Hunt trade - updated (poll)

[Hankybro21]

Team 1.

I posted here last week about a hunt+ for Guice deal. Offers have evolved a bit and this is what I’m looking at:

Trade 1
Give: Guice
Get: Hunt + Cohen + 2021 2 (mid/late)

Trade 2/3
Give: Preston or Anthony miller + 2.05 + 2021 3
Get: Hunt + 2020 3.08

I would love to get Hunt and keep Guice if possible so I am leaning toward trade 2/3. If this goes through I’d prefer to keep Preston and move Miller. This would let me take BPA at 1.06 (top 4 RB, lamb/jeudy) without feeling like I needed to take Akers over lamb/jeudy because of my RB shallowness.

On the other hand, I could get lucky and have one of the top 4 RBs fall to 1.06 and then add WR depth at 2.05 if I took Trade 1.

[StripesOfKC]

Trade 2 for me and give away Preston

Great value IMO

I’d do trade 1 if that falls apart too but trade 2 is better

Don’t know how people convinced themselves that a UDFA WR is a part of the Dolphins future plans with all the draft picks they have but this is your shot to take advantage of it before they pick Jamarr Chase or Waddle to be their WR1 opposite Parker with Gesicki as option 3

[Hankybro21]

Don’t know how people convinced themselves that a UDFA WR is a part of the Dolphins future plans with all the draft picks they have but this is your shot to take advantage of it before they pick Jamarr Chase or Waddle to be their WR1 opposite Parker with Gesicki as option 3

Guilty! Haha. I’m so low on Parker and lukewarm on Anthony miller so it’s prolly just me dreaming on Preston but I have a really hard time moving him

[StripesOfKC]

Don’t know how people convinced themselves that a UDFA WR is a part of the Dolphins future plans with all the draft picks they have but this is your shot to take advantage of it before they pick Jamarr Chase or Waddle to be their WR1 opposite Parker with Gesicki as option 3

Guilty! Haha. I’m so low on Parker and lukewarm on Anthony miller so it’s prolly just me dreaming on Preston but I have a really hard time moving him

I don't hate his talent but as a UDFA he needs to be SIGNIFCANTLY better (not just equal) than 1st round pick Parker (who just signed a 4 year deal) and 2nd round pick Gesicki to prove his place in the future Dolphins offense as anything more than a WR3 (in real life not fantasy)

With how heavily the Dolphins went trenches and defense, one of the Dolphins' 4 picks in the first two rounds next year is definitely adding a WR. I just can't see it any other way

Miller is older, but has more capital and has produced more than Preston and is a clear second option in his offense
More than that he has done is the worst situation in football--something that can only improve in the future (whether it's the Bears getting better and finding a QB or Miller moving teams)

I would hold him

[QB Browns]

Don’t know how people convinced themselves that a UDFA WR is a part of the Dolphins future plans with all the draft picks they have but this is your shot to take advantage of it before they pick Jamarr Chase or Waddle to be their WR1 opposite Parker with Gesicki as option 3

Guilty! Haha. I’m so low on Parker and lukewarm on Anthony miller so it’s prolly just me dreaming on Preston but I have a really hard time moving him

I like Miller but he projects more as a slot receiver and seems to have less upside for fantasy. Preston Williams was undrafted because of a harassment allegation, (pretty sure but might want to fact check me on that - don't know the specifics) not because of talent. He was up there with any receiver in last year's class talent-wise.

I actually lean the Guice option. The dude is clearly talented but he went through all kinds of issues recovering from multiple injuries now and I just think the potential for him to ever become what we'd once hoped is slim to none. I would value Hunt equally with Guice and the 2nd is just gravy.

[StripesOfKC]

Don’t know how people convinced themselves that a UDFA WR is a part of the Dolphins future plans with all the draft picks they have but this is your shot to take advantage of it before they pick Jamarr Chase or Waddle to be their WR1 opposite Parker with Gesicki as option 3

Guilty! Haha. I’m so low on Parker and lukewarm on Anthony miller so it’s prolly just me dreaming on Preston but I have a really hard time moving him

I like Miller but he projects more as a slot receiver and seems to have less upside for fantasy. Preston Williams was undrafted because of a harassment allegation, (pretty sure but might want to fact check me on that - don't know the specifics) not because of talent. He was up there with any receiver in last year's class talent-wise.

Tyreek Hill admitted to choking a pregnant woman--a felony and an egregious one at that. He got drafted. I watched Joe Mixon punch a girl in the face with my own two eyeballs and you can too right now. He went in the 2nd round. Jeffrey Simmons was barred from the combine in the same draft as Preston Williams for pummelling a woman on the ground, also on video. And then he tore his ACL *before* the draft. Simmons went in round 1. Preston Williams received a misdemeanor harassment charge from campus police. Not only did he not get kicked out of school but he didn't even get kicked off the football team. It happened at Colorado State and then he played at Colorado State. No one drafted him with 254 draft picks in 2019.

Maybe he goes in the 6th or 7th round without a charge (where WRs selected also have an awful hit rate), but don't act like he is AJ Brown or DK Metcalf except with off field issues. He ain't even Darius Slayton

He went undrafted because he is slow, has bad hands and isn't very explosive

[Gator Sens]

Trade #2 (with either wr) is where I would go, but I still hold out big hope for Guice.

[FantasyFoosball]

I'd pass on all three myself, with option 3 being the easiest one to pass on. I would not consider that one at all.

[QB Browns]

Guilty! Haha. I’m so low on Parker and lukewarm on Anthony miller so it’s prolly just me dreaming on Preston but I have a really hard time moving him

I like Miller but he projects more as a slot receiver and seems to have less upside for fantasy. Preston Williams was undrafted because of a harassment allegation, (pretty sure but might want to fact check me on that - don't know the specifics) not because of talent. He was up there with any receiver in last year's class talent-wise.

Tyreek Hill admitted to choking a pregnant woman--a felony and an egregious one at that. He got drafted. I watched Joe Mixon punch a girl in the face with my own two eyeballs and you can too right now. He went in the 2nd round. Jeffrey Simmons was barred from the combine in the same draft as Preston Williams for pummelling a woman on the ground, also on video. And then he tore his ACL *before* the draft. Simmons went in round 1. Preston Williams received a misdemeanor harassment charge from campus police. Not only did he not get kicked out of school but he didn't even get kicked off the football team. It happened at Colorado State and then he played at Colorado State. No one drafted him with 254 draft picks in 2019.

Maybe he goes in the 6th or 7th round without a charge (where WRs selected also have an awful hit rate), but don't act like he is AJ Brown or DK Metcalf except with off field issues. He ain't even Darius Slayton

He went undrafted because he is slow, has bad hands and isn't very explosive

Point taken with the other off field examples, but you're sleeping on Williams. You haven't watched him play if you think this dude's got bad hands. I agree he's below Metcalf and Brown, but let's not act like there's a real fantasy gap between what Miller has shown on the field vs. what Williams has. You claim Miller has produced more. Williams had 200 yards less in 8 games than Miller had playing 16 last season. Miller had 85 targets, Williams had 60. I agree that Miller was in about as bad of a situation as he could be, but Williams on last year's Miami team wasn't in an exceptional spot either.

You also argue that he needs to outperform Parker, but he effectively had prior to tearing his ACL last season, and that was coming out of the gate as an undrafted rookie. Williams was playing an equal or greater percent of offensive snaps per game than Parker by week 3. Parker had 28 fewer yards through the first 8 games. Parker had 28 receptions on 52 targets, compared to Williams' 32 receptions on 60 targets. (Lower catch %, but again these are his first 8 games as an undrafted rookie. Also some of the catches he makes are eye-popping.) Williams was at least on par with Parker, if not ahead of him, which is extremely impressive for an undrafted rookie. Sure Parker came on strong after Williams went down, and will certainly project to be Miami's WR1 for 2020, but I'll take my chances of Williams taking work from Parker over the chances of Miller stealing a heavy target share from Allen Robinson.

Don't hear what I'm not saying, I like Anthony Miller and drafted him in multiple leagues. I'd love to see him go off. I just think realistically the opportunity is there for Williams to take on a bigger role and he already answered a lot of the questions people are still asking about him during the first half of last season.

[StripesOfKC]

I like Miller but he projects more as a slot receiver and seems to have less upside for fantasy. Preston Williams was undrafted because of a harassment allegation, (pretty sure but might want to fact check me on that - don't know the specifics) not because of talent. He was up there with any receiver in last year's class talent-wise.

Tyreek Hill admitted to choking a pregnant woman--a felony and an egregious one at that. He got drafted. I watched Joe Mixon punch a girl in the face with my own two eyeballs and you can too right now. He went in the 2nd round. Jeffrey Simmons was barred from the combine in the same draft as Preston Williams for pummelling a woman on the ground, also on video. And then he tore his ACL *before* the draft. Simmons went in round 1. Preston Williams received a misdemeanor harassment charge from campus police. Not only did he not get kicked out of school but he didn't even get kicked off the football team. It happened at Colorado State and then he played at Colorado State. No one drafted him with 254 draft picks in 2019.

Maybe he goes in the 6th or 7th round without a charge (where WRs selected also have an awful hit rate), but don't act like he is AJ Brown or DK Metcalf except with off field issues. He ain't even Darius Slayton

He went undrafted because he is slow, has bad hands and isn't very explosive

Point taken with the other off field examples, but you're sleeping on Williams. You haven't watched him play if you think this dude's got bad hands. I agree he's below Metcalf and Brown, but let's not act like there's a real fantasy gap between what Miller has shown on the field vs. what Williams has. You claim Miller has produced more. Williams had 200 yards less in 8 games than Miller had playing 16 last season. Miller had 85 targets, Williams had 60. I agree that Miller was in about as bad of a situation as he could be, but Williams on last year's Miami team wasn't in an exceptional spot either.

You also argue that he needs to outperform Parker, but he effectively had prior to tearing his ACL last season, and that was coming out of the gate as an undrafted rookie. Williams was playing an equal or greater percent of offensive snaps per game than Parker by week 3. Parker had 28 fewer yards through the first 8 games. Parker had 28 receptions on 52 targets, compared to Williams' 32 receptions on 60 targets. (Lower catch %, but again these are his first 8 games as an undrafted rookie. Also some of the catches he makes are eye-popping.) Williams was at least on par with Parker, if not ahead of him, which is extremely impressive for an undrafted rookie. Sure Parker came on strong after Williams went down, and will certainly project to be Miami's WR1 for 2020, but I'll take my chances of Williams taking work from Parker over the chances of Miller stealing a heavy target share from Allen Robinson.

Don't hear what I'm not saying, I like Anthony Miller and drafted him in multiple leagues. I'd love to see him go off. I just think realistically the opportunity is there for Williams to take on a bigger role and he already answered a lot of the questions people are still asking about him during the first half of last season.

He had an 8.3% drop rate--tied for 12th among qualified WRs, with a 53% catch rate (even his true catch rate--on catchable passes--is 72%--ranks 100 among qualified WRs)

Even coming out one of the biggest knocks on him was drops. Building on that he was peppered with targets on a team and did nothing particularly special with pretty awful efficiency: beyond just catch rate he registered a 7.1 yards per target
--so inefficient garbage time production on a team that now has real RBs instead of Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird (Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing yards) and should be better overall with less garbage time/volume

What makes Miller's situation so bad isn't his team sucking, it's that despite a worse QB than Williams and anemic offense he actually has a good defense that prevents the team from getting blown out and results in neutral game scripts for the Bears to remain run heavy

This is why I am saying his situation can only improve: whether by getting a better QB in Foles or an even better one in 2021 or by the Bears D regressing (which I think is pretty likely) and creating more garbage time situations

Williams truthers often cite the Parker production before Williams' injury as if the rest of the season didn't happen, and Parker (with 1st round capital) didn't finish as a top 10 WR, absolutely fry the best corner in football and the GOAT coach in their own house when they desperately needed a win and get rewarded with an extension.

But forget that for a second as Miller is also behind a WR1 on his team, and remember that Preston is not even the 2nd option on his passing offense with the scorching finish to 2019, elite athletic profile and 2nd round capital Mike Gesicki had/has. In Miller's case he is the clear number 2, especially with Taylor Gabriel gone and the Bears TE position being washed Jimmy Graham and a rookie TE

Throw in the Dolphins 4 picks in next year's first 2 rounds, and Williams has a ceiling of being a low WR3 for a year before fading into obscurity behind Parker, one of Chase/Moore/Waddle/etc and Gesicki

Miller is the more explosive player, better route runner, has produced more when healthy (has dealt with a lot of shoulder injuries that kept his snap counts low in the first half of last year), has premium draft capital and a lock on the number 2 role

I really don't know what a UDFA did to get so much hype

[QB Browns]

Tyreek Hill admitted to choking a pregnant woman--a felony and an egregious one at that. He got drafted. I watched Joe Mixon punch a girl in the face with my own two eyeballs and you can too right now. He went in the 2nd round. Jeffrey Simmons was barred from the combine in the same draft as Preston Williams for pummelling a woman on the ground, also on video. And then he tore his ACL *before* the draft. Simmons went in round 1. Preston Williams received a misdemeanor harassment charge from campus police. Not only did he not get kicked out of school but he didn't even get kicked off the football team. It happened at Colorado State and then he played at Colorado State. No one drafted him with 254 draft picks in 2019.

Maybe he goes in the 6th or 7th round without a charge (where WRs selected also have an awful hit rate), but don't act like he is AJ Brown or DK Metcalf except with off field issues. He ain't even Darius Slayton

He went undrafted because he is slow, has bad hands and isn't very explosive

Point taken with the other off field examples, but you're sleeping on Williams. You haven't watched him play if you think this dude's got bad hands. I agree he's below Metcalf and Brown, but let's not act like there's a real fantasy gap between what Miller has shown on the field vs. what Williams has. You claim Miller has produced more. Williams had 200 yards less in 8 games than Miller had playing 16 last season. Miller had 85 targets, Williams had 60. I agree that Miller was in about as bad of a situation as he could be, but Williams on last year's Miami team wasn't in an exceptional spot either.

You also argue that he needs to outperform Parker, but he effectively had prior to tearing his ACL last season, and that was coming out of the gate as an undrafted rookie. Williams was playing an equal or greater percent of offensive snaps per game than Parker by week 3. Parker had 28 fewer yards through the first 8 games. Parker had 28 receptions on 52 targets, compared to Williams' 32 receptions on 60 targets. (Lower catch %, but again these are his first 8 games as an undrafted rookie. Also some of the catches he makes are eye-popping.) Williams was at least on par with Parker, if not ahead of him, which is extremely impressive for an undrafted rookie. Sure Parker came on strong after Williams went down, and will certainly project to be Miami's WR1 for 2020, but I'll take my chances of Williams taking work from Parker over the chances of Miller stealing a heavy target share from Allen Robinson.

Don't hear what I'm not saying, I like Anthony Miller and drafted him in multiple leagues. I'd love to see him go off. I just think realistically the opportunity is there for Williams to take on a bigger role and he already answered a lot of the questions people are still asking about him during the first half of last season.

He had an 8.3% drop rate--tied for 12th among qualified WRs, with a 53% catch rate (even his true catch rate--on catchable passes--is 72%--ranks 100 among qualified WRs)

Even coming out one of the biggest knocks on him was drops. Building on that he was peppered with targets on a team and did nothing particularly special with pretty awful efficiency: beyond just catch rate he registered a 7.1 yards per target
--so inefficient garbage time production on a team that now has real RBs instead of Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird (Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing yards) and should be better overall with less garbage time/volume

What makes Miller's situation so bad isn't his team sucking, it's that despite a worse QB than Williams and anemic offense he actually has a good defense that prevents the team from getting blown out and results in neutral game scripts for the Bears to remain run heavy

This is why I am saying his situation can only improve: whether by getting a better QB in Foles or an even better one in 2021 or by the Bears D regressing (which I think is pretty likely) and creating more garbage time situations

Williams truthers often cite the Parker production before Williams' injury as if the rest of the season didn't happen, and Parker (with 1st round capital) didn't finish as a top 10 WR, absolutely fry the best corner in football and the GOAT coach in their own house when they desperately needed a win and get rewarded with an extension.

But forget that for a second as Miller is also behind a WR1 on his team, and remember that Preston is not even the 2nd option on his passing offense with the scorching finish to 2019, elite athletic profile and 2nd round capital Mike Gesicki had/has. In Miller's case he is the clear number 2, especially with Taylor Gabriel gone and the Bears TE position being washed Jimmy Graham and a rookie TE

Throw in the Dolphins 4 picks in next year's first 2 rounds, and Williams has a ceiling of being a low WR3 for a year before fading into obscurity behind Parker, one of Chase/Moore/Waddle/etc and Gesicki

Miller is the more explosive player, better route runner, has produced more when healthy (has dealt with a lot of shoulder injuries that kept his snap counts low in the first half of last year), has premium draft capital and a lock on the number 2 role

I really don't know what a UDFA did to get so much hype

The reason he's getting hype is because he was the number one target on his team as a UDFA. He had more targets and played more snaps than Parker and Gesicki when he was healthy. You're trying to draw conclusions of Williams talent by ignoring what he and the team did while he was on the field while jumping on what they did after he was out. Of course it was a short stretch of time, but how can you say that he's the number 3 target behind Gesicki? When Williams was healthy Gesicki had a total of 31 targets. I get that that's a small sample size, but so was the amount of time that Gesicki was hot at the end of the season. You're again drawing conclusions about how the team adapted once Williams was no longer an option, but it's inarguable that Williams was the primary target in the passing game when he was healthy. The statistics clearly show it.

Parker had a great season down the stretch, and I certainly wouldn't take that away from him or act as though that won't impact how the Dolphins view him moving forward, but it's naive to keep citing his 1st round draft capital as a reason why the Dolphins will remain committed to him. Other first round receivers in his class include Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Nelson Agholor, and Kevin White. At this point, nobody is clinging to the first round draft status of those players. People had all but given up on Parker coming into this year, and to his credit he finally came through. I really think after his strong showing at the end of last season that he and Williams will be in a 1a/1b type of situation, whereas based on only the first 8 games last year I'd have guessed that Williams would be the clear number one.

How can you claim that Miller produced more when healthy? I know he's dealt with shoulder injuries each of the last two seasons, but his production was clearly less than that of Williams. Miller's biggest improvement came when his snap % and target share shot up at the end of the year where he had two really good performances, but again he had fewer touchdowns in 16 games than Williams had in 8, and he only finished with 200 yards more than Williams on the season.

I get the excitement about Miller and definitely think he has potential, but the evidence you're trying to use to support your argument is grounded in narratives and conjecture rather than facts. The hard facts you've included are:
1) the draft capital of the players (which DOES matter, but more so for earning opportunities to play, not production once you're already on the field)
2) Williams' drop rate. A fair criticism but there have been plenty of productive NFL receivers who struggled with drops at one point or another - it's correctable and low hanging fruit for criticism. In 2019 Deebo Samuel had a drop rate of 11.1%, Julian Edelman had a drop rate of 8.49%.
3) Williams' 7.1 yds/target. Miller's yds/target were 7.7, but his yds/reception were 12.62 vs Williams' 13.38 which speaks to the depth of routes they were running and how they were utilized in their respective offenses. I'll certainly concede that DeVante Parker outperformed Williams in these categories (16.7 yds/rec, 9.4 yds/TGT) and he may have done enough to lock himself in as Miami's WR1 this season, but the fact of the matter is that when both players were on the field, Parker was the second option. (You also try to claim that his production came in garbage time, but again that isn't true. One example: His two TDs against the Jets both came in the first half and were Miami's first two scores of the game after falling down 0-7.)

The stats you're throwing out aren't reasons to give up on Williams (or even be concerned IMO) and then you continue to fall back on the possibility of them drafting a top receiver next year or that the Dolphins no longer view Williams as a top target in their offense despite him being THE top target during the half season he played after joining the team as a UDFA. If you want to value Miller over him I think that's perfectly fine. My argument isn't that Williams is absolutely the best option moving forward, become a fantasy WR1, or even absolutely be the WR1 on his team. My argument is that to act as though Miller is a guaranteed head and shoulders better pick compared to Williams (this year or projecting years forward) makes no sense based on anything we've seen on the field or looking at data.

[QB Browns]

Btw @HankyBro21, sorry I'm sure you weren't looking for all this

[StripesOfKC]

Point taken with the other off field examples, but you're sleeping on Williams. You haven't watched him play if you think this dude's got bad hands. I agree he's below Metcalf and Brown, but let's not act like there's a real fantasy gap between what Miller has shown on the field vs. what Williams has. You claim Miller has produced more. Williams had 200 yards less in 8 games than Miller had playing 16 last season. Miller had 85 targets, Williams had 60. I agree that Miller was in about as bad of a situation as he could be, but Williams on last year's Miami team wasn't in an exceptional spot either.

You also argue that he needs to outperform Parker, but he effectively had prior to tearing his ACL last season, and that was coming out of the gate as an undrafted rookie. Williams was playing an equal or greater percent of offensive snaps per game than Parker by week 3. Parker had 28 fewer yards through the first 8 games. Parker had 28 receptions on 52 targets, compared to Williams' 32 receptions on 60 targets. (Lower catch %, but again these are his first 8 games as an undrafted rookie. Also some of the catches he makes are eye-popping.) Williams was at least on par with Parker, if not ahead of him, which is extremely impressive for an undrafted rookie. Sure Parker came on strong after Williams went down, and will certainly project to be Miami's WR1 for 2020, but I'll take my chances of Williams taking work from Parker over the chances of Miller stealing a heavy target share from Allen Robinson.

Don't hear what I'm not saying, I like Anthony Miller and drafted him in multiple leagues. I'd love to see him go off. I just think realistically the opportunity is there for Williams to take on a bigger role and he already answered a lot of the questions people are still asking about him during the first half of last season.

He had an 8.3% drop rate--tied for 12th among qualified WRs, with a 53% catch rate (even his true catch rate--on catchable passes--is 72%--ranks 100 among qualified WRs)

Even coming out one of the biggest knocks on him was drops. Building on that he was peppered with targets on a team and did nothing particularly special with pretty awful efficiency: beyond just catch rate he registered a 7.1 yards per target
--so inefficient garbage time production on a team that now has real RBs instead of Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird (Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing yards) and should be better overall with less garbage time/volume

What makes Miller's situation so bad isn't his team sucking, it's that despite a worse QB than Williams and anemic offense he actually has a good defense that prevents the team from getting blown out and results in neutral game scripts for the Bears to remain run heavy

This is why I am saying his situation can only improve: whether by getting a better QB in Foles or an even better one in 2021 or by the Bears D regressing (which I think is pretty likely) and creating more garbage time situations

Williams truthers often cite the Parker production before Williams' injury as if the rest of the season didn't happen, and Parker (with 1st round capital) didn't finish as a top 10 WR, absolutely fry the best corner in football and the GOAT coach in their own house when they desperately needed a win and get rewarded with an extension.

But forget that for a second as Miller is also behind a WR1 on his team, and remember that Preston is not even the 2nd option on his passing offense with the scorching finish to 2019, elite athletic profile and 2nd round capital Mike Gesicki had/has. In Miller's case he is the clear number 2, especially with Taylor Gabriel gone and the Bears TE position being washed Jimmy Graham and a rookie TE

Throw in the Dolphins 4 picks in next year's first 2 rounds, and Williams has a ceiling of being a low WR3 for a year before fading into obscurity behind Parker, one of Chase/Moore/Waddle/etc and Gesicki

Miller is the more explosive player, better route runner, has produced more when healthy (has dealt with a lot of shoulder injuries that kept his snap counts low in the first half of last year), has premium draft capital and a lock on the number 2 role

I really don't know what a UDFA did to get so much hype

The reason he's getting hype is because he was the number one target on his team as a UDFA. He had more targets and played more snaps than Parker and Gesicki when he was healthy. You're trying to draw conclusions of Williams talent by ignoring what he and the team did while he was on the field while jumping on what they did after he was out. Of course it was a short stretch of time, but how can you say that he's the number 3 target behind Gesicki? When Williams was healthy Gesicki had a total of 31 targets. I get that that's a small sample size, but so was the amount of time that Gesicki was hot at the end of the season. You're again drawing conclusions about how the team adapted once Williams was no longer an option, but it's inarguable that Williams was the primary target in the passing game when he was healthy. The statistics clearly show it.

Parker had a great season down the stretch, and I certainly wouldn't take that away from him or act as though that won't impact how the Dolphins view him moving forward, but it's naive to keep citing his 1st round draft capital as a reason why the Dolphins will remain committed to him. Other first round receivers in his class include Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Nelson Agholor, and Kevin White. At this point, nobody is clinging to the first round draft status of those players. People had all but given up on Parker coming into this year, and to his credit he finally came through. I really think after his strong showing at the end of last season that he and Williams will be in a 1a/1b type of situation, whereas based on only the first 8 games last year I'd have guessed that Williams would be the clear number one.

How can you claim that Miller produced more when healthy? I know he's dealt with shoulder injuries each of the last two seasons, but his production was clearly less than that of Williams. Miller's biggest improvement came when his snap % and target share shot up at the end of the year where he had two really good performances, but again he had fewer touchdowns in 16 games than Williams had in 8, and he only finished with 200 yards more than Williams on the season.

I get the excitement about Miller and definitely think he has potential, but the evidence you're trying to use to support your argument is grounded in narratives and conjecture rather than facts. The hard facts you've included are:
1) the draft capital of the players (which DOES matter, but more so for earning opportunities to play, not production once you're already on the field)
2) Williams' drop rate. A fair criticism but there have been plenty of productive NFL receivers who struggled with drops at one point or another - it's correctable and low hanging fruit for criticism. In 2019 Deebo Samuel had a drop rate of 11.1%, Julian Edelman had a drop rate of 8.49%.
3) Williams' 7.1 yds/target. Miller's yds/target were 7.7, but his yds/reception were 12.62 vs Williams' 13.38 which speaks to the depth of routes they were running and how they were utilized in their respective offenses. I'll certainly concede that DeVante Parker outperformed Williams in these categories (16.7 yds/rec, 9.4 yds/TGT) and he may have done enough to lock himself in as Miami's WR1 this season, but the fact of the matter is that when both players were on the field, Parker was the second option. (You also try to claim that his production came in garbage time, but again that isn't true. One example: His two TDs against the Jets both came in the first half and were Miami's first two scores of the game after falling down 0-7.)

The stats you're throwing out aren't reasons to give up on Williams (or even be concerned IMO) and then you continue to fall back on the possibility of them drafting a top receiver next year or that the Dolphins no longer view Williams as a top target in their offense despite him being THE top target during the half season he played after joining the team as a UDFA. If you want to value Miller over him I think that's perfectly fine. My argument isn't that Williams is absolutely the best option moving forward, become a fantasy WR1, or even absolutely be the WR1 on his team. My argument is that to act as though Miller is a guaranteed head and shoulders better pick compared to Williams (this year or projecting years forward) makes no sense based on anything we've seen on the field or looking at data.

He was the "number 1" for half of a throw away season on a team designed to tank. Not impressed. Gesicki's small sample was more impressive than Preston's small sample when considering game script, efficiency and the fact that all his games were started by Fitz not Rosen and thus more representative of what the Dolphins offense will look like next year. Beyond that--as much as this truth will pain Preston owners: Gesicki is simply a far superior player. He runs better routes, has better hands, is faster despite being over 32 pounds heavier and can leap over a soda can--all while having capital that actually indicates a spot in the Dolphins' future

I can cite how invested the team is in him (and the 1st round capital) because unlike the others you listed he is still on the team that drafted him (and still in the league) and just got a 4 year extension. 1a/1b with Williams LMAO. Maybe Williams can fight with the next day 3/UDFA WR they take to be the 3a behind Parker and future early 2021 rookie WR and Gesicki.

Except Williams hasn't outproduced healthy Miller in anything but TDs (only last year) which are fluky to begin with. Case in point: Miller had 7 of those his rookie year. Miller has been more efficient for the catchable targets he is getting by any metric of use (catch rate, true catch rate, yards per target, YAC) with the exception of yards per reception which is variable to catch rate (ie. if you drop a 2 yard pass like Williams did constantly it keeps your YPR high) and to scheme--something that is inherently volatile in the NFL especially when both will likely get new QBs next season
Not even that excited about Miller considering his age: I'd deal him for any 2nd. But even then he is so far above Williams (who I'd deal for most 3rds). A better route runner, the better prospect, the better player in college, the better player through two years in the NFL, the better athlete and the guy who was actually worthy of being selected in 255 (within the top 60) picks by 32 NFL teams

1. Draft capital is the single most important predictor of success--more so than breakout age, dominator, YPR, athletic testing, etc--it is nearly impossible to overstate its impact. UDFA guys like Keelan Cole and Allen Hurns are better players than and were more productive than Williams yet still had their replacements drafted in Chark and Dede.
2. Those guys can afford it. Deebo's 2nd round capital gives him leash to work through drop issues, as do Edelman's Super Bowl MVP and 3 1000 yard seasons. Williams cannot.
3. Addressed YPR earlier. It can be altered by drops and is most dependent on scheme/utilization. Both will have different QBs tossing them the ball net year and have new offensive personnel on their coaching staffs.

Wow so Williams was the top target on a team in a total rebuild for half of a throwaway season .
And now you are saying the Dolphins view him as a future WR1?

You know the Dolphins are in a rebuild right? What they were last year is not remotely the team they intend to be:
Just like Williams is not their future WR1 or 2, Josh Rosen is not their QB of the future. Fitzpatrick--even if he starts all season this year (a real possibility IMO)--is not their QB of the future either, just like Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird are not their RBs of the future

I thought this was given and I'm shocked that I have to explain it.

I am struggling to find a single mock that DOESN'T have the Dolphins going WR with one of their 4 round 1/round 2 picks; but if you want to take that bet or argue that an unathletic UDFA with drop problems and half a season of volume based inefficient production in a near tanking year is going to beat out JaMarr Chase or Jaylen Waddle with 1st round capital, go ahead. I normally don't put much stock into mocks this far out but when they are unanimous and it is likely CFB will not be played (and possible the NFL won't either) and one team needs is universal regardless of website, I consider it near certain that the Dolphins are going to choose a WR in the first two rounds next season--if they don't spend on a Godwin or ARob in free agency

I feel a bit bad too. In an earlier thread here a poster was leaning towards keeping Williams over actually good players with draft capital and proven production (not an inefficient drop-laden 8 games in a throwaway season) like Michael Gallup and Tyler Boyd, and the other commenters were agreeing. It genuinely stunned me and made me realize just how many people are going to have their hearts broken by the reality of what happens to a UDFA WR

Miller is not those guys, but is a ridiculously easy pick here even if you don't believe in his talent/situation (and I am not sold on it myself)

[Hankybro21]

Btw @HankyBro21, sorry I'm sure you weren't looking for all this

It's all good! I appreciate the back and forth and the takes, seriously. Good insight from you both.

FWIW, I took trade 1, and then flipped Hunt + Chubb + a 1st for Barkley...so...

[StripesOfKC]

Btw @HankyBro21, sorry I'm sure you weren't looking for all this

It's all good! I appreciate the back and forth and the takes, seriously. Good insight from you both.

FWIW, I took trade 1, and then flipped Hunt + Chubb + a 1st for Barkley...so...

So you're the real winner here