2020 vs 2021 Class

[FantasyFreak]

Lawrence did not have a great year last year, he left a lot to be desired. I think his Freshman year and the expectations moving in, were just too high. Either way, he is almost a lock for 1.01 in 2021, so it will be interesting to see who tanks well enough to grab him. My guess is Jax.

That's my bet as well.

[OhCruelestRanter]

The NFL has evolved argument still doesn't change the fact he will be a significant outlier. He will be at that height, and that matters to some when spending a first round pick. If he's 5 ft 7 and 170 pounds, it IS going to matter to some degree. The NFL isn't touch football yet. A 5 ft 7 or 8 WR is against the odds of being a big time fantasy producer. Doesn't mean he won't but not everybody is willing to spend first round capital on outliers.

If he’s his listed weight of 181, I’m not really concerned. Age 18 breakout, reported sub-4.4 wheels; as long as he has a good 2020 and gets drafted early, he should be fine.

Based on how much added weight and height teams usually add, I'm waiting. I don't think he's 181 pounds. All I'm saying is, if he comes in significantly smaller than those listed weights, he's an outlier. Tavon Austin had sub 4.4 wheels, and I can't find his breakout, but I though it was as a sophomore. I think Moore is better, but regardless, if he's Tavon's size, he's an outlier. That's my point. You will be gambling that he is a guy that we really don't have a lot of successful comps for, and you may win that gamble, but chances are the odds will be worse than some of the other players around his draft slot in your rookie drafts.

FF- go watch this guy's work out videos. Holy crap. Obviously they don't mean anything, but this kid looks like a damn running back. I'll take the over on 181 if that what he looks like come combine time.

[murphysxm]

I think Rondale Moore might be a better college player than NFL player. If he comes in a t 5ft 7 or 5 ft 8, which is likely, he will be against the odds. He would be a massive outlier. Not saying he can't be successful, but I'd have a tough time spending a first round rookie pick on him at that point.

I am 6'5", I was at a same charity event as Moore. There is no way this dude is 5'7". I actually thought he looked closer to 5'10". Either way the kid is ripped and I have no concenrns about him competing at the next level. I agree he won't be a #1 or the focal point of an offense, but he will be a factor IMO.

[jenkins.math]

All of this "Lawrence didn't have a good year" is solely based around his last game. He was statistically better in every single category as a sophomore vs his freshman season. Granted he did increase his interception total from 4 to 8 on the season, but that is the only thing that got worse.

He still has plenty of work to do, but you guys are acting like he had a Jordan Love type regression when that is simply not true at all.

[FantasyFreak]

All of this "Lawrence didn't have a good year" is solely based around his last game. He was statistically better in every single category as a sophomore vs his freshman season. Granted he did increase his interception total from 4 to 8 on the season, but that is the only thing that got worse.

He still has plenty of work to do, but you guys are acting like he had a Jordan Love type regression when that is simply not true at all.

No it isn't. There was talk of it throughout the first half of the year. He did improve in the 2nd half, but his schedule was really not very difficult.

https://withthefirstpick.com/2019/09/30 ... -lawrence/

I also agree with Mel Kiper that he struggled vs Ohio St. until Wade was ejected for targeting. In terms of a prospect, he is one of the better ones in years. Nobody is acting like he had a Jordan Love type regression, you're just making that up.

[FantasyFreak]

If he’s his listed weight of 181, I’m not really concerned. Age 18 breakout, reported sub-4.4 wheels; as long as he has a good 2020 and gets drafted early, he should be fine.

Based on how much added weight and height teams usually add, I'm waiting. I don't think he's 181 pounds. All I'm saying is, if he comes in significantly smaller than those listed weights, he's an outlier. Tavon Austin had sub 4.4 wheels, and I can't find his breakout, but I though it was as a sophomore. I think Moore is better, but regardless, if he's Tavon's size, he's an outlier. That's my point. You will be gambling that he is a guy that we really don't have a lot of successful comps for, and you may win that gamble, but chances are the odds will be worse than some of the other players around his draft slot in your rookie drafts.

FF- go watch this guy's work out videos. Holy crap. Obviously they don't mean anything, but this kid looks like a damn running back. I'll take the over on 181 if that what he looks like come combine time.

I'm not worried about it until next year. I just know historically school heights and weights tend to be higher than reality, so bracing for the reality. I think Moore will be a nice piece in an offense in the NFL, but as it stands now, I do not have a ton of confidence he will be the focal point of it the way he is in college.

[Vcize]

Tua had the best second season of all time though. There are still only like 5 true sophomore/RS freshman seasons better than Lawrence’s year last year. I think you’re placing too much weight on his performance against a team that just had 6 guys from their drafted with more to come. Joe Burrow’s age 21-22 season was full of games like that!

I'm not sure about "better" but there are lots of guys with similar years within their first 2 seasons.

Just off the top of my head Rex Grossman, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Tua, Jameis Winston, Tim Tebow, Aaron Murray, Ryan Mallet, Tim Couch, Johnny Manziel, Jake Fromm, JT Barrett. I'm sure there are tons more.

It wouldn't be a big deal if we were talking about a Sam Darnold level prospect here, but like several people have mentioned in this thread we are talking "once in a generation". He'll be the top pick no doubt, and is a nice prospect. I'm just not convinced he's a part of some universe above the top pick in a typical year like people seem to be treating him.

[Kelldon]

I'm from New Orleans and big fan of Lsu. I really liked Burrow and no doubt he was great last year but I think Lawrence is a better prospect. I think Tua aside from injuries is better as well and that is how a lot of experts felt. I also wonder how much of Burrow's success had to do with Joe Brady.

[Friction]

2021 could be even better than 2020, although it might not quite have the RB depth.

QB: This might be the best QB draft class ever with
Lawrence, Fields and Lance, plus some other talented guys who could elevate their stock.

RB: The big names right now are all guys who elected to stay in school rather than enter this years draft, led by Etienne with Chuba Hubbard and Najee Harris being other prominent names. Etienne might have been the #1 RB if he cane out this year, and was certainly on the same level as the top 4-5 RBs in this class. There are usually guys that emerge at this position so we could get more names in time.

WR: The 2020 class is being called the beat WR class many have seen, but 2021 could be better. J'Marr Chase would have been the #1 WR on many boards if he had been eligible this year, and there are 6-7 other guys who are or could be in the 1st round conversation.

Rashod Bateman
Devonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle
Rondale Moore
Justyn Ross
Amon-Ra St Brown
Tylan Wallace
Chris Olave

And I feel like I'm missing somebody. Even if they all don't reach 1st round status (which obviously they won't) it's safe to say it looks like another quality WR class.

TE: Already has nowhere to go but up from this year, but looks legitimately good this early.

Kyle Pitts and Brevin Jordan could be 1st rounders and are certainly better prospects than anyone this year.

I like Freiremuth (butchered the spelling) the most out of the TEs. I do like the other two you listed also, but he looks like he could have a monster year. Penn State has had some decent players at the position in the past, most recently Gesiecki.

[jenkins.math]

Tua had the best second season of all time though. There are still only like 5 true sophomore/RS freshman seasons better than Lawrence’s year last year. I think you’re placing too much weight on his performance against a team that just had 6 guys from their drafted with more to come. Joe Burrow’s age 21-22 season was full of games like that!

I'm not sure about "better" but there are lots of guys with similar years within their first 2 seasons.

Just off the top of my head Rex Grossman, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Tua, Jameis Winston, Tim Tebow, Aaron Murray, Ryan Mallet, Tim Couch, Johnny Manziel, Jake Fromm, JT Barrett. I'm sure there are tons more.

It wouldn't be a big deal if we were talking about a Sam Darnold level prospect here, but like several people have mentioned in this thread we are talking "once in a generation". He'll be the top pick no doubt, and is a nice prospect. I'm just not convinced he's a part of some universe above the top pick in a typical year like people seem to be treating him.

Baker played 8 games as a freshman, got beat out by Mahomes and then transferred.
Tua barely played at all during his freshman year.
Jameis redshirted his freshman year.
Tebow was basically a running back his freshman year.
Ryan Mallett barely played at Michigan, then transferred after his freshman year.
Manziel redshirted his freshman year.
JT Barrett lost his job after his freshman year.
Darnold redshirted his freshman year.
Tim Couch barely played his freshman year.
Grossman redshirted his freashman year.
Murray redshirted his freshman year.

It's pretty rare what Trevor Lawrence has accomplished in his first 2 years on campus. It's exceptionally rare to do what he did as a true freshman. This reminds me to the draft lead up of Andrew Luck. He was so good for so long that people just started to pick him apart moreso than other prospects. We seem to be in full swing here. I don't like the term "generational" as that means we should see maybe 1 or 2 of those guys in a lifetime. I do think he is a once a decade type prospect at QB though.

[Ice]

Agree on once in a Decade vs Generational. I use the term generational a lot but think in terms of a decade. Generational is technically 30 years.

Noted!

[FantasyFreak]

Interested to see how Chase does this year. Clearly the WR1 in this class as it stands now, IMO. No Burrow, Jefferson, CEH, Burrow and of course Brady. His stats will no doubt dip, but curious how he handles all the extra defensive attention and downgrade in QB play.

Also curious to see how the emergence of David Bell (who I've heard some say will be the better WR) affects Rondale Moore this year.

Want to see if Ross can elevate without Higgins there, and Bateman without Johnson.

I feel the 2021 class hinges on the WR's, as the RB class looks fairly weak in comparison, at the top.

[briank]

2021 on paper looks solid. WR is good again with Chase, Ross, Moore, Bateman, Smith, Waddle, Wallace. Etienne and Harris lead the RBs. QBs are very promising with Lawrence and Fields.

There’s at least one high end tight end too. It might not have as many high end prospects, but I expect another deep class with at least a little bit of everything.

[FantasyFreak]

2021 on paper looks solid. WR is good again with Chase, Ross, Moore, Bateman, Smith, Waddle, Wallace. Etienne and Harris lead the RBs. QBs are very promising with Lawrence and Fields.

There’s at least one high end tight end too. It might not have as many high end prospects, but I expect another deep class with at least a little bit of everything.

This year's TE class sucked. Hard for it to be worse. The RB class looks like the weak link next year.

[briank]

2021 on paper looks solid. WR is good again with Chase, Ross, Moore, Bateman, Smith, Waddle, Wallace. Etienne and Harris lead the RBs. QBs are very promising with Lawrence and Fields.

There’s at least one high end tight end too. It might not have as many high end prospects, but I expect another deep class with at least a little bit of everything.

This year's TE class sucked. Hard for it to be worse. The RB class looks like the weak link next year.

Too early to say that IMO with Harris, Hubbard, Etienne etc.