When To Sell Studs

This is the place for team advice - should I make this trade, should I draft that player, etc.
User avatar
throwaway1604
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 239
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:02 pm

When To Sell Studs

Postby throwaway1604 » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:29 pm

Team 1 in sig narrowly came in 2nd place last year and is one of two or three heavy favorites. However, I have WRs/RBs all around probable peak value as opposed to long term guys. How do I churn this roster to keep it competitive yearly instead of a short window? I know 10 team is about actually having and keeping the studs but any thoughts? Obviously there's easy takes here like selling Drake or Hilton for some youth but I'm talking about my top 36 ranked players (Nuk, Evans, Cook) for example
All teams settings:
NON-Superflex, Full PPR, Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLEX

10 Team
QB: Rodgers, Tannehil, Lance
RB: Cook, Chubb, Taylor, Hunt, Drake, Davis, Mattison, Penny
WR: MT, Nuk, Evans, Hill, Sutton, D. Smith, OBJ, E Moore, Renfrow
TE: Kittle, Schultz, Higbee, Njoku
22: 3rd, 4th
23: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
24: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

12 team
QB: Ryan, Hurts
RB: Taylor, Mixon, Henderson, Bernard, Michel, Mcnichols
WR: DJM, Sutton, Thielen, Gallup, OBJ, Toney, Kirk, Mims, Harry, Slayton
TE: Kittle, Pitts

22: 2nd, 3rd, 4th
23: 1st, 3rd (x2), 4th
24: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th


12 Team
QB: Jackson, Mayfield
RB: Taylor, J. Williams, Mack, Guice, D. Evans
WR: AJB, Godwin, Toney, Harry, Reynolds, Wilson
TE: Jonnu, Doyle
22: 1st, 2nd (x3), 4th
23: 1st (x3), 2nd (x2), 3rd (x2), 4th
24: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd (x2), 4th

User avatar
Gator Sens
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 53938
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:17 am
Contact:

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Gator Sens » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:46 pm

Tough question. I think in season is the best time to sell high end players if your team is not performing as expected. On the flip side, if your team is a contender, sometimes there is no good time to sell studs and its simply better to keep them. If it's not broke, no reason to tinker.

Overachiever77
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 359
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2015 5:27 pm

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Overachiever77 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:59 am

Gator Sens wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:46 pm Tough question. I think in season is the best time to sell high end players if your team is not performing as expected. On the flip side, if your team is a contender, sometimes there is no good time to sell studs and its simply better to keep them. If it's not broke, no reason to tinker.
Exactly
10 team, .5 PPR dynasty, 25 man roster plus 5 rookie/2nd year taxi
Start 1QB, 2RB, 2,WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE flex, 1K, 1DST

QB: Watson, Tua, Stafford, Richardson
RB: McCaffrey, Barkley, Chubb, Dobbins, Swift, Stevenson, Gibbs, Pacheco, Charbs
WR: AJB, Evans, Chase, E. Moore, McLaurin, Jeudy, JSN, Metchie, A. Pierce, Doubs
TE: Andrews, Pitts, Goedart, Ertz, Likely
K: Koo
D/ST: BAL, MIA, LV
2024: 1,2, 2, 3, 3,4,4

Zacsby
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1150
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:46 pm

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Zacsby » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:22 am

Agree with the posts above. I wouldn't make any trades with that team that are geared more toward the future unless things aren't going your way in season.
12 Team SF IDP
QB - Mahomes, Lawrence, Mac
RB - Etienne, Walker, Rhamondre, Javonte, Akers, CEH
WR - AJB, Waddle, Higgins, Gabe, Toney
TE - Andrews, ISJ
DL - Quinnen, Highsmith, Josh Allen
LB - Lloyd, JOK, Gay, Bush
DB - Winfield, Love, Delpit

14 Team 1QB IDP
QB - Fields, Jimmy G
RB - Henry, Kamara, Swift, Herbert
WR - Adams, Juju, Jakobi, Theilen
TE - Hock, Everett
DL - Garrett, Buckner, Sweat
LB - White, David, Okereke, Jack
DB - Budda, CJGJ, Dugger, Byard

User avatar
dblj1199
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 10164
Joined: Wed Oct 30, 2013 12:17 pm

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby dblj1199 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:51 am

It's a hard question because there never is a good time. You sell them too early and you regret it, too late and you regret it. I was going to sell off Megatron a few years ago and he retired. I was going to sell off AP and he was suspended. I held on to AJG, AB for too long........but I won championships 2 of 3 years. So if you are contending and can win it go for it. Your team is solid and really needs a high end young qb. You could probably afford to deal a wr for picks / youth and you still have the depth to deal with that. Other than that I'd go for it.
2015, 2017, 2022 Champ.
10 team, 6 pt all td, ppr, 1.5 te ppr. 30 man roster QB, SF, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex (r/w/t), K, 3 IDP


Qb- Mahomes, Prudy, Baker
RB- S Barkley, Pollard, B Hall, K Herbert, D Foreman, R Johnson, Zeke, J Robinson, Z White, J Wilson(i.r.), J McKinnon, J Mason, J Hill
WR- J Jefferson, Deebo, DJ Moore, OBJ, S Moore, J Jennings, C Austin, Trey Palmer
TE- Andrews, Higbee, Dulchich, Ferguson, D Washington
IDP(3)- P Queen,D Perryman, J Jewell, J Campbell, N Dean (i.r.)
K- E McPherson, Butker

draft picks
2024- 2, 4, 5
2025- 3, 3, 4, 5

BradysBunch
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3242
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:40 am

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby BradysBunch » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:05 am

I trade them when I can get a great deal for me or when I think they are at their peak trade value. That being said, it doesn't always work out for me. I win some and lose some. I had Chubb and Evans this year that I wanted to trade away and get younger. I traded Chubb for the 1.1 and m. Brown. My thought process was I was getting younger at RB ( took CEH ). I think they will be close this year in PPG. I will take the chance on the youth. Brown was a bonus for me. I ended up trading him for the 2.1 and took Lamb when he fell. I tried trading Evans for a top 6 pick and a young wr I liked. No one wanted Evans. I even tried next year's first and a wr. No luck. I found a bottom team ( should be top two pick next year ) and gave Evans for his first and b. Edwards. Then flipped that pick and a 3rd for DJM. My point is, I want to stay young and competitive at all times. No one is ever off limits. I don't want to get caught holding a stud who is on the downturn where I can't sell him. I have been trying to sell Hopkins too. But I will be patient and wait for the right deal. Worst case, I keep him and try for another championship.
9(yes 9) team / 28 man rosters
15/17/19/21 Champ
SF/PPR
QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/flex/SF
Mahomes/TLAW/Fields
N. Harris/J. Williams/Gibbs/CEH/A. Jones/Hubbard/Haskins/Ingram
Kupp/Jefferson/Chase/Lamb/Hopkins/MT/Watson/Dotson/
Kelce/Hurst

Online
User avatar
pmart33
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2973
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:56 am

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby pmart33 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:18 am

In a perfect world you sell players at the perfect time... but this is dynasty so there is no such thing as a perfect world, or so it seems. With stud RBs I am okay selling a year too early rather than a year too late. Typically Their values balloon 3-4 years into their careers and then dip significantly. With WRs I wait until they get into their late 20s. Idk about other leagues but in the 3 leagues I play in WR values go down drastically once age 30 rolls around, despite many of them maintaining solid production.

For your team, I’d hold for now and compete. That’s a good roster, so play to win. Just be ready to move your vets for picks and young guys should the season not go well.
Last edited by pmart33 on Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
For Podcasts, Blogs and more please visit:
https://www.sundaysurefire.com/

Team 1
12 Team .5 PPR
Starters 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2Flex-WR/RB/TE

QB Hurts Love Cousins
RB CMC Stevenson Ekeler Mostert Spiller
WR Hill Puka Aiyuk Diggs
TE Kelce

Team 2
12 Team PPR SF TE Prem
Starters 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 3Flex-WR/RB/TE

QB Kyler A-Rich
RB Dobbins Hull
WR Flowers London C. Watson Mingo
TE McBride Musgrave Mayer Fant

1.01 1.03
4 2025 1sts
5 2026 1sts

Team 3
12 Team PPR SF
Starters 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 2Flex-WR/RB/TE

QB Burrow Purdy Howell
RB Taylor Hall Kyren Ekeler Pollard Z. White
WR Lamb Deebo Dionte Puka M. Williams Zay Jones
TE Njoku Fant Hill

Team 4
12 Team .5 PPR SF TE Prem 1 PPR
Starters 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 2Flex-WR/RB/TE

QB Fields Watson Purdy Cousins
RB Bijan Gibbs Barkley Walker Kyren Stevenson Gibson
WR Lamb Hill Kupp Dell Diontae E. Moore Mims Pierce
TE Hockenson Goedert

2.01
3 2025 1sts
4 2026 1sts

User avatar
moishetreats
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6520
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:37 pm
Contact:

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby moishetreats » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:19 am

What happens after a player peaks is one of two things (since, in theory, they can't go higher):

1) They have a slow drop-off; or
2) They have a big drop-off.

You goal in selling studs is to identify which of them you think will have a big drop-off. For instance, a couple years ago, I was coming off a championship season and sold D. Freeman after his second big season. One year ago, off second-place finish in one league and a championship in another, I sold off James Conner. This past March, I sold A. Jones after a championship. (Don't worry: I've had my share of misses, too!)

The point is to consider which studs you think will have a quick drop. Those are the ones to sell -- even at 85% of their value -- to get future assets.

With that in mind, I see Hill and Kittle as the only must-keeps. Everyone else goes on the block for feelers.

For this guys, I would only sell at 100% of value or more:
-MT, Sutton, maybe Evans

For these guys, I'd take 85%-100% of value:
-Cook, Chubb, Drake, Nuk, Evans if not above

Everybody else could fall in the 75%-85% range if you want to move them.

One other note: Keep flipping back-end-of-the-roster players for mid-round draft picks. You don't need to wait for those guys to develop in a win-now team. That does two things. First, it gives you trade ammo in the future as additional throw-ins. Second, it keeps a couple of roster spots open for bye-week fillers and/or for new upside stashes that you can then continue to flip.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

User avatar
Zech13
Captain
Captain
Posts: 842
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:28 am

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Zech13 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:28 am

Just my thoughts....it’s about championships. Drive it till the wheels fall off. Each team I have will have a different strategy based on the rosters. You can usually sell an aging vet for a 2nd or 3rd round pick so loading up on those can refill the youth pool.

makemeasandwich
Captain
Captain
Posts: 960
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:59 am

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby makemeasandwich » Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:56 am

QB’s and TE’s I tend to hold unless I get an obvious overpay. RB I try and sell during their age 24-25 season/offseason and WR during their age 26-27 season/offseason. It’s the ole’ Matt Kelley philosophy, but it’s worked out pretty well for me so far. Usually if you put players on the trade bait right after their peak season you’ll have people reaching out to you, which puts the trade leverage in your corner. WR’s are more forgiving in term of holding their value, but wait too long on an RB and their value plummets.

Edgy68
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3933
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:04 am
Location: Zanesville, OH

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Edgy68 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:58 pm

For Wasteland, I sold Evans and Adams in a retooling move. I got C. Ridley, 1.01 (CEH in PPR), 1.05 (Lamb), and the 2021 1st from the team that earned 1.01 this year. Adams will be awesome this year, but one more concussion may put him in Cooks territory. I don’t know that Evans gets the targets like he did from Winston. I think I helped my team for the future and remained competitive now.
Wasteland
12-team, PPR 25 roster 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1(RB/WR/TE), 1 D/ST
QB J. Burrow, A. Richardson
RB J. Taylor, D. Henry, M. Sanders, B. Hall, T. Sermon, C. Patterson, P. Strong, K. Ingram, TDP, D. Achane, K. Miller, R. Johnson
WR AJ Brown, C. Ridley, J. Chase, C. Lamb, JSN, G. Pickens, K. Osborn, J. Meyers, A. Pierce, T. Scott
TE T. Kelce, D. Goedert, G. Dulcich, J. Woods
D/ST MIN, PIT, DEN

Panthers
12-team SF, .5 PPR 35 roster: 1QB, 1SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 2DB, 2LB, 2DL, 1FLEX
QB J. Burrow, A. Richardson, J. Winston, S. Howell
RB J. Mixon, E. Elliott, N. Chubb, J. Kelley, K. Harris, J. Ford
WR D. Hopkins, C. Godwin, T. Higgins, C. Ridley, J. Smith-Njigba, J. Mingo
TE T. Kelce, K. Pitts, Z. Ertz, D. Goedert, J. Ferguson
DB R. Grant, J. Simmons
DL D. Hunter, A. Highsmith, S. Hubbard
LB C. Mosley, A. Singleton, P. Queen, D. Deablo

FantasyFreak
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 27105
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:53 pm

Tough call, with all the uncertainty right now, losing this season would be a big blow for you value wise, and obviously because you lose a year in a win window. IF you believe we will have a season, hold, if you don't, start moving guys like MT and Nuk for some youth.
"You're a creep. You got caught.." -Dan Patrick

User avatar
FantasyFoosball
Legend
Legend
Posts: 7173
Joined: Wed May 02, 2018 10:23 am

Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby FantasyFoosball » Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:36 am

Pretty easy for me. If I’m contending I hold all my guys. If I’m not contending, and guys are starting to age, I sell them. If I have a lot of depth, I’ll sell some studs to upgrade to an elite guy.
Team One:
10 Team Salary Cap League w/ IDP - Est. 2018
2018: Champions!
2019: Champions!!
2020: 2nd Place
2021: Loss in Semis
2022: Champions!!!
.5 PPR/$200 budget
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE, 1 K, 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 3 DL/LB/DB

QB - Mahomes
RB - CMC, White, Sanders, Herbert, Foreman, McKinnon
WR - Diggs, Ridley, Godwin, KJ Osborn, Woods, Claypool, Campbell
TE - Kittle, Goedert, Gesicki
K - Bass
DL - Reddick, Jones, M. Sweat
LB - R. Smith, Wagner, Leonard, White, Perryman, Cashman
DB - Byard, Bell, Hobbs, Jenkins

2024: 3rd

Team Two:
DLF Advice Forum League
14 Team PPR SF/TE Premium (2PPR)
2020: 4th Place
2021: 2nd Place
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1SF, 2Flex
QB - Allen, Carr, Mayfield, Trask, Zappe
RB - Harris, Gibson, Herbert, K. Miller, C. Brown
WR - MT, G. Davis, Bourne, Skyy Moore, Reynolds, Shakir, A.T. Perry, C. Moore, Hinton
TE - Kittle, Andrews, Woods

2024: 1, 2, 3, 4


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: JamboMac, pmart33 and 31 guests