AJ Brown Official Discussion Thread

[dark_knite03]

I was really, really low on this class, but AJ and Hollywood were the two WR's that really stood out to me the most. So far so good, though I definitely didn't imagine AJ being this good so soon.

I'm not sure about the claims that Brown is going to be a perennial WR1/Top-5 WR though. So much of that depends on whether Tannehill is this level of QB going forward. Even if he's not, I still like Brown a lot. Clean routes, good releases, size, good hands, YAC, and I still don't think they've given him the mismatches he can exploit from the slot yet.

Not sure about that look at what Nuk has done. His second best season to date was with Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett slinging him the rock. Elite talent will overcome the situation.

[stoneghost28]

This garbage passing game that's holding him back has been one of the best in the league since Tannehill took over. That Tannehill might not repeat this performance seems perfectly likely, but the idea that Brown has been held back by garbage QB play this season is laughable.

It's called cherry picking or to be more charitable, betting a helluvalot in a string of games since late October, when I said "garbage," I was trying to underline that Tennessee was horrible under Mariota, has not been good w/throwing the ball under Vrabel, and AJ Brown had done this precisely in a situation that caused his draft adp to drop to twice as low as its initial valuation leading to the draft (the perception that Tennessee was a near worst case scenario for landing spot). Yes, Tannehill has had an outlier half+ season, but I'm not betting ANYTHING on a team and a passing game that's got a sample size of what 9 or 10 games That's what's laughable. Especially when I have another what, 22 or 23 games of this regime to look at, and freaking 7 other seasons of Tannehill?

As for Brown he had perhaps the worst opening day starter at QB throwing him passes through mid October. I'm guessing that didn't help him that much, as for Tannehill, he's been league average or worse for his entire career until the last two months or so. Kinda gonna weight that sample size more heavily than the winter and late fall of '19. I get that the offense has been very productive, it's kind of hard to avoid noticing it, but are you really buying this?

I'm buying AJ Brown because he's been this ever since he set foot at Ole Miss. I'm not buying any other parts of it until there's a bigger sample size across multiple seasons.

[stoneghost28]

I was really, really low on this class, but AJ and Hollywood were the two WR's that really stood out to me the most. So far so good, though I definitely didn't imagine AJ being this good so soon.

I'm not sure about the claims that Brown is going to be a perennial WR1/Top-5 WR though. So much of that depends on whether Tannehill is this level of QB going forward. Even if he's not, I still like Brown a lot. Clean routes, good releases, size, good hands, YAC, and I still don't think they've given him the mismatches he can exploit from the slot yet.

I missed on Marquise Brown because I just couldn't handle his size. He's like one of two WR's in the last decade or so literally that rail thin to actually make it. My bet against him was that his production wouldn't hold up long term because of injuries, so it's not a miss yet (the bet is that he won't be able to stay healthy) but he's doing better than I expected. You were just betting on the talent and not worried about the outlier size issue?

[stoneghost28]

He was my WR1, but didn't trust my rookie WR evals enough (thanks Corey Davis) to be more bullish and trade up for him this May.

That just sucks.

Reminds of the 2017-2018 offseason where I had acquired five shares of McCaffrey in my, I think 9 leagues at the time (2 rso, 1 keeper, like 5 or so dynasty, I think I got the # right-but it was definitely five shares of McCaffrey). I traded 1 McCaffrey share the same month I drafted and the other four in the spring of 2018 fearing the Panthers were never going to give him enough touches out of concern that he wasn't quite good enough/big enough for inside run bell cow work. I lost EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE TRADES. Obviously really, but I mean, in the fullness of time, they weren't even close. The only saving grace to the trades is that I used the picks acquired mostly on Nick Chubb (in one case on Sony Michel, who I later flipped along with Evan Engram and a 4th for 1.06 last year (Miles Sanders via trade up), and a 2020 1st (ended up being 1.05) and a 2021 2nd (belongs to a team that slotted in at 1.01 this year).

I need to just go back and look at those trades and eat it because they were in one case, a total disaster, and in the others, harmed what could have been multiyear title winners, turning them into just contenders.

[Cameron Giles]

I was really, really low on this class, but AJ and Hollywood were the two WR's that really stood out to me the most. So far so good, though I definitely didn't imagine AJ being this good so soon.

I'm not sure about the claims that Brown is going to be a perennial WR1/Top-5 WR though. So much of that depends on whether Tannehill is this level of QB going forward. Even if he's not, I still like Brown a lot. Clean routes, good releases, size, good hands, YAC, and I still don't think they've given him the mismatches he can exploit from the slot yet.

Not sure about that look at what Nuk has done. His second best season to date was with Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett slinging him the rock. Elite talent will overcome the situation.

Don't get me wrong, I really like A.J. Brown. Do I think he's an elite talent? I don't know about that, so I'm going to pump the brakes on that until proven otherwise.

[Cameron Giles]

I was really, really low on this class, but AJ and Hollywood were the two WR's that really stood out to me the most. So far so good, though I definitely didn't imagine AJ being this good so soon.

I'm not sure about the claims that Brown is going to be a perennial WR1/Top-5 WR though. So much of that depends on whether Tannehill is this level of QB going forward. Even if he's not, I still like Brown a lot. Clean routes, good releases, size, good hands, YAC, and I still don't think they've given him the mismatches he can exploit from the slot yet.

I missed on Marquise Brown because I just couldn't handle his size. He's like one of two WR's in the last decade or so literally that rail thin to actually make it. My bet against him was that his production wouldn't hold up long term because of injuries, so it's not a miss yet (the bet is that he won't be able to stay healthy) but he's doing better than I expected. You were just betting on the talent and not worried about the outlier size issue?

I think one thing that people just have to get comfortable with is that size at the WR position is not a necessity anymore to be successful. That's not to say that someone who's 5'2 can be a good WR, but it means that 5'8-5'11 is no longer a legitimate knock these days. I don't really care about the historic outliers, because it's clear that the game has evolved. We're seeing more 5'9-5'11, 165-180 WRs succeed. The historic data has more to do with the fact that a lot of those players just weren't any good.

Hollywood is just really good at football. He can get open at any level of the field, he gets great releases, knows how to play at different speeds to create separation and throw DB's off balance with ease. He's an absolute stud.

[Straycatz2]

I like brown a lot and think be will be really good but people need to pump the breaks a bit. This has been a perfect scenario for him:

Is Tannehill really a top 5 qb like his numbers show since he started? Or is Tannehill just having a abnormal season like we've seen with foles, fitzmagic, etc have had in the past (capable of having a good season) and then revert back to their true self later?

There was literally no other reliable receiving option available on the team. Not much from te, no receiving back, other wr underperformed. A draft at any of those positions or existing guys improving could change targets.

YAC, has been crazy. Maybe it's real but seems could be easily like kittles 2018 season. Kittles had crazy YAC and most ppl said that was unsustainable and while kittles is still very good, his YAC has definitely dipped.

Brown will be very good but also it was a perfect storm for him as well.

[DonJulio]

A.J. Brown will be a top 5 WR in 2020.

[hoos89]

Alright, DK Metcalf's thread is at 65 pages but AJB is on a 96/1560/21 pace in 3 healthy games this season and only has 6 pages??? Let's get this man's hype thread rolling again.

AJ Brown = DK Metcalf.

[Sriracha]

Alright, DK Metcalf's thread is at 65 pages but AJB is on a 96/1560/21 pace in 3 healthy games this season and only has 6 pages??? Let's get this man's hype thread going.

AJ Brown = DK Metcalf.

Honestly, not sure why DK gets so much more talk.

AJB and DK are both top 5 dynasty WRs.

[lic217]

I had Brown rated a lot higher coming out and still prefer him, but not nearly as much.

[PTW32]

Alright, DK Metcalf's thread is at 65 pages but AJB is on a 96/1560/21 pace in 3 healthy games this season and only has 6 pages??? Let's get this man's hype thread going.

AJ Brown = DK Metcalf.

Honestly, not sure why DK gets so much more talk.

AJB and DK are both top 5 dynasty WRs.

I agree but my guess is the disparity comes from 1 being tied to Wilson and the other tied to Tannehill

[burntfire]

I think AJB is the more technical of the two. Give DK a year or two and I believe he'll be an All-World WR.

[hoos89]

Alright, DK Metcalf's thread is at 65 pages but AJB is on a 96/1560/21 pace in 3 healthy games this season and only has 6 pages??? Let's get this man's hype thread going.

AJ Brown = DK Metcalf.

Honestly, not sure why DK gets so much more talk.

AJB and DK are both top 5 dynasty WRs.

I agree but my guess is the disparity comes from 1 being tied to Wilson and the other tied to Tannehill

You say that like being tied to Tannehill is a bad thing. He's no Wilson, but he's been a plus QB since taking over for Mariota.

[jcc6fd]

The shift in offensive philosophy to a pass heavy one in Sea coupled with a very run heavy offense in Tennessee likely is a factor in the disparity of hype.

But the biggest reason is almost certainly that AJB wasn’t playing due to injury. His rookie year was phenomenal, and I expect great things to continue.