Jacksonville backfield, who is the guy?

[SteveMaddensShoes]

The fact that there is debate on whether or not to sell James Robinson for a first is a microcosm of the sheer insanity that is the year 2020.

There is without doubt a glitch in the Matrix.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Yeah, I didn’t really spend the time to think through the math on that one. The point was it’s a free play and I was comparing it to a 3rd (or at least that was what I intended as that’s where the sell conversation started — I get the odds I noted are still a bad comparison). In any case, I woke up this morning to an offer of a first in my inbox, in a 16-team league, and I’m leaning toward accepting it. But as another poster hi set mentioned, he had a cup cake schedule the next four weeks.

I'd smash accept that offer. Turning a 4th rounder or waiver pickup into a first is about as perfect a scenario you could ask for.

Depending on the trajectory of my team I might also accept a 1st, but I’d still personally rather have a quality player during the season.


Commenting on the analogy - it is flawed because we all have different ideas of what the prize is or could be. But imagine it this way.....

we are all playing the lottery - so we all know the pot grows everyday. If someone gave you the option of a free shot at winning the pot (whatever it ended up being) and offered you $10 today, $15 the next day, and $16 next day, and then they only increased the offer by $1 a day as the pot grew?....The question then becomes which is growing more rapidly? The pot or the offer?

Right now the pot is growing way faster than the value of the offer.

The value of the first round draft pick pot will grow every single day from this day forward until the day of your draft. There is a 99% certainty of that. And unless football ends as a sport it will continue that way. James Robinson could also grow in value, though I think we all know it's capped to some degree, even if we disagree what that is. James Robinson will never be worth a top 3 pick next year. I'll atleast set the bar there.

Now here is where everyone that is on the hold Robinson wagon is making a mistake, imo. There is no bottom to the draft picks increase in value. It will not go away. It will not turn to zero. No injury can happen to the pick. Nothing can go wrong until a player is drafted. That pick is in your pocket from now until draft day( or you choose to buy a different player) James Robinson has a floor of ZERO. POOF! Next week he could become worthless. That's reality. When gauging when to sell a guy that could go from hero to zero in one misstep/torn ACL/one bad tackle, and not taking that possibility into account, it is an incredibly risky way to use your assets. I"m really stunned by the lack of awareness that your investment can go to zero by next Monday.

If you are contending and ABSOLUTELY need to start Robinson that's somewhat different. But I'd still rather sell for a 1st and then go add another one for Mixon or Sanders or whoever.

[thebeast]

So, I sold him as part of a bigger deal. The deal was:

Robinson, Boyd, Fuller

For

Chark, Rojo, 2020 1st, 2nd 3rd

I still have three shares left in other leagues.

[CGW]

So, I sold him as part of a bigger deal. The deal was:

Robinson, Boyd, Fuller

For

Chark, Rojo, 2020 1st, 2nd 3rd

I still have three shares left in other leagues.

Nice way to upgrade your WR. Good trade, especially if that 1st ends up mid to early. Ans a bonus - you still get to root for Jacksonville with chark.

[The MAC Machine]

No injury can happen to the pick. Nothing can go wrong until a player is drafted. That pick is in your pocket from now until draft day( or you choose to buy a different player) James Robinson has a floor of ZERO. POOF! Next week he could become worthless.

Hmmmmmmmmm. I like looking at it from that angle. I can get behind the idea of having a more secure/protected asset. I guess for me there is a line. It wouldnt matter if the asset is secure if its not worth it...lets say a 4th rounder. I guess thats where a 2nd rounder can be so polarizing & vexing (for me personally) because depending where the pick is in the 2nd round, for me, the security may or may not be worth it. There’s a huge difference between the 13th and 24th rookie. But with a 1st I would likely pull the trigger sooner rather than later because of that safety net.

Good point. Thanks for sharing

[The MAC Machine]

So, I sold him as part of a bigger deal. The deal was:

Robinson, Boyd, Fuller

For

Chark, Rojo, 2020 1st, 2nd 3rd

I still have three shares left in other leagues.

Yea, this was good. Well done!

[Jigga94]

Jeesh. Ive got Robinson in 2 dynasty and 1 redraft league. His market is crickets for me. In one dynasty league where I dont have him I am in desperate need of an RB and hes not for sale. So annoying.

Did you try offering 2 1sts?

[M-Dub]

The problem with the $1 million roulette analogy is that we have all the requisite information to make that bet. On a standard 0-00 roulette wheel, you have a 1 in 38 chance of hitting any one number. That bet normally pays 36:1, which is how the house makes money over the long haul. However, if you gave me a free $10 roulette spin to win $1 million, I’m getting a 100,000:1 payoff if I win a wager with 38:1 odds. Not only would I take that bet, but I would pull $10 out of my own pocket and double down on it.

Where the analogy breaks down is when you actually look at the fantasy corollaries. So the $1 million basically represents the best possible outcome: James Robinson becomes the next CMC. Cashing out for $10 represents cashing out on Robinson now, presumably for a 2nd. Now obviously, there’s a HUUUUGE gap in value between CMC and a random 2nd, but even then, there’s no way CMC is 100,000 times more valuable than a 2nd round pick. The odds of JRob becoming a truly elite, CMC-level RB are also way worse than 38:1.

If cashing out for a 2nd represents fair value, then the analogy would really be, would you rather have $26,315.79 (1/38 of $1 million) or a “free” roulette spin to win $1 million? In that case, it probably depends a whole lot more on your individual financial situation, just as holding or cashing out on JRob depends a whole lot on your current team situation.

For what it’s worth, I offered a presumed late 2021 2nd for Robinson in a league where I lost CMC and Lindsay, and Mixon is my only healthy RB. I got turned down pretty quickly.

[Bot101]

Jeesh. Ive got Robinson in 2 dynasty and 1 redraft league. His market is crickets for me. In one dynasty league where I dont have him I am in desperate need of an RB and hes not for sale. So annoying.

Did you try offering 2 1sts?

I offered my first born. Went straight to the top.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Jeesh. Ive got Robinson in 2 dynasty and 1 redraft league. His market is crickets for me. In one dynasty league where I dont have him I am in desperate need of an RB and hes not for sale. So annoying.

Did you try offering 2 1sts?

I offered my first born. Went straight to the top.

Not sure that will get it done. Good starting point though.

[Factory of Sadness]

So is he more valuable than he was a week ago or nah?

[FantasyFreak]

So is he more valuable than he was a week ago or nah?

To the right person, yeah. He put up some fantasy points. He's got to be enticing for someone needing short term RB production. Long term, the sample size is too short still, for me to put more value on him. He's sort of in that range where a 2nd probably won't get it done to acquire him, but he's not worth a first. So many players get to that range, it seems. I'd say that's where he is now.