WR's who break out in Year 1 are GOLD JERRY, GOLD!

[Johnny Canuck]

I could see lowering the breakout for year 1 ONLY to 850 or 900 yards, or a fantasy point threshold.

Using the same criteria as in the OP, here's the hit/bust break down for a rookie year, 900 yard threshold, and a 850 yard threshold.

Year 1 breakout @ 900 Yards
Hits - 12
Busts - 7
Hit Rate – 63%
Bust Rate – 37%

Year 1 breakout @ 850 Yards
Hits - 14
Busts - 11
Hit Rate – 56%
Bust Rate – 44%

Seems like the old adage of 1000 yards for a true stud may be that for a reason

[ericanadian]

I could see lowering the breakout for year 1 ONLY to 850 or 900 yards, or a fantasy point threshold.

Using the same criteria as in the OP, here's the hit/bust break down for a rookie year, 900 yard threshold, and a 850 yard threshold.

Year 1 breakout @ 900 Yards
Hits - 12
Busts - 7
Hit Rate – 63%
Bust Rate – 37%

Year 1 breakout @ 850 Yards
Hits - 14
Busts - 11
Hit Rate – 56%
Bust Rate – 44%

Seems like the old adage of 1000 yards for a true stud may be that for a reason

Makes sense as most of these guys are the guys that break out in year 2.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I could see lowering the breakout for year 1 ONLY to 850 or 900 yards, or a fantasy point threshold.

Using the same criteria as in the OP, here's the hit/bust break down for a rookie year, 900 yard threshold, and a 850 yard threshold.

Year 1 breakout @ 900 Yards
Hits - 12
Busts - 7
Hit Rate – 63%
Bust Rate – 37%

Year 1 breakout @ 850 Yards
Hits - 14
Busts - 11
Hit Rate – 56%
Bust Rate – 44%

Seems like the old adage of 1000 yards for a true stud may be that for a reason

Great work. Yeah people are constantly trying to find loopholes around the 1k yard mark and for whatever reason it seems to hold up really well as a solid benchmark.

Interesting that a rookie who puts up 900 yards is as safe or safer than a 2nd or 3rd year player that puts up 1k+. Good for DK

Did you find an easier way to find the numbers other than going through the yearly draft orders and clicking on every rookies name to see their stats?

[Johnny Canuck]

Did you find an easier way to find the numbers other than going through the yearly draft orders and clicking on every rookies name to see their stats?

I started that way then got annoyed. But then I found the advanced search tab on Pro-Football-Reference which made it way easier. Here's the link if you wanna play around https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... finder.cgi

[Johnny Canuck]

Interesting that a rookie who puts up 900 yards is as safe or safer than a 2nd or 3rd year player that puts up 1k+. Good for DK

Another interesting way to look at it is to sell high on an asset that hit 850 yards in their rookie yr and appears to be set for success. When in reality their percentile for breakout is no better than a 3rd yr breakout (58% vs 56%).

For example, selling Deebo (closest player to 850 last yr), for a pair of potential 3rd yr breakout players (that ppl have grown impatient with - maybe A. Miller and Kirk to put names to it) would actually increase your odds of obtaining a breakout player - which feels counterintuitive but isn't.

Obvs this can backfire and you end up selling a DJM for someone lesser (or you could of sold him for Godwin), either way, the math says you'd win these trades more often than lose.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Did you find an easier way to find the numbers other than going through the yearly draft orders and clicking on every rookies name to see their stats?

I started that way then got annoyed. But then I found the advanced search tab on Pro-Football-Reference which made it way easier. Here's the link if you wanna play around https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... finder.cgi

oh wow. this would have saved me a lot of time lol. Thanks. I'm gonna mess around with this later.

If we ignore draft capital to the 1k group we get Colston added on as well. By far the best measurement for future success it seems.

edit: Sorting by receptions can get you some very interesting lists as well.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Using the "tool" Johnny showed me I was able to crunch some numbers a lot faster. These numbers below do NOT factor in draft capital at all.

_____________________________________
Players from 1995-2015
Hit = 3+ 1,000 yard receiving seasons
Draft Capital is ignored
_____________________________________

1000+ Yards Rookie Year
Hits - 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%

Players from 2016-Present that hit this threshold as rookies
AJ Brown
Michael Thomas

_____________________________________

900+ Yards Rookie Year
Hits – 14
Busts – 7
Hit Rate – 67%
Bust Rate – 33%

Players from 2016-Present that hit this threshold as rookies
DK Metcalf
Terry McLaurin
Juju Smith-Schuster

_____________________________________

800+ Yards Rookie Year
Hits – 18
Busts – 18
Hit Rate – 50%
Bust Rate – 50%

Players from 2016-Present that hit this threshold as rookies
Deebo Samuel
Calvin Ridley
Cooper Kupp

_____________________________________

700+ Yards Rookie Year
Hits – 24
Busts – 32
Hit Rate – 43%
Bust Rate – 57%

Players from 2016-Present that hit this threshold as rookies
Darius Slayton
D.J. Moore
Courtland Sutton
Keelan Cole

_____________________________________

600+ Yards Rookie Year
Hits – 24
Busts – 50
Hit Rate – 32%
Bust Rate – 68%

Players from 2016-Present that hit this threshold as rookies
Dionte Johnson
Hunter Renfrow
Sterling Shepard
Will Fuller
Tyler Boyd

_____________________________________

[Dynasty DeLorean]

We can also look at receptions instead of yards.

_________________________________________

100+ Receptions Rookie Year
Hits – 1
Busts – 0
Hit Rate – 100%
Bust Rate – 0%

_________________________________________

90+ Receptions Rookie Year
Hits – 3
Busts – 1
Hit Rate – 75%
Bust Rate – 25%

Players from 2016-Present that hit this threshold as rookies
Michael Thomas

_________________________________________

80+ Receptions Rookie Year
Hits – 4
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 67%
Bust Rate – 33%

_________________________________________

70+ Receptions Rookie Year
Hits – 8
Busts – 3
Hit Rate – 73%
Bust Rate – 27%

_________________________________________

60+ Receptions Rookie Year
Hits – 16
Busts – 14
Hit Rate – 53%
Bust Rate – 47%

Players from 2016-Present that hit this threshold as rookies
Calvin Ridley
Cooper Kupp
Sterling Shepard
Tyreek Hill

_________________________________________

50+ Receptions Rookie Year
Hits – 23
Busts – 32
Hit Rate – 42%
Bust Rate – 58%

Players from 2016-Present that hit this threshold as rookies
Diontae Johnson
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
Juju Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
D.J. Moore
Tyler Boyd
A.J. Brown

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I'm realizing i should have made them into smaller groups of 50-59 receptions, then 60-69, etc etc. Same with yardage too. I'll re-do the math on that tomorrow. Should be able to figure it out from the hits and misses change from each group.

[Pullo Vision]

I appreciate the work, DD, and thanks Johnny for the assist!

[Johnny Canuck]

Just for fun I was playing around with TE stats to see if I saw any trends from that position. It appears that TEs which hit a single season mark of 850 yards within their 1st or 2nd season are the gold standard for a benchmark.

Hits - 6
Busts - 2
Hit Rate - 75%
Bust Rate - 25%

Hit = 850 yards, 3 or more seasons.

Using that threshold for a hit, Jeremy Shockey was a bust. That said, Shockey was a top 12 TE six times, and top 7 TE four times, so I don't think calling him a bust is accurate. Putting Shockey as a hit we get...

Hits - 7
Busts - 1
Hit Rate - 88%
Bust Rate - 12%

That makes the Aaron Hernandez the lone bust, and we all know his career was ended short. If he would of kept his head on straight who knows if there would be any busts in this 850+ yard cohort.

The only TEs since 2015 that hit this benchmark are Mark Andrews and George Kittle.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Ok I think I did my math right when breaking it down into groups. Very revealing stuff in that the only rookie yardage marker with a greater than 50% hit rate is 1,000+. 900-999 gives you only a 50/50 shot and anything less gives you a 30% chance at best. That’s a lot lower than I would have expected. For rookie year receptions, we are looking at 70+ for favorable odds of success.

1995-2015
Hit: 3 1,000+ yard receiving seasons during their entire career

Rookie season yardage

1000+
Hits - 10
Busts – 2
Hit Rate – 83%
Bust Rate – 17%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Michael Thomas
A.J. Brown

________________________________________

900-999
Hits 4
Busts 5
Hit rate 44%
Bust rate 56%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Terry McLaurin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
D.K. Metcalf

________________________________________

800-899
Hits 4
Busts 11
Hit rate 27%
Bust rate 73%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Cooper Kupp
Calvin Ridley
Deebo Samuel

________________________________________

700-799
Hits 6
Busts 14
Hit rate 30%
Bust rate 70%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
D.J. Moore
Keelan Cole
Darius Slayton
Courtland Sutton

________________________________________

600-699
Hits 1
Busts 17
Hit rate 6%
Bust rate 94%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Sterling Shepard
Diontae Johnson
Will Fuller
Hunter Renfrow
Tyler Boyd

________________________________________

500-599
Hits 2
Busts 29
Hit rate 6%
Bust rate 94%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Eli Rogers
Tyreek Hill
Christian Kirk
Robby Anderson
Antonio Callaway
Marquise Brown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Robert Foster
Mecole Hardman
Chris Godwin
Tajae Sharpe
Michael Gallup

________________________________________

400-499
Hits – 2
Busts – 33
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Breshad Perriman
Kenny Golladay
Dante Pettis
Trent Taylor
Preston Williams
Tre-Quan Smith
Anthony Miller
Corey Coleman
Malcolm Mitchell

________________________________________

300-399
Hits – 6
Busts – 28
Hit Rate – 18%
Bust Rate – 82%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Corey Davis
Kelvin Harmon
Jakobi Meyers
Dede Westbrook
Equanimeous St. Brown
Zay Jones
Tim Patrick
Steven Sims

________________________________________

200-299
Hits – 5
Busts – 65
Hit Rate – 7%
Bust Rate – 93%

Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Olabisi Johnson
Keke Coutee
Zach Pascal
Kendrick Bourne
Taywan Taylor
James Washington
Scott miller

________________________________________

100-199
Hits – 6
Busts – 95
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%

Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Miles Boykin
Andy Isabella
KeeSean Johnson
Kevin White
DJ Chark
JJAWS
Parris Campbell
Curtis Samuel
N'Keal Harry
Josh Reynolds

________________________________________

0-99
There were hundreds of names so I didn't go through them all with a fine toothed comb, but from what I can gather the hit rate is at about 1%. Vincent Jackson, Santana Moss, Donald Driver, Joe Horn, Amani Toomer the hits in nearly 600 names.

Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Chad Hansen
Trey Quinn
Riley Ridley
Russell Gage
Auden Tate
Allen Lazard
Justin Watson
John Ross
Mike Williams
Leonte Carroo
Josh Doctson
Braxton Miller
Demarcus Robinson
"Good" Mike Thomas
Lequon Treadwell


- Even if you cross reference by draft round, the highest hit rate I can get for the 500-599 group is 10%. So draft capital really doesn’t seem to play much of a role.


________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________


Rookie Season Receptions

100+
Hits 1
Busts 0
Hit rate 100%
Bust rate 0%

________________________________________

90-99
Hits 2
Busts 1
Hit rate 67%
Bust rate 33%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Michael Thomas

________________________________________

80-89
Hits 1
Busts 1
Hit rate 50%
Bust rate 50%

________________________________________

70-79
Hits 4
Busts 1
Hit rate 80%
Bust rate 20%

________________________________________

60-69
Hits 8
Busts 11
Hit rate 42%
Bust rate 58%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Sterling Shepard
Calvin Ridley
Cooper Kupp
Tyreek Hill

________________________________________

50-59
Hits 7
Busts 18
Hit rate 28%
Bust rate 72%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Diontae Johnson
Terry McLaurin
D.K. Metcalf
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
D.J. Moore
Tyler Boyd
A.J. Brown

________________________________________

40-49
Hits – 2
Busts – 34
Hit Rate – 6%
Bust Rate – 94%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Hunter Renfrow
Darius Slayton
Eli Rogers
Will Fuller
Marquise Brown
Antonio Callaway
Christian Kirk
Trent Taylor
Courtland Sutton
Keelan Cole
Robby Anderson
Tajae Sharpe

________________________________________

30-39
Hits – 4
Busts – 44
Hit Rate – 8%
Bust Rate – 92%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Steven Sims
Corey Davis
Chris Godwin
Michael Gallup
Anthony Miller
Corey Coleman
Breshad Perriman
Preston Williams
Malcolm Mitchell
Olabisi Johnson
Kelvin Harmon
DaeSean Hamilton

________________________________________

20-29
Hits – 10
Busts – 57
Hit Rate – 15%
Bust Rate – 85%

Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Greg Ward
Keke Coutee
Tre`Quan Smith
Kenny Golladay
Robert Foster
Zach Pascal
Dante Pettis
Zay Jones
Dede Westbrook
Mecole Hardman
Jakobi Meyers
Ty Johnson
Tim Patrick
DeAndre Carter
KeeSean Johnson
Dquanimeous St. Brown

________________________________________

10-19
Hits – 5
Busts – 102
Hit Rate – 5%
Bust Rate – 95%

Notable Rookies from 2016-2019 who qualify
Kevin White
Parris CAmpbell
James Washington
Kendrick Bourne
Curtis Samuel
DJ Chark
Miles Boykin
Scott Miller
N'Keal Harry
Mike Williams
JJAWS

[Sriracha]

Surprised the difference is so massive, but probably need to divvy the ranges above 1,000+

DK vs AJB is an interesting dichotomy (I love both, prefer AJB given his efficiency) but if you include the playoffs DK actually finished with more receiving yards in one less game.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Surprised the difference is so massive, but probably need to divvy the ranges above 1,000+

DK vs AJB is an interesting dichotomy (I love both, prefer AJB given his efficiency) but if you include the playoffs DK actually finished with more receiving yards in one less game.

Yeah, the difference is massive. I was thinking maybe it's because the 1k group already has 1 1k season under their belt, giving them an "unfair" advantage in the race to 3 such seasons. But I just double checked and that's not the case, all hits for the rookie 1k seasons have had at least 4+ 1k yard receiving seasons. The difference simply is that great.

[Pac_Eddy]

Surprised the difference is so massive, but probably need to divvy the ranges above 1,000+

DK vs AJB is an interesting dichotomy (I love both, prefer AJB given his efficiency) but if you include the playoffs DK actually finished with more receiving yards in one less game.

Yeah, the difference is massive. I was thinking maybe it's because the 1k group already has 1 1k season under their belt, giving them an "unfair" advantage in the race to 3 such seasons. But I just double checked and that's not the case, all hits for the rookie 1k seasons have had at least 4+ 1k yard receiving seasons. The difference simply is that great.

Would you say this data means the "third year breakout" isn't really a thing?