Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
honcho55
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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby honcho55 » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:11 pm

moishetreats wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:54 am
How about KISS -- keep it simple, stupid?

I'm simply keeping the 2021 draft order the same as the 2021 draft order.
I’m assuming keeping 2020 draft order for next year?

I don’t hate it but I’m playing devils advocate a little here. This scenario means my sig league would get 1.14, which I was hoping for, and ultimately seems fair. And I don’t own my own 1st anyhow so, wouldn’t even affect me haha.

However I could see a team that just won 2019 by a little luck (won another league with a 7-6 regular season), that’s also aging? On the flip side, it’s also easy to envision a 2019 last place team that’s in a really great position.
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. *adding SF 2021

QB: Wilson, Watson, Herbert
RB: S Barkley, J Taylor, JK Dobbins, T Coleman, G Bernard, R Anderson
WR: J Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, A Cooper, C Kirk, A Miller, K Coutee, S Sims
TE. T Kelce, I Thomas, M Gesicki, W Dissly

Futures
2021: 1, 2, 2
2022: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3
2023: 1, 1, 3, 4, 5

abloom
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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby abloom » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:16 pm

Random thought: assuming no season and picks are lotteried or something, would you consider a snake draft opposed to a worst to first?
Dynasty Team #1: 6-4 (7th place)
2019 2nd Place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Wentz,Tannehill, Bridgewater
R: CMC,Taylor,Robinson,Fournette,Peterson
W: Evans,Edelman,Cobb,Davis,Mooney,Lazard(IR),Cole
T: Goedert(IR),Henry,Bryant,Dissly
D: NE,BAL
K: Bullock

2021 Picks: 1,2,4,5,6,7
---
Dynasty Team #2: 10-0 (1st place-Clinched Playoffs)
2019 3rd place
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: Wilson, Murray, Cousins, Trubisky
R: Cook, Dobbins, Swift, Monty, Michel(IR), Mattison
W: Nuk, Godwin, Metcalf, K Allen, Edwards, AB, Sutton(IR)
T: Kelce, Everett
K: Tucker
D: PIT

2021 picks: 1,1,4,4,5,6,7
---
DLF advice forum league: 2-8 (12th place)
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes ,Tua, Mullens, Love, Flacco, Hoyer, Rypien, Bethard
R: Michel, Moss, Hyde, Bernard, Richard, Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, C Thompson
W: Juju, Cooper, Allen, Sanders, D Moore
T: Schultz, Doyle, Asiasi, Thomas

2021 Picks: 1,1,1,2,3,4

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moishetreats
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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby moishetreats » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:40 pm

honcho55 wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:11 pm
moishetreats wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:54 am
How about KISS -- keep it simple, stupid?

I'm simply keeping the 2021 draft order the same as the 2021 draft order.
I’m assuming keeping 2020 draft order for next year?

I don’t hate it but I’m playing devils advocate a little here. This scenario means my sig league would get 1.14, which I was hoping for, and ultimately seems fair. And I don’t own my own 1st anyhow so, wouldn’t even affect me haha.

However I could see a team that just won 2019 by a little luck (won another league with a 7-6 regular season), that’s also aging? On the flip side, it’s also easy to envision a 2019 last place team that’s in a really great position.
Oops. Yup. Corrected. Thank you!

All your possibilities are certainly possible, and so are countless others. Rather than trying to create a system that can best replicate it and/or simulate the randomness, I'm just KISSing. Your devil's advocacy points are well-taken, though. I just don't want to go through want to have to deal with all them! :)
www.fantasyfootballforever.com - SF/2QB website

10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Wilson, Wentz, Rodgers, Love
RB: Mixon, Gurley, Montgomery, Dillon, Moss, Armstead
WR: Hill, Cooper, Lockett, Hilton, Anderson, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Sims, Ward, Renfrow
TE: Kelce, Goedert, Jarwin, Sternberger, K Smith, Arnold, L Thomas

2021: 2ndx3, 3rdx2, 4thx2, 5th
2022: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Stafford ($36 through 2022), Brady (43), Rodgers (28/21), Garappolo (5/20), Winston (3/24), K Allen (1/20) [Morgan (1/24), Luton (1/24), Gordon (1/24)]
RB: Mixon (29/23), Gurley (5/20), Dillon (12/24), Z Moss (10/24), Hines (1/20), Snell (1/20) [Perine (2/22)]
WR: Adams (31/22), Cooper (28/20), Kupp (3/21), AJ Brown (7/23), R Anderson (3/21), Ward (1/20)
TE: Kelce (28/21), Ertz (22/21), Goedert (8/22)
Total+dead cap hits $286

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby Ray Finkle » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:45 pm

honcho55 wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:10 pm
On the flip side, it’s also easy to envision a 2019 last place team that’s in a really great position.
No doubt.

Hell, the two teams that earned the 1.02 and 1.03 in my league combine to currently roster Mahomes, CMC, Chubb, Ekeler, MT, Amari and Kittle. Other talent too, that’s just the real studs. I’d bet they will both be playoff teams in 2020 if the season happens.

If there is a “fair” method of doing this that everyone will be happy with, I sure haven’t heard it. Weighted lottery or tiered lottery like FF laid out is better in my opinion as opposed to ordering teams according to my projections, my league mates rankings, adp or whatever EA Sports projects as others have suggested.

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby FiremanEd » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm

I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby abloom » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm

FiremanEd wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm
I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.
I see a new forum section just for this lol.
Dynasty Team #1: 6-4 (7th place)
2019 2nd Place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Wentz,Tannehill, Bridgewater
R: CMC,Taylor,Robinson,Fournette,Peterson
W: Evans,Edelman,Cobb,Davis,Mooney,Lazard(IR),Cole
T: Goedert(IR),Henry,Bryant,Dissly
D: NE,BAL
K: Bullock

2021 Picks: 1,2,4,5,6,7
---
Dynasty Team #2: 10-0 (1st place-Clinched Playoffs)
2019 3rd place
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: Wilson, Murray, Cousins, Trubisky
R: Cook, Dobbins, Swift, Monty, Michel(IR), Mattison
W: Nuk, Godwin, Metcalf, K Allen, Edwards, AB, Sutton(IR)
T: Kelce, Everett
K: Tucker
D: PIT

2021 picks: 1,1,4,4,5,6,7
---
DLF advice forum league: 2-8 (12th place)
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes ,Tua, Mullens, Love, Flacco, Hoyer, Rypien, Bethard
R: Michel, Moss, Hyde, Bernard, Richard, Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, C Thompson
W: Juju, Cooper, Allen, Sanders, D Moore
T: Schultz, Doyle, Asiasi, Thomas

2021 Picks: 1,1,1,2,3,4

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby FiremanEd » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:33 pm

abloom wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm
FiremanEd wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm
I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.
I see a new forum section just for this lol.
That could be even more ideal than paying...get 4-5 people each willing to review 3-4 other leagues, and each person gets a sample size to base a ranking on. Truth be told, I'd probably be willing for that, assuming I trusted the people's opinions.

abloom
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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby abloom » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:51 pm

FiremanEd wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:33 pm
abloom wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm
FiremanEd wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm
I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.
I see a new forum section just for this lol.
That could be even more ideal than paying...get 4-5 people each willing to review 3-4 other leagues, and each person gets a sample size to base a ranking on. Truth be told, I'd probably be willing for that, assuming I trusted the people's opinions.
If there are specific forum members you could always message them to see if they are willing.
Dynasty Team #1: 6-4 (7th place)
2019 2nd Place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Wentz,Tannehill, Bridgewater
R: CMC,Taylor,Robinson,Fournette,Peterson
W: Evans,Edelman,Cobb,Davis,Mooney,Lazard(IR),Cole
T: Goedert(IR),Henry,Bryant,Dissly
D: NE,BAL
K: Bullock

2021 Picks: 1,2,4,5,6,7
---
Dynasty Team #2: 10-0 (1st place-Clinched Playoffs)
2019 3rd place
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: Wilson, Murray, Cousins, Trubisky
R: Cook, Dobbins, Swift, Monty, Michel(IR), Mattison
W: Nuk, Godwin, Metcalf, K Allen, Edwards, AB, Sutton(IR)
T: Kelce, Everett
K: Tucker
D: PIT

2021 picks: 1,1,4,4,5,6,7
---
DLF advice forum league: 2-8 (12th place)
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes ,Tua, Mullens, Love, Flacco, Hoyer, Rypien, Bethard
R: Michel, Moss, Hyde, Bernard, Richard, Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, C Thompson
W: Juju, Cooper, Allen, Sanders, D Moore
T: Schultz, Doyle, Asiasi, Thomas

2021 Picks: 1,1,1,2,3,4

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby Oddball456 » Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:57 am

abloom wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:27 pm
FiremanEd wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:21 pm
I may just ask a few favors or spot a few people outside the league I Commish some dollars and have them do the power rankings. Take the average of those and call it a day. No names attached to teams, just rosters, starting requirements, and scoring. A best efforts ask based on their perception of the teams. It may have some less than desirable ‘best dynasty team’ rather than ‘best 2020 team’ considerations, but every method is a crapshoot. The league can eat the $20 cost as part of doing business.
I see a new forum section just for this lol.
There is a pod cast "The Dynasty Dude" and he does this service. He looks at the league and gives rankings, trade opportunities, etc. No idea what he charges.

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby IR1 » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:41 pm

abloom wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:16 pm
Random thought: assuming no season and picks are lotteried or something, would you consider a snake draft opposed to a worst to first?
that's what my league is considering, order will stay the same as this year but snaking the 2nd and 4th rounds(5 total)
10Team PPR-QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/PK/flex-DT/DE/DE/LB/LB/LB/CB/CB/S/S/flex
QB- Wilson, Herbert
RB-Kamara, Mixon, Dobbins, Akers, DHarris, Bernard
WR-Adams, Evans, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Harry, Meyers
TE- Kelce, Fant, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, KClark
DE- JBosa, Watts, Barnett, Gross-Matos, Chaisson
LB- D Jones, Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner , Simmons
CB- Moore, Hill, Bradberry
S- Clark, HSmith, Johnson
IR Hunter, Barkley
2021- 1st x 1, 2nd x3

12 team SF QB/RB/WR/TE/ 3flex/1SF
QB- Wentz, Cousins, Lock, Bridgewater, Minshew, Hurts
RB- Dobbins, Guice, KJohnson, Michel, Sanders, Dillon, Hill
WR- Allen, Lockett, AJ Brown, JJAW, Meyers, DJax, AMiller, Mims, Sheppard, MJones, Kirk, KCole
TE- Ertz, Fant, Hurst, Dwelley

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby TheNuts » Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:19 pm

Can the OP please edit the title? It's driving me nuts
12 team ppr 4 point pass td

Murray, Minshew
Singletary, Lindsay, Samuels, Ty Johnson
Chark, Arob, Woods, Diontae, Nkeal, Lazard, Conley, Cole, Dorsett
Higbee, Jarwin, Dissly
Gould, Patriots

14 team ppr superflex, .2 ppc, WR 25% ppr bonus, TE ppr bonus 75%

Mayfield, Minshew, Trubisky, Foles, Hill
Djohns, Singletary, Fournette, Harris, Armstead, Ogunbawale, Samuels
Julio, Arob, Woods, Sims Jr, Claypool, Duvernay, Isabella, Conley, Tyrell
Waller, Hurst, Jarwin, Boyle

12 team ppr 4 point pass td, superflex, 1.5 TE ppr

Goff, Minshew, Hill, Alllen, Walker
Chubb, Taylor, Henry, Singletary, David Johnson, Damien Harris, Hyde, Boone, Blasingame
Tyreek, Boyd, Diontae, Marvin Jones, Pittman, Nkeal, Duvernay, Sims Jr, Stills
Waller, Higbee, Arnold, Olsen, Parkinson, Sample

20 team ppr 6 point pass td, .05 point per return yard

Matt Ryan
Fournette, Singletary, Harris, Cohen, Duke Johnson, Trey Edmunds
Davante Adams, Tyreek, Sutton, Boyd, Dorsett, Tyrell
Kittle, Jarwin, Oliver

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mild
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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby mild » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:18 pm

Had this discussion with my league mates yesterday. Snake draft was proposed. Keeping the picks the same as 2020 was proposed. But ultimately the best solution we all liked was:

- Weighted draft lottery with 2020 draft order
- 1.01 gets 10 tickets, 1.02 gets 9 tickets, etc...
- When drawing, don't take any drawn teams tickets out, just keep drawing until you get the results - you want to keep probabilities the same

Keeps it fun and best represents the randomness of 2020, whilst also keeping the worst teams sated and giving the top teams "a chance" for craziness.

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby trc » Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:29 am

mild wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:18 pm
- When drawing, don't take any drawn teams tickets out, just keep drawing until you get the results - you want to keep probabilities the same
It doesn't matter if you take them out or leave them in. The relative likelihood is all the same, as there is only x valid tickets in the bowl.
For example, if the team with the 10 tickets gets drawn the first draw - there are 9 non-valid tickets in the bowl.

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby mild » Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:00 am

trc wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:29 am
It doesn't matter if you take them out or leave them in. The relative likelihood is all the same, as there is only x valid tickets in the bowl.
For example, if the team with the 10 tickets gets drawn the first draw - there are 9 non-valid tickets in the bowl.
So it's 55 tickets total in a 10 + 9 + 8 + 7... setup.

Does the league winner with 1 ticket have a better shot of drawing that ticket in a bowl of 54 tickets, or in a bowl of 45 tickets?

A draw for a non-valid ticket is a push, and triggers a re-draw - but it still puts the 1-in-54 ticket in a less probabilistic situation, and gives the other more probable tickets a 2nd chance at hitting their probabilities.

You're welcome 8-) ps. don't gamble!

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Re: Rookie Draft is season is cancelled

Postby abloom » Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:52 am

mild wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:00 am
trc wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:29 am
It doesn't matter if you take them out or leave them in. The relative likelihood is all the same, as there is only x valid tickets in the bowl.
For example, if the team with the 10 tickets gets drawn the first draw - there are 9 non-valid tickets in the bowl.
So it's 55 tickets total in a 10 + 9 + 8 + 7... setup.

Does the league winner with 1 ticket have a better shot of drawing that ticket in a bowl of 54 tickets, or in a bowl of 45 tickets?

A draw for a non-valid ticket is a push, and triggers a re-draw - but it still puts the 1-in-54 ticket in a less probabilistic situation, and gives the other more probable tickets a 2nd chance at hitting their probabilities.

You're welcome 8-) ps. don't gamble!
:wtf:
... wait are you saying that if there are 54 tickets (9 invalid triggering redraws, 44 tickets that would not win for the league winner, and 1 ticket that would be a win for the league winner) that it is different than 45 tickets (1 ticket that would be a win for the league winner)?

Because if so...
There is one way to win in the second option with a 1/45 chance (thats simple and can be agreed upon right?)

There are 10 ways of winning with the first option.
(1) 1/54
(2) 9/54 x 1/53
(3) 9/54 x 8/53 x 1/52
(4) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 1/51
(5) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 1/50
(6) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 1/49
(7) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 4/49 x 1/48
(8) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 4/49 x 3/48 x 1/47
(9) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 4/49 x 3/48 x 2/47 x 1/46
(10) 9/54 x 8/53 x 7/52 x 6/51 x 5/50 x 4/49 x 3/48 x 2/47 x 1/46 x 1/45

The sum of all these ways of winning = 1/45

So if you remove the invalid tickets you have a 1/45 chance, and if you don't remove it you have a 1/45 chance

I feel like I'm doing way to many math classes in this forum....
Last edited by abloom on Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Dynasty Team #1: 6-4 (7th place)
2019 2nd Place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Wentz,Tannehill, Bridgewater
R: CMC,Taylor,Robinson,Fournette,Peterson
W: Evans,Edelman,Cobb,Davis,Mooney,Lazard(IR),Cole
T: Goedert(IR),Henry,Bryant,Dissly
D: NE,BAL
K: Bullock

2021 Picks: 1,2,4,5,6,7
---
Dynasty Team #2: 10-0 (1st place-Clinched Playoffs)
2019 3rd place
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: Wilson, Murray, Cousins, Trubisky
R: Cook, Dobbins, Swift, Monty, Michel(IR), Mattison
W: Nuk, Godwin, Metcalf, K Allen, Edwards, AB, Sutton(IR)
T: Kelce, Everett
K: Tucker
D: PIT

2021 picks: 1,1,4,4,5,6,7
---
DLF advice forum league: 2-8 (12th place)
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes ,Tua, Mullens, Love, Flacco, Hoyer, Rypien, Bethard
R: Michel, Moss, Hyde, Bernard, Richard, Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, C Thompson
W: Juju, Cooper, Allen, Sanders, D Moore
T: Schultz, Doyle, Asiasi, Thomas

2021 Picks: 1,1,1,2,3,4


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