Rookie stock watch

[briank]

A month ago, I would have traded my 2021 1 and 2 for Swift. Now, I’m leery of trading my 2021 1 (projected 3-6) for him.

I'm not a believer in "school XYZ doesnt make good WRs" or team XYZ "cant develop TE talent" but there are two situations I avoid - DET and NE RBs. NE too wild and Detroit just hasnt been able to run the ball since 1997.

Yeah, but DET could have a very different coaching staff soon.

[Jigga94]

A conversation with my die-hard Ravens friend:

"Question for you, and putting any fantasy bias aside - But does it feel to you like the Ravens need to stick to one of the backs more so that they can find rhythm?

... cos to me, that Running game seemed completely disjointed tonight."

And the Running Game not being their to take pressure off Lamar was huge. None of this vaunted 3-headed monster broke a big one tonight.

"Exactly - and I just wonder - if they let one guy settle in to the game more, they might get that."

Honestly? GusBus might have been the better hammer early.

"Yeah. Big Truss hasn't looked spectacular. He's looked fine but not spectacular."

Agreed. Dobbins a maybe - but not road tested enough.

fin
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ravens fans, feel free to sound off.

Ingram looks pedestrian. Gus has always been pedestrian. Not saying go to Dobbins and never look back, but you bring up a good point.

Credit where it's due, KC stopped the run very well. They also set up to contain Lamar well without bringing all out pressure. I don't think the playcalling was good enough to get it done either. And when it was good, the execution wasn't there. Some drops here and there, some bad plays by Lamar and some bad penalties. Can't make simple mistakes against the defending champs

What am I missing here? They ran for 7.5 per carry including Lamar.

Maybe KC didn't stop the run so much as Baltimore stopped themselves when they fell behind... My point was that the RB (Ingram and Gus) didn't look good early on.

Yes, Lamar usually brings the average up with his scrambles and he accounted for over 50% of rushing yards. Ingram did not look that good though. He had opportunities early in the game and KC stopped them. He was the lowest in YPC. Gus busted one long run late in the 3rd when trailing by 2 scores that brought his average up. KC was already playing deep, containing Lamar and not stacking the box.

Play calling was critical though. The Ravens do not play well from behind and abandon the run game too early. It was efficient due to Lamar and a long carry that caught KC off guard. Otherwise, KC played solid defense and I'm not sure why Baltimore didn't stick to the run game. 12 carries from the RB is not a winning formula for this team. The dropped TD don't help either

Back to the point of this thread... If Ingram continues to be pedestrian, I think Dobbins gets more work eventually but they still like Gus and it's going to be messy for a while. I will say Dobbins is the best pass catcher of the 3 and it's not close

[MrUbuto]

A month ago, I would have traded my 2021 1 and 2 for Swift. Now, I’m leery of trading my 2021 1 (projected 3-6) for him.

I'm not a believer in "school XYZ doesnt make good WRs" or team XYZ "cant develop TE talent" but there are two situations I avoid - DET and NE RBs. NE too wild and Detroit just hasnt been able to run the ball since 1997.

Yeah, but DET could have a very different coaching staff soon.

This is such a silly mindset so many people fall in to. A team is nothing but a logo. Coaching staffs change, players change philosophies change.

If you expected immediate impact from ANY rookie more often then not you're going to be disappointed. There are of course a few outliers.

Swift may take a year, maybe 2?

2 years is a lifetime in fantasy football, the lions could be a smash mouth team playing in the NFC final by then. The game moves fast.

[ManuManu]

I'm not a believer in "school XYZ doesnt make good WRs" or team XYZ "cant develop TE talent" but there are two situations I avoid - DET and NE RBs. NE too wild and Detroit just hasnt been able to run the ball since 1997.

Yeah, but DET could have a very different coaching staff soon.

This is such a silly mindset so many people fall in to. A team is nothing but a logo. Coaching staffs change, players change philosophies change.

If you expected immediate impact from ANY rookie more often then not you're going to be disappointed. There are of course a few outliers.

Swift may take a year, maybe 2?

2 years is a lifetime in fantasy football, the lions could be a smash mouth team playing in the NFC final by then. The game moves fast.

I think context matters. I drafted Dobbins expecting 2021 to be the year he takes over the backfield due to Ingram already being in place. The Lions grabbed an over-the-hill RB a week before the season and have made him the lead back while cutting Swift’s playing time dramatically.

I wouldn’t panic sell Swift if I owned him, but I’m not terribly excited to trade for him at the moment either.

[jjleurquin]

Ingram looks pedestrian. Gus has always been pedestrian. Not saying go to Dobbins and never look back, but you bring up a good point.

Credit where it's due, KC stopped the run very well. They also set up to contain Lamar well without bringing all out pressure. I don't think the playcalling was good enough to get it done either. And when it was good, the execution wasn't there. Some drops here and there, some bad plays by Lamar and some bad penalties. Can't make simple mistakes against the defending champs

What am I missing here? They ran for 7.5 per carry including Lamar.

Maybe KC didn't stop the run so much as Baltimore stopped themselves when they fell behind... My point was that the RB (Ingram and Gus) didn't look good early on.

Yes, Lamar usually brings the average up with his scrambles and he accounted for over 50% of rushing yards. Ingram did not look that good though. He had opportunities early in the game and KC stopped them. He was the lowest in YPC. Gus busted one long run late in the 3rd when trailing by 2 scores that brought his average up. KC was already playing deep, containing Lamar and not stacking the box.

Play calling was critical though. The Ravens do not play well from behind and abandon the run game too early. It was efficient due to Lamar and a long carry that caught KC off guard. Otherwise, KC played solid defense and I'm not sure why Baltimore didn't stick to the run game. 12 carries from the RB is not a winning formula for this team. The dropped TD don't help either

Back to the point of this thread... If Ingram continues to be pedestrian, I think Dobbins gets more work eventually but they still like Gus and it's going to be messy for a while. I will say Dobbins is the best pass catcher of the 3 and it's not close

If we're going to pick about this it's only fair to do it to Dobbins as well. Without his long run he has 9 attempts for 32 yards on the season. really not all that impressive and it brings his average up quite a bit.

What exactly did Ingram and Edwards do that made them look pedestrian though?

[FantasyFreak]

What am I missing here? They ran for 7.5 per carry including Lamar.

Maybe KC didn't stop the run so much as Baltimore stopped themselves when they fell behind... My point was that the RB (Ingram and Gus) didn't look good early on.

Yes, Lamar usually brings the average up with his scrambles and he accounted for over 50% of rushing yards. Ingram did not look that good though. He had opportunities early in the game and KC stopped them. He was the lowest in YPC. Gus busted one long run late in the 3rd when trailing by 2 scores that brought his average up. KC was already playing deep, containing Lamar and not stacking the box.

Play calling was critical though. The Ravens do not play well from behind and abandon the run game too early. It was efficient due to Lamar and a long carry that caught KC off guard. Otherwise, KC played solid defense and I'm not sure why Baltimore didn't stick to the run game. 12 carries from the RB is not a winning formula for this team. The dropped TD don't help either

Back to the point of this thread... If Ingram continues to be pedestrian, I think Dobbins gets more work eventually but they still like Gus and it's going to be messy for a while. I will say Dobbins is the best pass catcher of the 3 and it's not close

If we're going to pick about this it's only fair to do it to Dobbins as well. Without his long run he has 9 attempts for 32 yards on the season. really not all that impressive and it brings his average up quite a bit.

What exactly did Ingram and Edwards do that made them look pedestrian though?

I think Edwards looks good, but you just have to watch the games to see Ingram has lost a step. No chance he's a significant part of this run game next year IMO.

[joeya2001]

Maybe KC didn't stop the run so much as Baltimore stopped themselves when they fell behind... My point was that the RB (Ingram and Gus) didn't look good early on.

Yes, Lamar usually brings the average up with his scrambles and he accounted for over 50% of rushing yards. Ingram did not look that good though. He had opportunities early in the game and KC stopped them. He was the lowest in YPC. Gus busted one long run late in the 3rd when trailing by 2 scores that brought his average up. KC was already playing deep, containing Lamar and not stacking the box.

Play calling was critical though. The Ravens do not play well from behind and abandon the run game too early. It was efficient due to Lamar and a long carry that caught KC off guard. Otherwise, KC played solid defense and I'm not sure why Baltimore didn't stick to the run game. 12 carries from the RB is not a winning formula for this team. The dropped TD don't help either

Back to the point of this thread... If Ingram continues to be pedestrian, I think Dobbins gets more work eventually but they still like Gus and it's going to be messy for a while. I will say Dobbins is the best pass catcher of the 3 and it's not close

If we're going to pick about this it's only fair to do it to Dobbins as well. Without his long run he has 9 attempts for 32 yards on the season. really not all that impressive and it brings his average up quite a bit.

What exactly did Ingram and Edwards do that made them look pedestrian though?

I think Edwards looks good, but you just have to watch the games to see Ingram has lost a step. No chance he's a significant part of this run game next year IMO.

All I can think of is Bret screwed Bret lol

[mild]

I think Edwards looks good, but you just have to watch the games to see Ingram has lost a step. No chance he's a significant part of this run game next year IMO.

Agreed with this assessment. They're just not running with the same volume as last year, either - they're currently averaging 18 RB carries a game through 3 games, down from 25 RB carries a game in 2019. That's a huge difference, a 28% drop in volume. I do expect a course correction.

Rushing first, be it Lamar, or the RB's - was their offensive identity last year. To get back to the "what am I missing here, they're averaging 7.0 yards a carry" comment earlier - exactly, you're not missing anything. This is a rushing team. They have to get back to that.

I still think that shortening the rotation to two backs instead of three would give them more chance to "settle in" to the flow of the game. Every Running Back I've ever heard interviewed has said that they prefer to be "the guy" and that finding your flow on limited carries is a -much- harder proposition in the NFL. It's not an exact science, but it makes sense - your feel for what the other team is doing defensively grows as you get more snaps, and perhaps leads to you being able to break the big one as you feel out "how they're playing you" and where the weak spots potentially are.

[briank]

I'm not a believer in "school XYZ doesnt make good WRs" or team XYZ "cant develop TE talent" but there are two situations I avoid - DET and NE RBs. NE too wild and Detroit just hasnt been able to run the ball since 1997.

Yeah, but DET could have a very different coaching staff soon.

This is such a silly mindset so many people fall in to. A team is nothing but a logo. Coaching staffs change, players change philosophies change.

If you expected immediate impact from ANY rookie more often then not you're going to be disappointed. There are of course a few outliers.

Swift may take a year, maybe 2?

2 years is a lifetime in fantasy football, the lions could be a smash mouth team playing in the NFC final by then. The game moves fast.

They don't need to be a smash mouth team in order for him to be a good fantasy player. The next coaching staff could prefer using 1 guy for the majority of snaps and Swift is well equipped to handle 3 downs. One of the other guys could get injured and make it a 50/50 split which could make him a flex play now. The game does move fast. So many things can happen from week to week. Avoiding specific backfields no matter what is not a winning strategy.

[briank]

Maybe KC didn't stop the run so much as Baltimore stopped themselves when they fell behind... My point was that the RB (Ingram and Gus) didn't look good early on.

Yes, Lamar usually brings the average up with his scrambles and he accounted for over 50% of rushing yards. Ingram did not look that good though. He had opportunities early in the game and KC stopped them. He was the lowest in YPC. Gus busted one long run late in the 3rd when trailing by 2 scores that brought his average up. KC was already playing deep, containing Lamar and not stacking the box.

Play calling was critical though. The Ravens do not play well from behind and abandon the run game too early. It was efficient due to Lamar and a long carry that caught KC off guard. Otherwise, KC played solid defense and I'm not sure why Baltimore didn't stick to the run game. 12 carries from the RB is not a winning formula for this team. The dropped TD don't help either

Back to the point of this thread... If Ingram continues to be pedestrian, I think Dobbins gets more work eventually but they still like Gus and it's going to be messy for a while. I will say Dobbins is the best pass catcher of the 3 and it's not close

If we're going to pick about this it's only fair to do it to Dobbins as well. Without his long run he has 9 attempts for 32 yards on the season. really not all that impressive and it brings his average up quite a bit.

What exactly did Ingram and Edwards do that made them look pedestrian though?

I think Edwards looks good, but you just have to watch the games to see Ingram has lost a step. No chance he's a significant part of this run game next year IMO.

I don't think anyone ever expected him to be a part next year.

[FantasyFreak]

If we're going to pick about this it's only fair to do it to Dobbins as well. Without his long run he has 9 attempts for 32 yards on the season. really not all that impressive and it brings his average up quite a bit.

What exactly did Ingram and Edwards do that made them look pedestrian though?

I think Edwards looks good, but you just have to watch the games to see Ingram has lost a step. No chance he's a significant part of this run game next year IMO.

I don't think anyone ever expected him to be a part next year.

I don't think he'll be part of it the 2nd half of the year, the way he looks. Dobbins looks better, so does Gus.

[Shankopotamus]

Does Herbert look like a stud? I have only seen his box scores and a few highlights due to being a new dad.

[Pac_Eddy]

Does Herbert look like a stud? I have only seen his box scores and a few highlights due to being a new dad.

I have seen some. I think he's a future stud. Looking the part so far.

[Cameron Giles]

Jefferson continues to look excellent. Just a smooth WR.

[DLF3000]

Does Herbert look like a stud? I have only seen his box scores and a few highlights due to being a new dad.

I have seen some. I think he's a future stud. Looking the part so far.

I'm just glad he's keep the Chargers somewhat relevant. Though Ekeler out for a while will hurt. Was fading this team hard with Taylor putting it to sleep like back in Week 1.