RB Analysis Part Two (RB5-RB8) Plus Top 8 Rank So Far

[MEuRaH]

How far off is Akers from your top 4?

So far. He's not even near those top 4. I will not be drafting him.

[OhCruelestRanter]

How far off is Akers from your top 4?

So far. He's not even near those top 4. I will not be drafting him.

So then are you buying Henderson on the cheap? Somebody on LAR has to get some volume, no?

[MEuRaH]

How far off is Akers from your top 4?

So far. He's not even near those top 4. I will not be drafting him.

So then are you buying Henderson on the cheap? Somebody on LAR has to get some volume, no?

For this year, sure. Somebody had to be the leading ball carrier for the Dolphins last year too. Opportunity can only do so much for me. I'm not going after either of these guys. It'll be a guessing game for 2020 and beyond. I don't think either of these guys will be the lead back in 2 years... heck, maybe even by next year.

I think both guys are very similar. Both guys will have a game or two where they have great stats. I don't think either guy will be someone anyone will feel comfortable starting day in and day out.

[blemly]

You want an Antonio Gibson review? Because I have an Antonio Gibson review!

This kid is special. I do think he transitions to an RB at the NFL level, but I'm not concerned if he stays at WR either. Gibson is an uber-athletic playmaker that you want to get the ball to regardless.

Cons:
- Gibson saw limited touches at either the RB/WR position (33 rushes and 56 targets in 2019).
- We really only have 2019 to go off of. In this regard he is a complete black box project and will likely need to go to a team that is willing to use him correctly.
- Given those limited targets, he isn't a polished route runner. He shows some wiggle in separating from press coverage and frequently beat corners (cough cough in the ACC).
- Average hands. Has a tendency to let the ball come to him and/or "breadbasketing" balls rather than catching it with his hands. Still, I'm not overly concerned and think this can be improved upon over time.

Pros:
- 4.39' 40 time with a 6'0" 228 lb. frame. Gibson has legitimate burners and he uses them to make explosive plays. For example, of his aforementioned 56 targets, Gibson caught 38 of them. Add that to his 33 rushes and we only have 71 plays on offense where Gibson had the ball in his hands. He turned those into 12 touchdowns. Twelve. He is explosive in every sense of the word. For the 2019 season Gibson ended up with 71-1104-12 as his statline. He averaged 15.5 yards/touch. Even in the ACC this is absurd.
- Dynamism dynamism dynamism. For a fringe day 2 prospect it is important to find ways to get on the field. Gibson is probably the 2nd most dynamic player in this class behind only Lynn Bowden out of Kentucky. He returns kicks (23-645-1 last year), punts, lines up at WR, and can play RB. In short, it will be hard to keep him off the field.
- Decisive, willing runner with good-great contact balance. It isn't easy tackling a 6' 228lb runner, but for his limited touches Gibson's tape shows that he is especially hard to bring down. There is one play vs. SMU last year that shows this extremely well, where he is hit at the line of scrimmage by an SMU player coming off the edge. The guy turns Gibson around but he keeps churning his legs and is eventually able to shed him and another player coming into help. Having basically slowed to a stop, he is then able to take 3 steps and make a hard inside cut to elude a third defender and then he turns on the burners to take it another 50 or so yards for the TD.
- It isn't hard to explain away his limited production. In 2016-17, Anthony Miller was a WR for Memphis. In 2017-18, Gibson competed with Tony Pollard and Darrel Henderson for touches. And even this past year in 2019, he competed for touches with Kenneth Gainwell, who in my opinion will be the best NFL prospect between him, Pollard, and Henderson (231-1459-13 and 51-610-3 splits as a redshirt sophomore). Despite all of this pro talent around him, Memphis (finally in 2019) found ways to get him the ball.

Comps:
Floor: Cordarrelle Patterson.
I don't hate Patterson, just think he was before his time. Still, his electric big play ability has kept him in the league to this day, despite being a bust by many.

Ceiling: more dynamic Deebo Samuel.
He doesn't have quite the route running chops that Deebo has (or at least hasn't had the opportunity to show it), but he has better vision and more burst as a runner than Deebo. He will need to land on a team that is a good fit where the staff is willing to scheme plays for him, but I'm willing to stick my neck out and say this is a player that even the most laid back of fantasy players will know about in a couple years.

Wanted to follow up on this after the draft. My man got his draft capital at no. 66 overall to Washington! There's also opportunity there. Can't wait to see how he is deployed.

[Sriracha]

You want an Antonio Gibson review? Because I have an Antonio Gibson review!

This kid is special. I do think he transitions to an RB at the NFL level, but I'm not concerned if he stays at WR either. Gibson is an uber-athletic playmaker that you want to get the ball to regardless.

Cons:
- Gibson saw limited touches at either the RB/WR position (33 rushes and 56 targets in 2019).
- We really only have 2019 to go off of. In this regard he is a complete black box project and will likely need to go to a team that is willing to use him correctly.
- Given those limited targets, he isn't a polished route runner. He shows some wiggle in separating from press coverage and frequently beat corners (cough cough in the ACC).
- Average hands. Has a tendency to let the ball come to him and/or "breadbasketing" balls rather than catching it with his hands. Still, I'm not overly concerned and think this can be improved upon over time.

Pros:
- 4.39' 40 time with a 6'0" 228 lb. frame. Gibson has legitimate burners and he uses them to make explosive plays. For example, of his aforementioned 56 targets, Gibson caught 38 of them. Add that to his 33 rushes and we only have 71 plays on offense where Gibson had the ball in his hands. He turned those into 12 touchdowns. Twelve. He is explosive in every sense of the word. For the 2019 season Gibson ended up with 71-1104-12 as his statline. He averaged 15.5 yards/touch. Even in the ACC this is absurd.
- Dynamism dynamism dynamism. For a fringe day 2 prospect it is important to find ways to get on the field. Gibson is probably the 2nd most dynamic player in this class behind only Lynn Bowden out of Kentucky. He returns kicks (23-645-1 last year), punts, lines up at WR, and can play RB. In short, it will be hard to keep him off the field.
- Decisive, willing runner with good-great contact balance. It isn't easy tackling a 6' 228lb runner, but for his limited touches Gibson's tape shows that he is especially hard to bring down. There is one play vs. SMU last year that shows this extremely well, where he is hit at the line of scrimmage by an SMU player coming off the edge. The guy turns Gibson around but he keeps churning his legs and is eventually able to shed him and another player coming into help. Having basically slowed to a stop, he is then able to take 3 steps and make a hard inside cut to elude a third defender and then he turns on the burners to take it another 50 or so yards for the TD.
- It isn't hard to explain away his limited production. In 2016-17, Anthony Miller was a WR for Memphis. In 2017-18, Gibson competed with Tony Pollard and Darrel Henderson for touches. And even this past year in 2019, he competed for touches with Kenneth Gainwell, who in my opinion will be the best NFL prospect between him, Pollard, and Henderson (231-1459-13 and 51-610-3 splits as a redshirt sophomore). Despite all of this pro talent around him, Memphis (finally in 2019) found ways to get him the ball.

Comps:
Floor: Cordarrelle Patterson.
I don't hate Patterson, just think he was before his time. Still, his electric big play ability has kept him in the league to this day, despite being a bust by many.

Ceiling: more dynamic Deebo Samuel.
He doesn't have quite the route running chops that Deebo has (or at least hasn't had the opportunity to show it), but he has better vision and more burst as a runner than Deebo. He will need to land on a team that is a good fit where the staff is willing to scheme plays for him, but I'm willing to stick my neck out and say this is a player that even the most laid back of fantasy players will know about in a couple years.

Wanted to follow up on this after the draft. My man got his draft capital at no. 66 overall to Washington! There's also opportunity there. Can't wait to see how he is deployed.

Yes, yes he did. I just wish he wasn't drafted to WSH... If Guice stays healthy that puts a cap on his ceiling; unless they transition him to WR-- which is good for them, but bad for fantasy

[FantasyFreak]

You want an Antonio Gibson review? Because I have an Antonio Gibson review!

This kid is special. I do think he transitions to an RB at the NFL level, but I'm not concerned if he stays at WR either. Gibson is an uber-athletic playmaker that you want to get the ball to regardless.

Cons:
- Gibson saw limited touches at either the RB/WR position (33 rushes and 56 targets in 2019).
- We really only have 2019 to go off of. In this regard he is a complete black box project and will likely need to go to a team that is willing to use him correctly.
- Given those limited targets, he isn't a polished route runner. He shows some wiggle in separating from press coverage and frequently beat corners (cough cough in the ACC).
- Average hands. Has a tendency to let the ball come to him and/or "breadbasketing" balls rather than catching it with his hands. Still, I'm not overly concerned and think this can be improved upon over time.

Pros:
- 4.39' 40 time with a 6'0" 228 lb. frame. Gibson has legitimate burners and he uses them to make explosive plays. For example, of his aforementioned 56 targets, Gibson caught 38 of them. Add that to his 33 rushes and we only have 71 plays on offense where Gibson had the ball in his hands. He turned those into 12 touchdowns. Twelve. He is explosive in every sense of the word. For the 2019 season Gibson ended up with 71-1104-12 as his statline. He averaged 15.5 yards/touch. Even in the ACC this is absurd.
- Dynamism dynamism dynamism. For a fringe day 2 prospect it is important to find ways to get on the field. Gibson is probably the 2nd most dynamic player in this class behind only Lynn Bowden out of Kentucky. He returns kicks (23-645-1 last year), punts, lines up at WR, and can play RB. In short, it will be hard to keep him off the field.
- Decisive, willing runner with good-great contact balance. It isn't easy tackling a 6' 228lb runner, but for his limited touches Gibson's tape shows that he is especially hard to bring down. There is one play vs. SMU last year that shows this extremely well, where he is hit at the line of scrimmage by an SMU player coming off the edge. The guy turns Gibson around but he keeps churning his legs and is eventually able to shed him and another player coming into help. Having basically slowed to a stop, he is then able to take 3 steps and make a hard inside cut to elude a third defender and then he turns on the burners to take it another 50 or so yards for the TD.
- It isn't hard to explain away his limited production. In 2016-17, Anthony Miller was a WR for Memphis. In 2017-18, Gibson competed with Tony Pollard and Darrel Henderson for touches. And even this past year in 2019, he competed for touches with Kenneth Gainwell, who in my opinion will be the best NFL prospect between him, Pollard, and Henderson (231-1459-13 and 51-610-3 splits as a redshirt sophomore). Despite all of this pro talent around him, Memphis (finally in 2019) found ways to get him the ball.

Comps:
Floor: Cordarrelle Patterson.
I don't hate Patterson, just think he was before his time. Still, his electric big play ability has kept him in the league to this day, despite being a bust by many.

Ceiling: more dynamic Deebo Samuel.
He doesn't have quite the route running chops that Deebo has (or at least hasn't had the opportunity to show it), but he has better vision and more burst as a runner than Deebo. He will need to land on a team that is a good fit where the staff is willing to scheme plays for him, but I'm willing to stick my neck out and say this is a player that even the most laid back of fantasy players will know about in a couple years.

Wanted to follow up on this after the draft. My man got his draft capital at no. 66 overall to Washington! There's also opportunity there. Can't wait to see how he is deployed.

Yes, yes he did. I just wish he wasn't drafted to WSH... If Guice stays healthy that puts a cap on his ceiling; unless they transition him to WR-- which is good for them, but bad for fantasy

He was listed as a WR and wants to play WR, so he's not really transitioning. If he becomes a RB, he'd be transitioning.

[moishetreats]

CEH landed amazingly well....

CEH
Dobbins
Swift
JT

Why do you think that KC is great landing spot for immediate production? Every RB with one exception that was a high Andy Reid draft pick has essentially been a backup his rookie year. (The exception being Kareem Hunt, but he was only elevated because Spencer Ware's injury.)

I'm not suggesting that Damien Williams is more talented than CEH, but nothing that Reid has done historically suggests that CEH is going to be a first-year breakout. And he has had other highly-drafted and elite RBs in his time.

I don't think that CEH will be on the bench all season (like Steven Jackson behind Marshall Faulk his rookie year), but I see part-time production as most realistic. In fact, I'd suggest that Swift or Taylor are better rookie year bets. Odds are that CEH might put up more point, but I'm not really interested in points from a second RB on a team. I'd rather hold Swift or Taylor in redraft since they are both likelier to get full-time work during the season.

Again, to be clear, I am asking why you think that KC is an ideal landing spot for a RB to put up great fantasy numbers his rookie season.

Thank you!

[FantasyFreak]

CEH landed amazingly well....

CEH
Dobbins
Swift
JT

Why do you think that KC is great landing spot for immediate production? Every RB with one exception that was a high Andy Reid draft pick has essentially been a backup his rookie year. (The exception being Kareem Hunt, but he was only elevated because Spencer Ware's injury.)

I'm not suggesting that Damien Williams is more talented than CEH, but nothing that Reid has done historically suggests that CEH is going to be a first-year breakout. And he has had other highly-drafted and elite RBs in his time.

I don't think that CEH will be on the bench all season (like Steven Jackson behind Marshall Faulk his rookie year), but I see part-time production as most realistic. In fact, I'd suggest that Swift or Taylor are better rookie year bets. Odds are that CEH might put up more point, but I'm not really interested in points from a second RB on a team. I'd rather hold Swift or Taylor in redraft since they are both likelier to get full-time work during the season.

Again, to be clear, I am asking why you think that KC is an ideal landing spot for a RB to put up great fantasy numbers his rookie season.

Thank you!

Wow. I'm going back and facts checking, and you are not wrong. This tempers my expectations for CEH even more for year 1.

[MEuRaH]

Why do you think that KC is great landing spot for immediate production? Every RB with one exception that was a high Andy Reid draft pick has essentially been a backup his rookie year. (The exception being Kareem Hunt, but he was only elevated because Spencer Ware's injury.)

I'm not suggesting that Damien Williams is more talented than CEH, but nothing that Reid has done historically suggests that CEH is going to be a first-year breakout. And he has had other highly-drafted and elite RBs in his time.

I don't think that CEH will be on the bench all season (like Steven Jackson behind Marshall Faulk his rookie year), but I see part-time production as most realistic. In fact, I'd suggest that Swift or Taylor are better rookie year bets. Odds are that CEH might put up more point, but I'm not really interested in points from a second RB on a team. I'd rather hold Swift or Taylor in redraft since they are both likelier to get full-time work during the season.

Again, to be clear, I am asking why you think that KC is an ideal landing spot for a RB to put up great fantasy numbers his rookie season.

Thank you!

Great question and you bring up great points. The point of view one chooses when analyzing players is key to one's final assessment. You're choosing to use historical information about RBs under Andy Reid to make a decision about CEH. That's not necessarily a bad thing but I think going too far can be detrimental.

I also knew this about Andy Reid, but without looking it up, I do believe that through all those other situations Andy already had a better RB on the roster than Williams and worst draft capital than CEH. This is off the top of my head but that's how I remember it. So that's one reason why this situation doesn't worry me.

Also Williams is terrible. Just horrible. Never rushed for more than 500 yards in 6 years in the NFL and he's not getting any younger. You could have put nearly any RB in that situation and he would have performed at a higher level than Williams managed.

CEH is also an amazing prospect coming out of college. He's already refined his running game. He has great short burst to go along with a skillset that's near the best I've ever seen (SKILL, NOT TALENT). The skills alone put him on a level with very few RBs I've ever scouted.

The fact that he's a PPR guy and playing on an elite offense just makes him the sure 1.01 for me. His talent isn't as good as JT, Dobbins, or Swift, but his skills are so good and the situation is so great that he's going to be the 1.01 for many people. He's one of the few players drafted into a position that he's perfect for.

[Chwf3rd]

Let's hear it @DLF_mikeh

"If by some miracle he (CEH) gets a great landing spot and Swift/Dobbins/Taylor do not, he could vault up to 1.01. Improbable (99% this won't happen) but not impossible."

CEH on the Chiefs your 1.01? Swift a negative landing spot imo. Dobbins and Taylor good ones, but nothing as juicy as Andy Reid's 1st round pick.

CEH landed amazingly well. Dobbins landed well, JT in a good spot, Swift not so much.

All 4 guys deserve consideration at 1.01 tbh. CEH/Dobbins are my top guys. JT/Swift are just a tad behind them.

I'd still draft Swift over JT simply because I don't want to take the gamble on JT. He has more to learn than anyone else and I'd rather have something closer to a finished product like Swift. However, I love JTs coaching staff... that's a huge plus.

CEH
Dobbins
Swift
JT

I guess that's my ranks, but that's just based on immediate production. If I was rebuilding and I owned the 1.01 pick:

Dobbins
Swift
JT
CEH

And then if I was ranking on possible ceiling:

JT
Dobbins
CEH
Swift

Crazy how it changes depending on mindset. I can't even think of another time this happened.

Covering all bases lol

[Zacsby]

Why do you think that KC is great landing spot for immediate production? Every RB with one exception that was a high Andy Reid draft pick has essentially been a backup his rookie year. (The exception being Kareem Hunt, but he was only elevated because Spencer Ware's injury.)

I also knew this about Andy Reid, but without looking it up, I do believe that through all those other situations Andy already had a better RB on the roster than Williams and worst draft capital than CEH. This is off the top of my head but that's how I remember it. So that's one reason why this situation doesn't worry me.

Also Williams is terrible. Just horrible. Never rushed for more than 500 yards in 6 years in the NFL and he's not getting any younger. You could have put nearly any RB in that situation and he would have performed at a higher level than Williams managed.

Duce Staley was averaging like 1500 yards and 7 TDs over 3 seasons before Brian Westbrook replaced him. Westbrook was averaging 1500 yards and 10ish TDs over 6 seasons before being replaced by Shady.

Those are really the only situations that are somewhat applicable. And I would argue that they aren't even really applicable because the production of the guys being replaced blows what Damien Williams has done throughout his career out of the water. Even if that weren't the case, not much of a sample size.

Not the least bit worried about CEH earning touches this year. They (CEH, JT, Swift) all face some level of competition, but I don't think any of them are fighting an uphill battle by any means.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I think the premise of taking any RB because they're going to produce early is prohibitively flawed in a COVID off-season with limited workouts and practices. If you like CEH more because you think he's the better player, or you think he'll produce more in KC, great. But if your take is that you want him because he'll produce more in year one, I'd think harder about how much any rookie is going to produce this year.

[moishetreats]

Thank you FF, Mike, and Zac for the point-counterpoint!

[hockeyBjj]

Let's hear it @DLF_mikeh

"If by some miracle he (CEH) gets a great landing spot and Swift/Dobbins/Taylor do not, he could vault up to 1.01. Improbable (99% this won't happen) but not impossible."

CEH on the Chiefs your 1.01? Swift a negative landing spot imo. Dobbins and Taylor good ones, but nothing as juicy as Andy Reid's 1st round pick.

CEH landed amazingly well. Dobbins landed well, JT in a good spot, Swift not so much.

All 4 guys deserve consideration at 1.01 tbh. CEH/Dobbins are my top guys. JT/Swift are just a tad behind them.

I'd still draft Swift over JT simply because I don't want to take the gamble on JT. He has more to learn than anyone else and I'd rather have something closer to a finished product like Swift. However, I love JTs coaching staff... that's a huge plus.

CEH
Dobbins
Swift
JT

I guess that's my ranks, but that's just based on immediate production. If I was rebuilding and I owned the 1.01 pick:

Dobbins
Swift
JT
CEH

And then if I was ranking on possible ceiling:

JT
Dobbins
CEH
Swift

Crazy how it changes depending on mindset. I can't even think of another time this happened.

Greatly appreciate the response. I’m thinking of trading up from 1.5 to 1.3 to guarantee CeH, Dobbins (I have Ingram So bonus) or JT. Swift Worries me because I don’t trust Patricia not to committee murder him with Kerryon. And you’ve spurned me off the Cam spot. Also don’t think either 1st tier WR go top 4 with how the rookie rbs have been killing it right of of college last few seasons.

[Cult of Dionysus]

I think the premise of taking any RB because they're going to produce early is prohibitively flawed in a COVID off-season with limited workouts and practices. If you like CEH more because you think he's the better player, or you think he'll produce more in KC, great. But if your take is that you want him because he'll produce more in year one, I'd think harder about how much any rookie is going to produce this year.

We are talking about running backs, son.