Aaron Jones...sell??

[mnpacker]

Can we get thoughts on a value for Jones? Would people buy/sell him for 1.08?

I would like people's input on this, as well. What is the lowest you would sell for right now?

[Paul717]

Can we get thoughts on a value for Jones? Would people buy/sell him for 1.08?

I would like people's input on this, as well. What is the lowest you would sell for right now?

I'd consider it at 1.08. Would much prefer something like 1.05-1.06 though.

[JoshGordonsDealer]

In a SF, I'd move him for Burrow, Tua, Taylor, CEH regardless of team. If I was rebuilding or simply didn't need Jones' production, Dobbins, Akers, and probably Swift would be considerations as well. So, 1.04-1.07 depending on my team.

[DLF3000]

As a contender, I still can't see selling him unless it's a top 3 pick. Got me within a Lamar Jackson lambasting of winning back to back 'ships.

Then again, LaFleur is one of those coaches that I don't trust. This year's draft alone is exhibit A.

[moishetreats]

As you can see from my roster, team 1 in sig, my RB stable is lacking. I was able to ride Jones and Mostert to the championship last year, but feel I got lucky. I probably should have tried to sell Jones pre-draft, but was concerned about what it would leave me...and thought more along the lines of trying to add RBs instead of selling. I'll put some feelers out, but will probably end up holding.

What is the lowest you would sell Jones for at this point?

I hear ya'! The reminder is that you don't need to add RBs in April; you to have added them by September.

In other words, if the goal is have a more complete stable of RBs by September, you're making one of likely moves now. Even if trading away Jones feels backwards, it's not. You want RBs other than Jones in September, and that involves both buying and selling. By selling Jones, you acquire the assets needed to then trade for the RBs that you do want.

As a practical case-in-point, for Team 2 in sig., I traded AWAY Rivers and Jones before the draft, getting one WR in return (and cap space) in each trade. In doing so, I made my team much more imbalanced: I had three viable QBs (SF), three RBs, five WRs, and two TEs. In other words, I was set! But I was excited to get the players that I got, move on from players whom I thought were at the top of their value, and get cap space. Those new assets -- the players that I got in return and the cap space -- should (in theory!) help me acquire more valuable and better-performing players than the ones I gave up. Yes, it's a bit of gamble, but fantasy football off-seasons are in many ways about acquiring talent and assets far more than about constructing a balanced roster. There's plenty of time for that.

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As for Jones for 1.08 in a one-QB league, I think that's a tad light depending on your board. Don't forget: Jones should still be a productive RB2 (more accurately, a hit-or-miss player with a good number of RB1 games and good number of less effective games). I'd need a better prospect and/or a flex-worthy player in addition and/or more picks on top of that to move Jones.

[Hjorimir]

I think Aaron Jones is a talented RB. Unless you get a sweet offer, I think it's probably better to just hold on to him and see where he lands post GB.

[Johnny B. Goode]

too late to sell now. missed your sell high window

[zeeshan2]

JJ here has a good thread on it; do you agree?

https://twitter.com/LateRoundQB/status/ ... 1285103616

[ericanadian]

This isn’t the same Green Bay management that never paid RBs, so I’m not sure why people are talking about Jones like he’s for sure leaving as an FA. I think LaFleur is trying to recreate the Henry/Lewis tandem he had in Tennessee. He tried to do it with Williams/Jones last year, but Williams isn’t very good. While its no sure thing that they extend Jones, I don’t think he’ll break the bank in this environment and I can absolutely see Green Bay paying him and running a tandem. A lot of rumours seem to point towards a more run heavy system and less reliance on Rodgers and two capable RBs would be a step towards that.

[Hjorimir]

I wouldn't say Jones is "for sure" leaving, but I think that's the likely result. It has less to do with GB in particular and more about the current zeitgeist regarding RB contracts throughout the NFL. It's become a devalued position and one that is considered highly replaceable as a rule. Sure, super-elite talents will get their big extensions, but I wouldn't look to that as the likely outcome.

[Shankopotamus]

Can't even get a first for him in my league and he was the #2 rb last year. The rookie fever is too strong right now.

[ericanadian]

I wouldn't say Jones is "for sure" leaving, but I think that's the likely result. It has less to do with GB in particular and more about the current zeitgeist regarding RB contracts throughout the NFL. It's become a devalued position and one that is considered highly replaceable as a rule. Sure, super-elite talents will get their big extensions, but I wouldn't look to that as the likely outcome.

For sure, but running backs are also aware of this and not all of them are demanding top tier pay on long term contracts. If Jones is looking for $10-12M a year over four years, he’s going to be disappointed. If he’s look $6-8M per year for two to three years, I think that’s pretty doable.

[Jfever]

If I’m contending, I’m not thinking of moving him. I can see his tds dropping but even if they drop by 50%, he is still likely to score 10+ tds, and in ppr, likely catch 40-50 balls. He a near lock to be a solid rb2 with big game upside. Lots of folks are sour on him here but in my opinion he is a hold. Ride him out and reap the points. If your hell bent on selling, do so mid season when his value will get you much more in return. I own him in one of my leagues and his salary cap hit is incredibly cap friendly and he is likely my rb2 or 3. I’m holding as I see that team as a strong contender.

My salary cap Core team made up of;
Mahomes, Kamara, A.Jones, M.Sanders, Nuk, M.Evans, Hollywood Brown, Mike Williams,Ertz.

Own the 1.02,1.04,2.02,2.04,2.07

A.Jones - is quite valuable depending on ones roster is my point. I’d hold.

[dustyroads]

After reading this thread and depending on the temperature of your league, I'd say Jones would actually be a buy. If he's being valued/offered at 1.08 and you are a competing team, I'd be smashing the accept button. People are quick to call for major TD regression, meanwhile ignoring his TD per touch rate in 2018. He was still scoring at a rate of ~ 1 per every 17 touches, so last years ~ 1 per every 15 touches could definitely regress; but I don't see it being cut in half. And even if it is for some reason, take away 9.5 of his 19 TDs, he still would have finished RB8 on the year. People have been overreacting his "definite regression" and baked it into his value pre-draft, and if GB taking Dillon pushes his value even lower, he's a definite buy candidate imo. Especially on a team that STILL has not given Rodgers another WR weapon.

[Johnny Canuck]

Pre draft I traded him for Gallup, Mayfield, and Sony...Gallup and AJ were the big pieces of this deal and obvs both took a hit post draft.

I'm happy with the trade overall, because I wanted to diversify the asset. Also, all three of those guys were offseason trade targets for me.

I think AJ will be fine this season, but I wouldn't expect more than a RB12 at best (and likely more of a RB16 finish). AJs big boom game was when Jamaal Williams was out. LaFleur has said he doesn't want a bellcow, and he wants 3 RBs. AJs RB finish last yr was propped up by a ton of TDs...But now there is a viable option at the GL in Dillon. Just don't see those boom games happening that much this yr, and him regressing to his more predictable production output.

If you simply take out that one crazy 45 pt game, AJs ppg goes down to 14.2 pts and RB14 on a ppg basis (0.5 ppr). That's with some RBs that we expect to take a jump ahead, specifically: Jacobs, Drake, Mixon, CEH, Sanders, etc.

Based on that, I think RB14 in 2020 is pretty reasonable, and I would sell for a late first because who knows what type of contract he will get next offseason with him, Conner, Mack, Drake, Gurley, Fournette, Hunt, Henry, all potentially looking for new homes and a new batch of rookies coming in.