Aaron Jones...sell??

[Vcize]

Not really. He had 303 carries, which is a lot, but Chubb and CMC Zeke etc. were in the same ball park. He was extremely efficient as well. 5.1 YPC. There have been tons of RB's with more carries in a year, but I think people know DH is going to be the focal point of an offense for the next few years, and he's arguably the best runner in the league right now, so I really can't blame anyone having him as a top back.

This. I have this strange feeling that if Jones fumbled or did something dumb he would be dropped for J. Williams in an instant. I know it probably wouldn't happen but lack of draft capital on Jones will always be there. With Henry, I'm not even sure who his backup is and TEN is committed to the run. GB loves to phase the run out when they are behind and let Arod throw it 50 times.

Also, Henry is a tank out there. I can't remember a RB of his size running as fast as he does.

Jones dropped an easy catch and fumbled in like his first 3 touches of a game near the end of the season and they went straight back to him to have a huge game. GB finally realise that Williams just isn't as good and they know what they have in Jones. I don't know if he will ever have a better season but it did seem like GB gave up on the 50/50 share and went with Jones and can't see them turning around next year and going back.

Touches over the last 4 games.

Jones: 25, 27, 22, 17
Williams: 9, 8, 2, 5

That is a pretty normal split for a lead/feature back. The pessimist in me thinks GB probably knows that Jones is a zillion times better but doesn't want to overwork him during the meat of the regular season. The optimist says maybe this will be the new normal.

Either way, Jones was a monster this year even with Williams getting a decent amount of work during the meat of the season.

[Kmani6]

Williams pass protection was significantly better than Jones for the beginning portions of their careers. That was really important for protecting Rogers. On the other hand, Jones has gotten injured twice in his first two years, and sustained some big injuries in college as well. So likely as mentioned above incorporating Williams is a great way to keep Jones fresh.

[mnpacker]

I'm wondering how people feel about Aaron Jones? As a Packer fan, I like him (duh). However, I have some concerns.

1. I doubt he will score as many TD's not year.
2. He is a free agent after the 2020 season. GB doesn't typically pay to keep their RB's. Will he get another gig or just fade away.
3. GB drafted AJ Dillon. I know he's not much of a pass-catching RB, but he and J.Williams can take a bunch of the workload.

So, my questions are, is now a good time to sell? and, what is a fair price?

[AussieMate]

I've been trying to sell him for months with no avail, this certainly doesn't help.
He's not brown bread but definitely takes a hit, I think he's good enough to get another gig in 2021somewhere but it'll probably be another committee with a worse QB.

[UkColt]

I think you're picking the worst time to sell to be honest. I'd hold him this year, because I think he's clearly the best back on that team and even if they aren't committed to him long term I think he'll still hold more value on a new team or midway through this season than he does immediately after the draft.

[abloom]

Should have sold before the draft. Now you probably have to wait until he moves on next year to get the same value or trade him to a contender during the season.

[MEuRaH]

Yes, sell if you can because of all the reasons you stated.

However, it's going to be tough. The information you know is the same stuff everyone else knows.

If selling doesn't work, try to draft AJ Dillon.

[CGW]

I think you have time, but you definitely missed your window to realize max value. I think Jones will still be a major part of the offense in 2020. Dillon may not even grasp the offense or do enough to earn time early in his rookie campaign.

I would still be selling but don't panic and sell for peanuts. He is still going to have some blow up games. If he has those early on, his value should jump back up a bit.

I agree on your 2021+ outlook. They will probably not be keeping him around.

[hockeyBjj]

Don't sell now, everybody has all that same information

Sell him during the season when it starts and Jones is still the lead back for the first however many weeks before it becomes committee hell. Aaron Jones won't be a Packer 2021, and who knows where he'll end up.

[JoshGordonsDealer]

Jones is a sell if you can sell for low end RB1 prices. He's a hold if not.

He's not going to have another 2 billion touchdown season but at the very worst he'll be the lead back in a system that had him finish as the RB2 last season. If I'm competing, I'm tentatively planning to ride it out and see what happens. I expect another strong season. If I'm rebuilding and got caught with this hot potato, I'm holding and selling to a competitor who losses a RB in the first 6 weeks of the 2020 season. Jones will have put up some points and they'll be in need.

It's officially that time of year when upside and youth are the top two desirable traits in a Dynasty Football asset. Around week 3 or 4 when people realize that AJB, CeeDee Lamb, and [insert rookie RB in a committee] won't win them a championship like they thought on April 27, 2020, points scored will be the top trait. That's when you sell Jones, not now when people think AJ Dillon will obviously become the league leader in rushing. Hyperbole, but the point stands.

[moishetreats]

Yes... and Yes...

Yes, as others noted, the optimal sell window has closed. (I moved him about ten days before the draft for B. Cooks and 1.06. I "undersold" then by almost all accounts, but I correctly suspected that the Packers would pick a big-time RB early.)

That being said, yes, it still might be a good time to sell now. Here's why:

Which is more likely:
-Aaron Jones starts of the season as the workhorse running back, putting up RB1 numbers like last year and keeping AJ Dillon to little more than a change-of-pace RB?; or
-Aaron Jones is highly productive by NFL standards but ends up productive on a game-by-game basis depending on matchup with AJ Dillon producing closer to a 1A than a 2?

Add in that LaFleur wants an SF-type rushing attack, and it's hard to see Jones dominating in 2020 even before the draft let alone after it. Now, it's true that Jones is a free agent after 2020, but holding him all year in the hopes that (a) he stays productive and healthy AND (b) goes to a different team where he will be a bell-cow RB seems unwise. He's not a bell-cow RB.

Put all that together, and I could see Jones' value going down during the season itself. You're selling at a loss now compared to one or two weeks ago, but that's irrelevant. The question is whether you are getting the best that you can NOW -- not in the past.

If you can still get an offer that is even 80% of his pre-draft value, then I think that Jones is an easy sell. I'm not quite sure that I'd move him for 50% of his value -- since he still should be productive and a legit RB2 in fantasy. But I would certainly be exploring moving him, hyping the narrative that LaFleur drafted Dillon as insurance in case Jones leaves in 2021 and that he plans to run the ball a TON more, so Dillon getting a lot of touches only minimally affects Jones. Tough sell but doable.

Good luck!

[mnpacker]

As you can see from my roster, team 1 in sig, my RB stable is lacking. I was able to ride Jones and Mostert to the championship last year, but feel I got lucky. I probably should have tried to sell Jones pre-draft, but was concerned about what it would leave me...and thought more along the lines of trying to add RBs instead of selling. I'll put some feelers out, but will probably end up holding.

What is the lowest you would sell Jones for at this point?

[Cameron Giles]

Never a bad idea to sell an RB without long-term security who isn't elite. Also, Jones isn't scoring 19 touchdowns again next year.

[SkinzFan]

Sell after his first elite game, unless someone comes at you wanting to buy him

[Factory of Sadness]

Can we get thoughts on a value for Jones? Would people buy/sell him for 1.08?