. People gush over Waddle, Smiths better and he has proven it repeatedly now. I am not hating on Chase but that is 1 season with a record breaking QB. I honestly cannot imagine Smith not being the clear cut WR1 in the draft. Smith has proven he produces with any QB and anyone else on the field.

I could be wrong but the perceived gap between Smith and Chase is more myth than reality. The least we can do is put him in the same tier. He earned it through multiple seasons and situations. That is something Chase didn't.

Jefferson had less yards and TDs with the same QB in the same season and look what he’s doing. Smith is a really good prospect as well. At this point, I don’t think you could go wrong with either.

[alewilliam789]

My tiers:

Tier 1:
Chase

Tier 2:
Smith
Eteinne
Harris
Pitts

Tier 3:
Lawrence
Rondale Moore
*Waddle (I will not be drafting, but I think he deserves to be right here)

Tier 4:
Rashod Bateman
Tylan Wallace
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave

Tier 5:
Justin Fields
Pat F.


Tier 6:
Elijah Moore
Brevin Jordan
Chubba Hubbard
Gainwell
Surratt


To me those are the only players worth drafting other than the QBs

[bjd5211]

My tiers:

Tier 1:
Chase

Tier 2:
Smith
Eteinne
Harris
Pitts

Tier 3:
Lawrence
Rondale Moore
*Waddle (I will not be drafting, but I think he deserves to be right here)

Tier 4:
Rashod Bateman
Tylan Wallace
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave

Tier 5:
Justin Fields
Pat F.


Tier 6:
Elijah Moore
Brevin Jordan
Chubba Hubbard
Gainwell
Surratt


To me those are the only players worth drafting other than the QBs

Javonte Williams is a glaring omission.

[alewilliam789]

My tiers:

Tier 1:
Chase

Tier 2:
Smith
Eteinne
Harris
Pitts

Tier 3:
Lawrence
Rondale Moore
*Waddle (I will not be drafting, but I think he deserves to be right here)

Tier 4:
Rashod Bateman
Tylan Wallace
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave

Tier 5:
Justin Fields
Pat F.


Tier 6:
Elijah Moore
Brevin Jordan
Chubba Hubbard
Gainwell
Surratt


To me those are the only players worth drafting other than the QBs

Javonte Williams is a glaring omission.

Oh yes thank you for reminding me to add him to my watch list of players!

[yinzername]

My tiers:

Tier 1:
Chase

Tier 2:
Smith
Eteinne
Harris
Pitts

Tier 3:
Lawrence
Rondale Moore
*Waddle (I will not be drafting, but I think he deserves to be right here)

Tier 4:
Rashod Bateman
Tylan Wallace
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Chris Olave

Tier 5:
Justin Fields
Pat F.


Tier 6:
Elijah Moore
Brevin Jordan
Chubba Hubbard
Gainwell
Surratt


To me those are the only players worth drafting other than the QBs

Javonte Williams is a glaring omission.

Oh yes thank you for reminding me to add him to my watch list of players!

No Terrace Marshall for u guys?