Antonio Gibson Rocket Ship - Round 2

[CGW]

I recently sold him for a 2021 1st (I took him at 2.10 this summer)

Huge win for you there. I've been fine with people drafting Gibson at the end of the 2nd or later, but lately I've seen him pumped into the early 2nd and late 1st. I'd much rather have some of these first round WRs than him in the 1st.

[Ice]

Every player Ever Drafted qualifies as boom or bust before they play a down in the NFL people.

Btw, if you don’t discount future picks your not playing this game correctly.

If you can get a Gibson type ,if you like the player, by moving up a few spots a year earlier than the asset you’re giving up that is a win given your player gets an entire year to develop and produce.

Stop making it sound like a great deal. It’s as common as it gets; not a good deal or a bad deal but a fair deal.

[Jigga94]

I get discounting picks but I also don't think a mid to late 2nd = 1st next year. To each their own

[Ice]

I get discounting picks but I also don't think a mid to late 2nd = 1st next year. To each their own

That is % based on the player you evaluated.
No such thing as random pick equality.

I typically offer 1st rounders next for a player on the board I covet starting at 2.1 for as long as a player I want is there.

Guess it’s more of a function of my draft board as opposed to to some random ADP or specific pick.

[murphysxm]

I will also go on record that I severly doubt Gibson will ever be an every down RB. He's been a gadget player since HS, why will that change in the NFL? I have shares of him and do think he has big play potential, but I plan to sell the frst time he has a big play. I see him as Tavon Austin. Once every 8 games he will break a long TD, but will be worthless in 6 of the games between. Not a guy I want on my roster.

[Patsfan86]

I own this guy but how in the hell is he being talked about like he is CMC or Barkley lol. I got him at 2.10 and have been trying to trade him all over but cant. Like ive said before ill be ecstatic if he is a James White/ Chris Thompson type player. How he is getting this amount of hype is beyond me? Also what if Lenny goes to Washington?

[Mjvb5]

I own this guy but how in the hell is he being talked about like he is CMC or Barkley lol. I got him at 2.10 and have been trying to trade him all over but cant. Like ive said before ill be ecstatic if he is a James White/ Chris Thompson type player. How he is getting this amount of hype is beyond me? Also what if Lenny goes to Washington?

Because he's big and fast and people think that because a coach who historically has throw minimally to his RB started throwing to mccaffrey that means his scheme is predicated around throwing to an RB.


But mainly because he's big and fast.

You wanna comp him to a guy on the Panthers, it's curtis samuel.

[Ice]

I will also go on record that I severly doubt Gibson will ever be an every down RB. He's been a gadget player since HS, why will that change in the NFL? I have shares of him and do think he has big play potential, but I plan to sell the frst time he has a big play. I see him as Tavon Austin. Once every 8 games he will break a long TD, but will be worthless in 6 of the games between. Not a guy I want on my roster.

If you have shares you probably got him at pretty affordable prices. Think you might want to hold a bit. He may have a couple of big plays in a game.

He is absolutely nothing like Tavon Austin. Austin was a converted RB much like Tyreek Hill except Hill actually hit. Gibson was primarily a RB in High School but went the other way to a degree in college.

Looks like he is coming back full circle to RB which is an easier position to play with much shorter routes.

No one is claiming he is not raw but at some point the fact that he averaged over 11.2 yards per rush and 19.3 yards per catch, broke 33 tackles on 77 touches and scored 14 TD's on those 77 touches should take notice that this kid oozes potential no matter where he lines up. BTW, I too have watched a lot of film and gadget plays as some think, not you, isn't remotely accurate.

Big Play is correct but it's 100 % skill based on tape.

12 of his TD's
Base set:
3 TD's running left from HB, 1 was a cut back to right. Nothing fancy.
1 TD running right from HB

Passing: All these are from X, Slot, or from HB position with no basic tricks.
Straight drop back mid level crossing 2 TD's
Bomb from slot 1 TD
Post from slot 1 TD
Slot TD from red zone 1 TD
Stacked set out pattern 1 TD
QB Option roll out from X 1 TD

On tape it's pretty obvious why Rivera really likes him. He can option from the backfield and potentially excel from the slot much like CMC.

His slot work on tape is really good.

The real argument one could make is he does have pretty small hands. Shorter touch throws will help him.

His volume is lacking but his skill set within the volume he actually outstanding. NFL teams draft on the potential they see.

This conversation id much like DK last year. Fantasy players and some GM's alike discounted him due to volume of work over quality of work IMO.

I get blasting this player on volume but the quality of the worked preformed does jump off the page.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

DK's volume per game was good though, Gibsons is not.

[Mike from Canada]

Every player Ever Drafted qualifies as boom or bust before they play a down in the NFL people.

Btw, if you don’t discount future picks your not playing this game correctly.

If you can get a Gibson type ,if you like the player, by moving up a few spots a year earlier than the asset you’re giving up that is a win given your player gets an entire year to develop and produce.

Stop making it sound like a great deal. It’s as common as it gets; not a good deal or a bad deal but a fair deal.

I don't get why future picks should be discounted. I get it in finance but how does that work here?

[Ice]

I don't get why future picks should be discounted. I get it in finance but how does that work here?

Not really sure this needs an explanation. If I own 2.5 as an example and you want it do you really think you can acquire it for some future random 2nd?

I have been doing this for decades and I just don't see this unless a specific draft class may be perceived extremely weak by pretty much everyone.

This class was considered deep at RB, and WR which drives up value. Next Year's class by comparison is full of question marks especially due to Covid.

One would be a fool IMO to trade away 2.5 as an example unless they got at least a projected middle 1st next and would pretty much have to really dislike this class.

A player you can get today has an entire year to develop and get better vs a complete unknown.

Think Bird in the hand so to speak.

[jenkins.math]

I don't get why future picks should be discounted. I get it in finance but how does that work here?

Not really sure this needs an explanation. If I own 2.5 as an example and you want it do you really think you can acquire it for some future random 2nd?

I have been doing this for decades and I just don't see this unless a specific draft class may be perceived extremely weak by pretty much everyone.

This class was considered deep at RB, and WR which drives up value. Next Year's class by comparison is full of question marks especially due to Covid.

One would be a fool IMO to trade away 2.5 as an example unless they got at least a projected middle 1st next and would pretty much have to really dislike this class.

A player you can get today has an entire year to develop and get better vs a complete unknown.

Think Bird in the hand so to speak.

See I think the fool would be anybody offering a mid 1st for a mid 2nd regardless of the class. As awesome as the 2020 class was hyped, according the Mizelle's ADP (single QB), the 2.05 equates to Zack Moss. Around the mid first range for 2021 (seen as much weaker even before COVID) you're probably talking Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle, Rashod Bateman. I think all of those guys are going to be seen as superior prospects in comparison to Moss.

Draft picks a year out shouldn't equate to an entire round of value lost.

[Jetsfan06]

Geez tough crowd in here. Which I get, we didn’t see a ton of work from him college. But a few things to point out:

1. He literally has 30 pounds Curtis samuel. He has a running back build with good height and solid wide frame.
2. To spin the lack of carries in a positive manner, you certainly won’t have to worry about him breaking down in the NFL. He definitely isn’t one of those guys who’s body is worn down after being a 4 year starter for example. So if he does become the starter we hope and envision then that is a great positive.
3. Athleticism is on his side. He hardly ever had to pass protect in college for example, but he has the frame to do it and there is nothing physically holding him back from being good at it. A lot of players in college get used incorrectly, Gibson appears to be one of them. But most teams in the NFL can maximize a players abilities, and it appears as though Washington wants to do that(as long as they don’t claim fournette)
4. From the camp notes I’ve seen he has had very good vision and terrific change of direction. Plus he has a receiver pedigree which as a RB puts him in great shape to be a bellcow one day. Even if it doesn’t work out then at least he has a safe 3rd down RB floor. I just can’t see how he would be out of the NFL in a few years with his athleticism/talent combo.
5. Lastly how often do you get the opportunity to take a RB with this kind of upside in the mid to late second? Hell I got him in the early third this year in a draft. If the price keeps going up then it won’t be as beneficial, but how often do you get to draft a RB late 2nd that has the potential to be as good as the first few rbs off the board? Seriously it’s insane value not to take a chance on. Draft one of the stud receivers in the first and take the ultimate potential reward with Gibson at the price of a 2nd.

[Ice]

I don't get why future picks should be discounted. I get it in finance but how does that work here?

Not really sure this needs an explanation. If I own 2.5 as an example and you want it do you really think you can acquire it for some future random 2nd?

I have been doing this for decades and I just don't see this unless a specific draft class may be perceived extremely weak by pretty much everyone.

This class was considered deep at RB, and WR which drives up value. Next Year's class by comparison is full of question marks especially due to Covid.

One would be a fool IMO to trade away 2.5 as an example unless they got at least a projected middle 1st next and would pretty much have to really dislike this class.

A player you can get today has an entire year to develop and get better vs a complete unknown.

Think Bird in the hand so to speak.

Draft picks a year out shouldn't equate to an entire round of value lost.

Should or shouldn't isn't really relative in my example. Sometimes value is greater or less. The point is no one really trades a pick for a pick. The person acquiring the current pick, if they have any sense at all, is targeting a specific asset and if they have a 1st round grade on the player they will pay the price obviously.

Obviously, there isn't a hard and fast rule but if you live by those in fantasy, your competition will ultimately see it and run over those type of players more often than not from what I have seen over the last 30 plus years playing this crazy game.

[Bronco Billy]

Every player Ever Drafted qualifies as boom or bust before they play a down in the NFL people.

Btw, if you don’t discount future picks your not playing this game correctly.

If you can get a Gibson type ,if you like the player, by moving up a few spots a year earlier than the asset you’re giving up that is a win given your player gets an entire year to develop and produce.

Stop making it sound like a great deal. It’s as common as it gets; not a good deal or a bad deal but a fair deal.

I don't get why future picks should be discounted. I get it in finance but how does that work here?

Because relevant information has substantial value, and future draft picks have virtually none of that. There’s no way to know how a player will perform in the NFL until they get to the NFL and start competing against NFL level competition. So even a top rookie FF pick has a lot more unknowns than any rookie who has been going head to head with their NFL peers for a while. Think of even sure things like Trent Richardson and Charles Rogers - they were supposed to be locked in FF plug-and-play players for years.

We simply know a lot more about Gibson right now than we do about 2021 pick 1.10. We don’t even know who 2021 1.10 would be, much less whether he even looks capable at the NFL level, but we would know right now if Gibson had no business being on the field or if, like we do now, that he has exhibited some traits in TC and preseason that indicate that he could have a FF valuable career. That doesn’t mean he’s turned that corner yet - that will happen in anywhere from 1 1/2 weeks to 1 1/2 years from now. But so far the signs are much more positive than they were say 6 months ago. A bird in the hand indeed.