Travis Fulgham

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Vcize
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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby Vcize » Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:08 pm

It was actually a Michael Thomas discussion in another thread that caused me to pull the data but for those that were wondering on somewhat similar comps to Mike Evans, here are all the guys that had 3+ 1000 yard seasons prior to age 27 and then failed to reach 75 receptions or 900 yards in either their age 27 or 28 season.

Randy Moss
Donald Driver
Santana Moss
Plaxico Burress
Dwayne Bowe
Dez Bryant
Darrell Jackson
Stevie Johnson
Mike Wallace
AJ Green

In that case we were talking about MT so I left in the guys who had injuries that caused them to miss a large portion of the year. In this case since we're talking about Evans who hasn't missed time I put a minimum games played limiter on (it only eliminated VJax, who had a season ending injury in week 5 of his age 27 season).

Obviously many of these guys at their peak weren't as good as Evans at his but of the 10 guys, 9 of them still saw their value fall off precipitously from the "low" level it was at during their down season.

Maybe Evans is more Moss and less Dez/AJG/Plaxico, but I think these guys bounce back less often that people realize.
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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby CGW » Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:44 pm

Vcize wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:08 pm It was actually a Michael Thomas discussion in another thread that caused me to pull the data but for those that were wondering on somewhat similar comps to Mike Evans, here are all the guys that had 3+ 1000 yard seasons prior to age 27 and then failed to reach 75 receptions or 900 yards in either their age 27 or 28 season.

Randy Moss
Donald Driver
Santana Moss
Plaxico Burress
Dwayne Bowe
Dez Bryant
Darrell Jackson
Stevie Johnson
Mike Wallace
AJ Green

In that case we were talking about MT so I left in the guys who had injuries that caused them to miss a large portion of the year. In this case since we're talking about Evans who hasn't missed time I put a minimum games played limiter on (it only eliminated VJax, who had a season ending injury in week 5 of his age 27 season).

Obviously many of these guys at their peak weren't as good as Evans at his but of the 10 guys, 9 of them still saw their value fall off precipitously from the "low" level it was at during their down season.

Maybe Evans is more Moss and less Dez/AJG/Plaxico, but I think these guys bounce back less often that people realize.
I appreciate the effort on the research, but still not buying the narrative. I agree his value will more than likely drop from here out, but doesnt mean his production will. You could easily select a dozen "comps" that would show he's about to enter his prime.

As you've said, most of the guys on your list were nowhere near Evans talent. The fact of it is, he's had 6 straight 1k seasons (only he and Moss) and even his 2020 season will likely be darn close to a 7th despite an entirely new offense and playing through an injury for a few weeks.

I'd gladly sell him and get ahead of the curve for proper valuation, but I'll gladly scoop up shares from those willing to sell him for 2nds and Fulghams.

Edit: also while i disagree with the comps, I notice there are 21 additional 1000 yard seasons after the age of 27 from this group. That's not bad considering a couple of these comps definitely don't belong in this talent discussion.
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QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1st 2025 | 1stx3, 2nd, 3rdx2

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Stroud
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert, Love, Young, Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Flowers, Collins, Downs
TE | Hockenson, Dulcich, Likely, Otton
2024 | 2nd, 3rdx3, 4th

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby jcc6fd » Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:25 pm

Another horrendous drop today. He’s toast
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QB: Mahomes, Hurts, Minshew
RB: Kamara, K. Hunt, Warren, Bigsby, D. Cook, Jamaal Williams, J. Wilson, McLaughlin, McKinnon, J. Kelley
WR: A.J. Brown, Diggs, K. Allen, C. Watson, Cooks, Pickens, W. Robinson
TE: Kelce, J. Smith, Musgrave

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby Pullo Vision » Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:08 am

I wasn't crowning him after a couple good weeks and I'm not dumping him now that-
A- the WRs/TEs have gotten healthier
B- Wentz is stinking it up

He's still a stash, for me.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby CGW » Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:49 am

Pullo Vision wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:08 am I wasn't crowning him after a couple good weeks and I'm not dumping him now that-
A- the WRs/TEs have gotten healthier
B- Wentz is stinking it up

He's still a stash, for me.
Agree, nothing but a stash. I had an offer for a 3rd in one league...i may regret not taking it! Would have liked to see him keep his target share, but the Eagles obviously don't view him as a top option and the offense sucks too much to support more than 1.5 options which are typically the TEs.

On a positive note, the Evans v Fulgham debate didn't move much this week with Evans on bye.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1st 2025 | 1stx3, 2nd, 3rdx2

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Stroud
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert, Love, Young, Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Flowers, Collins, Downs
TE | Hockenson, Dulcich, Likely, Otton
2024 | 2nd, 3rdx3, 4th

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:32 am

CGW wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:49 am
Pullo Vision wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:08 am I wasn't crowning him after a couple good weeks and I'm not dumping him now that-
A- the WRs/TEs have gotten healthier
B- Wentz is stinking it up

He's still a stash, for me.
Agree, nothing but a stash. I had an offer for a 3rd in one league...i may regret not taking it! Would have liked to see him keep his target share, but the Eagles obviously don't view him as a top option and the offense sucks too much to support more than 1.5 options which are typically the TEs.

On a positive note, the Evans v Fulgham debate didn't move much this week with Evans on bye.
It didn't move much because they're already so far apart. And honestly, it probably moved further with Fuglys dud

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby mild » Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:13 pm

Can this thread just die already :lol:

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:18 pm

Is there a way to take yourself off a thread?

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby Orenthal Shames » Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:17 am

mild wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:13 pm Can this thread just die already :lol:
Cut

/thread
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby Krypto_King » Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:25 am

T's+P's to that non-Evans guy itt

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby jman3134 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:37 am

If he lands with the Lions....
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Taysom Hill, Isaiah Likely
K:
D: Dallas D

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:09 pm

Mike Evans could never

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby Patsfan86 » Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:25 pm

One of those classic "I should have traded him 2 weeks before i did". I instead held onto him for an additional two weeks and instead of getting a good player or possibly a first i got Harrison Bryant. Lessons learned yearly in dynasty- Sell early rather than late. On another note guys like Fulgham are why i completely refuse to buy into guys like James Robinson, Jakobi Meyers etc

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby hockeyBjj » Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:25 pm

Crazy how someone can go from the waiver wire darling of fantasy to unemployed just like that

Makes what someone like Thielen did even more impressive.
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2022: 1-8
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Purdy
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Achane, Charbonnet, Algier, McBride, waiver trash
WR: JSN, QJ, Addison, Dotson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Hyatt, T Dell, Boutte, Skowronek, Quez Watkins, Greg Dortch, waiver trash
TE: Hockenson, F Monroe, Juwan, Musgrave
D/K: Patriots, Vikings, Saints, Dicker

picks-
2024- 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5
2025 1,1,1,2,3,4,5

team 2- 12 team SF, .5PPR, .5TE boost, 1QB, 1SF, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
2022: 8-1
Finishes: 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd :wall:
QB: Ljax, GenoD Jones, Minshew, Dobbs
RB: CMC, Stevenson, A Jones, Chubb, A Mattison, D cook, Perine, Mckinnon,
WR:Tyreek, Diggs, C Kupp, D Adams, Keenan Allen, Lockett, Gallup, A Lazard, Hodgins
TE: Kelce, LaPorta, Irv Smith,
No picks until 2026 5th rounder lol

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Re: Travis Fulgham

Postby lukkynumber13 » Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:12 pm

hockeyBjj wrote: Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:25 pm Crazy how someone can go from the waiver wire darling of fantasy to unemployed just like that

Makes what someone like Thielen did even more impressive.
For real. That literally almost NEVER happens.
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM C - 14T, SF (Joined in 22)
GENO
HENRY/A JONES, Gus E
HILL/DIGGS/K ALLEN
WALLER
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE/POLLARD
CHASE/DIGGS/G WILSON/AIYUK, DJM, Pittman
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/POLLARD, Hall
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM F - 16T (Joined in 23)
R WILSON, Minshew
SAQUON/KAMARA/MIXON, Monty
DIGGS/GODWIN/AIYUK/EVANS, Thielen, A Cooper
KELCE, Schultz
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA


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