COVID Sell-Highs

[StripesOfKC]

Drake is a solid one.

I low-key think Pittsburgh extends Conner for cheap. Since he's been drafted we've been hearing that the Steelers are going to replace him, and I just don't see it.

I am beginning to think this too with how saturated the RB market is (preventing Conner from getting the money he wants elsewhere), but there is still risk

[FiremanEd]

Who are guys who have their value bumped UP by the prospect of a lost season (if that does happen)?

Ones I can think of off the top of my head:

QB: Jordan Love, Tua
RB: AJ Dillon, JK Dobbins
WR: Terry McLaurin, DJ Chark (both teams could have Trevor Lawrence as their QB next time they come out)
TE: Irv Smith (Rudolph could be gone), TJ Hockenson (Lions only have one WR under contract for 2021--Quintez Cephus--but likely two after extending Golladay but still lose Jones and Amendola)

I have a tough time believing McLaurin will go up in value with a lost season. I mean, he will be 25 in September, thus 26 going into his Year 2 if the season is lost. He will have one respectable season to his name and be 26. Sure he could have a QB improvement, but I’d rather have had a second year to prove his performance and still have had the very high chance at one of the top two QB prospects. I would expect some added competition in the near future as well (Because it’s hard to have less), but 2020 was his best chance at a monopoly on targets and would have been lost.

I guess I just view McLaurin as at least offset due to age on a lost season. Not many people are jumping to buy 26 year olds with one 65/900 yard season to their name.

Edit: July ADP has McLaurin at WR23, of which I’m referencing as far as going up even further.

[hockeyBjj]

Any older player who isn't yet seen as a 1 year rental, but will be soon

Any not stud looking but young hyped player that will sorely miss a year of development (like a Darius Slyaton)

[TheNuts]

Drake, Bell, Hopkins, Adams, Beckham, Julio, MT, , Kelce. All top end guy, or being valued as such at or beyond the age apex who are going to lose a year of top end production (if things go wrong) and see a value decline due to age in Dynasty in a significant way soon.

Ingram,Brady, Brees, Gronk. Guys being valued based on this year, basically.

I disagree with kelce. He is going to be with that team for years still. He may not be quite the same athlete in a few years, but he will still be there and still be a reliable target for Mahaomes. There are very few guarantees and consistent tight ends for fantasy. His stability is worth the price.

[TheNuts]

I also disagree with Minshew. The talent is there imo. He isn't a top 5 qb, but he doesn't need to be for a team to push forward with him as the starter. The players love him, the fans love him. I will buy your Minshew stock, which some leagues I can't.

[FantasyFreak]

Drake, Bell, Hopkins, Adams, Beckham, Julio, MT, , Kelce. All top end guy, or being valued as such at or beyond the age apex who are going to lose a year of top end production (if things go wrong) and see a value decline due to age in Dynasty in a significant way soon.

Ingram,Brady, Brees, Gronk. Guys being valued based on this year, basically.

I disagree with kelce. He is going to be with that team for years still. He may not be quite the same athlete in a few years, but he will still be there and still be a reliable target for Mahaomes. There are very few guarantees and consistent tight ends for fantasy. His stability is worth the price.

Right, but he still carries elite value right now. He won't next year, IMO.

[FiremanEd]

Unless you’re going from Kelce to say, Mark Andrews, you’re taking a big dice roll on production. Probably hoping for a straight up exchange too. Outside of that you’re jumping into TE purgatory with everyone else. May not be worth it.

I’ll note that Kittle is excluded because generally speaking, if you’re a Kittle owner, you have no reason to move to Kelce without getting notable compensation on top of Kelce. Even more so now given COVID uncertainty.

I’d expect most Kelce owners have been happily competing with him a big driver of their success due to positional advantage he provides.

[TheNuts]

Drake, Bell, Hopkins, Adams, Beckham, Julio, MT, , Kelce. All top end guy, or being valued as such at or beyond the age apex who are going to lose a year of top end production (if things go wrong) and see a value decline due to age in Dynasty in a significant way soon.

Ingram,Brady, Brees, Gronk. Guys being valued based on this year, basically.

I disagree with kelce. He is going to be with that team for years still. He may not be quite the same athlete in a few years, but he will still be there and still be a reliable target for Mahaomes. There are very few guarantees and consistent tight ends for fantasy. His stability is worth the price.

Right, but he still carries elite value right now. He won't next year, IMO.

I guess if that's the way you want to look at it. I am not moving kelce for anything less than a bundle, and really I'm not moving him at all unless my team was already in a rebuild. Sure we can get more for him now, but I think he is going to be a top tight end for years to come. People will probably under value him if they are really going to noticeably cut his value. If you're looking to trade a guy like kelce because he is worth 10% less than next year, then you're probably looking to trade him just for the sake of trading him, and you could easily end up regretting not just riding it out with him

[FantasyFreak]

I disagree with kelce. He is going to be with that team for years still. He may not be quite the same athlete in a few years, but he will still be there and still be a reliable target for Mahaomes. There are very few guarantees and consistent tight ends for fantasy. His stability is worth the price.

Right, but he still carries elite value right now. He won't next year, IMO.

I guess if that's the way you want to look at it. I am not moving kelce for anything less than a bundle, and really I'm not moving him at all unless my team was already in a rebuild. Sure we can get more for him now, but I think he is going to be a top tight end for years to come. People will probably under value him if they are really going to noticeably cut his value. If you're looking to trade a guy like kelce because he is worth 10% less than next year, then you're probably looking to trade him just for the sake of trading him, and you could easily end up regretting not just riding it out with him

For sure. I just think his value will decline a lot more than ten percent, TBH.

[FiremanEd]

It probably will, but similar to Julio, his production should outlast that value decline. Even more so at TE based on history.

[Johnny Canuck]

Selling guys like Kelce and Julio all depends on a few things:

A) are you a contender?
B) Do you have solid depth/young guns that are legitimate successors to those starting lineup spots?
C) If you have a older team already, are you prepared for a more lengthy rebuild process for a better chance to win now?
D) And prob the most important variable, what are people willing to pay for them?

We all 'know' that these types of guys can likely perform well into their 30s, but we also know that performance and trade value don't follow the same trajectory at advanced NFL ages. I think right now, you can still cash out and get a good chunk, but next yr, that offer you'd be getting this season will likely be cut in half. Return is exponentially dropped with every season that goes by once age 30 has been eclipsed.

Ask anyone that's been trying to sell Larry Fitz for the past bunch of years - guys over 30 just don't fetch a solid return (regardless of production - unless you get lucky and find a sucker, but that's the exception, not the rule). For example, maybe you can get three 1sts for Kelce now, but next offseason at 32 (and zero dead cap/on the last yr of his deal), maybe the best offer is a 1st and a 2nd, yr after that at 33 and potentially a FA, maybe just a 2nd to a contender if you're lucky.

If you have young gun like successor types, or a ton of depth, then I would prob ride them into the sunset and let them retire on your squad. Otherwise, I can see the argument for selling these types of players now for the best price you get, esp if you want to mitigate the risk of a cancelled season.

TLDR: Either sell them for a bundle now, and if not, be prepared to let them die on your squad because after this season they will never be worth more via trade than they are in production to your team.

[Mike from Canada]

How about 2021 draft picks. If there is no NFL season there is probably no college season and then the draft is even more of a crapshoot. Sell 2021 firsts for 2022 firsts?

[esloan35]

Who are guys who have their value bumped UP by the prospect of a lost season (if that does happen)?

Ones I can think of off the top of my head:
QB: Jordan Love, Tua
RB: AJ Dillon, JK Dobbins
WR: Terry McLaurin, DJ Chark (both teams could have Trevor Lawrence as their QB next time they come out)
TE: Irv Smith (Rudolph could be gone), TJ Hockenson (Lions only have one WR under contract for 2021--Quintez Cephus--but likely two after extending Golladay but still lose Jones and Amendola)

I have a tough time believing McLaurin will go up in value with a lost season. I mean, he will be 25 in September, thus 26 going into his Year 2 if the season is lost. He will have one respectable season to his name and be 26. Sure he could have a QB improvement, but I’d rather have had a second year to prove his performance and still have had the very high chance at one of the top two QB prospects. I would expect some added competition in the near future as well (Because it’s hard to have less), but 2020 was his best chance at a monopoly on targets and would have been lost.

I guess I just view McLaurin as at least offset due to age on a lost season. Not many people are jumping to buy 26 year olds with one 65/900 yard season to their name.

Edit: July ADP has McLaurin at WR23, of which I’m referencing as far as going up even further.

Is 26 old? The guy is in the peak if his career, so he may miss one season. I don't think you can predict what being 27 means as a drop off. It's 27, sometimes I think you talk to talk.

[FiremanEd]

All you took from that was ‘26’ eh? Yes, peak of his career with one solid season to his name, valued at WR23. Saying that suddenly being 26 and only having that to his name will not go up in value (from WR23) is not something I think is a strong probability, especially with the WR class we just had (which will be younger and with high draft pedigree) and the class to come in 2021 (which will also be strong and with quality draft pedigree based on projection, regardless if there is a season or not). It absolutely is not ‘talking just to talk’. Learn to comprehend information in full paragraphs, not just a single numbers within. Disagreeing is fine, but don’t be a tool.

[esloan35]

I didn’t mention his age relating to a sell high in a post. In Sept of the 21 season he turns 26 and had a heck of a season with 58-919-7 tds last year, which was his first. Additionally, dealing with mediocre QB play didn’t help his stat line much. If we don’t get a look at the 2021 we class (or limited) it will be hard to asses these guys coming out based on what we saw last year. I don’t agree with you and I think you might be a tool.