AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

[DynastyDrum30]

I had some concerns over the offseason with him reaching near 2019 numbers due to many large chunk plays and TEN being more run-oriented.

But seeing Tannehills growth and the increased passing volume has strengthened my confidence in Brown being a strong WR1 going forward. Brown had 84 targets last year and is on pace for 128 through 16 games.

[hoos89]

The shift in offensive philosophy to a pass heavy one in Sea coupled with a very run heavy offense in Tennessee likely is a factor in the disparity of hype.

But the biggest reason is almost certainly that AJB wasn’t playing due to injury. His rookie year was phenomenal, and I expect great things to continue.

Yeah AJB had the better rookie year of the two and is picking up right where left off (and then some) now that he's healthy. AJB is currently WR5 in PPG and Metcalf is WR13. It's a smaller sample size but if they both have comparable RoS production then I think there's going to be a hot debate this offseason as to which former Ole Miss WR is the dynasty WR1.

[Mjvb5]

The shift in offensive philosophy to a pass heavy one in Sea coupled with a very run heavy offense in Tennessee likely is a factor in the disparity of hype.

But the biggest reason is almost certainly that AJB wasn’t playing due to injury. His rookie year was phenomenal, and I expect great things to continue.

X2 it's just that dk came right out of the gate hot while brown got hurt in week one, missed 2 games, had a bye and then started balling in week 5. If he opened the year like this he'd be right up there in terms of hype train

[PTW32]

Honestly, not sure why DK gets so much more talk.

AJB and DK are both top 5 dynasty WRs.

I agree but my guess is the disparity comes from 1 being tied to Wilson and the other tied to Tannehill

You say that like being tied to Tannehill is a bad thing. He's no Wilson, but he's been a plus QB since taking over for Mariota.

I'm not saying being tied to Tanny is bad at all. Just that much of the talk about DK being the #1 Dynasty WR is that he's tied to Russ for the next 10 years.

[hoos89]

That's fair, but given what we're seeing from AJB with Tannehill (and that Tannehill signed a 4 year deal) I'm not sure I give tooo much weight to the gap in situation. AJB actually has more PPG so far this season than Metcalf, which I think a lot of people don't realize.

[Sriracha]

I'm not saying being tied to Tanny is bad at all. Just that much of the talk about DK being the #1 Dynasty WR is that he's tied to Russ for the next 10 years.

Very valid point.

They're both in the same tier, imo. And I also agree it's very likely because AJB missed a chunk of the season so his hype train has just started rolling.

I guess what was confusing to me is that AJB should've entered the year with more hype due to his phenomenal rookie season; but I guess recency bias is stronger than body of work.

[CGW]

I'm not saying being tied to Tanny is bad at all. Just that much of the talk about DK being the #1 Dynasty WR is that he's tied to Russ for the next 10 years.

Very valid point.

They're both in the same tier, imo. And I also agree it's very likely because AJB missed a chunk of the season so his hype train has just started rolling.

I guess what was confusing to me is that AJB should've entered the year with more hype due to his phenomenal rookie season; but I guess recency bias is stronger than body of work.

I tried to get both in my leagues prior to the season, and AJB was carrying a bigger price tag preseason. With his injury and covid bye week, DK got hot due to recency bias and the way he punished Gilmore in a prime time game.

Both of these guys are going to be studs for a long time and if you can get either for a reasonable price, it's a good bet.

[hoos89]

I tried floating McLaurin for AJB when he was hurt but no dice. Unfortunately I traded him for a '21 1st in that league last offseason...but fortunately I used the pick on Jefferson so I'm not feeling too down about it.

[hoos89]

Since returning from injury (including the Titans' Week 4 bye to keep games played even), AJB has outscored DK Metcalf 199.2 to 196.6, and he is WR4 in total points, WR5 in PPG.

[bjd5211]

Since returning from injury (including the Titans' Week 4 bye to keep games played even), AJB has outscored DK Metcalf 199.2 to 196.6, and he is WR4 in total points, WR5 in PPG.

Wow! That's 3 whole points (if you round up).

[hoos89]

Since returning from injury (including the Titans' Week 4 bye to keep games played even), AJB has outscored DK Metcalf 199.2 to 196.6, and he is WR4 in total points, WR5 in PPG.

Wow! That's 3 whole points (if you round up).

My point is that DK Metcalf is widely considered to be more valuable but AJB is actually (slightly) outperforming him since missing 2 games and change with an injury, in spite of what is broadly considered to be a materially worse situation.

Metcalf seems to be the consensus dynasty WR1 right now, but AJB is rarely even listed as the WR2. Either AJB is underrated or Metcalf is overrated.

[CGW]

Since returning from injury (including the Titans' Week 4 bye to keep games played even), AJB has outscored DK Metcalf 199.2 to 196.6, and he is WR4 in total points, WR5 in PPG.

Wow! That's 3 whole points (if you round up).

My point is that DK Metcalf is widely considered to be more valuable but AJB is actually (slightly) outperforming him since missing 2 games and change with an injury, in spite of what is broadly considered to be a materially worse situation.

Metcalf seems to be the consensus dynasty WR1 right now, but AJB is rarely even listed as the WR2. Either AJB is underrated or Metcalf is overrated.

While I agree with you that AJB is in the discussion, fantasy value isn't always about what happened this season. Some haven't bought in to the future of Tannehill yet like they have with Wilson.

[burntfire]

Wow! That's 3 whole points (if you round up).

My point is that DK Metcalf is widely considered to be more valuable but AJB is actually (slightly) outperforming him since missing 2 games and change with an injury, in spite of what is broadly considered to be a materially worse situation.

Metcalf seems to be the consensus dynasty WR1 right now, but AJB is rarely even listed as the WR2. Either AJB is underrated or Metcalf is overrated.

While I agree with you that AJB is in the discussion, fantasy value isn't always about what happened this season. Some haven't bought in to the future of Tannehill yet like they have with Wilson.

It's this. As actual receivers Brown MAY be more talented than DK but DK has the luxury of having Wilson the next 5 years while AJB has to hope Ryan keeps up his current pace.

[hoos89]

AJB is (slightly) outperforming a WR who is in a situation that everyone agrees is materially better. I view that as a point in AJB's favor not the other way around. What happened to talent over situation?

[Ice]

I tried floating McLaurin for AJB when he was hurt but no dice. Unfortunately I traded him for a '21 1st in that league last offseason...but fortunately I used the pick on Jefferson so I'm not feeling too down about it.

You could try Trading Jefferson away to get him.
With all the Jefferson love you may even get a pick back.