When To Sell Studs

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throwaway1604
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When To Sell Studs

Postby throwaway1604 » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:29 pm

Team 1 in sig narrowly came in 2nd place last year and is one of two or three heavy favorites. However, I have WRs/RBs all around probable peak value as opposed to long term guys. How do I churn this roster to keep it competitive yearly instead of a short window? I know 10 team is about actually having and keeping the studs but any thoughts? Obviously there's easy takes here like selling Drake or Hilton for some youth but I'm talking about my top 36 ranked players (Nuk, Evans, Cook) for example
All teams Non-SF PPR, Req. starters bold

'18 Startup 10 Team
'19 2nd Place
QB: Rodgers, Trubisky
RB: Cook, Chubb, Drake, Taylor, Hunt, Penny, Barber, Mattison, Duke J,
WR: MT, Nuk, Hill, Evans, Sutton Hilton, J Brown, Reynolds,
TE: Kittle, Higbee, Graham, Njoku
Taxi: Renfrow, K Johnson, T Williams, V Jefferson
Picks: 2021 1st, 2nd(x2), 3rd, 4th 2022 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th


'19 Startup 12 Team
QB: Ryan, Roethlisberger
RB: Mixon, Taylor, Michel, Penny, Bernard, Smith
WR: Beckham, Moore, Sutton, Gallup, Slayton Harry, Bourne, Wilson, JJAW, Hurd, R Higgins
TE: Kittle, Fant
Taxi: Mims, Duvernay, Hurts
Picks: 2021 1st, 4th 2022 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

'20 Startup 12 Team
QB: Jackson, Darnold, Winston
RB: Jacobs, Taylor, Guice, D. Evans, Dallas, Freeman, Anderson
WR: MT, AJB, Landry, Boyd, Tate Harry, Lazerd
TE: Kittle, Sternberger, Everett, Okwuegnbunam
Picks: 2021 4th 2022 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Gator Sens
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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Gator Sens » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:46 pm

Tough question. I think in season is the best time to sell high end players if your team is not performing as expected. On the flip side, if your team is a contender, sometimes there is no good time to sell studs and its simply better to keep them. If it's not broke, no reason to tinker.

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Overachiever77 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:59 am

Gator Sens wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:46 pm
Tough question. I think in season is the best time to sell high end players if your team is not performing as expected. On the flip side, if your team is a contender, sometimes there is no good time to sell studs and its simply better to keep them. If it's not broke, no reason to tinker.
Exactly
10 team, .5 PPR dynasty, 25 man roster plus 5 rookie/2nd year taxi
Start 1QB, 2RB, 2,WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE flex, 1K, 1DST

QB: Watson, Stafford, Darnold
RB: Barkley, Chubb, Hunt, Kamara, Sanders, Dobbins, Swift, Harris
WR: Nuk, Julio, Evans, Cooper, C. Davis, Deebo, McLaurin, Jeudy, Ruggs, Edwards, V. Jefferson
TE: Ertz, Njoku, Hooper, Gesicki, Trautman, Bryant
K: Koo
D/ST: New Orleans, TB, IND
2021 - 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Zacsby » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:22 am

Agree with the posts above. I wouldn't make any trades with that team that are geared more toward the future unless things aren't going your way in season.
12 Tm SF PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (2) SF
QB - Lamar, Brees, Daniel Jones, Taysom, Stidham
RB - CMC, AJ, Drake, Robinson, Cohen, AP
WR - Golladay, Boyd, Landry, Sanders, Mecole
TE - Kelce, Hurst, Rudolph, Oliver

12 Tm SF, Tiered PPR (.5RB, 1WR, 1.5TE) Start 9
QB - Watson, Daniel Jones, Tannehill, Stidham
RB - Kamara, Carson, Michel, Scott, Penny
WR - Nuk, Evans, Ridley, M-Will, P-Will, Washington
TE - Kittle, Rudolph, Reed

24 Tm 2 Copy PPR - QB, RB (2), WR (2), TE, FLX (3)
QB - Stafford, Jimmy G, Cousins
RB - CEH, Taylor, Hunt, Singletary, Moss, Breida, Gibson, Darwin
WR - Godwin, Golladay, AJB, M-Will, Ruggs, Higgins, Duvernay
TE - Andrews, Hurst, Herndon
21 Picks - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby dblj1199 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:51 am

It's a hard question because there never is a good time. You sell them too early and you regret it, too late and you regret it. I was going to sell off Megatron a few years ago and he retired. I was going to sell off AP and he was suspended. I held on to AJG, AB for too long........but I won championships 2 of 3 years. So if you are contending and can win it go for it. Your team is solid and really needs a high end young qb. You could probably afford to deal a wr for picks / youth and you still have the depth to deal with that. Other than that I'd go for it.
2015, 2017 Champ.
ppr, 10 team, 6 pt all td, 30 man roster QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex (r/w/t), K, 3 IDP
Qb- Mahomes, Baker, Darnold
RB- Zeke, Mostert, Hunt, J Robinson, K Johnson, Snell Jr, Pollard, Ingram
WR- OBJ (i.r.), A Cooper, DJ Moore, TY Hilton, D Parker, J Jefferson, AJ Greene, AB, Q Cephus, KeKe Coutee
TE- Waller, H Henry, Gronk, OJ Howard (i.r.), Albert O (i.r.)
IDP(3)- VanderEsch, B Martinez, P Queen, A Johnson, K Neal
K- J Sanders

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby BradysBunch » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:05 am

I trade them when I can get a great deal for me or when I think they are at their peak trade value. That being said, it doesn't always work out for me. I win some and lose some. I had Chubb and Evans this year that I wanted to trade away and get younger. I traded Chubb for the 1.1 and m. Brown. My thought process was I was getting younger at RB ( took CEH ). I think they will be close this year in PPG. I will take the chance on the youth. Brown was a bonus for me. I ended up trading him for the 2.1 and took Lamb when he fell. I tried trading Evans for a top 6 pick and a young wr I liked. No one wanted Evans. I even tried next year's first and a wr. No luck. I found a bottom team ( should be top two pick next year ) and gave Evans for his first and b. Edwards. Then flipped that pick and a 3rd for DJM. My point is, I want to stay young and competitive at all times. No one is ever off limits. I don't want to get caught holding a stud who is on the downturn where I can't sell him. I have been trying to sell Hopkins too. But I will be patient and wait for the right deal. Worst case, I keep him and try for another championship.
10 team / 28 man rosters
2015/2017/2019 Champ
SF/PPR
QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/flex/SF
Mahomes/Murray/Winston/Haskins/Trubisky
CMAC/CEH/Mixon/Robinson/Harris
Hopkins/Thomas/DJM/Woods/Lamb/Chark/B. Edwards/P.Williams/Campbell/AB
Kelce/Hurst

1.1/1.4/1.5/1.9

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby pmart33 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:18 am

In a perfect world you sell players at the perfect time... but this is dynasty so there is no such thing as a perfect world, or so it seems. With stud RBs I am okay selling a year too early rather than a year too late. Typically Their values balloon 3-4 years into their careers and then dip significantly. With WRs I wait until they get into their late 20s. Idk about other leagues but in the 3 leagues I play in WR values go down drastically once age 30 rolls around, despite many of them maintaining solid production.

For your team, I’d hold for now and compete. That’s a good roster, so play to win. Just be ready to move your vets for picks and young guys should the season not go well.
Last edited by pmart33 on Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Team 1
12 Team .5 PPR (Year 5)
Starters 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2Flex-WR/RB/TE

QB Dak Wilson Stafford
RB Chubb Mixon Hunt Bell Pollard Gio
WR Metcalf Brown Diggs Cooper Golladay Jeudy Mims Tyler Johnson
TE Kelce Irv Smith

Team 2
12 Team PPR (Year 3)
Starters 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 2Flex-WR/RB/TE

QB Wentz Jones Ben Hill
RB CMC CEH Taylor Swift Justice Hill
WR Adams Juju Evans Moore Higgins Crowder Reagor
TE Goedert Ertz

Team 3
12 Team PPR SF (Year 2)
Starters 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 2Flex-WR/RB/TE

QB Watson Burrow Mariota Fitz
RB Hines Lindsay Wilson
WR Moore Juju Aiyuk Gallup C. Davis Mims Campbell
TE Fant Irv Njoku

Team 4
12 Team PPR SF TE Prem (Startup in progress)
Starters 1QB 1SF 1RB 1WR 1TE 7Flex-WR/RB/TE

QB Mahomes Allen Cousins
RB Najee Harris Sanders Rojo Drake Hubbard
WR Woods Fuller Parker Pittman Slayton
TE Hockenson Hooper Gronk

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moishetreats
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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby moishetreats » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:19 am

What happens after a player peaks is one of two things (since, in theory, they can't go higher):

1) They have a slow drop-off; or
2) They have a big drop-off.

You goal in selling studs is to identify which of them you think will have a big drop-off. For instance, a couple years ago, I was coming off a championship season and sold D. Freeman after his second big season. One year ago, off second-place finish in one league and a championship in another, I sold off James Conner. This past March, I sold A. Jones after a championship. (Don't worry: I've had my share of misses, too!)

The point is to consider which studs you think will have a quick drop. Those are the ones to sell -- even at 85% of their value -- to get future assets.

With that in mind, I see Hill and Kittle as the only must-keeps. Everyone else goes on the block for feelers.

For this guys, I would only sell at 100% of value or more:
-MT, Sutton, maybe Evans

For these guys, I'd take 85%-100% of value:
-Cook, Chubb, Drake, Nuk, Evans if not above

Everybody else could fall in the 75%-85% range if you want to move them.

One other note: Keep flipping back-end-of-the-roster players for mid-round draft picks. You don't need to wait for those guys to develop in a win-now team. That does two things. First, it gives you trade ammo in the future as additional throw-ins. Second, it keeps a couple of roster spots open for bye-week fillers and/or for new upside stashes that you can then continue to flip.
www.fantasyfootballforever.com - SF/2QB website

10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Wilson, Wentz, Rodgers, Love
RB: Mixon, Gurley, Montgomery, Dillon, Moss, Armstead
WR: Hill, Cooper, Lockett, Hilton, Anderson, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Sims, Ward, Renfrow
TE: Kelce, Goedert, Jarwin, Sternberger, K Smith, Arnold, L Thomas

2021: 2ndx3, 3rdx2, 4thx2, 5th
2022: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 plyrs {IR} [Taxi]. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex/ best ball

QB: Stafford ($36 through 2022), Brady (43), Rodgers (28/21), Garappolo (5/20), Winston (3/24), K Allen (1/20) [Morgan (1/24), Luton (1/24), Gordon (1/24)]
RB: Mixon (29/23), Gurley (5/20), Dillon (12/24), Z Moss (10/24), Hines (1/20), Snell (1/20) [Perine (2/22)]
WR: Adams (31/22), Cooper (28/20), Kupp (3/21), AJ Brown (7/23), R Anderson (3/21), Ward (1/20)
TE: Kelce (28/21), Ertz (22/21), Goedert (8/22)
Total+dead cap hits $286

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Zech13
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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Zech13 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:28 am

Just my thoughts....it’s about championships. Drive it till the wheels fall off. Each team I have will have a different strategy based on the rosters. You can usually sell an aging vet for a 2nd or 3rd round pick so loading up on those can refill the youth pool.
2019 Champion

10 Team Dynasty 0.5 PPR 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 Flex (RB,WR, TE), 1TE, 1 D/ST
28 Man Roster, 2 IR, 2 Taxi
QB: Lamar Jackson, Minshew, Tannehill
RB: Zeke, Chubb,Dobbins, M. Sanders, Duke Johnson, McFarland, Hunt
WR: M. Thomas, Hopkins, DJ Moore, Golladay, N. Harry, A.J. Brown, Diontae Johnson, KJ Hamler, Sims, Tre’Quan Smith, AIyuk, P. Campbell, Pittman, Shenault
TE: Henry, Kelce, Goedert, Irv Smith, Tonyan

Picks: 2021 1st, 2021 2nd


14 team SF/TE premium (2ppr) 1QB, 2RB,3WR, 3RB/WR/TE, 1SF 25 man roster

QB- Jones, Daniel, Ryan, Wilson
RB- Breida, Chubb, Gaskin, Gore, D. Henderson , D. Henry, Ingram, Duke, Boston Scott, Ito Smith
WR- Boyd, Deebo, Golladay, Tyreek, Tyron Johnson, Kirk, Landry, Meyers, Tate
TE- Ertz, Goedert, Hurst, K Smith

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby makemeasandwich » Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:56 am

QB’s and TE’s I tend to hold unless I get an obvious overpay. RB I try and sell during their age 24-25 season/offseason and WR during their age 26-27 season/offseason. It’s the ole’ Matt Kelley philosophy, but it’s worked out pretty well for me so far. Usually if you put players on the trade bait right after their peak season you’ll have people reaching out to you, which puts the trade leverage in your corner. WR’s are more forgiving in term of holding their value, but wait too long on an RB and their value plummets.

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby Edgy68 » Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:58 pm

For Wasteland, I sold Evans and Adams in a retooling move. I got C. Ridley, 1.01 (CEH in PPR), 1.05 (Lamb), and the 2021 1st from the team that earned 1.01 this year. Adams will be awesome this year, but one more concussion may put him in Cooks territory. I don’t know that Evans gets the targets like he did from Winston. I think I helped my team for the future and remained competitive now.
Wasteland
12-team, PPR 25 roster 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1(RB/WR/TE), 1 D/ST
QB D. Brees, L. Jackson, J. Burrow
RB D. Henry, M. Sanders, CEH, J. Dobbins, J. Taylor, A. Matt., J. Hill, K. Vaughn, S. Phillips
WR M. Thomas, C. Sutton, C. Ridley, C. Lamb, T. Higgins, JJAW, J. Hurd, J. Reynolds, T. Patrick, I. Ford, Q. Watkins, J. Meyers, C. Johnson
TE T. Kelce, D. Goedert, L. Thomas, A. O
D/ST MIN, TEN, DEN
2021 1.07, 1.10, 1.11, 3.11, 4.11, 5.11

Panthers
12-team SF, .5 PPR 35 roster: 1QB, 1SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 2DB, 2LB, 2DL, 1FLEX
QB M. Stafford, C. Wentz, D. Brees, J. Burrow
RB J. Mixon, E. Elliott, N. Chubb, D. Swift, G. Bernard, B. Scott, S. Phillips
WR D. Hopkins, T. Lockett, Juju, Jefferson, C. Godwin, J. Gordon, G. Davis, P. Williams, M. Boykin, AGG
TE Z. Ertz, H. Henry, D. Goedert, A. O
DB J. Poyer, J. Johnson, J. Simmons
DL D. Hunter, Okwara, H. Landry, D. Lawrence
LB C. Mosley, Z. Cunningham, R. Evans, K. Alexander, P. Queen, T. Adams
2021 2.03, 3.05, 4.04, 4.08, 5.08

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:53 pm

Tough call, with all the uncertainty right now, losing this season would be a big blow for you value wise, and obviously because you lose a year in a win window. IF you believe we will have a season, hold, if you don't, start moving guys like MT and Nuk for some youth.

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Re: When To Sell Studs

Postby FantasyFoosball » Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:36 am

Pretty easy for me. If I’m contending I hold all my guys. If I’m not contending, and guys are starting to age, I sell them. If I have a lot of depth, I’ll sell some studs to upgrade to an elite guy.
Team One:
10 Team Salary Cap League w/ IDP - Est. 2018
2018: Champions!
2019: Champions!!
2020: 2nd Place
.5 PPR/$200 budget
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE, 1 K, 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 3 DL/LB/DB

QB - Mahomes, Cousins
RB - CMC, Carson, Drake, Mostert, Vaughn, Evans, Perine, Penny
WR - MT, Hopkins, Godwin, Woods, Miller, Campbell, Mims, Claypool
TE - Kittle, Goedert, Gesicki, Kmet
K - Gonzalez, Fairbairn, Boswell
DL - Buckner, Heyward, Hendrickson, Clark
LB - Leonard, Wagner, Roquan Smith, Singleton, Hewitt, Greenlaw
DB - John Johnson, Logan Ryan, Jordan Fuller, Wilson

2021 - 1.06, 1.09, 2.04, 4.05
2022 - None

Team Two:
DLF Advice Forum League
14 Team PPR SF/TE Premium (2PPR)
2020: 4th
1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1SF, 2Flex
QB - Allen, Mayfield, Carr, Fromm, Keenum
RB - Murray, AP, Jackson, Booker, Dallas, Snell, Royce Freeman, Armstead
WR - MT, Reagor, Beasley, Perriman, Reynolds, Jackson, Jeffery, G. Davis
TE - Kittle, Andrews, Graham, Fells

2021 - 1.05, 3.05, 4.05


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