Who is this year’s DJ Chark?

[StripesOfKC]

Title should explain all.
Which second-year WR who fell short of expectations (or barely played at all) his rookie year is going to bounce back in a big way?
Generally it takes WRs 3 years, but lack of production rookie year does hurt a player’s chances of becoming a fantasy relevant option down the line.
Does any Day 1-2 WR from 2019 who disappointed as a rookie have a Chark-like breakout?

[Cameron Giles]

Most likely none of them. Chark was on a team that lost 170 targets from Yeldon and Moncrief leaving the season before and they were always playing from behind. That's basically the recipe for ample opportunity.

I don't think any of those WRs have a similar script in play. Harry is the closest one, so I voted him.

[bjd5211]

Easy answer has to be N'Keal Harry, but I think one of the Arizona WRs, Isabella or Butler, could be more fitting as a more under the radar prospect that breaks out in year 2.

[FantasyFreak]

None

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

I wouldn't include Harry on this list as plenty of people were really high on him coming out and he's going to run away with the vote. He doesn't present much of a buy opportunity like Chark did last year.

Chark was a nice size/speed profile guy with pretty high draft capital that nobody was that in on to begin with. Add to that a WR situation that was fairly up in the air. This all is what piqued my interest as a late round flyer in the rookie draft and then off-season buy.

That all in mind, I'd probably go with Boykin here at the price with low expectations.

[FantasyFreak]

I wouldn't include Harry on this list as plenty of people were really high on him coming out and he's going to run away with the vote. He doesn't present much of a buy opportunity like Chark did last year.

Chark was a nice size/speed profile guy with pretty high draft capital that nobody was that in on to begin with. Add to that a WR situation that was fairly up in the air. This all is what piqued my interest as a late round flyer in the rookie draft and then off-season buy.

That all in mind, I'd probably go with Boykin here at the price with low expectations.

Problem with that is the Jags threw 587 times and the Ravens 440 last year.

[StripesOfKC]

Campbell or Boykin IMO
Harry and Arcega Whiteside were just awful last season
Campbell at least looked decent when on the field and just ended up with some freak injuries. Also I trust Frank Reich as an offensive mind to use him correctly, and Rivers as a checkdown/short passing game artist

Boykin was considered raw like Chark and was off the field rookie year for similar reasons. He still flashed ability as a red zone weapon and I do think the Ravens could be forced to throw more due to defenses adjusting—maybe enough to support a third pass catcher after Hollywood and Andrews

Never liked Isabella much as a complete WR prospect, but he’d be more interesting if not for the Hopkins trade.
Hurd would also be a strong buy if not for the Niners picking Aiyuk

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

I wouldn't include Harry on this list as plenty of people were really high on him coming out and he's going to run away with the vote. He doesn't present much of a buy opportunity like Chark did last year.

Chark was a nice size/speed profile guy with pretty high draft capital that nobody was that in on to begin with. Add to that a WR situation that was fairly up in the air. This all is what piqued my interest as a late round flyer in the rookie draft and then off-season buy.

That all in mind, I'd probably go with Boykin here at the price with low expectations.

Problem with that is the Jags threw 587 times and the Ravens 440 last year.

True but that could easily change. I think the Ravens will end up having to throw more this year as defenses look to stop Lamar better on the ground. FWIW, in 2018, both the Jaguars and Ravens were middle of the pack teams in pass attempts with the latter throwing a bit more.

Decent chance that none of these guys end up doing much this year (Harry likely produces but not necessarily near the levels that would 'bounce back' to how he was viewed a year ago), but the final three options in Isabella, Hurd, and Boykin are probably easily bought on the cheap. For the other guys, owners are likely not wanting to give up yet based on rookie draft capital just a year ago. We'll see.

[FantasyFreak]

I wouldn't include Harry on this list as plenty of people were really high on him coming out and he's going to run away with the vote. He doesn't present much of a buy opportunity like Chark did last year.

Chark was a nice size/speed profile guy with pretty high draft capital that nobody was that in on to begin with. Add to that a WR situation that was fairly up in the air. This all is what piqued my interest as a late round flyer in the rookie draft and then off-season buy.

That all in mind, I'd probably go with Boykin here at the price with low expectations.

Problem with that is the Jags threw 587 times and the Ravens 440 last year.

True but that could easily change. I think the Ravens will end up having to throw more this year as defenses look to stop Lamar better on the ground. FWIW, in 2018, both the Jaguars and Ravens were middle of the pack teams in pass attempts with the latter throwing a bit more.

Decent chance that none of these guys end up doing much this year (Harry likely produces but not necessarily near the levels that would 'bounce back' to how he was viewed a year ago), but the final three options in Isabella, Hurd, and Boykin are probably easily bought on the cheap. For the other guys, owners are likely not wanting to give up yet based on rookie draft capital just a year ago. We'll see.

I don't think so. Not even close to that level. You need to some more math on how great a difference that actually is, and how the Ravens are building their offense. That's a massive difference. Truly. If the Ravens have to throw even close to that many times they have completely failed. Their offense is built around a dual threat run game and their passing is based off that. It's efficiency, not volume, for their pass attack. Lamar is efficient because of their run threat, not because he is a great passer. He is an efficient and highly effective passer within the confines of their system. If they ever built their offensive system around the passing game, it would not work. If they have to pass even close to the amount the Jags did, they are losing a lot of football games, because that means everything they are trying to build has completely gone wrong.

[Factory of Sadness]

There's more than a degree of truth to the post above. There is an important caveat though. If the Ravens are throwing the ball against loaded boxes and few DBs because teams sell out to stop the run, then they will be perfectly happy to take those odds. If teams can shut down their run game without compromising their ability to defend the pass - as happened to the Rams to some degree this year - then yes, they are in trouble. Personally I think that's unlikely as the Ravens were winning with a dominant O-line and the best athlete in the NFL just clowning people in position to tackle him, rather than with smoke and mirrors. I also think Lamar is a lot better as a passer than his reputation might suggest. I wouldn't be surprised if one of Duvernay, Boykin or Proche became relevant this year. I just wouldn't like to guess which one.

[bjd5211]

Campbell or Boykin IMO
Harry and Arcega Whiteside were just awful last season
Campbell at least looked decent when on the field and just ended up with some freak injuries. Also I trust Frank Reich as an offensive mind to use him correctly, and Rivers as a checkdown/short passing game artist

Boykin was considered raw like Chark and was off the field rookie year for similar reasons. He still flashed ability as a red zone weapon and I do think the Ravens could be forced to throw more due to defenses adjusting—maybe enough to support a third pass catcher after Hollywood and Andrews

Never liked Isabella much as a complete WR prospect, but he’d be more interesting if not for the Hopkins trade.
Hurd would also be a strong buy if not for the Niners picking Aiyuk

Harry wasn't awful, he just didn't play until late in the year and wasn't a big part of the offense since he hadn't built up a rapport with Brady which is very important for any receiver playing with him. Harry made several very nice plays in his limited opportunity, but also displayed his inexperience at times, which is why the volume wasn't there.

JJAW was god awful though, DK Metcalf put up basically the same numbers in the playoff game vs Philly (7/160/1) that JJAW did in a full season (10/169/1). Hell Harry was better in just 7 games of action (12/105/2), and he should have had a 3rd TD. He made a great play along the sideline vs KC that was clearly a TD, but the ref incorrectly ruled him out of bounds and NE had used all their challenges so they couldn't get it over turned.

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

Problem with that is the Jags threw 587 times and the Ravens 440 last year.

True but that could easily change. I think the Ravens will end up having to throw more this year as defenses look to stop Lamar better on the ground. FWIW, in 2018, both the Jaguars and Ravens were middle of the pack teams in pass attempts with the latter throwing a bit more.

Decent chance that none of these guys end up doing much this year (Harry likely produces but not necessarily near the levels that would 'bounce back' to how he was viewed a year ago), but the final three options in Isabella, Hurd, and Boykin are probably easily bought on the cheap. For the other guys, owners are likely not wanting to give up yet based on rookie draft capital just a year ago. We'll see.

I don't think so. Not even close to that level. You need to some more math on how great a difference that actually is, and how the Ravens are building their offense. That's a massive difference. Truly. If the Ravens have to throw even close to that many times they have completely failed. Their offense is built around a dual threat run game and their passing is based off that. It's efficiency, not volume, for their pass attack. Lamar is efficient because of their run threat, not because he is a great passer. He is an efficient and highly effective passer within the confines of their system. If they ever built their offensive system around the passing game, it would not work. If they have to pass even close to the amount the Jags did, they are losing a lot of football games, because that means everything they are trying to build has completely gone wrong.

You're keying in too much on a specific detail when my main point was from the perceived value comparison. If I implied that the Ravens might throw over 580 times this year, that was unintentional. All I was saying is that they're likely to throw more in general. A few attempts per game adds up to opportunity, especially when there's no real established number one receiver there outside of "BAL TE" (and one of them is gone now too). Quick review of records shows that over the past 8 seasons, there have only been 16 teams to throw less than the Ravens did this past year. Two a year on average with a couple years nobody throwing that little.

[gopackgo]

Campbell or Boykin IMO
Harry and Arcega Whiteside were just awful last season
Campbell at least looked decent when on the field and just ended up with some freak injuries. Also I trust Frank Reich as an offensive mind to use him correctly, and Rivers as a checkdown/short passing game artist

Boykin was considered raw like Chark and was off the field rookie year for similar reasons. He still flashed ability as a red zone weapon and I do think the Ravens could be forced to throw more due to defenses adjusting—maybe enough to support a third pass catcher after Hollywood and Andrews

Never liked Isabella much as a complete WR prospect, but he’d be more interesting if not for the Hopkins trade.
Hurd would also be a strong buy if not for the Niners picking Aiyuk

[murphysxm]

Assuming Rivers and he mesh, I think Campbell fits Indy so well. He looked good when healthy and is fast as hell

[Ice]

Assuming Rivers and he mesh, I think Campbell fits Indy so well. He looked good when healthy and is fast as hell

Agree.

I actually have Campbell as one of my top Breakout potential WR. Health is a concern but he has the foot quickness to get open early and Rivers makes quick decisions on short to intermediate routes. Campbell projects as a solid slot WR option.