Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[FuzzySignificance]

I'm Canadian, and want Hubbard to do well, but I don't see him as a top prospect.

he's going to head into the draft with two consecutive 2k rushing seasons, and will likely weigh in at 215 while running sub 4.4. really doubt he's not going to be a top prospect.

First off, he's not going to weigh in at 215. He is listed at 91 kg, or 200 pounds, basically. Most often, weight is listed generously, in college. In other words, he's more than likely sub 200 right now. He's a day 2 guy at best, IMO in other words, not a top prospect. Almost no chance he's a first rounder.

he's listed at 207lb. you have rb weights exactly backwards, they most often weigh in higher than they're listed, particularly true for mid-lower weight guys, it's advice they pay agents for.

there's very little chance of *any* rb in *any* year going in the first round as teams begin to get better at judging positional value but unless something changes he will almost certainly be top 3 at the position which makes him a top prospect.

[FuzzySignificance]

If he was so great he would have been on an NFL roster today because he wouldn't have returned to school. He won't be running sub 4.4 either.

ignoring the comment about why a redshirt sophmore decides to go back to school vs compete against an historically strong rb class....he a team canada sprinter, ran a 4.3 in hs. he'll run sub 4.4

A lot of people allegedly ran a 4.3 in HS, and then don't at the Combine or Pro Day.

The Redshirt year is irrelevant, all you need is 1 year (especially at RB ask CEH or Jacobs) to display what you can do and that you can perform at the NFL level.

the redshirt year is entirely relevant because it gives him a shorter resume to stack up against a very strong class with a lot more tape/historical production. the dude was headed to the olympics. he'll run sub 4.4 unless he breaks his leg.

[bjd5211]

And yet CEH was the first RB taken in this "historically strong RB class", despite the fact that 99% of this forum had probably never heard of him a year ago today.

Chuba was well known enough, and had enough tape to stack up against this class if he was actually good enough to. He wasn't so he went back to school.

He'll end up running 4.42 - 4.45

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

It's telling that what seems like all of the top 5 RBs are guys that returned to school this past year (Etienne, Chuba, Harris, Verdell, Hill).
Maybe Zamir White is the exception there. Are there no other good true junior RBs next year? Looking at recruiting rankings, I guess it makes sense. There were twice as many 4/5 star prospects in the 2017 recruiting class vs. 2018 for RBs.
One younger guy I'm intrigued by is RS So Elijah Collins, Michigan State. He has an NFL build at 6'0 217 with good lower body, and produced pretty well on a terrible offense behind a terrible OL. MSU's OL ranked behind even FSU in OL yards created last year

[bjd5211]

It's telling that what seems like all of the top 5 RBs are guys that returned to school this past year (Etienne, Chuba, Harris, Verdell, Hill).
Maybe Zamir White is the exception there. Are there no other good true junior RBs next year? Looking at recruiting rankings, I guess it makes sense. There were twice as many 4/5 star prospects in the 2017 recruiting class vs. 2018 for RBs.
One younger guy I'm intrigued by is RS So Elijah Collins, Michigan State. He has an NFL build at 6'0 217 with good lower body, and produced pretty well on a terrible offense behind a terrible OL. MSU's OL ranked behind even FSU in OL yards created last year

It is a bit odd, but there are likely to be breakout guys who are nobodies radar right now (assuming there's a season obviously).

CEH and Josh Jacobs were complete unknowns and non-factors in draft conversations a year before being 1st round picks and the first RB taken in their respective drafts.

[Johnny Canuck]

Edit

[FantasyFreak]

he's going to head into the draft with two consecutive 2k rushing seasons, and will likely weigh in at 215 while running sub 4.4. really doubt he's not going to be a top prospect.

First off, he's not going to weigh in at 215. He is listed at 91 kg, or 200 pounds, basically. Most often, weight is listed generously, in college. In other words, he's more than likely sub 200 right now. He's a day 2 guy at best, IMO in other words, not a top prospect. Almost no chance he's a first rounder.

he's listed at 207lb. you have rb weights exactly backwards, they most often weigh in higher than they're listed, particularly true for mid-lower weight guys, it's advice they pay agents for.

there's very little chance of *any* rb in *any* year going in the first round as teams begin to get better at judging positional value but unless something changes he will almost certainly be top 3 at the position which makes him a top prospect.

Why would an agent (who they can't pay in college) tell them to list themselves below an ideal weight if they were at a more ideal weight?

CEH, Dobbins and Swift came in at less than their listed weight, Dillon too.

Hubbard is listed at 201 by his own school, ESPN has him at 207.

https://okstate.com/sports/football/ros ... bbard/8959

[FantasyFreak]

I like the looks of Penn St. RB, Journey Brown. He'll be a junior this year. Could have a big year.

[honcho55]

First off, he's not going to weigh in at 215. He is listed at 91 kg, or 200 pounds, basically. Most often, weight is listed generously, in college. In other words, he's more than likely sub 200 right now. He's a day 2 guy at best, IMO in other words, not a top prospect. Almost no chance he's a first rounder.

he's listed at 207lb. you have rb weights exactly backwards, they most often weigh in higher than they're listed, particularly true for mid-lower weight guys, it's advice they pay agents for.

there's very little chance of *any* rb in *any* year going in the first round as teams begin to get better at judging positional value but unless something changes he will almost certainly be top 3 at the position which makes him a top prospect.

Why would an agent (who they can't pay in college) tell them to list themselves below an ideal weight if they were at a more ideal weight?

CEH, Dobbins and Swift came in at less than their listed weight, Dillon too.

Hubbard is listed at 201 by his own school, ESPN has him at 207.

https://okstate.com/sports/football/ros ... bbard/8959

I’ve never looked into this much, but my assumption was that guys came in light to the combine because they trimmed up to do better in the 40 and agility drills.

Anyone else have input here?

[OhCruelestRanter]

he's listed at 207lb. you have rb weights exactly backwards, they most often weigh in higher than they're listed, particularly true for mid-lower weight guys, it's advice they pay agents for.

there's very little chance of *any* rb in *any* year going in the first round as teams begin to get better at judging positional value but unless something changes he will almost certainly be top 3 at the position which makes him a top prospect.

Why would an agent (who they can't pay in college) tell them to list themselves below an ideal weight if they were at a more ideal weight?

CEH, Dobbins and Swift came in at less than their listed weight, Dillon too.

Hubbard is listed at 201 by his own school, ESPN has him at 207.

https://okstate.com/sports/football/ros ... bbard/8959

I’ve never looked into this much, but my assumption was that guys came in light to the combine because they trimmed up to do better in the 40 and agility drills.

Anyone else have input here?

It’s all over the place. Schools frequently list their players as being taller and heavier than they actually are. Then player weights for the combine are a mess. Some guys train to run the 40 and show up lighter than their playing weight. Some do that, and then show up waterlogged for the weigh in hoping to have a few extra lbs on board that they’ll urinate out before the drills.

I think it’s important to remember that weight is a fluid concept- I just finished my morning coffee and I’m about to promptly lose about 1.5 lbs, for example. What I would take away from this is that we can be pretty sure Hubbard is not going to have the bell-cow size to be a Taylor-Barkley-Fournette-Elliot type prospect, so he’ll need a spectacular CEH type landing spot to have that 1.01/early 2nd round startup value. Reading any more into it this far in advance feels like a bad use of your time.

[StripesOfKC]

Why would an agent (who they can't pay in college) tell them to list themselves below an ideal weight if they were at a more ideal weight?

CEH, Dobbins and Swift came in at less than their listed weight, Dillon too.

Hubbard is listed at 201 by his own school, ESPN has him at 207.

https://okstate.com/sports/football/ros ... bbard/8959

I’ve never looked into this much, but my assumption was that guys came in light to the combine because they trimmed up to do better in the 40 and agility drills.

Anyone else have input here?

It’s all over the place. Schools frequently list their players as being taller and heavier than they actually are. Then player weights for the combine are a mess. Some guys train to run the 40 and show up lighter than their playing weight. Some do that, and then show up waterlogged for the weigh in hoping to have a few extra lbs on board that they’ll urinate out before the drills.

I think it’s important to remember that weight is a fluid concept- I just finished my morning coffee and I’m about to promptly lose about 1.5 lbs, for example. What I would take away from this is that we can be pretty sure Hubbard is not going to have the bell-cow size to be a Taylor-Barkley-Fournette-Elliot type prospect, so he’ll need a spectacular CEH type landing spot to have that 1.01/early 2nd round startup value. Reading any more into it this far in advance feels like a bad use of your time.

He doesn't have the wiggle, elusiveness and power CEH does either IMO. All he has CEH beat in is straight line speed and earlier breakout (which matters less for RBs than WRs)

I have watched quite a bit of him at OK State and I will admit he is a fun player to watch, but a linear runner with poor contact balance, little track record as a pass catcher and even less as a blocker--all against Big 12 defenses. Add in that he comes in with a huge workload, and unlike Henry, JT or Zeke, doesn't have the frame to minimize that as an issue--and I expect 3rd round pick in the real NFL Draft

Whether the dynasty community sticks to its current evaluation and props him up to early 1st round rookie draft status like for Montgomery or adjusts him to late 1st position I don't know

[FantasyFreak]

It's telling that what seems like all of the top 5 RBs are guys that returned to school this past year (Etienne, Chuba, Harris, Verdell, Hill).
Maybe Zamir White is the exception there. Are there no other good true junior RBs next year? Looking at recruiting rankings, I guess it makes sense. There were twice as many 4/5 star prospects in the 2017 recruiting class vs. 2018 for RBs.
One younger guy I'm intrigued by is RS So Elijah Collins, Michigan State. He has an NFL build at 6'0 217 with good lower body, and produced pretty well on a terrible offense behind a terrible OL. MSU's OL ranked behind even FSU in OL yards created last year

It is a bit odd, but there are likely to be breakout guys who are nobodies radar right now (assuming there's a season obviously).

CEH and Josh Jacobs were complete unknowns and non-factors in draft conversations a year before being 1st round picks and the first RB taken in their respective drafts.

Maybe Journey Brown steps it up a notch? He had a very promising end to the year.

[FantasyFreak]

I’ve never looked into this much, but my assumption was that guys came in light to the combine because they trimmed up to do better in the 40 and agility drills.

Anyone else have input here?

It’s all over the place. Schools frequently list their players as being taller and heavier than they actually are. Then player weights for the combine are a mess. Some guys train to run the 40 and show up lighter than their playing weight. Some do that, and then show up waterlogged for the weigh in hoping to have a few extra lbs on board that they’ll urinate out before the drills.

I think it’s important to remember that weight is a fluid concept- I just finished my morning coffee and I’m about to promptly lose about 1.5 lbs, for example. What I would take away from this is that we can be pretty sure Hubbard is not going to have the bell-cow size to be a Taylor-Barkley-Fournette-Elliot type prospect, so he’ll need a spectacular CEH type landing spot to have that 1.01/early 2nd round startup value. Reading any more into it this far in advance feels like a bad use of your time.

He doesn't have the wiggle, elusiveness and power CEH does either IMO. All he has CEH beat in is straight line speed and earlier breakout (which matters less for RBs than WRs)

I have watched quite a bit of him at OK State and I will admit he is a fun player to watch, but a linear runner with poor contact balance, little track record as a pass catcher and even less as a blocker--all against Big 12 defenses. Add in that he comes in with a huge workload, and unlike Henry, JT or Zeke, doesn't have the frame to minimize that as an issue--and I expect 3rd round pick in the real NFL Draft

Whether the dynasty community sticks to its current evaluation and props him up to early 1st round rookie draft status like for Montgomery or adjusts him to late 1st position I don't know

As a Raiders fan, I'd love it if the Chiefs could swap CEH for Chuba. CEH is a vastly superior back IMO. Not even close to me.

[Packerland]

It's telling that what seems like all of the top 5 RBs are guys that returned to school this past year (Etienne, Chuba, Harris, Verdell, Hill).
Maybe Zamir White is the exception there. Are there no other good true junior RBs next year? Looking at recruiting rankings, I guess it makes sense. There were twice as many 4/5 star prospects in the 2017 recruiting class vs. 2018 for RBs.
One younger guy I'm intrigued by is RS So Elijah Collins, Michigan State. He has an NFL build at 6'0 217 with good lower body, and produced pretty well on a terrible offense behind a terrible OL. MSU's OL ranked behind even FSU in OL yards created last year

It is a bit odd, but there are likely to be breakout guys who are nobodies radar right now (assuming there's a season obviously).

CEH and Josh Jacobs were complete unknowns and non-factors in draft conversations a year before being 1st round picks and the first RB taken in their respective drafts.

Maybe Journey Brown steps it up a notch? He had a very promising end to the year.

Huge fan of Journey Brown! I think he will have a huge year and blow up the combine with his athleticism. I think he ends up being a top 8 2021 Dynasty Rookie pick.

[StripesOfKC]

It is a bit odd, but there are likely to be breakout guys who are nobodies radar right now (assuming there's a season obviously).

CEH and Josh Jacobs were complete unknowns and non-factors in draft conversations a year before being 1st round picks and the first RB taken in their respective drafts.

Maybe Journey Brown steps it up a notch? He had a very promising end to the year.

Huge fan of Journey Brown! I think he will have a huge year and blow up the combine with his athleticism. I think he ends up being a top 8 2021 Dynasty Rookie pick.

I like him too but this year (if played) will be big for him being in line for more of a feature role. A+ name too