Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[hoos89]

Goff and Jimmy G have each had one low QB1 season. Jimmy G has never even had a QB1 season. So no. None of them have ever had a stretch like this.

Depending on the league and scoring system, Tannehill is basically a low end QB1 this season. So I don't understand your point.

He's a mid-QB1 in 12 team leagues this season...also this same production last season would have been tied for QB2 overall. He was also the QB2 behind Lamar Jackson last season after he took over the starting role. None of the other QBs we're talking about have had a stretch like that. Goff came close-ish in '17-'18 just in terms of placement, but (1) I don't think he ever had the high-QB1 stretch that Tannehill had last season, and (2) Goff was only putting up 17-19 ppg in his QB1 seasons (I was mistaken, he's had 2, not 1), while Tannehill has been at 21-23. That's a pretty substantial difference. Goff's actually having a pretty similar season this year (16.46 PPG) to his '17 season when he was QB8 (17.02 PPG), but he's only QB15 because scoring is up. So by '20 standards his '17 season was really a high QB2 season.

Tannehill has had an extremely impressive 1.5 seasons since taking over in Tennessee, and it's actually insane that anyone would dismiss it like this.

[Cameron Giles]

Oh God I hope they keep Jimmy. Way to eliminate yourself from Super Bowl contention before the year starts

They... they literally played in the Super Bowl with Garoppolo last year.

History hasn't been kind to OSU QBs in the NFL. That being said supposedly Fields doesn't fit that mold given his accuracy? OSU just has a way of inflating their stats to make them look pretty...like glitter...everywhere...bah.

If I recall correctly, Haskins was very accurate too. Haskins entered the draft after a 4,831 passing yard, 50 TD, 8 INT season.

That said, we should never uniform scout. Every player transitions to the NFL differently.

Agreed re: uniform scouting. I liked Haskins, but he was a one year starter and those guys are historically risky. Fields will likely have a better profile, and he looks more like an NFL athlete than Haskins did. Washington is also arguably the worst organization in the league, or at least in the bottom tier.

Yep, stuff like this:

"Am told The Washington Football Team is aware of the social media posts with Dwayne Haskins at a strip club, allegedly after Sunday's game. They've been in contact with the league; Washington is handling internally. Do believe Rivera is trying to keep the focus on Carolina"
https://twitter.com/john_keim/status/13 ... 2082592770

is why we can't just look at the school someone went to.

Some players just don't get it.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Goff and Jimmy G have each had one low QB1 season. Jimmy G has never even had a QB1 season. So no. None of them have ever had a stretch like this.

Depending on the league and scoring system, Tannehill is basically a low end QB1 this season. So I don't understand your point.

He's a mid-QB1 in 12 team leagues this season...also this same production last season would have been tied for QB2 overall. He was also the QB2 behind Lamar Jackson last season after he took over the starting role. None of the other QBs we're talking about have had a stretch like that. Goff came close-ish in '17-'18 just in terms of placement, but (1) I don't think he ever had the high-QB1 stretch that Tannehill had last season, and (2) Goff was only putting up 17-19 ppg in his QB1 seasons (I was mistaken, he's had 2, not 1), while Tannehill has been at 21-23. That's a pretty substantial difference. Goff's actually having a pretty similar season this year (16.46 PPG) to his '17 season when he was QB8 (17.02 PPG), but he's only QB15 because scoring is up. So by '20 standards his '17 season was really a high QB2 season.

Tannehill has had an extremely impressive 1.5 seasons since taking over in Tennessee, and it's actually insane that anyone would dismiss it like this.

There are two discussions happening at once. One is regarding fantasy production and one is regarding NFL value. My point was regarding NFL value, and that all of those guys seem to be capable of looking really good in a great situation, and not being able to elevate a bad situation. Looking at Tannehill year by year, that seems to be true. SF isn’t a bad situation by any means, but it’s not Tennessee, and it’s not 2018 LAR.

To be clear, nobody is dismissing Tannehill. I’m saying that over his career he’s shown that he’s good enough to look awesome in a great situation. I just think there are other QBs, like Matt Ryan and Jared Goff, who are also capable of looking great in great situations. None of these guys seem capable of elevating bad situations, but there’s only a handful of guys who are.

Re: Tannehill and Goff, Goff was QB6 in 2018. Tannehill is on pace to be QB7 this year, which would be his best finish. Tannehill had a fantastic stretch last year where he was QB2 over 10 games, and I’m unable to break down Goff’s stats to see if he’s ever had a stretch like that.

[mgscott]

Depending on the league and scoring system, Tannehill is basically a low end QB1 this season. So I don't understand your point.

He's a mid-QB1 in 12 team leagues this season...also this same production last season would have been tied for QB2 overall. He was also the QB2 behind Lamar Jackson last season after he took over the starting role. None of the other QBs we're talking about have had a stretch like that. Goff came close-ish in '17-'18 just in terms of placement, but (1) I don't think he ever had the high-QB1 stretch that Tannehill had last season, and (2) Goff was only putting up 17-19 ppg in his QB1 seasons (I was mistaken, he's had 2, not 1), while Tannehill has been at 21-23. That's a pretty substantial difference. Goff's actually having a pretty similar season this year (16.46 PPG) to his '17 season when he was QB8 (17.02 PPG), but he's only QB15 because scoring is up. So by '20 standards his '17 season was really a high QB2 season.

Tannehill has had an extremely impressive 1.5 seasons since taking over in Tennessee, and it's actually insane that anyone would dismiss it like this.

There are two discussions happening at once. One is regarding fantasy production and one is regarding NFL value. My point was regarding NFL value, and that all of those guys seem to be capable of looking really good in a great situation, and not being able to elevate a bad situation. Looking at Tannehill year by year, that seems to be true. SF isn’t a bad situation by any means, but it’s not Tennessee, and it’s not 2018 LAR.

To be clear, nobody is dismissing Tannehill. I’m saying that over his career he’s shown that he’s good enough to look awesome in a great situation. I just think there are other QBs, like Matt Ryan and Jared Goff, who are also capable of looking great in great situations. None of these guys seem capable of elevating bad situations, but there’s only a handful of guys who are.

Re: Tannehill and Goff, Goff was QB6 in 2018. Tannehill is on pace to be QB7 this year, which would be his best finish. Tannehill had a fantastic stretch last year where he was QB2 over 10 games, and I’m unable to break down Goff’s stats to see if he’s ever had a stretch like that.

I see Tannehill as QB8-10 in my leagues, depending on if you go by total points or points per game. Which I would call low end QB1.

[hoos89]

(1) Tannehill's best fantasy seasons are 21.4 PPG this year and 22.5 PPG last year (as starter) versus Goff's 17.0 PPG in 2017 and 19.1 PPG in 2018 and (2) Tannehill's best passer rating seasons are 110.4 this year and 117.5 last year versus Goff's 100.5 in 2017 and 101.1 in 2018. So Tannehill's '19 and '20 have been materially more impressive from both a fantasy perspective and a real life perspective than Goff's best 2 seasons. And I don't think Jimmy G or Carr has had any where near as good of a 2 season stretch as Goff, so it's even more ridiculous to compare Tannehill to them.

Also Tannehill has 35 total TDs versus 5 total turnovers this season, and leads the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks (4) and game winning drives (5). He's top 5 in YPA, TD%, INT%, passer rating, QBR, and 40+ yard passes. That's pretty absurd from an NFL value standpoint. And he was more impressive last season.

Also I really don't think it's fair to knock anyone for not "elevating" a Gase-led team considering NOBODY has ever done that. Plus how many of the current great QBs have ever even really been in that bad of a situation, much less elevated such a situation? I think Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson and Watson have been in solid to excellent situations their whole careers. Brady is the only active QB I can think of who has for sure elevated a bad offense at times in his career. So yes, I will grant you that Tannehill isn't the literal GOAT. That said: Goff's current offense isn't even bad (the Rams are 8th in total yards) and I seem to recall the Titans offense being pretty bad (<10 PPG) prior to Tannehill becoming the starter last year...people credit Henry for making things easy for Tannehill, but I think that goes both ways. Henry was averaging ~70 rushing yards through 6 games last season, and I don't seem to recall Henry being considered an elite RB prior to Tannehill taking over.

[murphysxm]

Are we even convinced Fields is better than what Darnold was touted to be? I'm in the camp he either is an uber stud or he bust really really hard.

I'm hoping for the former for the league itself. It's always fantastic having young stud QBs.

I am firmly in the camp Fields is going to be meh. You have to transfer because of Jake Fromm, you aren' the answer,

[bjd5211]

Are we even convinced Fields is better than what Darnold was touted to be? I'm in the camp he either is an uber stud or he bust really really hard.

I'm hoping for the former for the league itself. It's always fantastic having young stud QBs.

I am firmly in the camp Fields is going to be meh. You have to transfer because of Jake Fromm, you aren' the answer,

Lol what a dumb reasoning. That was Kirby Smart's screwup, not Fields'.

I guess Burrow is actually a bum because he had to transfer from Ohio State after he didn't beat out JT Barrett or Dwayne Haskins.

[Jigga94]

Are we even convinced Fields is better than what Darnold was touted to be? I'm in the camp he either is an uber stud or he bust really really hard.

I'm hoping for the former for the league itself. It's always fantastic having young stud QBs.

I am firmly in the camp Fields is going to be meh. You have to transfer because of Jake Fromm, you aren' the answer,

Lol what a dumb reasoning. That was Kirby Smart's screwup, not Fields'.

I guess Burrow is actually a bum because he had to transfer from Ohio State after he didn't beat out JT Barrett or Dwayne Haskins.

There has to be a million examples of this...

[remedy29]

Are we even convinced Fields is better than what Darnold was touted to be? I'm in the camp he either is an uber stud or he bust really really hard.

I'm hoping for the former for the league itself. It's always fantastic having young stud QBs.

I am firmly in the camp Fields is going to be meh. You have to transfer because of Jake Fromm, you aren' the answer,

Jets fan here.
I don't know if Fields will be good or not, he seems like a developmental QB that could be boom or bust.
I can't imagine the Jets drafting him at no. 2. Fields would have to be every bit the stud QB Lawrence could potentially be, because the NY media will constantly remind everyone of what the Jets "could" have had.
Joe Douglas is in the beginning stages of a complete roster tear down and rebuild. I do not think his plans were a rookie QB in 2021 draft. Look for Douglas to acquire building block players, OL, Edge rusher, CB or trade down to acquire more talent.
At this point, the Jets best path is to keep Darnold, continue building the roster and reassess next year.

[AussieMate]

Surely come draft day someone offers something to move up to 1.02 and the Jets just collect more picks and possibly kick the tires on Darnold in 2022. Taking Sewell would be a nice pick for them but I feel like they are so many pieces away from doing anything that a trade back is necessary now that Lawrence is off the table.

[StripesOfKC]

I can't believe so many people think Fields is garbage because he had a bad game

He was considered a lock for 1.2 to the Jags a week ago and now people think the Jets should tank indefinitely because they didn't get Lawrence

[bjd5211]

Jags and Jets are getting the top 2 picks in some order, whoever gets #1 is taking Lawrence and #2 is taking Fields, and they will both be happy with the guy they get in the long-run.

[ThunderTung]

Jags and Jets are getting the top 2 picks in some order, whoever gets #1 is taking Lawrence and #2 is taking Fields, and they will both be happy with the guy they get in the long-run.

Wouldn't shock me if Wilson ends up vaulting over fields at 2

[bjd5211]

Jags and Jets are getting the top 2 picks in some order, whoever gets #1 is taking Lawrence and #2 is taking Fields, and they will both be happy with the guy they get in the long-run.

Wouldn't shock me if Wilson ends up vaulting over fields at 2

That would be a typical Jets move, and mistake.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

This was probably said upthread, but I wouldn't hate the jets drafting Penei and giving Darnold a Gase-free try if they have 2.
I do think Fields is a good prospect, I just think going to THIS jets team might not give him a chance to develop.