Jacksonville backfield, who is the guy?

[Cameron Giles]

No, that’s what YOU were looking at. I never ONCE said anything about Robinson’s long term value. It turned into comparing long term values when you, among others, introduced the long term benefits Of trading for draft picks while simultaneously ignoring the short term benefits of finding and holding onto sleepers. So let’s make that clear - I never said Robinson would have long term value. I’ve only ever said I don’t know what his value is and I’d like to find out, regardless of whether that is short or long term, and that a 2nd round pick isn’t worth my curiosity. Obviously, you believe different...but that’s because you think you have everything figured out

This is what you originally said:

I think if you have him he is worth holding rather than flipping for another rookie pick out of fear for not getting anything. His presence helped oust a pretty good RB, and we all know Armstead and Ozigbo weren’t the reason. James Robinson doesn’t have the speed or raw ability someone like JT has, but if you watch his tape he has vision and patience like JT has. I’d rather risk getting nothing for cheap then selling a gem for pennies.

How is a gem not a player who at least has a good season and/or carries long-term value?

Either way, the chances of both are absurdly low.

Look, this is stupid. If we draft 300 players, and someone I pick up off the waiver wire has an opportunity to outperform any of the drafted players even if its for 1 year.....it’s a gem. Why is that hard for you to wrap your head around?

And I literally just posted a list of the "gems" of the last 30 years and put the value into context. I gave you 18 undrafted rookie RBs who put up 500 yards.

I'm not the one who's struggling to grasp this. I've made clear points supported by historical and current data.

[captain howdy]

I'm a contender, and I'd take a 2nd every time over him. Robinson shouldn't touch your starting lineup if you are a contender, and even with injuries, his production could be easily replaced. You could probably trade that 2nd you got for him to find production similar or better, but only if you needed to move it, due to injuries. I'd rather keep the 2nd in my pocket than roster a guy like him, with such limited upside.

Right, that's cool, people disagree on value often. That's how trades occur

Let's say you and team b are the top teams in the league. You would gladly trade away jrob for what is likely to be 2.10 to 2.12, to a main competitor?

Most likely, yes. I don't think Robinson would be the difference in a championship, and I think the 2nd has a better shot at maintaining value. If the situation were different, perhaps not, but I don't believe Jacksonville will create a running game that is FF start worthy.

You dont think he's a difference maker, im not sure about about that. I guess that's the rub here. I'm also best ball in the league I own him in


He cost me nothing and is yet another arrow in my championship quiver. That is my only concern bc I'm going for a 3 peat and another league specific accolade that hasn't been won in the 15 year history of the league.

I dont think it's a simple calculus to flip him as fast as one can for an unranked 2nd.

Potentially he shows well right? His running style fits well to the jags imo. Yes the jags suck, but hes a good fit

[Jigga94]

Thanks for the data Cam... Ultimately, your bolding of "Jacksonville" is the most crucial though. I could see arguing for 20 pages about a random waiver back if he were on a semi decent team.

[The MAC Machine]

Thanks for the data Cam... Ultimately, your bolding of "Jacksonville" is the most crucial though. I could see arguing for 20 pages about a random waiver back if he were on a semi decent team.

Random, to your knowledge


Anyways, I think the Jaguars are in rebuild mode and if they were smart would really want to see what they have in their roster now that will carry over into the future. There is tons of opportunity and motivation in that for players - especially a rookie. Let’s just wait and see. The SF offense didn’t look like a decent team on paper until they started mowing people down...

[Pullo Vision]

I appreciate the discussion about general football strategy of what to do with free agent adds- the chance UDFAs maintain production based on history, the sell point in dynasty trade. However, it seems like it's all been hypothetical, without any real scouting of James Robinson as a football player.

For the reason, I appreciate thebeast's post about Robinson's prospects.

All the NFL teams scouted him and didn't draft him through 7 rounds. I don't understand. "Real scouting" was done there. What we do isn't real scouting, in comparison to that, nor is when someone writes an article projecting a guy from round 3-7 or UDFA. I really don't understand what you mean. It's not like people haven't looked into the guy at all, when making the comments about selling him for a 2nd, etc. The Jags dumped Fournette late, and lost a RB to COVID. Theoretically, he beat out Ozigbo, and that's it. RB depth charts are sketchy, on top of that. We don't know how the touches will fall. McKissic is the RB1 on Washington, Dobbins the RB4 on Baltimore. It's really not guaranteed Robinson gets a heavy workload at all. I mean, the thread is about who is "the guy" in the Jags backfield, and I'd argue nobody is really. It's going to be a full blown RBBC, in my opinion.

Talent. Situation. Opportunity. People have mentioned these as the drivers of short term and long term value. There's been comments about the coaching staff and offensive line, weapons and defense (situation). There's been discussion about Robinson being the lead back or even bell cow (opportunity). While thebeast and I have posted articles about Robinson's talents, there's hardly been any discussion here about Robinson's talents. Most people have been focusing on Robinson going undrafted, and using that as a basis to dismiss Robinson as a talent.

In the talent/situation/opportunity triad, talent is the most important but it's been the least-discussed here. There are people who've provided solid RB analysis in this forum. No, we here don't have the time and not necessarily the skill to do what NFL scouts do. But, I'd hope for an open-eyed evaluation of Robinson as a talent in this thread, rather than a dismissive wave because he's a UDFA.

[captain howdy]

James robinson also has talent. Again, im not saying he's some elite prospect, but im sure you all have watched his films from ISU? He's got good vision. Well see if it translates, but he showed good vision thus far in actual football games(granted at FCS level, but he did really well.. made All FCS and was a critical component of a competitive FCS team) He must have shown it in practice to even make a 53 man roster, much less be promoted as he has. Im not saying robinson made fournette expendable, or that he alone kept freeman a FA...but do people really think he had nothing to do with the jags ultimate decisions on those items?

Athletically, his speed compares favorably to CEH, and his 3 cone and short shuttle best JTaylor...AND he does so being a stronger player with better BMI than either of them. He looks and acts the part of a professional rb.

Hes arguably a prototype size and metrics guy. Granted lacking top end speed...again, so does CEH. Imo, vision is far far more important to a rb than even a few tenths of a second in forty time up or down.. thats why simple speed freaks rarely work out.


Will Robinson continue showing good vision at the pro level? Well see. He has to prove that like every rookie rb before him. He has no more or less to prove than any rookie rb this week.

[thebeast]

Hmmm, since there are so many statisticians in this thread has anyone run the numbers on what percentage of UDFA have been named the starting RB for their team? In their rookie year? For game 1? And then what number of those RBs have bucked the trend of UDFA RBs? This is no longer a 4% shot or whatever.

You're asking for something that's oddly specific. Unfortunately, I don't have access to anything that can produce results for it.

The closest I can do is UDFA RBs who started at least 1 game in their rookie season and there are 111 players in the last 30 years. It produces a lot of players who didn't do much of anything. So the hit rate is still very, very low.

If I trim that to UDFA RBs who got at least 100 carries in their rookie season, you get 18 results

Dominic Rhodes*
LeGarrette Blount*
Phillip Lindsay*
Ryan Grant
Fred Lane
Robert Kelley
Brandon Oliver
Mike Bell
Jason Brookins
Isaiah Crowell
Thomas Rawls
Samkon Gado
Selvin Young
Gus Edwards
Chris Ivory
Kenton Keith
Josh Adams
Kenny Watson

* - Hit 1000 yards

Three things:

1. Arian Foster and Priest Holmes are the poster childs of UDFA RBs and they're not listed because they only started a game or didn't start at all as rookies.

2. Each RB listed got 100 attempts and had 500 or more yards in their rookie season. None of them went on to be long-term starters or "gems." The closest is Ryan Grant who had two 1000 yard seasons in three years, then faded. Lindsay obviously is recent, but was just replaced by Melvin Gordon. Blount was useful, had another 1000 yard season later, but was mostly a journeyman.

3. Basically nothing about the probability changed. UDFAs still have an overwhelmingly poor hit rate. Once in a blue moon you'll get Foster, Holmes, or Ekeler, but you have to maneuver through a ton RBs to get there.

Most likely outcomes with Robinson:

1. He has an ok-ish rookie season and becomes irrelevant afterwards when the team wants to upgrade their talent.
2. He does nothing, loses his job to someone else, and becomes irrelevant afterwards.
3. He does nothing in a committee and becomes irrelevant afterwards.

I'd rather have the 2nd round pick. More power to you if he turns in a good career, but I'd rather play the odds consistently.

Lindsay wasn’t replaced by Gordon. Gordon replaced Booker.

I’m going to plant my flag. Robinson will have a top 15 RB season this year barring injury. Then I’m going to sell him.

[FantasyFreak]

I appreciate the discussion about general football strategy of what to do with free agent adds- the chance UDFAs maintain production based on history, the sell point in dynasty trade. However, it seems like it's all been hypothetical, without any real scouting of James Robinson as a football player.

For the reason, I appreciate thebeast's post about Robinson's prospects.

All the NFL teams scouted him and didn't draft him through 7 rounds. I don't understand. "Real scouting" was done there. What we do isn't real scouting, in comparison to that, nor is when someone writes an article projecting a guy from round 3-7 or UDFA. I really don't understand what you mean. It's not like people haven't looked into the guy at all, when making the comments about selling him for a 2nd, etc. The Jags dumped Fournette late, and lost a RB to COVID. Theoretically, he beat out Ozigbo, and that's it. RB depth charts are sketchy, on top of that. We don't know how the touches will fall. McKissic is the RB1 on Washington, Dobbins the RB4 on Baltimore. It's really not guaranteed Robinson gets a heavy workload at all. I mean, the thread is about who is "the guy" in the Jags backfield, and I'd argue nobody is really. It's going to be a full blown RBBC, in my opinion.

Talent. Situation. Opportunity. People have mentioned these as the drivers of short term and long term value. There's been comments about the coaching staff and offensive line, weapons and defense (situation). There's been discussion about Robinson being the lead back or even bell cow (opportunity). While thebeast and I have posted articles about Robinson's talents, there's hardly been any discussion here about Robinson's talents. Most people have been focusing on Robinson going undrafted, and using that as a basis to dismiss Robinson as a talent.

In the talent/situation/opportunity triad, talent is the most important but it's been the least-discussed here. There are people who've provided solid RB analysis in this forum. No, we here don't have the time and not necessarily the skill to do what NFL scouts do. But, I'd hope for an open-eyed evaluation of Robinson as a talent in this thread, rather than a dismissive wave because he's a UDFA.

I really don't know what you're driving at with the "talent" thing. Are we talking about our amateur scouting of his games vs random FCS opponents? He hasn't played an NFL game yet, and the professional talent evaluators deemed him an inferior talent. He could prove them wrong, but until that point, people have merely been arguing that the percentage of players that hit based on how his talent was judged by professionals is very low. He walked into the starting job basically by default, so it's not like a Carson situation where he beat out a first round pick. He had other UDFA competition, who got hurt. Armstead hasn't been healthy basically all off season, and Thompson is a scat back, so I really can't judge "talent" based on that set of circumstances, with no pre season games, either.

My entire argument was I would move him for a 2nd round rookie pick, due to these factors, and the odds are in the favour of that 2nd being the high water mark on his value. I'd obviously hold him rather than drop him. I'm not saying he can't be somewhat productive, I just don't see much of a ceiling, unlike some people spouting off about a top 15 season.

[The MAC Machine]

[I just don't see much of a ceiling, unlike some people spouting off about a top 15 season.

Top 15 that is bold. I think it’s safer to say that he will be a top 100-120 player this year for sure. Depending on your starting requirements and roster size that could be a pretty nice edge - especially during bye weeks or when injuries strike.

[FantasyFreak]

[I just don't see much of a ceiling, unlike some people spouting off about a top 15 season.

Top 15 that is bold. I think it’s safer to say that he will be a top 150 player for sure. Depending on your starting requirements and roster size that could be a pretty nice edge.

A top 15 RB season (in scoring) vs other RB's. It's easy to make ridiculous takes that don't come true, because there isn't accountability for them. I mean, that's half of FF twitter. Meaningless chest beating.

[Yarnith]

One of my penny stocks hit this week, Jumped up 1000% so I went ahead and sold it. I figure someone else can take the risk of the bottom falling out and I will be happy with the profit I just made.

[The MAC Machine]

One of my penny stocks hit this week, Jumped up 1000% so I went ahead and sold it. I figure someone else can take the risk of the bottom falling out and I will be happy with the profit I just made.

I’m glad you waited until it jumped first! IN RETROSPECT, it would have sucked if you sold at 100% before it jumped to 1000% good job buddy. Congrats. I’m happy for you Wouldn’t it have been more awesome though if you hadn’t even invested those pennies and still netted that profit!?!?

Food for thought

[Yarnith]

One of my penny stocks hit this week, Jumped up 1000% so I went ahead and sold it. I figure someone else can take the risk of the bottom falling out and I will be happy with the profit I just made.

I’m glad you waited until it jumped first! IN RETROSPECT, it would have sucked if you sold at 100% before it jumped to 1000% good job buddy. Congrats. I’m happy for you Wouldn’t it have been more awesome though if you hadn’t even invested those pennies and still netted that profit!?!?

Food for thought

coolstory

[millworkguy]

We allow conditional trades, I've sold james betting he tops 125 points this season

[Go Bucks]

Can the mods lock this thread ? There is virtually zero discussion about Robinson. Just nonstop fluff from a few guys who want to have the last word.