The Kyle "Is not the" Pitts Thread

[Sriracha]

Well this implies that you are willing to buy/sell on these dips. Go look at the Lamar Jackson thread. Nobody was giving up on him this offseason because he was a certainty to improve according to his fans. How do those owners feel now?

Most don't play dynasty that way where they see an uptick on a rookie and then sell. They believe they made the right call and ride it out. Jefferson and Gibson this year are easily worth more than where they were drafted this year but owners aren't selling those guys for a profit. They are holding them and building around them. If you aren't moving those pieces, you as the owner haven't lost any actual value. You may have lost perceived value, but until you sell, you haven't lost anything on that player.

Lamar Jackson was sold "high" in multiple leagues I'm in... so I'm not sure I'd make this assumption.

If you believed in the prospect before and he broke out, they're confirming your preconceived notions and you're not going to trade them. If you begrudgingly took them and they hit in a big way, many many fantasy owners are willing to move them at what they perceive to be their highest cost.

This is unrelated to the thread, but 1 down season where Lamar is still a QB1 doesn't mean he won't rebound.

[jenkins.math]

Well this implies that you are willing to buy/sell on these dips. Go look at the Lamar Jackson thread. Nobody was giving up on him this offseason because he was a certainty to improve according to his fans. How do those owners feel now?

Most don't play dynasty that way where they see an uptick on a rookie and then sell. They believe they made the right call and ride it out. Jefferson and Gibson this year are easily worth more than where they were drafted this year but owners aren't selling those guys for a profit. They are holding them and building around them. If you aren't moving those pieces, you as the owner haven't lost any actual value. You may have lost perceived value, but until you sell, you haven't lost anything on that player.

Lamar Jackson was sold "high" in multiple leagues I'm in... so I'm not sure I'd make this assumption.

If you believed in the prospect before and he broke out, they're confirming your preconceived notions and you're not going to trade them. If you begrudgingly took them and they hit in a big way, many many fantasy owners are willing to move them at what they perceive to be their highest cost.

This is unrelated to the thread, but 1 down season where Lamar is still a QB1 doesn't mean he won't rebound.

If this were true then James Robinson would have be sold in every single league this year. What has actually happened? The community has said "maybe we missed on this guy and he is actually good." Has he been sold in leagues? Sure. Has this been unanimous? Not at all.

If you take a guy and he hits in a big way most people aren't selling that player. That isn't the reality of human behavior. It's fun to speak in hypotheticals but the masses don't move that way.

Lamar may rebound and be better, but he will never be valued the same way as he was this offseason after this year. You're basically trying to function in a buy low/sell high environment. If you held Lamar you have already whiffed on the sell high window.

[Cameron Giles]

Not drafting Pitts because Ebron was a bust is akin to saying we shouldn't have taken CEH because Guice was a bust. Or that we should draft the next QB from TX Tech because that is where Mahomes came from. Or avoid Justin Jefferson because the last 2 Vikings round 1 WRs were CPatt and Treadwell. Ebron is totally irrelevant and has nothing to do with Pitts and his success/failure in the league.

My issue with the drafting the TE position early is that you typically only have to start 1, they aren't as involved as other positions, and since all but about 3 are a roll of the dice, I typically choose to round out my depth at WR/RB rather than TE in round 1. However, I wouldn't be scared to take a TE I thought was special in round 1 if the rest of my team was fine and there were just a bunch of guys I thought were depth at other spots.

Avoiding Pitts in the 1st round has nothing to do with Ebron specifically, as much as it has to do with the recent history of TEs in the 1st and 2nd round in the past 10 years.

This is what I already posted:

TE's drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL Draft (excluding 2020):

2019: Hockenson, Fant, Smith Jr., Sample
2018: Hurst, Gesicki, Goedert
2017: Howard, Engram, Njoku, Shaheen, Everett
2016: Henry
2015: Williams
2014: Ebron, Sefarian-Jenkins, Amaro, Niklas
2013: Eifert, Ertz, Escobar, McDonald
2012: Fleener
2011: Rudolph, Kendricks
2010: Gresham, Gronk

2 studs out of 27.

We can go even further:
2009: Pettigrew, Quinn
2008: Keller, Carlson, Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett
2007: Olsen, Z. Miller
2006: V. Davis, Lewis
2005: H. Miller
2004: K. Winslow Jr, Watson, Troupe, Wilson
2003: D. Clark, Joppru, Smith, Tevo Johnson
2002: Shockey, D. Graham, Stevens, Jolley
2001: Heap, Crumpler
2000: Franks, Becht

That means in the last 19 drafts:

Studs: Gronk, Ertz, Olsen, V. Davis

There's some close ones with Winslow Jr. and Shockey, and a few others.

But that's 4 undeniable studs out of 54 picks. If you have the ammo and can afford a shot, then go for it, but history tells us that the chances are really bad. And again, this is coming from someone who absolutely loves Pitts' game.

[Sriracha]

Well this implies that you are willing to buy/sell on these dips. Go look at the Lamar Jackson thread. Nobody was giving up on him this offseason because he was a certainty to improve according to his fans. How do those owners feel now?

Most don't play dynasty that way where they see an uptick on a rookie and then sell. They believe they made the right call and ride it out. Jefferson and Gibson this year are easily worth more than where they were drafted this year but owners aren't selling those guys for a profit. They are holding them and building around them. If you aren't moving those pieces, you as the owner haven't lost any actual value. You may have lost perceived value, but until you sell, you haven't lost anything on that player.

Lamar Jackson was sold "high" in multiple leagues I'm in... so I'm not sure I'd make this assumption.

If you believed in the prospect before and he broke out, they're confirming your preconceived notions and you're not going to trade them. If you begrudgingly took them and they hit in a big way, many many fantasy owners are willing to move them at what they perceive to be their highest cost.

This is unrelated to the thread, but 1 down season where Lamar is still a QB1 doesn't mean he won't rebound.

If this were true then James Robinson would have be sold in every single league this year. What has actually happened? The community has said "maybe we missed on this guy and he is actually good." Has he been sold in leagues? Sure. Has this been unanimous? Not at all.

If you take a guy and he hits in a big way most people aren't selling that player. That isn't the reality of human behavior. It's fun to speak in hypotheticals but the masses don't move that way.

Lamar may rebound and be better, but he will never be valued the same way as he was this offseason after this year. You're basically trying to function in a buy low/sell high environment. If you held Lamar you have already whiffed on the sell high window.

James Robinson has probably been traded in half of my leagues.. and been shopped in everyone of them

I'm not saying everyone adheres to any mindset... but it's much more common than you're implying

[briank]

Well this implies that you are willing to buy/sell on these dips. Go look at the Lamar Jackson thread. Nobody was giving up on him this offseason because he was a certainty to improve according to his fans. How do those owners feel now?

Most don't play dynasty that way where they see an uptick on a rookie and then sell. They believe they made the right call and ride it out. Jefferson and Gibson this year are easily worth more than where they were drafted this year but owners aren't selling those guys for a profit. They are holding them and building around them. If you aren't moving those pieces, you as the owner haven't lost any actual value. You may have lost perceived value, but until you sell, you haven't lost anything on that player.

Lamar Jackson was sold "high" in multiple leagues I'm in... so I'm not sure I'd make this assumption.

If you believed in the prospect before and he broke out, they're confirming your preconceived notions and you're not going to trade them. If you begrudgingly took them and they hit in a big way, many many fantasy owners are willing to move them at what they perceive to be their highest cost.

This is unrelated to the thread, but 1 down season where Lamar is still a QB1 doesn't mean he won't rebound.

If this were true then James Robinson would have be sold in every single league this year. What has actually happened? The community has said "maybe we missed on this guy and he is actually good." Has he been sold in leagues? Sure. Has this been unanimous? Not at all.

If you take a guy and he hits in a big way most people aren't selling that player. That isn't the reality of human behavior. It's fun to speak in hypotheticals but the masses don't move that way.

Lamar may rebound and be better, but he will never be valued the same way as he was this offseason after this year. You're basically trying to function in a buy low/sell high environment. If you held Lamar you have already whiffed on the sell high window.

You're making a lot of generalizations and pretending that if that is true it must happen in every league. That's a ridiculous argument. Plenty of people sold high on Lamar. Plenty didn't. Plenty sold high on Robinson. Plenty didn't. Some guys spike in value and continue to produce. Some guys spike and fall dead like Pettis. I've done very well buying low and selling high while being one of the most active owners in my leagues. Compiling value is how you win in dynasty.

[jenkins.math]

Not drafting Pitts because Ebron was a bust is akin to saying we shouldn't have taken CEH because Guice was a bust. Or that we should draft the next QB from TX Tech because that is where Mahomes came from. Or avoid Justin Jefferson because the last 2 Vikings round 1 WRs were CPatt and Treadwell. Ebron is totally irrelevant and has nothing to do with Pitts and his success/failure in the league.

My issue with the drafting the TE position early is that you typically only have to start 1, they aren't as involved as other positions, and since all but about 3 are a roll of the dice, I typically choose to round out my depth at WR/RB rather than TE in round 1. However, I wouldn't be scared to take a TE I thought was special in round 1 if the rest of my team was fine and there were just a bunch of guys I thought were depth at other spots.

Avoiding Pitts in the 1st round has nothing to do with Ebron specifically, as much as it has to do with the recent history of TEs in the 1st and 2nd round in the past 10 years.

This is what I already posted:

TE's drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL Draft (excluding 2020):

2019: Hockenson, Fant, Smith Jr., Sample
2018: Hurst, Gesicki, Goedert
2017: Howard, Engram, Njoku, Shaheen, Everett
2016: Henry
2015: Williams
2014: Ebron, Sefarian-Jenkins, Amaro, Niklas
2013: Eifert, Ertz, Escobar, McDonald
2012: Fleener
2011: Rudolph, Kendricks
2010: Gresham, Gronk

2 studs out of 27.

We can go even further:
2009: Pettigrew, Quinn
2008: Keller, Carlson, Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett
2007: Olsen, Z. Miller
2006: V. Davis, Lewis
2005: H. Miller
2004: K. Winslow Jr, Watson, Troupe, Wilson
2003: D. Clark, Joppru, Smith, Tevo Johnson
2002: Shockey, D. Graham, Stevens, Jolley
2001: Heap, Crumpler
2000: Franks, Becht

That means in the last 19 drafts:

Studs: Gronk, Ertz, Olsen, V. Davis

There's some close ones with Winslow Jr. and Shockey, and a few others.

But that's 4 undeniable studs out of 54 picks. If you have the ammo and can afford a shot, then go for it, but history tells us that the chances are really bad. And again, this is coming from someone who absolutely loves Pitts' game.

I thought we were talking about taking TE's in fantasy drafts. You seem to be arguing against an NFL team drafting a TE early. Those are 2 totally different conversations.

[jenkins.math]

Lamar Jackson was sold "high" in multiple leagues I'm in... so I'm not sure I'd make this assumption.

If you believed in the prospect before and he broke out, they're confirming your preconceived notions and you're not going to trade them. If you begrudgingly took them and they hit in a big way, many many fantasy owners are willing to move them at what they perceive to be their highest cost.

This is unrelated to the thread, but 1 down season where Lamar is still a QB1 doesn't mean he won't rebound.

If this were true then James Robinson would have be sold in every single league this year. What has actually happened? The community has said "maybe we missed on this guy and he is actually good." Has he been sold in leagues? Sure. Has this been unanimous? Not at all.

If you take a guy and he hits in a big way most people aren't selling that player. That isn't the reality of human behavior. It's fun to speak in hypotheticals but the masses don't move that way.

Lamar may rebound and be better, but he will never be valued the same way as he was this offseason after this year. You're basically trying to function in a buy low/sell high environment. If you held Lamar you have already whiffed on the sell high window.

James Robinson has probably been traded in half of my leagues.. and been shopped in everyone of them

I'm not saying everyone adheres to any mindset... but it's much more common than you're implying

That presents another obstacle, you still have to find a viable trade partner to acquire/unload said asset. Trading isn't always as easy as we tend to make it here on the boards.

I don't think it is that common at all. It happens for sure, but that is far from the norm. At least in my experience. Apparently you have a different one.

[Cameron Giles]

Not drafting Pitts because Ebron was a bust is akin to saying we shouldn't have taken CEH because Guice was a bust. Or that we should draft the next QB from TX Tech because that is where Mahomes came from. Or avoid Justin Jefferson because the last 2 Vikings round 1 WRs were CPatt and Treadwell. Ebron is totally irrelevant and has nothing to do with Pitts and his success/failure in the league.

My issue with the drafting the TE position early is that you typically only have to start 1, they aren't as involved as other positions, and since all but about 3 are a roll of the dice, I typically choose to round out my depth at WR/RB rather than TE in round 1. However, I wouldn't be scared to take a TE I thought was special in round 1 if the rest of my team was fine and there were just a bunch of guys I thought were depth at other spots.

Avoiding Pitts in the 1st round has nothing to do with Ebron specifically, as much as it has to do with the recent history of TEs in the 1st and 2nd round in the past 10 years.

This is what I already posted:

TE's drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL Draft (excluding 2020):

2019: Hockenson, Fant, Smith Jr., Sample
2018: Hurst, Gesicki, Goedert
2017: Howard, Engram, Njoku, Shaheen, Everett
2016: Henry
2015: Williams
2014: Ebron, Sefarian-Jenkins, Amaro, Niklas
2013: Eifert, Ertz, Escobar, McDonald
2012: Fleener
2011: Rudolph, Kendricks
2010: Gresham, Gronk

2 studs out of 27.

We can go even further:
2009: Pettigrew, Quinn
2008: Keller, Carlson, Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett
2007: Olsen, Z. Miller
2006: V. Davis, Lewis
2005: H. Miller
2004: K. Winslow Jr, Watson, Troupe, Wilson
2003: D. Clark, Joppru, Smith, Tevo Johnson
2002: Shockey, D. Graham, Stevens, Jolley
2001: Heap, Crumpler
2000: Franks, Becht

That means in the last 19 drafts:

Studs: Gronk, Ertz, Olsen, V. Davis

There's some close ones with Winslow Jr. and Shockey, and a few others.

But that's 4 undeniable studs out of 54 picks. If you have the ammo and can afford a shot, then go for it, but history tells us that the chances are really bad. And again, this is coming from someone who absolutely loves Pitts' game.

I thought we were talking about taking TE's in fantasy drafts. You seem to be arguing against an NFL team drafting a TE early. Those are 2 totally different conversations.

Is that not a correlation to a TE going in round 1 of a rookie draft? If you look at the above, which TEs am I missing that went first round in rookie classes?

[jenkins.math]

Is that not a correlation to a TE going in round 1 of a rookie draft? If you look at the above, which TEs am I missing that went first round in rookie classes?

I listed the 4 TE's that had a round 1 Mizelle ADP from 2013-2018 earlier (2013 was as far back as the data went and its too early to determine anything about 2019). So the rest of that list doesn't have any correlation to going in round 1 of a dynasty rookie draft because they didn't according to ADP. Some of those guys drafted in the NFL are much more known for their blocking (Drew Sample) and thus wouldn't warrant consideration anyway in FF. Being a good NFL player and being a good FF player aren't always one in the same.

Now the 4 that did have a 1st round ADP were Ebron, Engram, Howard, Eifert. That's it. Not a good list, but it is also only 4 out of 72 players with a 1st round ADP during that time frame. It's just such a small list and how you view Ebron and/or Engram can completely alter that hit rate entirely. I would view them both as disappointments, but a case could be made that they are both still fantasy relevant, which is more than you can say for a lot of the other guys with first round ADPs.

[briank]

Is that not a correlation to a TE going in round 1 of a rookie draft? If you look at the above, which TEs am I missing that went first round in rookie classes?

I listed the 4 TE's that had a round 1 Mizelle ADP from 2013-2018 earlier (2013 was as far back as the data went and its too early to determine anything about 2019). So the rest of that list doesn't have any correlation to going in round 1 of a dynasty rookie draft because they didn't according to ADP. Some of those guys drafted in the NFL are much more known for their blocking (Drew Sample) and thus wouldn't warrant consideration anyway in FF. Being a good NFL player and being a good FF player aren't always one in the same.

Now the 4 that did have a 1st round ADP were Ebron, Engram, Howard, Eifert. That's it. Not a good list, but it is also only 4 out of 72 players with a 1st round ADP during that time frame. It's just such a small list and how you view Ebron and/or Engram can completely alter that hit rate entirely. I would view them both as disappointments, but a case could be made that they are both still fantasy relevant, which is more than you can say for a lot of the other guys with first round ADPs.

Again, ADP doesn't tell the whole story. Just because a player's ADP isn't in the 1st doesn't mean some owners weren't taking other TE in the 1st round of rookie drafts. I saw Njoku go in the 1st of several drafts, as an example.

[jenkins.math]

Again, ADP doesn't tell the whole story. Just because a player's ADP isn't in the 1st doesn't mean some owners weren't taking other TE in the 1st round of rookie drafts. I saw Njoku go in the 1st of several drafts, as an example.

I saw Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow go 1.01 in a 1QB league, but that wasn't indicative of the FF landscape. I saw AJ Dillon go at 1.04 in a league. Everyone on these boards can play this game.

I'm well aware than Njoku was a first rounder by some, but using every single one off would never allow for any type of discussion. You have to pick a data set to go with and using ADP was the most unbiased way to do it.

[Yarnith]

The reality that grabbing a rookie TE in the 1st is reaching for fantasy is just real. Its not even a debate. What the debate seems is "I value this guy as the 3rd best fantasy talent in the draft". There is nothing wrong with believing that but you are already gambling. Fantasy drafting is really just risk management. I cant imagine taking a TE over 2qb's, 3 rb's and 10wr's I see projected coming out. Those are my opinions though and while you can grab a TE at 1.03 but the odds are in everyones favor saying he's more reasonable at 2.1. In the end you do you but not gonna convince most to make that big of a leap.

[Vcize]

To me the biggest argument for not drafting a TE in the 1st is you can let him ride out that useless rookie season on someone else's roster taking up their roster spot instead of yours, and then buy him for the same price as a worst case scenario or cheaper as a base case.

TJ Hockenson had a fine rookie season, yet he was cheaper in every one of my leagues this offseason than he was coming into the league. Someone offered him to the entire league in one of my leagues for any random 1st a couple weeks into this year and no one would give it up, even a projected late 1st.

As someone else mentioned upthread Fant had one of the best rookie TE seasons in NFL history and his value was still roughly the same as it was in the rookie draft. You could have pretty easily traded a random 1st for him this offseason. Maybe less.

I'm sure at some point we will finally get a tight end that comes in and puts up like 75-1000-8 as a rookie and it turns out the best time to buy him was in the rookie draft. Maybe Pitts will be that guy. I guess it's up to each individual owner to make that call but it seems like a longshot to me.

[Cameron Giles]

I listed the 4 TE's that had a round 1 Mizelle ADP from 2013-2018 earlier (2013 was as far back as the data went and its too early to determine anything about 2019). So the rest of that list doesn't have any correlation to going in round 1 of a dynasty rookie draft because they didn't according to ADP. Some of those guys drafted in the NFL are much more known for their blocking (Drew Sample) and thus wouldn't warrant consideration anyway in FF. Being a good NFL player and being a good FF player aren't always one in the same.

Now the 4 that did have a 1st round ADP were Ebron, Engram, Howard, Eifert. That's it. Not a good list, but it is also only 4 out of 72 players with a 1st round ADP during that time frame. It's just such a small list and how you view Ebron and/or Engram can completely alter that hit rate entirely. I would view them both as disappointments, but a case could be made that they are both still fantasy relevant, which is more than you can say for a lot of the other guys with first round ADPs.

While that's true in an umbrella, the TE hits in dynasty have shown zero precursor of which types of prospects are good FF players vs. good NFL players.

Kittle - blocker in college
Waller - WR in college
Olsen - Never had more than 500 yards in a season in college
Reed - Converted QB
Graham - Converted basketball player with one season of college football

Are just a few reasons. Nobody ever looked at them and said "Oh, well they'll be better value in fantasy than real life." That's part of why I included the Top 2 rounds as a measure.

As far as the rookies who were 1st Round Rookie ADP, it basically reinforces the point:

Ebron - Top 10 NFL Draft Pick
Howard - Considered a can't-miss TE prospect for years even with so-so production
Engram - Probably one of the most productive TE prospects in recent memory and has a great athletic profile

Is Pitts as a prospect that much better than any of them? Hell, I think Howard was a better prospect than Pitts and Engram wasn't far off receiving wise. These TEs aren't bad players by any means, but you draft them because you hope they become a Kelce/Ertz/Kittle type where they give you a positional advantage. Instead, you just have meh to alright production with a few flash years mixed in. Not really worth the first round value.

[bjd5211]

Doesn't mean much, and I know PFF gets a pretty split opinion around here, but interesting "stat":

Pitts is currently tied with Chase Young for the highest graded college football player in PFF history (started grading college players in 2014) at 96.0.