FantasyFreak wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:48 pm
skinfanjon wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:47 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:17 am
In that case, are you open to critical feedback like myself?
You said this not even a year ago about Miller:
And obviously there were a ton of great WRs in last years draft while Miller went on to disappoint. So my question is: What changed between then and now? What is this spreadsheet you speak of? How did you create it? What does it say about current rookies in this draft class?
Yeah, WRs are his thing like closing out Super Bowl leads is Kyle Shanahans. Last year this dolt was hyping Harry, JJAW, and Isabella as his favorite WRs.
If I was that bad at scouting WRs, I'd probably come up with a purely analytical system too. Unfortunately, you cant trust the cook of this data and it doesnt actually say what he claims it does. He was the loudest and wrong-est last year and now hes just vomiting up a bowl of numbers and claiming they reveal something significant.
Mike, you actually know some things about the RB position and make compelling arguements based on them. But I swear to god, if the two of you start a back and forth your egos are going to rip a hole in the fabric of time and space. In the interest of all humanity please dont go down that road.
On second thought, it would be pretty entertaining and theres nothing else to do....
Can you provide reference?
What I find amusing here, six+ weeks later, is that there's some issue with this, or that it was bad scouting to like N'Keal Harry, or Andy Isabella? JAWS, ehhh, there were justifiable concerns with him that were based on innumerable factors, so I can see that, but Harry had a totally clean bill of health in terms of scouting. His athleticism was right within the window, and we already know that the combine is largely irrelevant when it comes to finding connections w/future success rate other than in how it connects to draft capital (if your combine is good, you will have a better chance at having solid or better draft capital which is what actually matters as opposed to the athleticism that is pushing the capital up), he had the production markers, he had the early breakout age, and he played in a big 5 conference. Isabella's knock was exclusively in terms of his competition, which was essentially garbage, but we also had potentially exculpatory evidence there w/his consistently impressive performances against big 5 squads in out of conference games (of course Corey Davis had that too, but too a much lesser extent).
This is just the kind of thing that I view as revisionist garbage that ignores process. If you miss with good process, and you will, I'm not gonna hate you for it. McLaurin hit, and proved to be a major outlier, but if I or my team consistently made picks of McLaurin's I would lose my ----. It was a bad process pick that hit, so hurrah for that, but far more often than not, if you draft a guy w/a non-existent breakout age, and no foot print of production to speak of, you'll be drafting a bust, like 85-90% of the time. That's not good process w/a third rounder in the real NFL or in Dynasty.
Still, you'll see some strut back and forth over their McLaurin pick, while I'll just shake my head. Great lucky pick, but try that again 20 times, and you'll miss on 17-18 of them while I'm collecting all the Chris Godwin and Juju shares instead which had good process behind them as post-round 1 steals in a lot of drafts and will hit far more often than just 1-3 times out of 20 that guys with McLaurin's profile will hit. The one less to take there in a McLaurin is what one should be looking at, instead of ripping on Harry or Isabella. What were his selling points? Captain, leader, whatever? Nice, but I've seen innumerable guys with character who sucked. What else? Guy hidden by a giant pile of talent in front of him? Well, now that's actually interesting because we've got Ruggs coming through w/a similar issue but not as dramatic in scale (what do we make of his lack of production?, is the third best WR on Alabama in 2019 really the best WR in the '20 NFL Draft as the Raiders seemed to imply? Seems unlikely), and you've also got the importance of draft capital. The Redskins used a top 80 pick on him, not a dead zone pick like with Harmon (where the hit rate is even worse than the hit rate of guys with McLaurin's profile), the redskins had the need and playing time to give as well, so while the situation wasn't good, the opportunity was 50% good (plenty of snaps available, if not talent at QB). So file away the hidden little positives for McLaurin, draft capital, still the most valuable part of a profile, and opportunity, and a situation in college that would bury most receivers anyway, not hard to show out at ASU or at UMASS as compared to Ohio State or heck, even Ole Miss.
This is simply my long winded way of saying a few things, the most important of which are, good process misses aren't a problem, they're a reminder to be humble, and to dig into why you missed, and to not render a fundamental verdict on guys after 1 season, and to use good process in your evaluations, and always be open and flexible in your thinking.
I got AJ Brown everywhere last year, but I also had a lot of Harry. I got McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon all over in '17 in round 1, but I also tried to buy up Davis on the cheap in '18 and stupidly sold all McCaffrey within a year or so of getting him.
I Nailed Chubb, and DJ Moore all over in '18, but I also ended up with a half dozen shares of Michel, and had to dump shares all over the place before the '19 season started while he still carried a reasonable return (successful with all but one share which I sold in February at a huge loss).
This is a complicated game, get some good process, always be open and flexible when it comes to learning and improving on what you do, be humble if you can or at least funny if you can't, and try to own your foibles and your mistakes as you also celebrate your successes. As I say these things I know I can fail at them across the board (especially with my loathing of tape grinding/scouting, appeals to NFL Authority after they've proven totally inept at drafting for decades etc) so humility is definitely a work in progress in some ways lol.