Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

[Kmani6]

How does Metcalf get a pass here? Jefferson didn’t have a full offseason, and doing more than Metcalf did his rookie year, with a lesser QB.

So now we should judge all the current WR's based on their rookie years and compare those to Jefferson's? You are trying to make the case for the *current overall dynasty WR #1 *. Also, for the foreseeable future, Metcalf's QB is Wilson, and Jefferson's is Kirk, so yes QB situation does in fact matter.

There is a statistical correlation between rookie year success and long term success. As a 21 year old rookie, playing all WR positions, he is DOMINANT. He is not Juju playing just the slot, or Metcalf running just go routes on one side of the field his rookie year. Jefferson is by all measures, playing better than either to this point in their rookie seasons, and you can’t argue that. You are yet to make much of any argument, but I guess I have to pay the troll toll....

Who said I was arguing if Jefferson is playing better than metcalf/juju to this point in their rookie seasons? So now you are moving the goal post to some arbitrary claim and arguing something completely different than your original post.

Your entire argument here is that Jefferson is a “DOMINANT” 21 year old rookie, and that there is a statistical correlation between rookie year and long term success. So what?

Nobody is disagreeing with that, but it doesn’t give any merit to why Jefferson is the current dynasty WR #1.

Also, If you read more carefully you’d see I clearly said that simply put he hasn’t shown/produced enough.

[Kmani6]

I think a much more substantial discussion would be projecting the WR 1 out of this class for the next few years, with what we’ve seen so far. Here there’s actually a good case for Justin Jefferson, but also for guys like Lamb, Claypool, Higgins, Aiyuk, Jeudy, etc.

[TD41]

Top Rookie? For sure in the conversation. But he is on the Vikings, who held back Diggs for years. Can't be the dynasty #1 WR if you don't feel good putting them into your line up every week.

Everything that this man said... Diggs had 90 something targets his last year as a Vike, Jefferson's 16 game pace puts him at 88. Thielen still on pace for the 1-teens but he needed 140+ to hit his WR1 years. Barring Zimmer going away or some kind of historic efficiency I'm just not as high on the kid.

Diggs has already amassed 102 targets over 10 games in Buffalo and will more than likely top out at 165-180 targets and a WR1 season.

I'm opportunity over effiency more times than not.

All this being said Jefferson(and Josh Jacobs) have made me question my biases when it comes to 3-star prospects that flew under my personal radar.

[waynesworld1234]

Top Rookie? For sure in the conversation. But he is on the Vikings, who held back Diggs for years. Can't be the dynasty #1 WR if you don't feel good putting them into your line up every week.

I feel pretty great about starting Jefferson every week.

I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.

[bjd5211]

Top Rookie? For sure in the conversation. But he is on the Vikings, who held back Diggs for years. Can't be the dynasty #1 WR if you don't feel good putting them into your line up every week.

I feel pretty great about starting Jefferson every week.

I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.

Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.

[Cameron Giles]

He's been a real surprise. I think we knew he was good and could be a Top 20 WR, but I don't think anyone believed his upside is what it is now, which could be a Top-5 startup WR at the end of the season.

He's a smooth and explosive route runner. Love watching his games.

I don't think he's WR1 in Dynasty though, not that it matters because the position is so deep that drafting someone like Jefferson at #1 really doesn't give you any sort of advantage in winning or building a team.

But, he's been really, really good.

[waynesworld1234]

I feel pretty great about starting Jefferson every week.

I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.

Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.

Disagree, but that's okay. The league has 2 bench spots and I have Adams + Allen as weekly starts at WR. The decision was Allen Robinson, or Justin Jefferson at flex. Jefferson had 5/8 single digit games and Robinson had 1/9. In a 3-round play-off bracket I'll take the guy less likely to lose me the matchup then win.

My team name is 'Final Boss' so I know what I am talking about

[CGW]

He's been a real surprise. I think we knew he was good and could be a Top 20 WR, but I don't think anyone believed his upside is what it is now, which could be a Top-5 startup WR at the end of the season.

He's a smooth and explosive route runner. Love watching his games.

I don't think he's WR1 in Dynasty though, not that it matters because the position is so deep that drafting someone like Jefferson at #1 really doesn't give you any sort of advantage in winning or building a team.

But, he's been really, really good.

I'm shocked that this is the first time someone has mentioned this. So much talk of DK, AJB, CeeDee, JJ as the top dynasty WR. In reality, any of them could be at the top, but any given year 10-15 other WR will outscore most of the guys listed above. There's not a massive positional advantage to justify some of the prices I've seen. And I'm one who builds rosters mainly through WRs first.

JJ has been a great surprise for the Vikings. Hes athletic and a great route runner. Plays with confidence that is unusual for rookies. His biggest limiting factor is going to be the Vikings offense. I should went after him harder than I did a few weeks ago.

[JBurn244]

They always say talent over situation, but as a Thielen and now JJ owner, I am really starting to detest the MIN passing game for fantasy purposes even more this year. Sure, last night was great, and it will be really hard to bench JJ next week.

...which most certainly means a Cousins 12 for 19 stat line is immanent, with each pass catcher going roughly 3 for 30. Doh!

[Jigga94]

I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.

Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.

Disagree, but that's okay. The league has 2 bench spots and I have Adams + Allen as weekly starts at WR. The decision was Allen Robinson, or Justin Jefferson at flex. Jefferson had 5/8 single digit games and Robinson had 1/9. In a 3-round play-off bracket I'll take the guy less likely to lose me the matchup then win.

My team name is 'Final Boss' so I know what I am talking about

Maybe specify that it's a 2 bench spot league next time to get more appropriate responses? That's much different than the standard. Especially when we are on a dynasty forum. Good luck

[Vcize]

You could make a good argument that he is WR #1 in the class, and his play/production certainly back that up. But I genuinely don't see any reasonable argument for having him as the dynasty WR #1. Simply put, he hasn't shown enough.

I think we have enough of a sample size to say, DK Metcalf is absolutely a stud. He is playing and winning outside, inside, and he is doing it with the attention of the defense. He is 22 years old, the best athlete, with *good* route running, and plenty of time to grow. The intangible though, is the attitude, the swagger.

I’m planting the flag, he is my dynasty WR #1.

This is something you can work with, though.

How does Metcalf get a pass here? Jefferson didn’t have a full offseason, and doing more than Metcalf did his rookie year, with a lesser QB.

So now we should judge all the current WR's based on their rookie years and compare those to Jefferson's? You are trying to make the case for the *current overall dynasty WR #1 *. Also, for the foreseeable future, Metcalf's QB is Wilson, and Jefferson's is Kirk, so yes QB situation does in fact matter.

Metcalf: 45rec 816yds 8td
Jefferson: 42rec 762yds 3td

Forget Metcalf's rookie season. Other than TDs, which are volatile, JJ is almost pacing Metcalf THIS YEAR. The year that has vaulted Metcalf into overall dynasty WR1 territory in many people's eyes.

Except JJ is doing it as a rookie on a low volume passing offense, while Metcalf is doing it as a second year player on an historic offense with a QB on pace to throw for 5000 yds and 52 TDs, which is likely the best QB season Metcalf will ever see in his career.

I'm not saying put JJ at dynasty WR1, but people are underrating what he has done this year. And it's not just a numbers thing. He looks really, really good doing it.

[Vcize]

He's been a real surprise. I think we knew he was good and could be a Top 20 WR, but I don't think anyone believed his upside is what it is now, which could be a Top-5 startup WR at the end of the season.

He's a smooth and explosive route runner. Love watching his games.

I don't think he's WR1 in Dynasty though, not that it matters because the position is so deep that drafting someone like Jefferson at #1 really doesn't give you any sort of advantage in winning or building a team.

But, he's been really, really good.

I'm shocked that this is the first time someone has mentioned this. So much talk of DK, AJB, CeeDee, JJ as the top dynasty WR. In reality, any of them could be at the top, but any given year 10-15 other WR will outscore most of the guys listed above. There's not a massive positional advantage to justify some of the prices I've seen. And I'm one who builds rosters mainly through WRs first.

JJ has been a great surprise for the Vikings. Hes athletic and a great route runner. Plays with confidence that is unusual for rookies. His biggest limiting factor is going to be the Vikings offense. I should went after him harder than I did a few weeks ago.

No one is drafting any of those guys because of their current production. People are drafting them highly because they are projecting them to continue growing into truly dominant fantasy WRs.

And I say that as someone who typically builds through RBs. But people taking a swing at these guys are taking a swing at getting a 22 year old Julio or TO or Megatron.

[waynesworld1234]

Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.

Disagree, but that's okay. The league has 2 bench spots and I have Adams + Allen as weekly starts at WR. The decision was Allen Robinson, or Justin Jefferson at flex. Jefferson had 5/8 single digit games and Robinson had 1/9. In a 3-round play-off bracket I'll take the guy less likely to lose me the matchup then win.

My team name is 'Final Boss' so I know what I am talking about

Maybe specify that it's a 2 bench spot league next time to get more appropriate responses? That's much different than the standard. Especially when we are on a dynasty forum. Good luck

Yeah, sorry. I guess I wasn't looking for feedback on my move, so I got defensive! My point was more so that I didn't feel comfortable with JJ as a weekly start and backed my opinion with a roster move.

Anyway - I think JJ will be a stud. If I had him on my team I'd be ecstatic (especially with a late draft pick). That said, I wouldn't take him as the overall WR1 in a startup. I'd sooner have Metcalf for sure and it's debatable between Hill, Thomas, AJB, Ridley, Lamb, and Adams.

[thebeast]

This class has a lot of great rookie WRs and I’m not even sure Jefferson is the best in the class, but he is certainly in the discussion. I think an argument could be made for Lamb, Claypool, and Jefferson, not to mention we are just seeing Reagor and Pittman back from injuries. For me it’s too early to tell, but if I had to pick one right now I’d pick Claypool as the guy because for me he had the most upside.

[gogobradyarm]

How does Metcalf get a pass here? Jefferson didn’t have a full offseason, and doing more than Metcalf did his rookie year, with a lesser QB.

So now we should judge all the current WR's based on their rookie years and compare those to Jefferson's? You are trying to make the case for the *current overall dynasty WR #1 *. Also, for the foreseeable future, Metcalf's QB is Wilson, and Jefferson's is Kirk, so yes QB situation does in fact matter.

Metcalf: 45rec 816yds 8td
Jefferson: 42rec 762yds 3td

Forget Metcalf's rookie season. Other than TDs, which are volatile, JJ is almost pacing Metcalf THIS YEAR. The year that has vaulted Metcalf into overall dynasty WR1 territory in many people's eyes.

Except JJ is doing it as a rookie on a low volume passing offense, while Metcalf is doing it as a second year player on an historic offense with a QB on pace to throw for 5000 yds and 52 TDs, which is likely the best QB season Metcalf will ever see in his career.

I'm not saying put JJ at dynasty WR1, but people are underrating what he has done this year. And it's not just a numbers thing. He looks really, really good doing it.

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