Antonio Gibson Rocket Ship - Round 2

[Cameron Giles]

Think about it by reversing it - anybody else find you cannot even trade three future 2nds for a current year say mid 1st. These people who are against Gibson probably don't own him anywhere, and those who do own and like him feel that his selection in the mid 2nd range was a huge value. His value has objectively grown since pre draft due to aforementioned (66th draft selection, Guice departure, 1st team reps) so these people who own him tend to view him now in the mid-later 1st. The only reason you would take a future 1st for Gibson is because you're gambling that the pick is high, higher than a mid-late 1st or wherever you value him now. You still miss out on him as a prospect and his full year of development. Gibson owners should hold if they believe and buyers will not be able to get him for anything less than a 2021 1st that is projected higher.

I just don't know what Gibson has done to be worth a future first. I agree his value has improved, but it's not like he's this fantastic prospect either. He has 33 career carries in college.

Feels like the hope is that he's another Kamara type of "how was he underused in college and now he's this good as an NFL rookie?"

[Sriracha]

Think about it by reversing it - anybody else find you cannot even trade three future 2nds for a current year say mid 1st. These people who are against Gibson probably don't own him anywhere, and those who do own and like him feel that his selection in the mid 2nd range was a huge value. His value has objectively grown since pre draft due to aforementioned (66th draft selection, Guice departure, 1st team reps) so these people who own him tend to view him now in the mid-later 1st. The only reason you would take a future 1st for Gibson is because you're gambling that the pick is high, higher than a mid-late 1st or wherever you value him now. You still miss out on him as a prospect and his full year of development. Gibson owners should hold if they believe and buyers will not be able to get him for anything less than a 2021 1st that is projected higher.

I just don't know what Gibson has done to be worth a future first. I agree his value has improved, but it's not like he's this fantastic prospect either. He has 33 career carries in college.

People are drunk off his athletic upside. RBs that have a season with more than 25 receptions, are 225+ lbs, and run a 4.40 forty or lower: Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson.

If he puts it together he’s a special, special athlete. But his floor is 0 given his production in college.

[FantasyFreak]

Think about it by reversing it - anybody else find you cannot even trade three future 2nds for a current year say mid 1st. These people who are against Gibson probably don't own him anywhere, and those who do own and like him feel that his selection in the mid 2nd range was a huge value. His value has objectively grown since pre draft due to aforementioned (66th draft selection, Guice departure, 1st team reps) so these people who own him tend to view him now in the mid-later 1st. The only reason you would take a future 1st for Gibson is because you're gambling that the pick is high, higher than a mid-late 1st or wherever you value him now. You still miss out on him as a prospect and his full year of development. Gibson owners should hold if they believe and buyers will not be able to get him for anything less than a 2021 1st that is projected higher.

I just don't know what Gibson has done to be worth a future first. I agree his value has improved, but it's not like he's this fantastic prospect either. He has 33 career carries in college.

People are drunk off his athletic upside. RBs that have a season with more than 25 receptions, are 225+ lbs, and run a 4.40 forty or lower: Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson.

If he puts it together he’s a special, special athlete. But his floor is 0 given his production in college.

Sorry to go over this again, but he gained those reception primarily playing receiver. In college, he was listed as a receiver. Changing his designation after the fact, shouldn't all of a sudden lump him into that category. What were the carries of those RB's who played RB in college in those seasons? I'd guess a lot more than 33.

[Sriracha]

^

Yes, thats why his floor is so low

[Jetsfan06]

If he can learn to pass protect, which he should be able to given his frame, I don’t see why his floor isn’t a pass catching back. Plus you guys act like he was a bad player in college. When he touched the ball he was electric, he had skills to go with his athleticism. He just didn’t have a defined role, but that’s something nfl coaches can groom players for. Personally I care more for what a player does with his touches in college vs the amount of them he gets.

[Sriracha]

If he can learn to pass protect, which he should be able to given his frame, I don’t see why his floor isn’t a pass catching back. Plus you guys act like he was a bad player in college. When he touched the ball he was electric, he had skills to go with his athleticism. He just didn’t have a defined role, but that’s something nfl coaches can groom players for. Personally I care more for what a player does with his touches in college vs the amount of them he gets.

You don't think it's noteworthy that he's never commanded a real workload dating back to JUCO? Are all of his coaches just idiots?

[Ice]

If he can learn to pass protect, which he should be able to given his frame, I don’t see why his floor isn’t a pass catching back. Plus you guys act like he was a bad player in college. When he touched the ball he was electric, he had skills to go with his athleticism. He just didn’t have a defined role, but that’s something nfl coaches can groom players for. Personally I care more for what a player does with his touches in college vs the amount of them he gets.

You don't think it's noteworthy that he's never commanded a real workload dating back to JUCO? Are all of his coaches just idiots?

Your perception is certainly your reality.

Gibson's last year vs Kamara's last year.

Rushing and receiving stats:
1104 Yards 12 TD's in 2019. (12 games)
988 Yards 13 TD's in 2016. (11 games)

[Sriracha]

If he can learn to pass protect, which he should be able to given his frame, I don’t see why his floor isn’t a pass catching back. Plus you guys act like he was a bad player in college. When he touched the ball he was electric, he had skills to go with his athleticism. He just didn’t have a defined role, but that’s something nfl coaches can groom players for. Personally I care more for what a player does with his touches in college vs the amount of them he gets.

You don't think it's noteworthy that he's never commanded a real workload dating back to JUCO? Are all of his coaches just idiots?

Your perception is certainly your reality.

Gibson's last year vs Kamara's last year.

Rushing and receiving stats:
1104 Yards 12 TD's in 2019. (12 games)
988 Yards 13 TD's in 2016. (11 games)

1) Alvin Kamara is the exception of exceptions not a template to build your analysis around
2) He was drafted by NO (a prolific offense, with a well regarded offensive mind as HC and Drew Brees as his QB), not WSH (a bottom of the barrel franchise with Dwayne Haskins as his QB)
3) Alvin Kamara's sophomore season at TEN: 698 rushing yards, 291 receiving yards || Antonio Gibson's junior year: 99 yards receiving. In his 2 years in JUCO? 50 receptions 871 yards 249 rushing yards, total. In Kamara's lone season in JUCO? 1,253 rushing yards in 9 games.

I agree his upside is immense, but I don't like his chances of getting there. This is similar to the way I thought of Hakeem Butler when some people were taking him with the 1.01 last year.

[jenkins.math]

If he can learn to pass protect, which he should be able to given his frame, I don’t see why his floor isn’t a pass catching back. Plus you guys act like he was a bad player in college. When he touched the ball he was electric, he had skills to go with his athleticism. He just didn’t have a defined role, but that’s something nfl coaches can groom players for. Personally I care more for what a player does with his touches in college vs the amount of them he gets.

You don't think it's noteworthy that he's never commanded a real workload dating back to JUCO? Are all of his coaches just idiots?

Your perception is certainly your reality.

Gibson's last year vs Kamara's last year.

Rushing and receiving stats:
1104 Yards 12 TD's in 2019. (12 games)
988 Yards 13 TD's in 2016. (11 games)

One played in the SEC and the other torched Navy, Cincy, and SMU for about 60% of his stats.

Kamara was an elite HS RB recruit, signed with Bama, got in trouble, ends up at Tennessee after JUCO, splits time with Jalen Hurd, and was coached by a man that is currently an intern for Alabama (seriously an intern). Hindsight now gives plenty of reasons as to why Kamara was underused. I know Kamara is the new trump card for lack of collegw usage and finding NFL success, but that doesn't mean its a good comparison. Gibson might be awesome, but I can't remember any player come even close to his resume getting this kind of hype, let alone being a productive NFL player. But hey, everyone has their own reality i guess.

[Ice]

You don't think it's noteworthy that he's never commanded a real workload dating back to JUCO? Are all of his coaches just idiots?

Your perception is certainly your reality.

Gibson's last year vs Kamara's last year.

Rushing and receiving stats:
1104 Yards 12 TD's in 2019. (12 games)
988 Yards 13 TD's in 2016. (11 games)

1) Alvin Kamara is the exception of exceptions not a template to build your analysis around
2) He was drafted by NO (a prolific offense, with a well regarded offensive mind as HC and Drew Brees as his QB), not WSH (a bottom of the barrel franchise with Dwayne Haskins as his QB)
3) Alvin Kamara's sophomore season at TEN: 698 rushing yards, 291 receiving yards || Antonio Gibson's junior year: 99 yards receiving. In his 2 years in JUCO? 50 receptions 871 yards 249 rushing yards, total. In Kamara's lone season in JUCO? 1,253 rushing yards in 9 games.

Yep I just gave the facts.

Excuses Excuses.

The New Washington Coach compared Gibson to the fantasy god that is CMC that he happened to coach.


You have to do better!

[Mjvb5]

Your perception is certainly your reality.

Gibson's last year vs Kamara's last year.

Rushing and receiving stats:
1104 Yards 12 TD's in 2019. (12 games)
988 Yards 13 TD's in 2016. (11 games)

1) Alvin Kamara is the exception of exceptions not a template to build your analysis around
2) He was drafted by NO (a prolific offense, with a well regarded offensive mind as HC and Drew Brees as his QB), not WSH (a bottom of the barrel franchise with Dwayne Haskins as his QB)
3) Alvin Kamara's sophomore season at TEN: 698 rushing yards, 291 receiving yards || Antonio Gibson's junior year: 99 yards receiving. In his 2 years in JUCO? 50 receptions 871 yards 249 rushing yards, total. In Kamara's lone season in JUCO? 1,253 rushing yards in 9 games.

Yep I just gave the facts.

Excuses Excuses.

The New Washington Coach compared Gibson to the fantasy god that is CMC that he happened to coach.


You have to do better!

Well those are the facts he had 1100 yards and 12 TDs in a year which was done by uhhhh a lot of backs every year.

He was given an offseason puff piece by a new coach, those always pan out every time.
I haven't seen him do anything that leads me to believe he's fit to be a lead back in the NFL.

[Ice]

You don't think it's noteworthy that he's never commanded a real workload dating back to JUCO? Are all of his coaches just idiots?

Your perception is certainly your reality.

Gibson's last year vs Kamara's last year.

Rushing and receiving stats:
1104 Yards 12 TD's in 2019. (12 games)
988 Yards 13 TD's in 2016. (11 games)

One played in the SEC and the other torched Navy, Cincy, and SMU for about 60% of his stats.

Kamara was an elite HS RB recruit, signed with Bama, got in trouble, ends up at Tennessee after JUCO, splits time with Jalen Hurd, and was coached by a man that is currently an intern for Alabama (seriously an intern). Hindsight now gives plenty of reasons as to why Kamara was underused. I know Kamara is the new trump card for lack of collegw usage and finding NFL success, but that doesn't mean its a good comparison. Gibson might be awesome, but I can't remember any player come even close to his resume getting this kind of hype, let alone being a productive NFL player. But hey, everyone has their own reality i guess.

I get all the volume truthers really believe that volume is everything.

Kamara, Odell, Brady, Sanders, DK, Jacobs, Burrow. I could go on and on about players with short resumes.

The fact remains this player put up 1100 plus yards on 1/2 the touches as Kamara did in his best year.

Conflating his last two years when anyone with computer can see he was a beast last year is pretty disingenuous.

The Haters are going to Hate in an effort to win their argument.
This player may very well bust but its the fool that doesn't concede his upside is obvious. He runs a sub 4.4 40, breaks tackles and his average per rush or reception is off the charts good.

FYI
Kamara was drafted 67th and Gibson went 66th

[Sriracha]

Your perception is certainly your reality.

Gibson's last year vs Kamara's last year.

Rushing and receiving stats:
1104 Yards 12 TD's in 2019. (12 games)
988 Yards 13 TD's in 2016. (11 games)

One played in the SEC and the other torched Navy, Cincy, and SMU for about 60% of his stats.

Kamara was an elite HS RB recruit, signed with Bama, got in trouble, ends up at Tennessee after JUCO, splits time with Jalen Hurd, and was coached by a man that is currently an intern for Alabama (seriously an intern). Hindsight now gives plenty of reasons as to why Kamara was underused. I know Kamara is the new trump card for lack of collegw usage and finding NFL success, but that doesn't mean its a good comparison. Gibson might be awesome, but I can't remember any player come even close to his resume getting this kind of hype, let alone being a productive NFL player. But hey, everyone has their own reality i guess.

I get all the volume truthers really believe that volume is everything.

Kamara, Odell, Brady, Sanders, DK, Jacobs, Burrow. I could go on and on about players with short resumes.

The fact remains this player put up 1100 plus yards on 1/2 the touches as Kamara did in his best year.

Conflating his last two years when anyone with computer can see he was a beast last year is pretty disingenuous.

The Haters are going to Hate in an effort to win their argument.
This player may very well bust but its the fool that doesn't concede his upside is obvious. He runs a sub 4.4 40, breaks tackles and his average per rush or reception is off the charts good.

FYI
Kamara was drafted 67th and Gibson went 66th

Not many people are saying he doesn't have upside.

We're arguing odds here. For every player you just listed there are many times over Christine Michaels, Hakeem Butlers, Dorial Green-Bekchams, Stephen Hills.

And even compared to these players, who have very limited sample sizes of succes... Gibson's lack of production over his full career dwarfs theres.

[Ice]

Yep,
Haters going to Hate!

[The MAC Machine]

Yep,
Haters going to Hate!

There is a difference between a hater and a realist. Just because you’re a grand optimist doesn’t make a realist a hater. Saying that someone has high ceiling and a low floor is probably more realistic than solely leaning into hype.