Patrick Mahomes: The Best QB in the NFL & for Dynasty

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murphysxm
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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby murphysxm » Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:27 am

my only negative takeaway from a Chiefs perspective is how are they going to meet Chris Jone's demands now?
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:34 am

murphysxm wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:27 am my only negative takeaway from a Chiefs perspective is how are they going to meet Chris Jone's demands now?
Doesn't really affect it at all, Mahomes new deal doesn't start for 2 more years, he's still playing under the last 2 years of his rookie deal. This makes it easier to sign Jones because the Mahomes contract is no longer looming and they now know exactly how much he's going to cost and what his impact on the cap is.

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:47 am

Jigga94 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:55 am
bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:36 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:15 pm Here are the supposed details.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city ... mes-21751/

That 2027 cap hit, wow.

Spotrac has a video breakdown of it, if you want to watch it. It's on Facebook, not sure where else.
The Cap is going to grow significantly between now and '27, and they'll probably be restructuring the deal around that time anyway.
Exactly. No way this deal isn't restructured by then. If it's not, then I'd venture to say that the cap went up and the cap hit will be right around the 15-20% range (similar to what a 30-40M contract is now)
From what I gather, it's Mahomes that will be the one restructuring it, not the team. He has most of the power in this, unless they want to cut him, or trade him. We also don't know how much the cap will grow. We just assume infinite growth, but I am not so sure. It will probably go down nex year, and the economy may not be in a great situation for a few years. The NFL will get a new TV deal, but they are also losing fans. Any way you slice it, this is a good thing for Mahomes, and the Chiefs have him locked up, but it's obviously a significant hit to their ability to built a team around him compared to what they were able to do on his rookie deal.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:55 am

bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:05 am 12 years ago the highest paid player/QB in the league was Peyton Manning at around 12M per year, it has now essentially tripled and the average starting QB salary is double that. With all the new revenue streams coming into the NFL, including the massive TV rights deals on the horizon, that trend is going to continue and QBs will be making $35-50M/Year in the not too distant future. It's far more likely that this deal is a massive value for KC in 8 years or so than it being an albatross that wrecks their Cap. Mahomes did give significant concessions on his value because he would have gotten SIGNIFICANTLY more if he had waited until the end of his rookie contract to renegotiate a new deal. This was 100% the right move by KC, and they could have given him more and it still.would have been worth it.
I disagree. Mahomes will always have the ability to say I want to renegotiate. I also don't think the cap keeps rising the way some think it will. It will stay the same, or even go down next year, in all probability. The NFL will get a new TV deal, but as I said earlier, they are also losing fans. The infinite growth theory is one I don't buy, at least not at the rate is has been. If it does, and it becomes a "value", Mahomes will just ask for more money. He's also being guaranteed money 2 years in advance, as this thing goes, so that is risk for the Chiefs.

I don't believe this deal significantly raises QB salaries, not until the cap goes up. He's a one off. Nobody in their right mind will "next man up" a lesser QB. Dak isn't going to get this type of deal. Watson may get something close, but not more IMO. It's just like with CMC, Dalvin tried the next man up theory, and thad didn't work. Mahomes can always ask for more money, as the elite players always do if their contracts become an issue for them vs the current market. As long as Mahomes is considered the top QB, he'll be paid like it. The positive for KC, is they have him under contract for 10 years, and will only have to renegotiate, not work out a new deal that doesn't exist. Mahomes has the leverage in this deal, though. It is fantastic for him on so many levels. He's got by far the most guaranteed money, his money becomes guaranteed 2 years in advance, every year it goes on, and he will be able to renegotiate any time he feels like it.
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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:24 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:55 am
bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:05 am 12 years ago the highest paid player/QB in the league was Peyton Manning at around 12M per year, it has now essentially tripled and the average starting QB salary is double that. With all the new revenue streams coming into the NFL, including the massive TV rights deals on the horizon, that trend is going to continue and QBs will be making $35-50M/Year in the not too distant future. It's far more likely that this deal is a massive value for KC in 8 years or so than it being an albatross that wrecks their Cap. Mahomes did give significant concessions on his value because he would have gotten SIGNIFICANTLY more if he had waited until the end of his rookie contract to renegotiate a new deal. This was 100% the right move by KC, and they could have given him more and it still.would have been worth it.
I disagree. Mahomes will always have the ability to say I want to renegotiate. I also don't think the cap keeps rising the way some think it will. It will stay the same, or even go down next year, in all probability. The NFL will get a new TV deal, but as I said earlier, they are also losing fans. The infinite growth theory is one I don't buy, at least not at the rate is has been. If it does, and it becomes a "value", Mahomes will just ask for more money. He's also being guaranteed money 2 years in advance, as this thing goes, so that is risk for the Chiefs.

I don't believe this deal significantly raises QB salaries, not until the cap goes up. He's a one off. Nobody in their right mind will "next man up" a lesser QB. Dak isn't going to get this type of deal. Watson may get something close, but not more IMO. It's just like with CMC, Dalvin tried the next man up theory, and thad didn't work. Mahomes can always ask for more money, as the elite players always do if their contracts become an issue for them vs the current market. As long as Mahomes is considered the top QB, he'll be paid like it. The positive for KC, is they have him under contract for 10 years, and will only have to renegotiate, not work out a new deal that doesn't exist. Mahomes has the leverage in this deal, though. It is fantastic for him on so many levels. He's got by far the most guaranteed money, his money becomes guaranteed 2 years in advance, every year it goes on, and he will be able to renegotiate any time he feels like it.
Lesser QB have been getting higher contracts for years. Did you forget that Carr got paid more than Luck the very next year Luck signed his deal? Wasn't Goffs deal also a record? The record gets broken all the time. Wouldn't be surprised if Watson or Dak sign larger average cap hits with less years on the contract

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby Servo » Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:32 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:38 am It appears that QBs that burn up too high of a portion of their team’s cap weaken the team as a whole. Football is a team sport, and sacrificing talent level and quality depth at other positions to pay a franchise QB, by the evidence, may not be the best investment to win championships.
I get what you're saying and yes, we're all aware it's a team sport but there are very few QB's who can literally put the team on their back...and Mahomes is one of them.

Keeping it up over 10 years is a different story but today, the guy has done everything to warrant a massive deal.

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby Blueboy » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:25 am

I imagine this means Chris Jones isn't getting his payday with KC, yeah? Maybe Sammy Watkins getting another contract with the team becomes impossible as well, unless he's willing to take a huge pay cut. More optimism for Hardman in 2021?

That's about the extent of the fantasy takeaway for me, though. KC becomes less likely to pursue big-name free agent skill position guys going forward, a bit more likely to build those positions through the draft.

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:34 am

Blueboy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:25 am I imagine this means Chris Jones isn't getting his payday with KC, yeah? Maybe Sammy Watkins getting another contract with the team becomes impossible as well, unless he's willing to take a huge pay cut. More optimism for Hardman in 2021?

That's about the extent of the fantasy takeaway for me, though. KC becomes less likely to pursue big-name free agent skill position guys going forward, a bit more likely to build those positions through the draft.
Mahomes only has cap hits of $5M, $25M and $31M the next 3 years, and then it's around $40M the 3 years after that. Most of Jones' money on a new deal will be in the next 2-3 years, so this really isn't going to affect Jones much if at all, he'll get his deal.

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby Blueboy » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:47 am

bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:34 am
Blueboy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:25 am I imagine this means Chris Jones isn't getting his payday with KC, yeah? Maybe Sammy Watkins getting another contract with the team becomes impossible as well, unless he's willing to take a huge pay cut. More optimism for Hardman in 2021?

That's about the extent of the fantasy takeaway for me, though. KC becomes less likely to pursue big-name free agent skill position guys going forward, a bit more likely to build those positions through the draft.
Mahomes only has cap hits of $5M, $25M and $31M the next 3 years, and then it's around $40M the 3 years after that. Most of Jones' money on a new deal will be in the next 2-3 years, so this really isn't going to affect Jones much if at all, he'll get his deal.
You're right that his cap hit isn't much for 2020, but the Chiefs still only have 6,222,787 in immediate availability. Committing to a long-term QB deal, which I think was the right move, does make it more difficult to move future money when you're already tight on space.

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:15 pm

But the contract doesn't change anything about their ability to fit Jones under the Cap now, because it hasn't changed their Cap outlook at all for the next 2 years. Anything on the books beyond 2 years doesn't really matter outside of a handful of key players, there's a good chance 50% of the roster is turned over anyway between now and then. Now maybe they really can't afford to extend Jones, I don't know all the details and complexities of their Cap situation obviously, but if they can't it's not because of the Mahomes deal because it really hasn't changed anything about their Cap situation for the next 4 years that we didn't already know or anticipate. Mahomes had the 2 years remaining on his rookie deal already set before this extension came out, and then he was always going to get $30-$40M in the two years following his rookie deal, whether that was through an extension or the Franchise Tag.

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:31 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:24 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:55 am
bjd5211 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:05 am 12 years ago the highest paid player/QB in the league was Peyton Manning at around 12M per year, it has now essentially tripled and the average starting QB salary is double that. With all the new revenue streams coming into the NFL, including the massive TV rights deals on the horizon, that trend is going to continue and QBs will be making $35-50M/Year in the not too distant future. It's far more likely that this deal is a massive value for KC in 8 years or so than it being an albatross that wrecks their Cap. Mahomes did give significant concessions on his value because he would have gotten SIGNIFICANTLY more if he had waited until the end of his rookie contract to renegotiate a new deal. This was 100% the right move by KC, and they could have given him more and it still.would have been worth it.
I disagree. Mahomes will always have the ability to say I want to renegotiate. I also don't think the cap keeps rising the way some think it will. It will stay the same, or even go down next year, in all probability. The NFL will get a new TV deal, but as I said earlier, they are also losing fans. The infinite growth theory is one I don't buy, at least not at the rate is has been. If it does, and it becomes a "value", Mahomes will just ask for more money. He's also being guaranteed money 2 years in advance, as this thing goes, so that is risk for the Chiefs.

I don't believe this deal significantly raises QB salaries, not until the cap goes up. He's a one off. Nobody in their right mind will "next man up" a lesser QB. Dak isn't going to get this type of deal. Watson may get something close, but not more IMO. It's just like with CMC, Dalvin tried the next man up theory, and thad didn't work. Mahomes can always ask for more money, as the elite players always do if their contracts become an issue for them vs the current market. As long as Mahomes is considered the top QB, he'll be paid like it. The positive for KC, is they have him under contract for 10 years, and will only have to renegotiate, not work out a new deal that doesn't exist. Mahomes has the leverage in this deal, though. It is fantastic for him on so many levels. He's got by far the most guaranteed money, his money becomes guaranteed 2 years in advance, every year it goes on, and he will be able to renegotiate any time he feels like it.
Lesser QB have been getting higher contracts for years. Did you forget that Carr got paid more than Luck the very next year Luck signed his deal? Wasn't Goffs deal also a record? The record gets broken all the time. Wouldn't be surprised if Watson or Dak sign larger average cap hits with less years on the contract
Watson wouldn't surprise me, but I would be absolutely shocked if Dak did. Jerry has been pretty clear about his intentions. Dak most likely gets tagged for 2 years. Mahomes deal won't be broken by Dak on yearly basis, salary IMO, not a chance. Mahomes will be paid like a top QB for the rest of his prime, one way or another. If the market catches up to him, he'll renegotiate it. The days of Mahomes being a bargain have ended. His rookie deal was that. He's not going to play without being paid as an elite player at the position. It really depends how the cap moves, which we can't predict over a ten year period. There is little chance the deal is played out as is, unless the NFL plateau's in earning, which is possible, as ten years of climate change, social change, and economic change are very difficult to predict.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:37 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:38 am
abloom wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:28 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:24 am The currently top 10 paid QBs have a combined total of 5 Super Bowl rings between them over the past 20 years. Expensive QBs come at a much greater cost than just their cap hits.
I'm confused. Are you saying that the higher paid QBs hurt their team in other ways besides their cap hit?

How many Super Bowl rings do the worst QBs in the league have over the same 20 year period?
That’s exactly what I am inferring. And we aren’t discussing the worst QBs in the league, so I’m not sure what your point is there.

It appears that QBs that burn up too high of a portion of their team’s cap weaken the team as a whole. Football is a team sport, and sacrificing talent level and quality depth at other positions to pay a franchise QB, by the evidence, may not be the best investment to win championships.
You're right we should have freed up all that cap and rolled with Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch instead.

There have been plenty of teams with QBs on big deals that were every bit good enough to win it all (2016 Falcons, 2014 Packers, 2018 Saints, 2019 49ers)

Some of these (2016 Falcons, 2018 Saints) were IMO the best teams that year even

Through unfortunate circumstances these teams (and others with a big % of cap to the QB) just didn't come away with rings--they were every bit capable of it

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:56 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:37 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:38 am
abloom wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:28 am

I'm confused. Are you saying that the higher paid QBs hurt their team in other ways besides their cap hit?

How many Super Bowl rings do the worst QBs in the league have over the same 20 year period?
That’s exactly what I am inferring. And we aren’t discussing the worst QBs in the league, so I’m not sure what your point is there.

It appears that QBs that burn up too high of a portion of their team’s cap weaken the team as a whole. Football is a team sport, and sacrificing talent level and quality depth at other positions to pay a franchise QB, by the evidence, may not be the best investment to win championships.
You're right we should have freed up all that cap and rolled with Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch instead.

There have been plenty of teams with QBs on big deals that were every bit good enough to win it all (2016 Falcons, 2014 Packers, 2018 Saints, 2019 49ers)

Some of these (2016 Falcons, 2018 Saints) were IMO the best teams that year even

Through unfortunate circumstances these teams (and others with a big % of cap to the QB) just didn't come away with rings--they were every bit capable of it
Thanks for the snarkiness. It really contributes greatly to the conversation.

I’m a GB fan, so believe me I understand quite well how a huge QB contract can negatively affects others parts of the team. GB has had some good records in that time, but they never really were threats to actually win the championship.

I also lived in DEN when they restructured Elway’s contract to a 25 year term so they could free cap space and keep the rest of the team around him stronger (I think the league eventually nixed that contract). Elway got it to the tune of B2B championships. The Packer team they beat was before Rodgers got his massive payday and was a much stronger team for it.

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:01 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:56 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:37 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:38 am

That’s exactly what I am inferring. And we aren’t discussing the worst QBs in the league, so I’m not sure what your point is there.

It appears that QBs that burn up too high of a portion of their team’s cap weaken the team as a whole. Football is a team sport, and sacrificing talent level and quality depth at other positions to pay a franchise QB, by the evidence, may not be the best investment to win championships.
You're right we should have freed up all that cap and rolled with Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch instead.

There have been plenty of teams with QBs on big deals that were every bit good enough to win it all (2016 Falcons, 2014 Packers, 2018 Saints, 2019 49ers)

Some of these (2016 Falcons, 2018 Saints) were IMO the best teams that year even

Through unfortunate circumstances these teams (and others with a big % of cap to the QB) just didn't come away with rings--they were every bit capable of it
Thanks for the snarkiness. It really contributes greatly to the conversation.

I’m a GB fan, so believe me I understand quite well how a huge QB contract can negatively affects others parts of the team. GB has had some good records in that time, but they never really were threats to actually win the championship.

I also lived in DEN when they restructured Elway’s contract to a 25 year term so they could free cap space and keep the rest of the team around him stronger (I think the league eventually nixed that contract). Elway got it to the tune of B2B championships. The Packer team they beat was before Rodgers got his massive payday and was a much stronger team for it.
Sorry for the snakiness. With the Broncos part I couldn't resist :)

But the 2014 Packers were absolutely legit contenders and an epic choke job away from beating the Legion of Boom in their house and getting to the Super Bowl. Since then the Packers drafting dropped off a cliff and until last offseason they didn't make any effort in free agency to make up for it

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Re: Mahomes new deal

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:04 pm

Prescott's second tag would pay him $37.7 million. Is Jerry even going to pay that much to him?
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Herbert, Goff
RB: Bijan, JT, Saquon, J.Cook, K.Hunt, Foreman, Z.White, McKinnon, S.Tucker
WR: G.Wilson, Olave, Jeudy, Pittman, J.Williams, OBJ, N. Brown, JuJu,
TE: Chig, Conklin, L. Thomas
Taxi: M.Mims, Ro. Johnson
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