Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

[mild]

The last time we had a running back that looked like CEH go 1.01 it was 2013. The RB was Giovanni Bernard.

And if Giovanni Bernard was drafted by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and called "better than Brian Westbrook" by the HC and GM, and drafted as a Chief and not a Bengal, and drafted in the 1st round instead of the 2nd - then I'm sure we'd be debating him as an ultra high pick this year too.

Maybe I've missed it, but I don't believe Andy Reid has ever been prone to ridiculous hyperbole on the player evaluation front. If he says he's better than Brian, then sure, feel free to ignore him - but he's a coach in the NFL who evaluates talent for a living and has put his money (first round pick) where his mouth is. You're just a dude playing devils advocate on a fantasy forum.

I really fail to see how CEH is going to be an outright bust in this situation, short of injury. Knock dah wood.

[Sriracha]

The last time we had a running back that looked like CEH go 1.01 it was 2013. The RB was Giovanni Bernard.

And if Giovanni Bernard was drafted by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and called "better than Brian Westbrook" by the HC and GM, and drafted as a Chief and not a Bengal, and drafted in the 1st round instead of the 2nd - then I'm sure we'd be debating him as an ultra high pick this year too.

Maybe I've missed it, but I don't believe Andy Reid has ever been prone to ridiculous hyperbole on the player evaluation front. If he says he's better than Brian, then sure, feel free to ignore him - but he's a coach in the NFL who evaluates talent for a living and has put his money (first round pick) where his mouth is. You're just a dude playing devils advocate on a fantasy forum.

I really fail to see how CEH is going to be an outright bust in this situation, short of injury. Knock dah wood.

The draft capital difference is literally 5 spots (32 vs 37). If you look at how Gio's usage rate changed throughout his career, it seems pretty obvious that Giovanni was drafted to be their lead back, and he wasn't able to seize the opportunity because he's wasn't sufficiently talented. If CEH fails, it will be because of the same reason.

[mild]

The draft capital difference is literally 5 spots (32 vs 37). If you look at how Gio's usage rate changed throughout his career, it seems pretty obvious that Giovanni was drafted to be their lead back, and he wasn't able to seize the opportunity because he's wasn't sufficiently talented. If CEH fails, it will be because of the same reason.

Fair enough. And if he becomes "better than Brian Westbrook" on the best offense in football - then you can't say that Andy didn't tell ya.

[Sriracha]

The draft capital difference is literally 5 spots (32 vs 37). If you look at how Gio's usage rate changed throughout his career, it seems pretty obvious that Giovanni was drafted to be their lead back, and he wasn't able to seize the opportunity because he's wasn't sufficiently talented. If CEH fails, it will be because of the same reason.

Fair enough. And if he becomes "better than Brian Westbrook" on the best offense in football - then you can't say that Andy didn't tell ya.

Fair enough

[ericanadian]

The last time we had a running back that looked like CEH go 1.01 it was 2013. The RB was Giovanni Bernard.

And if Giovanni Bernard was drafted by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and called "better than Brian Westbrook" by the HC and GM, and drafted as a Chief and not a Bengal, and drafted in the 1st round instead of the 2nd - then I'm sure we'd be debating him as an ultra high pick this year too.

Maybe I've missed it, but I don't believe Andy Reid has ever been prone to ridiculous hyperbole on the player evaluation front. If he says he's better than Brian, then sure, feel free to ignore him - but he's a coach in the NFL who evaluates talent for a living and has put his money (first round pick) where his mouth is. You're just a dude playing devils advocate on a fantasy forum.

I really fail to see how CEH is going to be an outright bust in this situation, short of injury. Knock dah wood.

The draft capital difference is literally 5 spots (32 vs 37). If you look at how Gio's usage rate changed throughout his career, it seems pretty obvious that Giovanni was drafted to be their lead back, and he wasn't able to seize the opportunity because he's wasn't sufficiently talented. If CEH fails, it will be because of the same reason.

He was drafted with Jay Gruden as the OC, and put up 1,200 yards pairing with Law Firm. Gruden left for Washington the next year and Hue Jackson was brought in. Bernard was on pace for 1,400 yards from scrimmage until going down with injury after seven games as the true starter. Hill came in and produced in his absence and Jackson moved on to a timeshare with Bernard as a passing down back.

Bernard probably wasn’t a great fit for an up the gut rushing attack like that of Jackson, but he wasn’t bad. He might’ve been a great producer for several years had Gruden stuck around. That said, that’s generally the problem with drafting where situation is a key component of the player’s success. You could say that about CEH as well. I’m not sure he’d have much of a shot as a three down back in many other systems as he is likely to have with Reid. The thing is, I can’t foresee a situation where Reid leaves KC and it certainly won’t be after one season.

[Johnny B. Goode]

The draft capital difference is literally 5 spots (32 vs 37). If you look at how Gio's usage rate changed throughout his career, it seems pretty obvious that Giovanni was drafted to be their lead back, and he wasn't able to seize the opportunity because he's wasn't sufficiently talented. If CEH fails, it will be because of the same reason.

Fair enough. And if he becomes "better than Brian Westbrook" on the best offense in football - then you can't say that Andy didn't tell ya.

You’re putting an awful lot of stock into this “Better than Westbrook” statement. Ignoring metrics and the fact that CEH is the worst 1st round rb profile within the last 1-2 decades. Not to mention, if you can’t pass block then that limits your opportunities. CEH not only can’t pas block, he literally won’t. Waldman talks about watching RBs and lookin for guys who are just bad at blocking vs guys who avoid contact and won’t block. The later is a red flag.

If I’m planting my flag on which RB will have the better career when it’s all said and done, I’ll take Westbrook

[mild]

You’re putting an awful lot of stock into this “Better than Westbrook” statement. Ignoring metrics and the fact that CEH is the worst 1st round rb profile within the last 1-2 decades. Not to mention, if you can’t pass block then that limits your opportunities. CEH not only can’t pas block, he literally won’t. Waldman talks about watching RBs and lookin for guys who are just bad at blocking vs guys who avoid contact and won’t block. The later is a red flag.

Am I putting any more stock into it than the man who literally said it to the media, used his 1st round pick on Clyde, and who literally coached Westbrook? There is zero impetus for Andy Reid to lie or embellish, here. That was simply his evaluation of the talent. (And I'm also putting stock in Burrow's statement, and major stock in what my eyes tell me when I watch Clyde)

Let's talk about pass blocking then. I would direct you to exhibit A:
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/going ... ing-report

From said article:

Chiefs’ RB Pass Blocking Usage: 28th of 32 (13% of passes a RB is in pass protection)

In another offense, I’d be more concerned with Edwards-Helaire’s poor pass-blocking data (see above), but the Chiefs simply don’t ask their running backs to sit in pass protection. Kansas City either goes empty or has their running backs run routes. That strategy will only be magnified with Edwards-Helaire, a very strong pass-catching back, on the roster. Given the rookie’s strength as a route runner and check-down option, I’m expecting him to handle most third-down reps in 2020. The Chiefs didn’t spend a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire to sit on the bench.

I'm not against anyone taking Taylor or Dobbins or Swift over Clyde. I agree that all three represent possibly "better" prospects from various physical perspectives, and are more self-contained in their talents and therefore Dynasty values. Clyde has jumped to the top of drafts off the back of a supreme situation, true - but lets not lose sight that it is literally the perfect situation for his skillset, and that that team and coaching situation is stable. It is also the most likely rookie RB situation to give immediate ROI in 2020, at which point you can ransom him or keep him.

[FantasyFreak]

The draft capital difference is literally 5 spots (32 vs 37). If you look at how Gio's usage rate changed throughout his career, it seems pretty obvious that Giovanni was drafted to be their lead back, and he wasn't able to seize the opportunity because he's wasn't sufficiently talented. If CEH fails, it will be because of the same reason.

Fair enough. And if he becomes "better than Brian Westbrook" on the best offense in football - then you can't say that Andy didn't tell ya.

You’re putting an awful lot of stock into this “Better than Westbrook” statement. Ignoring metrics and the fact that CEH is the worst 1st round rb profile within the last 1-2 decades. Not to mention, if you can’t pass block then that limits your opportunities. CEH not only can’t pas block, he literally won’t. Waldman talks about watching RBs and lookin for guys who are just bad at blocking vs guys who avoid contact and won’t block. The later is a red flag.

If I’m planting my flag on which RB will have the better career when it’s all said and done, I’ll take Westbrook

Worse that Jacobs? His profile doesn't scare me at all, personally. The kid is a hell of a football player. BTW, The idea Clyde won't pass block is ridiculous. I watched every LSU game over the past month or so, and that's just flat out wrong. He's very inconsistent with his technique, but he certainly gets stuck in at times. Clyde won't be asked to block much, anyways. Waldman made very similar remarks about JT's pass blocking, and claims Taylor is a 2 down back as it stands now. No prospect is without their faults, but I saw enough times where Clyde made legitimate efforts to be able to say I don't agree at all that he simply "won't block". As I said, I watched every LSU game with the sole purpose of scouting Burrow, CEH and Jefferson.

[FantasyFreak]

Not really. Consensus top rbs seem to pan out more often than not. Gurley, Zeke, Barkley, Jacobs to a lesser extent. His value certainly jumped from last year.

The last time we had a running back that looked like CEH go 1.01 it was 2013. The RB was Giovanni Bernard.

His first 3 years actually weren't all that bad. I think prime Gio would have been a beast in KCs offense with Reid as his coach. But CEH has a much better BMI and I think is way more fit to run the ball in today's NFL than Gio was back then.

CEH is a much tougher RB than Gio. Clyde has very good contact balance and an extremely powerful lower body. I did not see that with Gio.

[TheNuts]

It's hard to watch the tape of CEH and not be impressed. If it doesn't impress you then idk what you are looking for in a rb besides bigger. Kareem hunt posted around the same 40 time. There have been plenty of instances of a smaller rb doing just fine in the league. If anything a guy who can put up great fantasy numbers primarily by receiving is going to take less of a beating. Plus he doesn't have a million college touches on his legs

[Jigga94]

Fair enough. And if he becomes "better than Brian Westbrook" on the best offense in football - then you can't say that Andy didn't tell ya.

You’re putting an awful lot of stock into this “Better than Westbrook” statement. Ignoring metrics and the fact that CEH is the worst 1st round rb profile within the last 1-2 decades. Not to mention, if you can’t pass block then that limits your opportunities. CEH not only can’t pas block, he literally won’t. Waldman talks about watching RBs and lookin for guys who are just bad at blocking vs guys who avoid contact and won’t block. The later is a red flag.

If I’m planting my flag on which RB will have the better career when it’s all said and done, I’ll take Westbrook

Worse that Jacobs? His profile doesn't scare me at all, personally. The kid is a hell of a football player. BTW, The idea Clyde won't pass block is ridiculous. I watched every LSU game over the past month or so, and that's just flat out wrong. He's very inconsistent with his technique, but he certainly gets stuck in at times. Clyde won't be asked to block much, anyways. Waldman made very similar remarks about JT's pass blocking, and claims Taylor is a 2 down back as it stands now. No prospect is without their faults, but I saw enough times where Clyde made legitimate efforts to be able to say I don't agree at all that he simply "won't block". As I said, I watched every LSU game with the sole purpose of scouting Burrow, CEH and Jefferson.

Re: pass blocking, someone else had posted something along the lines that showed KC using their RB in pass blocking less than average. So it might not matter if he's not that good at it tbh

[FantasyFreak]

You’re putting an awful lot of stock into this “Better than Westbrook” statement. Ignoring metrics and the fact that CEH is the worst 1st round rb profile within the last 1-2 decades. Not to mention, if you can’t pass block then that limits your opportunities. CEH not only can’t pas block, he literally won’t. Waldman talks about watching RBs and lookin for guys who are just bad at blocking vs guys who avoid contact and won’t block. The later is a red flag.

If I’m planting my flag on which RB will have the better career when it’s all said and done, I’ll take Westbrook

Worse that Jacobs? His profile doesn't scare me at all, personally. The kid is a hell of a football player. BTW, The idea Clyde won't pass block is ridiculous. I watched every LSU game over the past month or so, and that's just flat out wrong. He's very inconsistent with his technique, but he certainly gets stuck in at times. Clyde won't be asked to block much, anyways. Waldman made very similar remarks about JT's pass blocking, and claims Taylor is a 2 down back as it stands now. No prospect is without their faults, but I saw enough times where Clyde made legitimate efforts to be able to say I don't agree at all that he simply "won't block". As I said, I watched every LSU game with the sole purpose of scouting Burrow, CEH and Jefferson.

Re: pass blocking, someone else had posted something along the lines that showed KC using their RB in pass blocking less than average. So it might not matter if he's not that good at it tbh

Yeah, it was me, actually. I was worried about Clyde's blocking, it was very spotty. Very poor technique at times, but I saw that stat and so posted it here, to show he will not be in the situation all that much anyways.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I was also concerned about it, and the point that KC doesn’t ask their RBs to do that in the first place is a reassuring one.

I still think that CEH is a limited athlete, and I would (and have) trade back before taking him as the 1.01. There’s effectively no precedent for a guy both that small and that slow finding the kind of success we’re projecting for CEH, but with PPR scoring and a ton of probably targets suggests he’ll be a strong fantasy producer. His career may force people to re-evaluate RB analysis.

[FantasyFreak]

I was also concerned about it, and the point that KC doesn’t ask their RBs to do that in the first place is a reassuring one.

I still think that CEH is a limited athlete, and I would (and have) trade back before taking him as the 1.01. There’s effectively no precedent for a guy both that small and that slow finding the kind of success we’re projecting for CEH, but with PPR scoring and a ton of probably targets suggests he’ll be a strong fantasy producer. His career may force people to re-evaluate RB analysis.

I mean, Jacobs was a guy that didn't really have a good comp, either. Little production, terrible 40 time, first round pedigree. I'd be more concerned with Clyde if he didn't have an upper percentile burst, and clearly show his agility and strength on the field. His athleticism in a football context, other than 40, is actually quite good, to me. The burst definitely shows up when you watch him. He's not going to break long runs like JT, but his athleticism to be able to make guys miss behind the LOS is something I don't see from JT to nearly the same level. It's apples and oranges, with those two. Completely different backs, which makes the 1.01 debate that much more interesting, as it's two players with very little similarities at all.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I was also concerned about it, and the point that KC doesn’t ask their RBs to do that in the first place is a reassuring one.

I still think that CEH is a limited athlete, and I would (and have) trade back before taking him as the 1.01. There’s effectively no precedent for a guy both that small and that slow finding the kind of success we’re projecting for CEH, but with PPR scoring and a ton of probably targets suggests he’ll be a strong fantasy producer. His career may force people to re-evaluate RB analysis.

I mean, Jacobs was a guy that didn't really have a good comp, either. Little production, terrible 40 time, first round pedigree. I'd be more concerned with Clyde if he didn't have an upper percentile burst, and clearly show his agility and strength on the field. His athleticism in a football context, other than 40, is actually quite good, to me. The burst definitely shows up when you watch him. He's not going to break long runs like JT, but his athleticism to be able to make guys miss behind the LOS is something I don't see from JT to nearly the same level. It's apples and oranges, with those two. Completely different backs, which makes the 1.01 debate that much more interesting, as it's two players with very little similarities at all.

Jacobs was also 220 and ran 4.52 at his second pro-day coming off an injury. After you adjust 4.52 to 4.57, there’s plenty of precedent for guys like that- Kareem Hunt, Frank Gore, Alf Morris and Mark Ingram come to mind. He wasn’t prototypical, sure. But big backs without great athleticism have succeeded. With regard to Helaire, I think the only significant fantasy assets who were that small and that slow are Singletary and Dion Lewis.

Anyways, more importantly, Jacobs was the 1.01 in a much weaker class and wasn’t a late first/early second startup value. Helaire is going 2.01 ahead of Jacobs right now (as well as going ahead of Taylor). This time last year, Jacobs was the 3.03 in startups, which felt very reasonable.

Ultimately I just feel like it’s a huge investment for a guy that was going 40 spots lower in startups before the NFL draft. With that type of capital, I would just rather have somebody who’s got a profile more consistent with sustained NFL success, and if I can trade back and get something else, even better.

I’ll get some in redraft, where his RB14 status on Yahoo looks like a strong value.