Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[AussieMate]

Wow

Draft Capital
Film Study
Analytics

ALL MATTER

Everyone will research a bit differently. Only the fools believe there is one system.

Don’t be the fools!

My take is Taylor is a slightly above average RB today. He could develop into a fine RB but today he is a rookie finding his way and learning to play in a man’s game.

He isn’t a stud yet by any measure. He is flashing both upside and average.

Vision is suspect at this point IMO

Preach

[Krypto_King]

Glowinski looks like doodoo. OL not living up to rep and Rivers looking like he's heaving bricks every drop back are the real issues.

[jman3134]

Love rotoworld so called experts asserting that 'It can be argued that Wilkins has played better on fewer snaps.' I certainly haven't seen every snap, but what I did see was shockingly poor play by Wilkins. Am I missing something? If it is debateable, I might need to consider selling...

[Lumps]

Wow

Draft Capital
Film Study
Analytics

ALL MATTER

Everyone will research a bit differently. Only the fools believe there is one system.

Don’t be the fools!

My take is Taylor is a slightly above average RB today. He could develop into a fine RB but today he is a rookie finding his way and learning to play in a man’s game.

He isn’t a stud yet by any measure. He is flashing both upside and average.

Vision is suspect at this point IMO

I have had a theory that the RBs that comes from schools where the linemen are dominant compared to the competition, struggle with vision. I think that may have been the issue with the failed Wisconsin RBs. You can succeed without good vision when the holes can fit a semi through.

I have nothing to back this up. I would definitely be interested in something on the subject though.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Love rotoworld so called experts asserting that 'It can be argued that Wilkins has played better on fewer snaps.' I certainly haven't seen every snap, but what I did see was shockingly poor play by Wilkins. Am I missing something? If it is debateable, I might need to consider selling...

I don’t think this is the case. Taylor has been slightly below average in terms of efficiency and slightly above what you’d expect from a replacement level back in terms of value. Wilkins has been much worse.

Rushing DVOA:
Taylor -3.3%
Hines -23.7%
Wilkins -24.3%

Receiving DVOA:
Taylor 13.6%
Hines 11.6%
Wilkins... hasn’t received the 4 targets he’d need to qualify.

By the way, here are the big 5 rookie RBs:
Rushing DVOA
Taylor -3.3%
Helaire -12.9%
Dobbins 65.5%!!!
Swift 12.8%
Akers -15.4%

Receiving DVOA
Taylor 13.6%
Helaire -5.3%
Swift 42%!
Dobbins 17.3%
Akers... fewer than 4 targets.

I wouldn’t sell Taylor... but this might be an opportunity to buy Dobbins or Swift.

[jman3134]

Excuse my ignorance: dvoa is on a per touch basis? If so, wouldn't volume impact per touch efficiency to determine value over avg?

[OhCruelestRanter]

Excuse my ignorance: dvoa is on a per touch basis? If so, wouldn't volume impact per touch efficiency to determine value over avg?

Yes, although DVOA, their efficiency metric, is over a baseline of the average player and expressed as a percentage. DYAR, their value metric, is over a baseline of the replacement level player (which is worse than league average) and expressed as yards added over that baseline.

[jman3134]

Excuse my ignorance: dvoa is on a per touch basis? If so, wouldn't volume impact per touch efficiency to determine value over avg?

Yes, although DVOA, their efficiency metric, is over a baseline of the average player and expressed as a percentage. DYAR, their value metric, is over a baseline of the replacement level player (which is worse than league average) and expressed as yards added over that baseline.

I understand and I think this is great to identify potential breakouts as you have illustrated. My hesitancy would be comparing Dobbins to Taylor, given the heavier workload (but clearly that is not what you are doing). In the right context, as you have said, this makes sense. What I would be interested in seeing is the DVOA for all RB starters to really see a comparison. How many have positive DVOA and is this indicative of production value (do they deserve to be a starter?), or moreso suggestive that a team may need to scale down their current workload?

I am more familiar with sabermetrics in basketball.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Excuse my ignorance: dvoa is on a per touch basis? If so, wouldn't volume impact per touch efficiency to determine value over avg?

Yes, although DVOA, their efficiency metric, is over a baseline of the average player and expressed as a percentage. DYAR, their value metric, is over a baseline of the replacement level player (which is worse than league average) and expressed as yards added over that baseline.

I understand and I think this is great to identify potential breakouts as you have illustrated. My hesitancy would be comparing Dobbins to Taylor, given the heavier workload (but clearly that is not what you are doing). In the right context, as you have said, this makes sense. What I would be interested in seeing is the DVOA for all RB starters to really see a comparison. How many have positive DVOA and is this indicative of production value (do they deserve to be a starter?), or moreso suggestive that a team may need to scale down their current workload?

I am more familiar with sabermetrics in basketball.

Absolutely! Great points. Here’s the data: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2020
Dobbins’ mark is obviously on a very small sample, but it’s the best one in football. Swift’s receiving production even in his limited role has been stellar- that’s why I’m really looking to buy him right now.

[jman3134]

Thanks for this. Surprised by Josh Jacobs and Zeke. Must be a telegraphed run% in addition to pure volume. It isn't altogether shocking for Zeke because Dallas' o-line are not the world beaters of year's past.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Thanks for this. Surprised by Josh Jacobs and Zeke. Must be a telegraphed run% in addition to pure volume. It isn't altogether shocking for Zeke because Dallas' o-line are not the world beaters of year's past.

Yeah, it turns out massive OL turnover is bad. Is Jacobs hurt?

[Cowboysfan33]

I haven’t read the whole thread, so sorry if something else already mentioned it but not only is J.Taylor a rookie but he’s also playing in an offense that scares no one vertically. Rivers is washed up and the opposing defenses can pretty much play a much smaller field(20 yards in basically) so even though he hasn’t looked “great”, I feel like if and when the Colts get a QB upgrade, that will make a huge difference. I can’t imagine them going into 2021 with Rivers as their starting QB.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Wow

Draft Capital
Film Study
Analytics

ALL MATTER

Everyone will research a bit differently. Only the fools believe there is one system.

Don’t be the fools!

My take is Taylor is a slightly above average RB today. He could develop into a fine RB but today he is a rookie finding his way and learning to play in a man’s game.

He isn’t a stud yet by any measure. He is flashing both upside and average.

Vision is suspect at this point IMO

I have had a theory that the RBs that comes from schools where the linemen are dominant compared to the competition, struggle with vision. I think that may have been the issue with the failed Wisconsin RBs. You can succeed without good vision when the holes can fit a semi through.

I have nothing to back this up. I would definitely be interested in something on the subject though.

Melvin Gordon was pretty bad but after a couple of years he started to look a lot better. Taylor will be given the same amount of rope that Gordon was given and I suspect Taylor will look much better in a year or two.

[Ice]

Wow

Draft Capital
Film Study
Analytics

ALL MATTER

Everyone will research a bit differently. Only the fools believe there is one system.

Don’t be the fools!

My take is Taylor is a slightly above average RB today. He could develop into a fine RB but today he is a rookie finding his way and learning to play in a man’s game.

He isn’t a stud yet by any measure. He is flashing both upside and average.

Vision is suspect at this point IMO

I have had a theory that the RBs that comes from schools where the linemen are dominant compared to the competition, struggle with vision. I think that may have been the issue with the failed Wisconsin RBs. You can succeed without good vision when the holes can fit a semi through.

I have nothing to back this up. I would definitely be interested in something on the subject though.

Melvin Gordon was pretty bad but after a couple of years he started to look a lot better. Taylor will be given the same amount of rope that Gordon was given and I suspect Taylor will look much better in a year or two.

Both solid points. When a back runs through gaping holes all the time, issues can be overlooked. That said, he has plenty of tools. I actually think his vision is pretty good right in front him but his second level vision needs work which will help as learns the passing game.

My concern with him was as a pass catching back and I don't think he is very shifty at the line of scrimmage. He might become okay as a receiver and blocker but that simply wasn't how he was used in college. Looks to me he is faster than quick. His game speed isn't his track speed which is a minor concern.

Ultimately I rated him 4th but its a strong group. Don't think Rivers is doing him any favors. His arm is shot and defenders play pretty close to the line of scrimmage given his lack of velocity.

Gordon developed into a solid 3 down back. Taylor might develop into that but there is also a risk that he becomes more of a 2 down player as the years roll by which is the main reason he fell in my fantasy rankings.

I don't own him anywhere but I do own a few shares of CEH, Dobbins, and Swift mainly because they had less question marks in my valuation.

[Bronco Billy]

The next time FFers bitch about Preseason (or Training Camp and OTAs) they might think back to this year with all the injuries, the slow starts by rookies, and some of the really sloppy play and rethink that position.