Postby iherscovitch » Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:52 pm
FiremanEd wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:40 am
The OP said estimated mid-picks (Yes, I missed that piece in a previous comment about ‘foolish to not ask where’. Guilty.), which in a 10 team league is probably 1.04-1.07. The OP also said that he has WR and TE, but could use QB and RB. Odds are, what we know is the 2021 class, is that some decent prospects will be there (Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Hubbard, Ettienne), but even if he doesn’t get them, then he can have a quality WR prospect, or use the pick to trade for a QB/RB. Draft picks generally have more trade flexibility than a particular player may, across the entire league. A player like McLaurin may not have the same trade value to some owners, especially if he’s going on 26 with one season to his name. Whether we agree or not, some won’t give the same value assessment, but a draft pick may given it could be multiple players/positions.
The 2nd in a 10 team league, mid-pick, also has quality outlook to help add depth (any position).
It isn’t necessarily putting down McLaurin’s outlook, but rather protecting value and adding flexibility, all while hedging on the 2020 season. If there was a 2020 season assured, I agree he’d have a good chance to increase value given what his target share should be.
Specific to player risk on the selection, that exists, but so does value insulation and the chance to hit on the pick. Davis retained value for years. Draft pedigree and age insulation will give grace period to get out. Ultimately though he wants a non-WR though too.
Acknowledge the masses prefer McLaurin for the picks straight up. I see the rationale, but think it ignores some risks (I.e. if the pick is high instead, if there is no 2020 season, etc.). It isn’t just about Terry’s age, but that definitely is a variable too in some instances.
Is anyone taking the McLaurin/Fuller vs Reagor/mid1st/mid2nd though? Even if you prefer McLaurin to Reagor, it doesn’t cover the excess of the 1st/2nd over Fuller does it?
I tend to agree with this logic. This is all about
perceived value and the ability to balance my roster in order to compete in 2021. I know I'll need another solid RB and QB to consider myself a contender, and I also know WR will be the most easily replaced/traded for position.
Let's run through a few scenarios:
1) The 2020 season happens, Terry's value goes up and he's seen as a top 12-15 dynasty WR heading into 2021.
2) The 2020 season happens, Terry doesn't skyrocket as expected, and he's seen as a top 20-25 dynasty WR heading into 2021.
3) The 2020 season is canceled/cut short, Terry's value stagnates and he's seen as a top 20-25 dynasty WR heading into 2021.
Can I trade Terry for a starting QB in scenario 1? Maybe. I'd need to find a WR-needy team with an excess of QBs. Scenario 2 and 3? forget about it.
Now imagine if I had the picks instead and I'm on the clock during the 2021 rookie draft. Could I trade 1.04-1.07 for a QB? Much more likely given that lots of teams will covet the draft pick due to its positional flexibility (I just traded the 1.05 this year for Baker Mayfield). I could also flip that pick for a WR (the 2020 1.08 was just flipped for Diggs+Dede Westbrook).
Even in scenario 1, the total perceived value of the 2021 picks would equal or exceed Terry. A 26 year old top 10-15 WR has a DLF trade value of ~350-450. During rookie draft season, the 1.05 alone is worth ~450. A worst case late 1st+2nd would have total value of ~350. Late 1st round WRs in next year's draft will slot in immediately as top-25 dynasty WRs (just look at where Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor sit in DLF's rankings). This would be literally the worst case scenario where the pick ends up 1.08-1.10.
This all comes down to probabilities for me. I believe that the only chance for value loss is in scenario 1 where Terry keeps ascending in 2020 and I end up with a
late 2021 1st+2nd.
All other scenarios result in equal or greater value in the 2021 picks no matter where they land, while also affording me better trading flexibility.
10-Team PPR SF/TE Premium (1.5PPR)
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 SF
QB: Goff, Mayfield, Taysom Hill, Brissett, Mullens
RB: M Sanders, Singletary, Duke Johnson, Snell, R Freeman, Mckinnon, Benjamin
WR: Godwin, Chark, Mclaurin, Deebo, Lamb, Boyd, Fuller, A Miller, Ross, Isabella, Cephus
TE: Andrews, Hockenson, OJ Howard, Jarwin, Oliver
2021 - 1, 1, 2, 2
2022 - 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2