Buy Low/Sell High

[Patsfan86]

Sriracha hit on a point others seem to have missed- "His value fluctuates wildly based on his owner though, so he's worth a shot." The suggestions aren't mine, but merely options based on league dynamics, the viewpoint of the buyer and the seller. I "bought high" on McLaurin about this time last year because I was sold. That league puts high value on young WRs, and productive ones even more. I knew I has to get him before his owner put a depth grip on him.

Pre and post draft, Justin Jefferson was talked about as having a pro game. Putting that type of player in a primo opportunity for snaps and you can get a young WR with a chance for high level, immediate production. In the right league, you may need to buy now or risk not having an chance at his currently low value. And no, before anyone dismisses all that, I don't own him anywhere.

Calvin Ridley- heard one stat that's he's the only player with minimum 100 scrimmage yards each game. If he keeps this up, will his value jump into top 5 WR territory? He's not being valued at that right now, but if you think he will be, now's the time to buy.

People here are mentioning selling James Robinson for a 1st. I expect that's for 1 RB leagues. Imagine what his value is in a 2 RB league? I have Robinson on a 1RB contender and not selling. I also have him on a 2RB rebuilder and I'm hunting for the right deal. I'm only willing to sell to avoid risk uncertainty. If I can't find a deal I like and he continues producing in tougher matchups, I'm holding and the price is jacking up hard. In that league, now is the time to buy, if you believe his talent.

Just because you wouldn't buy Jefferson or Robinson right now doesn't mean others would- or would be willing to sell.

Just acquired Jefferson and this is very good to see, i bought high on him but sold low. What i mean by that is i was able to get Jefferson, a first and Baker Mayfield for Lamar. Lamars value is low at this moment and Jeffersons is high. The owner was needy at QB and i was able to pull this off so im very happy right now. Some league mates are annoyed because the team i sold Lamar to is stacked already but this seemed like something i couldnt pass up on. Especially with everything ive read about Jefferson.

I think this is the opposite of what you're supposed to do. You bought high on Jefferson and sold low on Lamar. I hope it works out for you.

Im also 0-3, team is looking bad at the moment and im rebuilding. I understand your thinking and i know you are a Lamar fan but i think for my situation i got a very good deal.

[hoos89]

Strongly disagree with buying high on Jefferson and Ridley.

Agree with Diontae, but that ship has probably sailed. His trade value right now seems to be a little below AJB which is a bit on the high side.

His value fluctuates wildly based on his owner though, so he's worth a shot.

My buy highs right now would be: Mo Alie Cox, Noah Fant, DK Metcalf (probably too late), Allen Robinson (if you can still get a WR2 price on him), Cam Newton (those that think he's a mirage), Stefon Diggs.

He should be nowhere near AJB in my opinion.

Seriously he had 59/680/5 (plus 41 rushing yards) as a rookie and this season has a 0.9 point game, a 9.7 point game and a 23.2 point game. Are people really moving up to AJB territory JUST on the strength of that 23.2 game in spite of everything else? Has he looked THAT impressive that you'll move him up to AJB value in spite of the worse production? He's also a year older than AJB. Where is this hype coming from?

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Strongly disagree with buying high on Jefferson and Ridley.

Agree with Diontae, but that ship has probably sailed. His trade value right now seems to be a little below AJB which is a bit on the high side.

His value fluctuates wildly based on his owner though, so he's worth a shot.

My buy highs right now would be: Mo Alie Cox, Noah Fant, DK Metcalf (probably too late), Allen Robinson (if you can still get a WR2 price on him), Cam Newton (those that think he's a mirage), Stefon Diggs.

He should be nowhere near AJB in my opinion.

Seriously he had 59/680/5 (plus 41 rushing yards) as a rookie and this season has a 0.9 point game, a 9.7 point game and a 23.2 point game. Are people really moving up to AJB territory JUST on the strength of that 23.2 game in spite of everything else? Has he looked THAT impressive that you'll move him up to AJB value in spite of the worse production? He's also a year older than AJB. Where is this hype coming from?

It's week 4 and AJB has missed a couple games. Stick a fork in him. His career is over.

[jjleurquin]

I agree. Robinsons price right now should probably be what akers and swift were coming in. I'm not sure that many people would agree with paying that which means it's probably best to hold.

That's wrong. We've gone over why plenty in the other threads. Just chiming in case someone sees this and thinks they should ship off Swift or Akers for Robinson.

If you can get Akers, Swift or a 1st though I'd be all over it. Unless you are a contender who needs him do to injuries.

I'm not sure how you can be wrong about something we don't know about yet. Again I said most people probably wouldn't pay that, but that's the value you should be getting if you were to deal him. This makes him a hold for me and I'm sure most people would hold because they aren't going to get enough.

Robinson has produced at this level. Akers and Swift haven't. They of course will get more opportunities don't get me wrong but we shouldn't just write off Robinson with our only argument being that he's an UDFA after what we've seen so far. This is a simple sunk cost fallacy.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Oh i agree if you can get them for Jrob you should. I wouldnt send them for Jrob. Too early to call it sunk cost imo, though i do prefer to have my rbs start strong

[Sriracha]

I agree. Robinsons price right now should probably be what akers and swift were coming in. I'm not sure that many people would agree with paying that which means it's probably best to hold.

That's wrong. We've gone over why plenty in the other threads. Just chiming in case someone sees this and thinks they should ship off Swift or Akers for Robinson.

If you can get Akers, Swift or a 1st though I'd be all over it. Unless you are a contender who needs him do to injuries.

I'm not sure how you can be wrong about something we don't know about yet. Again I said most people probably wouldn't pay that, but that's the value you should be getting if you were to deal him. This makes him a hold for me and I'm sure most people would hold because they aren't going to get enough.

Robinson has produced at this level. Akers and Swift haven't. They of course will get more opportunities don't get me wrong but we shouldn't just write off Robinson with our only argument being that he's an UDFA after what we've seen so far. This is a simple sunk cost fallacy.

I can't say that I agree with this take. It's been 3 games where he's seen a near 100% opportunity share because Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo (2 RBs that split 1st team reps with him in training camp) are on IR

That should not overcome 3 years of college production vs power 5 conferences, and a chasm of draft capital difference.

2nd day Rookie RBs have historically started out slow as they earn their team's trust and adjust to the NFL game. Devaluing Swift and Akers at this point feels extremely reactionary.. if anyone's giving me a 1st or a RB prospect like Akers or Swift for Robinson that's a heist.

[jjleurquin]

That's wrong. We've gone over why plenty in the other threads. Just chiming in case someone sees this and thinks they should ship off Swift or Akers for Robinson.

If you can get Akers, Swift or a 1st though I'd be all over it. Unless you are a contender who needs him do to injuries.

I'm not sure how you can be wrong about something we don't know about yet. Again I said most people probably wouldn't pay that, but that's the value you should be getting if you were to deal him. This makes him a hold for me and I'm sure most people would hold because they aren't going to get enough.

Robinson has produced at this level. Akers and Swift haven't. They of course will get more opportunities don't get me wrong but we shouldn't just write off Robinson with our only argument being that he's an UDFA after what we've seen so far. This is a simple sunk cost fallacy.

I can't say that I agree with this take. It's been 3 games where he's seen a near 100% opportunity share because Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo (2 RBs that split 1st team reps with him in training camp) are on IR

That should not overcome 3 years of college production vs power 5 conferences, and a chasm of draft capital difference.

2nd day Rookie RBs have historically started out slow as they earn their team's trust and adjust to the NFL game. Devaluing Swift and Akers at this point feels extremely reactionary.. if anyone's giving me a 1st or a RB prospect like Akers or Swift for Robinson that's a heist.

You aren't devaluing Swift or Akers though. Your reevaluating and assessing the price on a player that has one of the most unique starts we've seen for a RB. You can say whatever you want about his reason for getting so many touches, but he has proven that he can handle it, so Ozigbo won't get more than 5 carries a game if he gets any at all. Armstead isn't worth considering at this point. He wasn't there all preseason and it doesn't look like he'll be playing this season in any fashion.

Undrafted guys don't start their first game. The future looks very bright for him, the easy thing to do is just write him off as an UDFA, but the moves the Jags made combined with the opportunity he's getting and what he's doing with it is what you'd expect from an elite RB prospect. I will buy on the way up.

[jjleurquin]

Oh i agree if you can get them for Jrob you should. I wouldnt send them for Jrob. Too early to call it sunk cost imo, though i do prefer to have my rbs start strong

I wouldn't give up swift, but I would give up Akers or a late 1st.

[FantasyFreak]

Oh i agree if you can get them for Jrob you should. I wouldnt send them for Jrob. Too early to call it sunk cost imo, though i do prefer to have my rbs start strong

I wouldn't give up swift, but I would give up Akers or a late 1st.

Wow. No chance I'd give up a late first for the guy after 3 games.

[jjleurquin]

Oh i agree if you can get them for Jrob you should. I wouldnt send them for Jrob. Too early to call it sunk cost imo, though i do prefer to have my rbs start strong

I wouldn't give up swift, but I would give up Akers or a late 1st.

Wow. No chance I'd give up a late first for the guy after 3 games.

I mean it all depends on what you think you'd be getting with that pick. Odds say 50% success with that pick, I think Robinsons likelihood of success is greater than 50% and if you were to draft a RB there they likely won't be getting the opportunity Robinson is off the bat.

[FantasyFreak]

I wouldn't give up swift, but I would give up Akers or a late 1st.

Wow. No chance I'd give up a late first for the guy after 3 games.

I mean it all depends on what you think you'd be getting with that pick. Odds say 50% success with that pick, I think Robinsons likelihood of success is greater than 50% and if you were to draft a RB there they likely won't be getting the opportunity Robinson is off the bat.

Depends what you consider "success".

[jjleurquin]

Wow. No chance I'd give up a late first for the guy after 3 games.

I mean it all depends on what you think you'd be getting with that pick. Odds say 50% success with that pick, I think Robinsons likelihood of success is greater than 50% and if you were to draft a RB there they likely won't be getting the opportunity Robinson is off the bat.

Depends what you consider "success".

well whatever it is you define as success I think JRob has a higher probability of reaching it than whatever RB you would be selecting with a late 1st in the 2021 draft.

[FantasyFreak]

I mean it all depends on what you think you'd be getting with that pick. Odds say 50% success with that pick, I think Robinsons likelihood of success is greater than 50% and if you were to draft a RB there they likely won't be getting the opportunity Robinson is off the bat.

Depends what you consider "success".

well whatever it is you define as success I think JRob has a higher probability of reaching it than whatever RB you would be selecting with a late 1st in the 2021 draft.

What about a WR? Or using that first to trade for another player? In the context of a first vs Robinson, there are a lot more options than just drafting a RB with it. I'll take the first as the better asset, personally. I feel it's more insulated at this point, and will carry more overall trade value right now. 12 people out of 12 will value a first at a first, and be interested in acquiring it. Not everybody will value Robinson at a first, or be interested in acquiring him at that price. Obviously if you are trading a first for Robinson, you are looking for his short term production too, though. To each their own.

[jjleurquin]

Depends what you consider "success".

well whatever it is you define as success I think JRob has a higher probability of reaching it than whatever RB you would be selecting with a late 1st in the 2021 draft.

What about a WR? Or using that first to trade for another player? In the context of a first vs Robinson, there are a lot more options than just drafting a RB with it. I'll take the first as the better asset, personally. I feel it's more insulated at this point, and will carry more overall trade value right now. 12 people out of 12 will value a first at a first, and be interested in acquiring it. Not everybody will value Robinson at a first, or be interested in acquiring him at that price. Obviously if you are trading a first for Robinson, you are looking for his short term production too, though. To each their own.

I agree with you, it would be harder to trade Robinson at value. So if having the best trade piece available is your strategy I get that. I look at 1sts through what I would get if I used them and I think Robinson is better than whoever would be picked with the late 1st. However you might also be able to trade the 1.11 for the 2.3 and 2.10 and get more value. If you know your league mates get rookie fever and always want to trade up this is probably a better strategy. Overall though the late 1st by itself if not traded is less valuable to me than Robinson. I don't think it's all about short term either. Typically when RBs start like this their job isn't in question, there's a small amount of risk here, but his long term outlook is better than Akers right now with the emergence of Henderson.

[dark_knite03]

What's the thoughts on Diggs. Currently wr8 in my league. Is it time to sell or can he sustain current production and become a true wr1?