You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP when it was your “last chance” to sell him in August 2019: 103.17
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
So you’re saying people are getting progressively dumber? Can’t argue with that. Plenty of non-fantasy related evidence of that lately, so I’m not surprised it’s seeping into our little hobby.OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:52 am Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP when it was your “last chance” to sell him in August 2019: 103.17
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
Both are 12-team 1QB PPR dynasties
🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer
Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years
QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0
🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer
Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years
QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0
Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
What are you basing this statement on? Everything that has happened since the end of last season until now makes the case that his value should be increasing.M-Dub wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:34 pmSo you’re saying people are getting progressively dumber? Can’t argue with that. Plenty of non-fantasy related evidence of that lately, so I’m not surprised it’s seeping into our little hobby.OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:52 am Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP when it was your “last chance” to sell him in August 2019: 103.17
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
Since the end of last season, the Bucs have spent a day two pick on a rookie RB with a 3-down profile and signed Shady, while RoJo put on 20 lbs despite his best trait being straight-line speed. If you consider those reasons for optimism, I’m not sure what to tell you...thebeast wrote: ↑Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:33 amWhat are you basing this statement on? Everything that has happened since the end of last season until now makes the case that his value should be increasing.M-Dub wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:34 pmSo you’re saying people are getting progressively dumber? Can’t argue with that. Plenty of non-fantasy related evidence of that lately, so I’m not surprised it’s seeping into our little hobby.OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:52 am Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP when it was your “last chance” to sell him in August 2019: 103.17
Ronald Jones’ Mizelle ADP in August 2020: 91.17, a full round earlier.
Both are 12-team 1QB PPR dynasties
🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer
Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years
QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0
🦬PRIME🦬
QB: Hurts, Howell
RB: Mixon, Jones, Sanders, Dobbins, Akers, Roschon, Dowdle, Kelley
WR: Nuk, Godwin, Cooper, Lockett, Flowers, Chark, Collins, Hollins, Tillman, Tolbert
TE: Hockenson, Chig, Trautman
Taxi: Willis, Z. White, M. Mims, T. Palmer
Hull Awaits
$450 cap, 60 contract years
QB: Lawrence $5/3, Richardson $5/5, Minshew $1/0, Jones $1/0, Heinicke $1/0, Tyrod $1/0
RB: Achane $4/4, Warren $2/4, Roschon $7/5, Dillon $4/1, Hubbard $2/1, Kelley $1/0
WR: Nuk $78/1, MT $25/1, M. Williams $1/0, JSN $21/5, Reed $4/5, Rice $4/5, M. Wilson $2/5
TE: Thomas $1/0, Hill $1/0, Parham $1/0
Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
I came here to say this. The RoJo love is ridiculous to me. Maybe he'll be amazing and prove me wrong, but that usually happens right away, not year 3. Good NFL RBs start producing immediately. RoJo is still a hard sell for me.M-Dub wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:54 amSince the end of last season, the Bucs have spent a day two pick on a rookie RB with a 3-down profile and signed Shady, while RoJo put on 20 lbs despite his best trait being straight-line speed. If you consider those reasons for optimism, I’m not sure what to tell you...
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2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
True for the most part but then you have outliers like Derrick Henry here and there, so it does happen. I am by no means a RoJo truther btw.dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:26 amI came here to say this. The RoJo love is ridiculous to me. Maybe he'll be amazing and prove me wrong, but that usually happens right away, not year 3. Good NFL RBs start producing immediately. RoJo is still a hard sell for me.M-Dub wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:54 amSince the end of last season, the Bucs have spent a day two pick on a rookie RB with a 3-down profile and signed Shady, while RoJo put on 20 lbs despite his best trait being straight-line speed. If you consider those reasons for optimism, I’m not sure what to tell you...
Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
I'm still not buying him as the future for the Bucs. But I'm also not buying Vaughn a round earlier than RoJo. I wouldn't be shocked to see RoJo and McCoy splitting carries this year, with the occasional sprinkle of Vaughn. They were always going to bring in RB depth. You are kidding yourself if you thought they would move forward with just RoJo. Vaughn and McCoy were probably best case scenario for RoJo. There are 6 rookies I like better than Vaughn, and McCoy is one of the less threatening FA. If this was a Dobbins+Freeman it would be a different story.
As I've said several times, it's not about love or hate of RoJo. It's the fact that no1 is paying a 1st to buy him (or even a decent 2nd), so if you already have him on your roster you may as well hold onto him at that price.
As I've said several times, it's not about love or hate of RoJo. It's the fact that no1 is paying a 1st to buy him (or even a decent 2nd), so if you already have him on your roster you may as well hold onto him at that price.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Burrow
RB |
WR | Puka, Olave, Smith, Flowers, Dotson, Addison
TE | Pitts, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1.01, 1.02, 4.01, 5.01
2025 | 1stx3, 3rdx3
10 Team | SF | PPR | 2023 Champ
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Allen, Stroud, Young
RB | K Williams, White, Monty, Herbert, Chandler
WR | Lamb, AJB, Puka, Waddle, Mooney, J. Williams, Watson, Davis
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1.04, 3.10
12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF
QB | Herbert Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, K Williams, Singletary, Henry, A Jones, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Puka, Flowers, Downs,
TE | Hockenson, Likely, Otton
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Burrow
RB |
WR | Puka, Olave, Smith, Flowers, Dotson, Addison
TE | Pitts, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1.01, 1.02, 4.01, 5.01
2025 | 1stx3, 3rdx3
10 Team | SF | PPR | 2023 Champ
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Allen, Stroud, Young
RB | K Williams, White, Monty, Herbert, Chandler
WR | Lamb, AJB, Puka, Waddle, Mooney, J. Williams, Watson, Davis
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1.04, 3.10
12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF
QB | Herbert Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, K Williams, Singletary, Henry, A Jones, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Puka, Flowers, Downs,
TE | Hockenson, Likely, Otton
Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
So the Bucs pass on all the elite college RBs and get a guy in the 3rd round and that is a negative for Rojo? They were always going to draft a RB, they weren't going to just go into the season with Jones and Dare. The Vaughn pick was his best case scenario in a draft loaded with RB talent. Every scouting report I've read on Vaughn has pre-draft has projected his ceiling as an NFL back up RB.M-Dub wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:54 amSince the end of last season, the Bucs have spent a day two pick on a rookie RB with a 3-down profile and signed Shady, while RoJo put on 20 lbs despite his best trait being straight-line speed. If you consider those reasons for optimism, I’m not sure what to tell you...
From week 8-16 in ppr league Jones was RB 22, Mosterat was RB 21, Montgomery was RB 23... I actually hope people keep sleeping on him, because I think he is a great target at his current value. He is the type of guy everyone should be looking for, someone whos value could increase 5-fold by next year. I am not saying that will happen, my point is he is the type of guy you want to take a shot on because the cost is low and the potential return is huge.
Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
Context is hard to interpret sometimes, but Arians said Vaughn may get on the field with a role as a kick returner. Doesnt sound good for those expecting Vaughn to overtake RoJo right away this season.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Burrow
RB |
WR | Puka, Olave, Smith, Flowers, Dotson, Addison
TE | Pitts, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1.01, 1.02, 4.01, 5.01
2025 | 1stx3, 3rdx3
10 Team | SF | PPR | 2023 Champ
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Allen, Stroud, Young
RB | K Williams, White, Monty, Herbert, Chandler
WR | Lamb, AJB, Puka, Waddle, Mooney, J. Williams, Watson, Davis
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1.04, 3.10
12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF
QB | Herbert Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, K Williams, Singletary, Henry, A Jones, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Puka, Flowers, Downs,
TE | Hockenson, Likely, Otton
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Burrow
RB |
WR | Puka, Olave, Smith, Flowers, Dotson, Addison
TE | Pitts, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1.01, 1.02, 4.01, 5.01
2025 | 1stx3, 3rdx3
10 Team | SF | PPR | 2023 Champ
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Allen, Stroud, Young
RB | K Williams, White, Monty, Herbert, Chandler
WR | Lamb, AJB, Puka, Waddle, Mooney, J. Williams, Watson, Davis
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1.04, 3.10
12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF
QB | Herbert Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, K Williams, Singletary, Henry, A Jones, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Puka, Flowers, Downs,
TE | Hockenson, Likely, Otton
Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
I expect RoJo to be the starter this season. Vaughn is a bust imo and McCoy couldn't even suit up for the Super Bowl. They basically have nobody else to rely on, so it's RoJo by default.
I expect him to fail enough during the year to be replaced by next season. Missing some key blocks, specifically. I really do fear that a missed block by RoJo will end Brady's career.
I expect him to fail enough during the year to be replaced by next season. Missing some key blocks, specifically. I really do fear that a missed block by RoJo will end Brady's career.
ULTIMATE RB GURUs
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!
REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134
2021 RB Injury Guru: abloom "Akers will suffer an ACL injury in the preseason and does not play during the season."
2021 RB Guru: qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj & McCafsteez -- Winners of the Antonio Gibson Wager!
REAL RB GURUs:
CubfanAA - Anteaters - Ice - JJRules - TheNuts - jtk1234 - Bronco Billy - YouMightDieTryin - hockeyBjj - honcho55 - murphysxm - Patsfan86 - jman3134
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
I’m buying. I don’t think RoJo is going to miraculously develop into a stud RB, but he’s got to be just about the cheapest RB with real potential for 15-20 touches a game. If he busts, it costs you, what, a second?
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
RoJo's case is getting weird. He just turned 23, and he's going in the late 4th of high stakes redraft leagues... but his dynasty value is incredibly flat, sitting pretty squarely in that 8th-9th round.
Normally, I'd suggest that one of those things is wrong and lean toward trusting the high stakes data, but I'm not sure that's the case. Young players who are more valued by the redraft community than the dynasty community tend to play well and then see their dynasty ADP rise- like Austin Ekeler last year. In this case, maybe they can both be right, because I think it's almost impossible that Jones' dynasty ADP will ever actually improve.
I think that the dynasty community is so permanently take-locked on Jones (I too hated him as a prospect) that his value is never going to reflect his production. He would need to put up back to back RB1 seasons, and even then I'd be surprised if he breaks into the top 12 RBs in ADP. There's also the possibility that with a huge free agent class looming and some decent RBs in Etienne, Hubbard, Harris, and Hill in the draft, that he gets outright replaced in 2021.
I tend to run my teams by focusing primarily, if not almost exclusively, on value; because of that, even on contenders it's unlikely that I would try to buy Jones right now. If you're considering buying, then I think you need to be in one of two situations:
1. You're a true believer, and you think Jones is talented enough to lock down that job for the next two years of his contract and potentially get an extension.
2. You're a contender, you can get him for cheap, and you're okay with the fact that the odds of you ever being able to get real value back for him are negligible, even if he totally lights it up.
In any case, the original thesis of this thread, that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was in August of 2019, appears to be demonstrably false.
Normally, I'd suggest that one of those things is wrong and lean toward trusting the high stakes data, but I'm not sure that's the case. Young players who are more valued by the redraft community than the dynasty community tend to play well and then see their dynasty ADP rise- like Austin Ekeler last year. In this case, maybe they can both be right, because I think it's almost impossible that Jones' dynasty ADP will ever actually improve.
I think that the dynasty community is so permanently take-locked on Jones (I too hated him as a prospect) that his value is never going to reflect his production. He would need to put up back to back RB1 seasons, and even then I'd be surprised if he breaks into the top 12 RBs in ADP. There's also the possibility that with a huge free agent class looming and some decent RBs in Etienne, Hubbard, Harris, and Hill in the draft, that he gets outright replaced in 2021.
I tend to run my teams by focusing primarily, if not almost exclusively, on value; because of that, even on contenders it's unlikely that I would try to buy Jones right now. If you're considering buying, then I think you need to be in one of two situations:
1. You're a true believer, and you think Jones is talented enough to lock down that job for the next two years of his contract and potentially get an extension.
2. You're a contender, you can get him for cheap, and you're okay with the fact that the odds of you ever being able to get real value back for him are negligible, even if he totally lights it up.
In any case, the original thesis of this thread, that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was in August of 2019, appears to be demonstrably false.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
I got him at 7.09 in a SF startup this week. After James Conner and before Vaughan and Moss. I got Mark Ingram at 11.09 in the same draft.
Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
I don't know why you care all that much about that?OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:06 pm In any case, the original thesis of this thread, that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was in August of 2019, appears to be demonstrably false.
The take was that he is bad, and you actually agree.
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Re: You Can Trade Away RoJo Now... Last Chance?
Just trying to keep things on topic.trc wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:05 pmI don't know why you care all that much about that?OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:06 pm In any case, the original thesis of this thread, that your last chance to sell Ronald Jones was in August of 2019, appears to be demonstrably false.
The take was that he is bad, and you actually agree.
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