rookie draft psa: reminder

[FuzzySignificance]

as you head into your rookie drafts, just remember, none of the WRs in this historic class were anywhere near the prospect that Amari Cooper was and while he's a fairly polarizing NFL player, nobody would call him a 'bust'. so, at best, any single prospect from this class has a 50% chance of having the career that he's had.

[FuzzySignificance]

obviously my math here is questionable, but hopefully, you get the point

[FantasyFreak]

Yup. I see a lot of perennial WR2 types in this class. I am not wiling to say I see a perennial WR1. There may be one, just not convinced it's one of the top guys.

[IR1]

Yup. I see a lot of perennial WR2 types in this class. I am not wiling to say I see a perennial WR1. There may be one, just not convinced it's one of the top guys.

This is my thought also, could end up affecting idp drafts, although I'm not sure there is that much 1st tier idp talent either

[CGW]

I bet one will be a future WR1, just no clue who it will be. Too many guys drafted this year for one of them not to be very successful in the league. If you are selling Cooper (or any WR1 in their prime) for a 1.05 or worse pick, you are doing it wrong. The odds of WRs hitting is a gamble in every class.

[Pac_Eddy]

This WR draft is tougher because there's no physically huge guy with speed like AJ Green, Julio, Dez, or Mike Evans. Those guys just felt destined for greatness.

[joeya2001]

Judey to you guys don't feel like he's a WR1?

[Jigga94]

Judey to you guys don't feel like he's a WR1?

Something about his BMI not being overweight enough

[YouMightDieTryin]

Jeudy was supposed to be the best "can't miss prospect of the last decade" and now he'll just be a WR2? I don't buy it. Everyone wants to sell this class short due to the extreme depth it possesses. Saturated market creates the look of less competition. Blah blah blah. There's going to be some stud WR1 that pan out there, but because no one can pick that alpha out of this class they deem them all unworthy.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I bet one will be a future WR1, just no clue who it will be. Too many guys drafted this year for one of them not to be very successful in the league. If you are selling Cooper (or any WR1 in their prime) for a 1.05 or worse pick, you are doing it wrong. The odds of WRs hitting is a gamble in every class.

That's why I moved my mid 1st for 2 early 2nds. Passed on Lamb or Jeudy, but grabbed Reagor and Shenault. I have a terrible track record of trying to figure out good WRs in rookie drafts. I am the idiot who passed on Mike Thomas for Sterling Shephard. And Davante Adams and Allen Robinson for Cody Latimer and Marquis Lee. And Juju for John Ross, and... you get my point.
My rookie draft strategy at this point is: Get a top RB, and if they are not available, trade down for more chances to hit. Especially this year.

[Cameron Giles]

Judey to you guys don't feel like he's a WR1?

Jeudy absolutely has perennial WR1 upside. He won the Biletnikoff as a 19-year-old in the SEC and is one of the best route runners and separators we've seen out of a 1st round WR prospect in a long time. When you are that good at the most important area of being a great WR, the upside is very, very high.

I think there are a number of WRs in this class who can have multiple WR1 seasons.

[Sriracha]

Judey to you guys don't feel like he's a WR1?

Jeudy absolutely has perennial WR1 upside. He won the Biletnikoff as a 19-year-old in the SEC and is one of the best route runners and separators we've seen out of a 1st round WR prospect in a long time. When you are that good at the most important area of being a great WR, the upside is very, very high.

I think there are a number of WRs in this class who can have multiple WR1 seasons.

Agreed that there are a lot of prospects in this class that could jump into the WR1 category; but route running prowess is more a floor trait than ceiling play. Jeudy's the safest WR prospect in this class, no doubt and there's more to his game than route running.. but he fell from generational talent to elite WR prospect after his mediocre combine.

Route running is the QB footwork of WRs-- it can be learned, and matters a lot more when you're not an uber talented player-- no one is going to complain about Mahome's footwork because he has the ability to throw accurately downfield/off base. Brandon Marshall was terrible at routes early on in his career, but 4 years in became one of the best route runners in the NFL. DJ Moore is on a similar career path.

[Cameron Giles]

Judey to you guys don't feel like he's a WR1?

Jeudy absolutely has perennial WR1 upside. He won the Biletnikoff as a 19-year-old in the SEC and is one of the best route runners and separators we've seen out of a 1st round WR prospect in a long time. When you are that good at the most important area of being a great WR, the upside is very, very high.

I think there are a number of WRs in this class who can have multiple WR1 seasons.

Agreed that there are a lot of prospects in this class that could jump into the WR1 category; but route running prowess is more a floor trait than ceiling play. Jeudy's the safest WR prospect in this class, no doubt and there's more to his game than route running.. but he fell from generational talent to elite WR prospect after his mediocre combine.

Route running is the QB footwork of WRs-- it can be learned, and matters a lot more when you're not an uber talented player-- no one is going to complain about Mahome's footwork because he has the ability to throw accurately downfield/off base. Brandon Marshall was terrible at routes early on in his career, but 4 years in became one of the best route runners in the NFL. DJ Moore is on a similar career path.

Of course you can bring up the anomalies like Marshall, who went 4th round, but there aren't a wide amount of examples of bad route runners becoming elite ones. I'm not sure I'd categorize DJ Moore as a bad one when he was a prospect.

If you're an elite route runner, you've already set yourself up for a potentially elite ceiling. It's not like elite athleticism or speed is a requirement to being a great WR. Getting open is the name of the game. Jerry Rice wasn't fast, but his routes were so pristine that his game speed was always significantly faster than his straight line. Ditto for Antonio Brown. If you have speed, athleticism, and the routes, then it's just not fair.

I think Jeudy has the upside to catch 100 passes in a season at some point in his career. Him, Lamb, and a few others have elite upside.

[FantasyFreak]

Jeudy was supposed to be the best "can't miss prospect of the last decade" and now he'll just be a WR2? I don't buy it. Everyone wants to sell this class short due to the extreme depth it possesses. Saturated market creates the look of less competition. Blah blah blah. There's going to be some stud WR1 that pan out there, but because no one can pick that alpha out of this class they deem them all unworthy.

Says who?

Nobody is saying that.

[Pac_Eddy]

I had the 1, 5, and 7 in my draft today. RB fever allowed me to nab Jeudy at 6 and Lamb at 7. I'm quite happy with this.