Buy Low/Sell High

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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DLF3000
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Re: Sell high, buy low, always

Postby DLF3000 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:34 pm

saw061600 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:26 pm Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level.
Yeah, that's the gamble right there. Knowing that guys like Barkley exist still gives me pause - he's just so unrealistically good! :ewink:

Someone like Hill though? For all he had going for him, there were always huge red flags.

That said, trade markets also vary greatly from league to league. It's another thing to consider in these crazy value situations.
35 Team Dyn PPR, 3 x Copy SF start 2TE Super Prem (TE 2 PPR, 8pt TD), 6 pt/non-TE TD, 1pt/20 yds pass (300 +3pt), 1pt/10 yds rush/rec (100 +3pt)

Start 12: 1QB 1SFLX 2RB 4WR 2TE 2FLX | 30 Active Roster, unlim Taxi, 3 IR/Out (+) | est. '21 | playoffs '21, '22

QB - J Allen, T Lawrence ...
RB - A Ekeler, S Barkley, J Cook, I Pacheco ...
WR - AJ Brown, C Ridley, G Pickens, C Sutton ...
TE - D Njoku, D Knox ...
® 2024 - | 2025 -

grandmabetty
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Re: Sell high, buy low, always

Postby grandmabetty » Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:50 pm

saw061600 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:26 pm I guess the part that was missed, maybe my post wasn't written well enough, was my inferred belief that Hill was not and never would be "#1 dynasty asset or #1 dynasty WR." If you owned Hill and someone in your league believed he was worth first pick startup, it's time to sell.

Essentially, selling high doesn't mean you sell your proven studs, just because you can make a deal. Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level. When trades involving that player are reaching a level of expected future production that is out of line with ADP and rankings, it's time to sell.

So guys that are steady top tier producers are not "sell high" players; they're get out before they're too old or cash out for massive overpay, preferably an overpay that fixes roster issue on top of providing other assets.
This makes sense to me

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Re: Sell high, buy low, always

Postby QB Browns » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:19 pm

I've gotta say, this thread has been one of the more thoughtful and intelligently discussed topics I've seen on dynasty forums. There's a lot of dynasty management philosophy in these posts that would be extremely valuable to new owners. Well done everyone.
Team 1

10 team, 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1WR/TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, DEF, .5 ppr

QB: D. Prescott, K. Cousins, A. Richardson, R. Tannehill, T. Lance

RB: A. Kamara, S. Barkley, Bi. Robinson, J. Conner, J. Dobbins, A. Dillon, D. Harris, R. Stephenson, K. Herbert, I. Spiller, Br. Robinson, K. Ingram, T. Spears, D. Foreman

WR: M. Evans, D. Adams, AJ Brown, C. Lamb, J. Waddle, K. Toney, J. Reed

TE: D. Waller, P. Friermuth, D. Kincaid

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Re: Sell high, buy low, always

Postby Flgatorguy87 » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:17 pm

saw061600 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:26 pm I guess the part that was missed, maybe my post wasn't written well enough, was my inferred belief that Hill was not and never would be "#1 dynasty asset or #1 dynasty WR." If you owned Hill and someone in your league believed he was worth first pick startup, it's time to sell.

Essentially, selling high doesn't mean you sell your proven studs, just because you can make a deal. Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level. When trades involving that player are reaching a level of expected future production that is out of line with ADP and rankings, it's time to sell.

So guys that are steady top tier producers are not "sell high" players; they're get out before they're too old or cash out for massive overpay, preferably an overpay that fixes roster issue on top of providing other assets.

Agree with this. You're arguing real value vs. perceived value. You can turn perceived value into real value by cashing out and getting real life production.
SF PPR 30 man roster 5 taxi 2 IR
QB, 3WR, 2RB, 2TE, 2FLEX , Superflex

A. Rodgers, J. Goff, D. Lock, Ta. Hill

O. Beckham, Antonio Brown, M. Evans, A. Robinson, S. Diggs, C. Sutton, T. Boyd, Jakobi Meyers, S. Sims Jr., Darius Slayton

S. Barkley, Da. Cook, Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, R. Penny, Ronald Jones, W. Gallman, Duke Johnson, AJ Dillon, Darrynton Evans, DeeJay Dallas, L. Perine

G. Kittle, M. Andrews, H. Hurst

Taxi: R. Armstead, Joe Reed, L. Bowden Jr., I. Coulter, Scotty Miller

2021 - 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th

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Re: Sell high, buy low, always

Postby ArrylT » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:40 pm

Flgatorguy87 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:17 pm
saw061600 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 2:26 pm I guess the part that was missed, maybe my post wasn't written well enough, was my inferred belief that Hill was not and never would be "#1 dynasty asset or #1 dynasty WR." If you owned Hill and someone in your league believed he was worth first pick startup, it's time to sell.

Essentially, selling high doesn't mean you sell your proven studs, just because you can make a deal. Instead it's about realizing when a player is getting hyped to an unrealistic level. When trades involving that player are reaching a level of expected future production that is out of line with ADP and rankings, it's time to sell.

So guys that are steady top tier producers are not "sell high" players; they're get out before they're too old or cash out for massive overpay, preferably an overpay that fixes roster issue on top of providing other assets.

Agree with this. You're arguing real value vs. perceived value. You can turn perceived value into real value by cashing out and getting real life production.
Absolutely. This is definitely something owners, especially those in a rebuild, should keep in mind. Well said! :thumbup:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Sell high, buy low, always

Postby smallxl » Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:00 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:19 am You're right, but I'm still not trading Saquon Barkley lol.
I'd be trying to trade Barkley. Mahomes, etc. !! LOL
22-man, 12-team, 1 pt-PPR; Start 1-2RB; 3-4 WR; 1-2 TE

TEAM 1
QB: Prescott, Foles
RB: Barkley, P Barber, Duke, Gio Bernard, Gus, C Thompson, Breida, Ekeler
WR: A Cooper, Cooks, Lockett, C. Davis, Crowder, Chark, Stills
TE: OJ Howard

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Buy Low/Sell High

Postby briank » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:15 am

Who are the players you are buying low and selling high?

Guys I'm kicking the tires on:

McCaffrey
Mixon
M. Thomas
Barkley
Sutton

What say you?
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby CGW » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:30 am

I would kick around buying any of those players if they are being sold low.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1st 2025 | 1stx3, 2nd, 3rdx2

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Stroud
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert, Love, Young, Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Flowers, Collins, Downs
TE | Hockenson, Dulcich, Likely, Otton
2024 | 2nd, 3rdx3, 4th

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:37 am

Julio is always criminally undervalued in the trade market, any serious contender with a less than perfect WR group should be inquiring about him if he's owned by a non-contender in their league.

Signed a Julio owner with a rebuild team in a league where no one is even willing to trade a late 1st for him.

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:39 am

bjd5211 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:37 am Julio is always criminally undervalued in the trade market, any serious contender with a less than perfect WR group should be inquiring about him if he's owned by a non-contender in their league.

Signed a Julio owner with a rebuild team in a league where no one is even willing to trade a late 1st for him.
He has been for years too. I bought him cheap 3 years ago. His value was suppressed then. At this rate, he'll likely retire on my roster.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:53 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:39 am
bjd5211 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:37 am Julio is always criminally undervalued in the trade market, any serious contender with a less than perfect WR group should be inquiring about him if he's owned by a non-contender in their league.

Signed a Julio owner with a rebuild team in a league where no one is even willing to trade a late 1st for him.
He has been for years too. I bought him cheap 3 years ago. His value was suppressed then. At this rate, he'll likely retire on my roster.
Well, he currently has a hamstring injury. There's always some nagging issue with him. I think those who have owned him know the frustrations that don't show up in the final stats.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:55 am

Pac_Eddy wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:53 am
Orenthal Shames wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:39 am
bjd5211 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:37 am Julio is always criminally undervalued in the trade market, any serious contender with a less than perfect WR group should be inquiring about him if he's owned by a non-contender in their league.

Signed a Julio owner with a rebuild team in a league where no one is even willing to trade a late 1st for him.
He has been for years too. I bought him cheap 3 years ago. His value was suppressed then. At this rate, he'll likely retire on my roster.
Well, he currently has a hamstring injury. There's always some nagging issue with him. I think those who have owned him know the frustrations that don't show up in the final stats.
All WRs are up and done for different reasons, Julio is a lock to be a top 10 WR at the end of the year every year basically his entire career.

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby StripesOfKC » Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:24 am

Buy low Allen Robinson

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John Paul
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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby John Paul » Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:41 am

Has anyone seen any Sutton trades go down? What was the price?
10 Team PPR Dynasty (2012 Startup) 2018 1st 2019 2nd 2021 2nd

QB: Matt Stafford(Trade '22), Kirk Cousins(Trade '22), Baker Mayfield(Trade '22)
RB: Jonathan Taylor(Trade '21), ETN(trade '22), Breece Hall(1.02 '22), Deon Jackson (WW '23), Michael Carter (trade '23)
WR: Drake London (Trade '23), Jahan Dotson (Trade "23), Allen Robinson (Trade '22), Brandin Cooks (Trade '23), John Metchie III(2.02 "23), Rondale Moore(Trade '21), Kyle Philips(4.05 '22), Curtis Samuel (Trade '23)
TE: Kyle Pitts(Trade '22), Logan Thomas (WW "23)
LB: Logan Wilson (WW '22), Zaire Franklin (WW'23), Matt Judon (WW '23)
DB: M Fitzpatrick (WW '22), I Simmons (WW "23), Jamal Adams (WW "23)
DL: Chase Young(3.08/'20), Aidan Hutchinson (WW "23)

2023: 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 2.04
2024: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
2025: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2

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Re: Buy Low/Sell High

Postby remedy29 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:03 pm

To me, buy low discussions should be around players preceived ADP value, not stud players whose value has been lowered due to injury. So with that said;

RBs;
- Lev Bell, he has the respect and contract to demand touches when he returns. Everyone is down on the Jets offense, they can only go up when Lev Bell returns and the WRs return.
- Carson ADP per Mizelle is RB29, he routinely outperforms that. Seattle offense is scoring lots of points this year.
- David Johnson, ADP RB27, he looks good so far.
- Damian Harris, do you think he gets a legit shot this year when he returns?

WR;
Diontae Johnson, ADP WR40. He looks to be top 15 WR now. He is just getting warmed up with Big Ben.
- Shenault. He sure looks to have been worthy of a late
first rookie pick, not a late 2nd that people valued him as.
- Darrius Slayton, WE46. He most certainly will finish better than that.
- Robby Anderson WR66. Clearly poor ADP ranking on a quality WR.
- Allen Robinson. Chicago will be turning to Foles soon enough, Robinson stats will likely increase.

QB;
- Cam Newton. The guy is going to finish top 5 in QBs and is neat as good as any QB this year.


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