Nick Chubb Thread: Chubb = Stud

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Ice
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Re: Chubb value

Postby Ice » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:48 pm

Chubb is very good. The reality is he my be just slightly more valuable than Hunt in Fantasy. This means Chubb's fantasy value is right around the 10-13th best RB fantasy wise.

I get if he was on a different team a different case could be made but the reality is the following 9 RB's should go ahead of him easily

CMC
Barkley
Zeke
Henry
CEH
Jacobs
Kamara
Cook
Sanders

Mixon
Chubb is in the tier with Mixon, Drake, Jones, Eckler, & Hunt.

I have said more than once it would not surprise me at all if Hunt outscores him this season in ppr leagues.
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Re: Chubb value

Postby remedy29 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:52 pm

mild wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:35 pm
remedy29 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:21 pm Steelers are good and their defense is legit, but they won't steamroll Cleveland like Baltimore did. In fact, I'd put a small bet that Cleveland wins one of those games.
You will most assuredly lose that bet. That Steelers defense might be even scarier than the Ravens and just held Saquon Barkley to negative rushing yardage. Whether you think the Giants are the same, worse, or better from an O-line/RB/QB perspective, they are at the least roughly equivalent. Expect tough sledding.

I want to believe that all is well in Chubb land, but I'm smarter than that. I will predict that we will be back to DEFCON Chubb pretty soon in this thread, and perhaps as soon as post-Week 3. This WFT front 7 is for real (and if you don't believe me, you might want to go watch the condensed game).

I'm not arguing that them running their O through their RB's isn't a good thing. I'm saying the Browns themselves are not a good thing.
I'm a Jets fan and live in NY metro area and follow the Giants as much as anyone. Barkley has shown great ability, but he has also shown great dancing ability behind an online, lack of hitting the hole and complete lack of pass protection. Barkley is a great talent, but he has plenty of question marks before he can be considered a great player.

Volume is king for RBs, and all I'm saying is Chubb's volume will be there. I wouldn't be against trading him, but not at a discount, bc he is an elite player.

And I'm a betting man ..but I'll want Cleveland and the points against Pitt.

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Re: Chubb value

Postby blemly » Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:45 pm

remedy29 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:04 pm
blemly wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:43 pm
remedy29 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:16 pm So is it situation > talent, 33 games into a players career?

Maybe talent > situation only applies to pre-draft players.
I agree that if we are grading pure running talent, Chubb is one of the best in the league. Unfortunately for Chubb and fantasy owners, his value is not only tied to his rushing ability. Chubb was 24th among RBs in receptions last year and 21st in targets. This has, and always will, limit his upside in PPR leagues.

I get what you are saying about talent vs situation, but it is not so black and white. Truth is, you can’t paint an accurate projection without a combination of both. And Hunt is in CLE for some time now. He had more receptions than Chubb in half a season last year. That caps Chubb’s upside, and if you aren’t at least considering that when looking at the value of a player, you’re missing part of the equation.
I'm not going to question your narrative, but I am going to question your decisions.

In several of your leagues you have Guice, in another you have Dobbins. Yet another had Swift. I don't know where you drafted any of these guys, but based on your philosophy, you'd draft Swift over Dobbins and Guice shouldn't have been your preferred 1.02.

Both Guice and Dobbins project to be RBs with limited receptions. Dobbins, not only has limited receptions upside, he is in a forever RBBC role. Even if Baltimore doesn't add another talented RB, Dobbins will always be second fiddle to Lamar Jackson. And if you projected Dobbins to be good at catching passes, Lamar Jackson will always be the better "check down* option and just run the ball himself.

So. Are you hoping for Dobbins to have a breakout year in year 2, or maybe year 1, and then sell him for some late 1st round draft picks?
Hahahaha, interesting tactic to completely side-step my actual point and instead attempt to somehow point out a contradiction in it based on my rosters (without apparently taking into consideration the myriad of variables that come into play when obtaining players). Especially Guice. This is his third year in the league and I could have acquired him in so many different ways before now. But I’ll play along. I got Dobbins at the 1.06 in one of those leagues, which was incredible value. The other two came in cheap startups this past offseason.
Team 1: 12-team SF 0.5 PPR:
QB: Dak, Russ, Stafford, Geno, Dalton
RB: Harris, Gibson, Chubb, Cohen
WR: DK, Ridley, Kirk, Chark, Woods, C Samuel, Shepard, Reagor
TE: Fant, Knox
Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TEP:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Geno, Foles
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen, Pollard
WR: DJM, Cooper, Sutton, Deebo, R. Moore, ARSB, Eskridge, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Arnold
Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Winston, Cam
RB: Harris, Ekeler, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, Woods, Chark, Lockett
TE: Gesicki, OJH, Firkser
Team 4: 12-team SF TEP Devy
QB: Wilson, Geno, Ryan, Cousins
RB: Zeke, Chubb, Sanders, Pollard, Hines, Cohen, Henderson
WR: Cooper, Godwin, Sutton, JuJu, Samuel, Fuller, Shepard, Campbell
TE: Fant, Gesicki, Ertz, Freiermuth
Devy: Boutte, Young, Slovis, Harris
Team 5: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak, Lance, Jones, Cam
RB: Swift, Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Golladay, Chase, Pittman, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Wallace
TE: Herndon, Gesicki, Freiermuth

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Re: Chubb value

Postby hoos89 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:04 am

chubb averaged 5.6 YPC on 22 runs. Thats just stupid. Baker still wasnt great at all, he was good but chubbs performance was much better.
5.6 for one game is very good but not really that remarkable, especially against a defense that can't tackle.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Chubb value

Postby hoos89 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:08 am

Ice wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:48 pm Chubb is very good. The reality is he my be just slightly more valuable than Hunt in Fantasy. This means Chubb's fantasy value is right around the 10-13th best RB fantasy wise.

I get if he was on a different team a different case could be made but the reality is the following 9 RB's should go ahead of him easily

CMC
Barkley
Zeke
Henry
CEH
Jacobs
Kamara
Cook
Sanders

Mixon
Chubb is in the tier with Mixon, Drake, Jones, Eckler, & Hunt.

I have said more than once it would not surprise me at all if Hunt outscores him this season in ppr leagues.
You forgot Taylor
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

Bronco Billy
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Re: Chubb value

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:15 am

Mjvb5 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:15 pm chubb averaged 5.6 YPC on 22 runs. Thats just stupid. Baker still wasnt great at all, he was good but chubbs performance was much better.
So what does that say about Hunt’s 6.78 ypa on the season so far? Which RB of the two should be getting the lion’s share of the work?

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Re: Chubb value

Postby The MAC Machine » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:20 am

hoos89 wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:08 am
Ice wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:48 pm Chubb is very good. The reality is he my be just slightly more valuable than Hunt in Fantasy. This means Chubb's fantasy value is right around the 10-13th best RB fantasy wise.

I get if he was on a different team a different case could be made but the reality is the following 9 RB's should go ahead of him easily

CMC
Barkley
Zeke
Henry
CEH
Jacobs
Kamara
Cook
Sanders

Mixon
Chubb is in the tier with Mixon, Drake, Jones, Eckler, & Hunt.

I have said more than once it would not surprise me at all if Hunt outscores him this season in ppr leagues.
You forgot Taylor
I would not put Taylor above Chubb. I keep echoing this....people severely undervalue consistency at RB in the light of “upside”. Why does a RB who is going to get you 1100+ Rush yards and 8-10 TDs need upside?
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⛳️Jaguars will finish 11-6 and make the playoffs
⛳️If Sam Darnold finishes outside of the top 13 QB in 2021 then StripesOfKC & Sriracha get to decide what my new handle and icon will be. :thumbup:

12 TEAM SUPERFLEX PPR
START: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 SUPERFLEX
ROSTER STARTERS
QB: S. Darnold (CAR)
RB: J. Jacobs (LV), L. Fournette (TB)
WR: Cooper (DAL), Ridley (ATL), M. Williams (LAC)
TE: R. Seals-Jones (WAS), M. Alie-Cox (IND)
FLEX: Sutton (DEN), J. Smith-Schuster (PIT), D. Harris (NE)
SUPERFLEX: M. Jones (NE)


BENCH:
QB: Rudolph (PIT), Book (NO), Minshew (PHL), Stidham (NE)
RB: Cord. Patterson (ATL), A. Collins (SEA), D. Dallas (SEA), K. Vaughn (TB), JJ Taylor (NE), S. Perine (CIN)
WR: M. Jones (JAX), Zaccheus (ATL), G. Olszewski (NE)
TE: B. Jarwin (DAL), D. Asiasi (NE)
IR: Tre' Q. Smith (NO), Tyrod Taylor (HOU), Chark Jr (JAX), R. Penny (SEA)

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Re: Chubb value

Postby The MAC Machine » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:28 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:15 am
Mjvb5 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:15 pm chubb averaged 5.6 YPC on 22 runs. Thats just stupid. Baker still wasnt great at all, he was good but chubbs performance was much better.
So what does that say about Hunt’s 6.78 ypa on the season so far? Which RB of the two should be getting the lion’s share of the work?

It is clear that Chubb is the starter, Hunt is the finisher....there is room for both of their touches in Cleveland IMO. Chubb will get the lion share of carries, and Hunt will nearly make up the difference in targets/receptions. They will both get 200+ touches. Hunt will be more explosive since his touches will mix in more catches.

I’m thinking Chubb 250 carries - 25+ catches
Hunt 150 carries - 50+ catches
The Handle Formerly Known as "The Godwin Complex"
⛳️Jaguars will finish 11-6 and make the playoffs
⛳️If Sam Darnold finishes outside of the top 13 QB in 2021 then StripesOfKC & Sriracha get to decide what my new handle and icon will be. :thumbup:

12 TEAM SUPERFLEX PPR
START: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 SUPERFLEX
ROSTER STARTERS
QB: S. Darnold (CAR)
RB: J. Jacobs (LV), L. Fournette (TB)
WR: Cooper (DAL), Ridley (ATL), M. Williams (LAC)
TE: R. Seals-Jones (WAS), M. Alie-Cox (IND)
FLEX: Sutton (DEN), J. Smith-Schuster (PIT), D. Harris (NE)
SUPERFLEX: M. Jones (NE)


BENCH:
QB: Rudolph (PIT), Book (NO), Minshew (PHL), Stidham (NE)
RB: Cord. Patterson (ATL), A. Collins (SEA), D. Dallas (SEA), K. Vaughn (TB), JJ Taylor (NE), S. Perine (CIN)
WR: M. Jones (JAX), Zaccheus (ATL), G. Olszewski (NE)
TE: B. Jarwin (DAL), D. Asiasi (NE)
IR: Tre' Q. Smith (NO), Tyrod Taylor (HOU), Chark Jr (JAX), R. Penny (SEA)

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Re: Chubb value

Postby Bronco Billy » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:37 am

The Godwin Complex wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:28 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:15 am
Mjvb5 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:15 pm chubb averaged 5.6 YPC on 22 runs. Thats just stupid. Baker still wasnt great at all, he was good but chubbs performance was much better.
So what does that say about Hunt’s 6.78 ypa on the season so far? Which RB of the two should be getting the lion’s share of the work?

It is clear that Chubb is the starter, Hunt is the finisher....there is room for both of their touches in Cleveland IMO. Chubb will get the lion share of carries, and Hunt will nearly make up the difference in targets/receptions. They will both get 200+ touches. Hunt will be more explosive since his touches will mix in more catches.

I’m thinking Chubb 250 carries - 30ish catches
Hunt 150 carries - 50+ catches
Still early, but right now their 16 game pace is:

Chubb 250 carries 20 catches
Hunt 180 carries 50 catches

That seems reasonable. Chubb still gets more touches
but Hunt gets his share. Certainly benefits the team as they are using the run to set up the pass, and both backs have a better chance of staying healthy and fresh. Both guys can go 1200+ total yds and double digit TDs.

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Re: Chubb value

Postby dynastyninja » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:39 am

I've made my stance on Chubb known. If Hunt weren't stealing touches he'd be my RB3 or 4 behind Saquon/CMC and maybe Zeke.

Hunt's there, though, so I'd put him behind Saquon/CMC/Zeke/Jacobs/CEH with Kamara and Cook, so RB6-8.

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Re: Chubb value

Postby Mjvb5 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:50 am

dynastyninja wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:39 am I've made my stance on Chubb known. If Hunt weren't stealing touches he'd be my RB3 or 4 behind Saquon/CMC and maybe Zeke.

Hunt's there, though, so I'd put him behind Saquon/CMC/Zeke/Jacobs/CEH with Kamara and Cook, so RB6-8.
This I really agree with this.

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Re: Chubb value

Postby Ice » Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:40 am

dynastyninja wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:39 am I've made my stance on Chubb known. If Hunt weren't stealing touches he'd be my RB3 or 4 behind Saquon/CMC and maybe Zeke.

Hunt's there, though, so I'd put him behind Saquon/CMC/Zeke/Jacobs/CEH with Kamara and Cook, so RB6-8.
You could be right given his obvious talent. My concern is he was 12th in points per game average in PPr leagues last season. He won't be facing Cincy every week.

I traded him away in a big package that netted me the 1.1 which was CEH and no regrets. I would not have moved him if Hunt wasn't around so IMO Hunt really impacts his fantasy value.
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Re: Chubb value

Postby Vcize » Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:03 am

Yeah unless Chubb starts catching a LOT more passes or scoring a LOT more TDs I just don't see where the points are going to come from to put him in the RB6-8 range. Hunt only further caps both of those things happening.

He finished 2nd in the NFL in rushing last year and was still only RB12 in PPG. And that was with half a season without Hunt. There's not much room to go up in rushing yards, and the TDs/receptions both seem capped. So where do all of those extra points come from?

Seems like a pretty classic example of better NFL player than fantasy player once we consider the situation. Thursday night was great but they only get to play Cincy one more time so I foresee a lot of 14-68, 1-7, 0 TD type games on the radar.
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QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

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Re: Chubb value

Postby Kmani6 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:53 pm

Vcize wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:03 am Yeah unless Chubb starts catching a LOT more passes or scoring a LOT more TDs I just don't see where the points are going to come from to put him in the RB6-8 range. Hunt only further caps both of those things happening.

He finished 2nd in the NFL in rushing last year and was still only RB12 in PPG. And that was with half a season without Hunt. There's not much room to go up in rushing yards, and the TDs/receptions both seem capped. So where do all of those extra points come from?

Seems like a pretty classic example of better NFL player than fantasy player once we consider the situation. Thursday night was great but they only get to play Cincy one more time so I foresee a lot of 14-68, 1-7, 0 TD type games on the radar.
You're right in that Chubb might not actually finish in the RB 6-8 range, but that doesn't mean he's not in that range for dynasty rankings. TBH, he falls right in the 8th spot in my own personal rankings, and there is really no other consensus guy to take that spot, although others may favor JT/Mixon/or Sanders. Personally, I'd have to see Mixon/Sanders take the next step, and JT actually perform this year before ranking them higher than Chubb, who is legitimately the best pure runner in the entire league.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce

2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8

Dynasty Team 2:

10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex

QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle

2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd

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Re: Chubb value

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:27 pm

Vcize wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:03 am Yeah unless Chubb starts catching a LOT more passes or scoring a LOT more TDs I just don't see where the points are going to come from to put him in the RB6-8 range. Hunt only further caps both of those things happening.

I'm wondering where the screens are. Dalvin had quite a few on first or 2nd down last year, and they were well designed, and often created chunk plays. If he can get 2-3 catches a game, and one of those, he'll be much better off. He's a few targets a game away. It's a new scheme for everybody, but I haven't seen those plays yet, through 2 games, and am hoping they get introduced....and soon.
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