Post Draft Rankings

[IR1]

Assuming equal scoring on offense and defense, how is everyone ranking the top 10, 12? Where do Young, Simmons, etc fall in?

[stick3925]

Ask and you shall receive …
Here are my post-draft IDP rookie rankings by position (overall rankings at the end).

EGDE Rankings
Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters
1. Chase Young (DE) – Washington - Should be an instant monster. I think he has at least as high of a ceiling as the Bosa brothers.

Tier Two – Very situation dependent. The learning curve for pass rushers can be high and you may have to wait a year before they produce at the NFL level
2. Yetur Gross-Matos (DE) – Carolina - Good pass rusher with 2 very solid seasons of college production. Will likely be in a rotation with Weatherly and Burns, but I anticipate a decent (50% plus) snap rate out of the gate. Position designation should be safe for at least a couple years with the fresh new coaching regime in town.
3. K’Lavon Chaisson (LB?) – Jacksonville - Great athlete with an enormous pass-rush ceiling, but not great college production. Lost a full season to injury and only had one full season as a starter at LSU. Has a clear path to a high snap count right out of the gate. I thought he would be listed as a DE after he was drafted by the Jags, who run a 4/3 scheme, but it looks like they are listing him as an SLB. Chaisson's position is definitely one to monitor as I don't really like his fit as a 4/3 LB.
4. A.J. Epenesa (DE) – Buffalo - Ideal base defensive end, but tested poorly at the combine. Good pass rusher and run defender. I think he dropped farther than he should have in the draft. He’s probably going to see less than 50% of the snaps out of the gate, but I think he could jump ahead of Hughes or Addison for a starting role quicker than some may anticipate.

Tier Three - Day 2 picks who are probably only worth a look if they are drafted in deeper IDP leagues
5. Darrell Taylor (DE) – Has some upside as and was a solid producer in college. I thought the pick was a bit of a reach, but he should see a decent snap rate as long as Clowney doesn’t re-sign in Seattle.
6. Terrell Lewis (LB) – Los Angeles (Rams) - Prototype physical attributes but had injury issues and limited college production. Rams are a very good scenario for immediate playing time and production (I’m not a big believer in Floyd or Ebukam).
7. Julian Okwara (DE) – Detroit - Big upside as a pass-rusher but hasn’t reached his potential. Broken leg ended his senior year. Good situation. Will be competing with his brother Romeo for snaps.
8. Josh Uche (LB) – New England - Savvy pass-rusher with some athletic gifts. Only started one year and had limited college production in that season.

IDL Rankins
Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters but beware that IDL typically takes time to develop. The learning curve for IDL is akin to TEs
1. Derrick Brown – Carolina - Very disruptive and productive against the run and pass; averaged 50 tackles, 10 TFLs and 4 sacks per year over the past 3 seasons.
2. Javon Kinlaw – San Francisco - Physical specimen with decent college production. Replacement for Buckner has big shoes to fill.

Tier Two –You should not count on year one production. These should be considered as developmental picks only
3. Marlon Davidson – Atlanta - Good interior pass rush potential. Production in college was solid (50 games, 174 tackles, 28 TFLs). Should get decent snap numbers pretty quickly with Falcons.
4. Ross Blacklock – Houston - Great upside as an interior pass rusher. Missed 2018 with an achilles injury. Production in 2019 was solid. Path to snaps isn’t great. Texans system hasn’t led to much DL production for anyone other than Watt.
5. Raekwon Davis – Miami - Looks like a prototype IDL. Physical profile is close to DeForrest Buckner but his college production is nowhere close to Buckner’s. Dolphins talent lacking roster represents a good opportunity for immediate playing time.
6. Justin Madubuike – Baltimore - His athletic testing numbers topped everyone I put ahead of him at IDL. His production at A&M was very solid as well. He’s going to have real tough time getting snaps on that talented Ravens D-Line though.



Off-ball LB Rankings
Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters
1. Isaiah Simmons – Arizona - He is the consensus top LB. The Cardinals are saying they will use him in a variety of ways, as they should. Should be an immediate contributor regardless of tackle-heavy or big-play scoring format.
2a. Patrick Queen – Baltimore - Late bloomer, great range but is a bit raw. Should step in as an every down player immediately.
2b. Kenneth Murray – Los Angeles (Chargers) - Excellent run defender but is not good in coverage. Another situation that should lead to an immediate every down job.

Tier Two - Somewhat situation dependent but will probably be day 2 picks that will get decent snap counts year one
4. Jordyn Brooks – Seattle - Productive senior season at MLB (20 TFLs). Could have a tough time getting snaps behind Wagner and K.J. Wright. Keep in mind that Wright is an UFA after this season so Brooks real value should come in 2021 making him more valuable in league you can use a taxi squad spot to red-shirt him in 2020.
5. Logan Wilson – Cincinnati - Tested better than I thought he would. He was also a very productive 4-year starter for Wyoming (400 tackles). I almost put him ahead of Brooks as the Bengals void at ILB represents a huge opportunity void. I may actually move him into tier one if he can make some positive waves in the pre-season (if there is one).
6. Malik Harrison – Baltimore – Very good run defender but looks like he could have issues in coverage. Again lots of opportunity in the Ravens LB room. I could see a scenario where his steady, veteran-like play bumps him ahead of Queen’s flashy style on the initial Ravens depth chart.

Tier Three - Late day 2/early day 3 picks and playing time will be very situation dependent

7. Zach Baun - He played EDGE at Wisconsin but was drafted as an off-ball LB. Very solid and productive all-around player. Doesn’t have the easiest path to high snap count, but it’s not insurmountable either.
8. Willie Gay Jr. – Kansas City – Has all of the physical attributes of a prototype NFL LB, but none of the college production. He was suspended in college for punching a teammate and also for academic fraud. His upside and opportunity for playing time are undeniable though. The Chiefs invested second round draft capitol in him and I expect him to get every opportunity to produce.
9. Akeem Davis-Gaither – Cincinnati - Fast and rangy. I have seen comps to Darius Leonard, but I'm skeptical. Again, the Bengals represent a big opportunity for LB playing time.
10. Troy Dye – Minnesota - Great athlete, durability and frame concerns (too thin). Good production all 4 seasons at Oregon (391 tackles, 41 TFLs). No clear path to playing time. Likely a developmental pick.


DB Rankings
Tier One - Only listing one tier for DBs as they have the lowest positional value and should only be taken at the end of a rookie draft
1. Jeremy Chinn – Carolina - FCS level player who tested through the roof athletically. The only game of his I watched was the Senior Bowl and he didn't look out-matched there or in the practices with the stepped-up competition. Carolina represents a great opportunity for playing time and if he shows out in the pre-season I could actually see listing him as my top rookie DB because he is the only viable SS prospect. The Carolina coaching staff has already hinted at using him as a nickle-LB as well. I've bumped him from #5 to #1 in these positional rankings since the draft.
2. Jeffrey Okudah – Detroit - Might be the best in a recent string of excellent Ohio State CBs. Great tackler with good ball skills. Rookie CBs typically produce best in their rookie seasons as they get tested early and often.
3. Grant Delpit – Cleveland - I had him as my top DB coming into the year, but he didn’t look like the same guy last season after an ankle injury. Hoping his poor tackling in 2019 was just because of that injury. Looks like they are going to play him at FS which hurts his value in tackle heavy formats.
4. Xavier McKinney – New York (Giants) Versatility is his calling card. Can play slot corner or either safety position. Might be best suited as a FS which could hurt his IDP value.
5. Antoine Winfield Jr. – Tampa Bay - Good tackler and even better ball-hawk. Not the most physically gifted, but a very high football IQ. Missed 16 of 36 games the past 2 seasons due to injury. Yet another one of the top DBs that looks like he will be playing FS.

Overall Rankings
Tier One
1. Chase Young (DE)
2. Isaiah Simmons (LB)
3. Patrick Queen (LB)
4. Kenneth Murray (LB) - really 3a.
Tier Two
5. K’Lavon Chaisson (DE)
6. Yetur Gross-Matos (DE)
7. Jordyn Brooks (LB)
8. Logan Wilson (LB)
Tier Three
9. Malik Harrison
10. Jeremy Chinn
11. Derrick Brown
12. Javon Kinlaw

Overall Thoughts
Chase Young and Simmons are easily the cream of the crop. I almost made another tier just for them. The depth of this class is not great. The IDP League I am in we start 2 DL, 2LB and 2 DBs and I only consider the top 8 listed above in my overall rankings as draftable in our 3 round rookie draft.

[LPN]

this is simply ...BRILLIANT stick3925 ! Much appreciated your time and knowledge !!!

[IR1]

Awesome! Now I need to find a way to get a couple more picks!

[stick3925]

Awesome! Now I need to find a way to get a couple more picks!

I don't think I would be too eager to buy buy back into this rookie draft for the IDP talent unless if was for one of the players in tier one of my overall rankings.

[IR1]

Awesome! Now I need to find a way to get a couple more picks!

I don't think I would be too eager to buy buy back into this rookie draft for the IDP talent unless if was for one of the players in tier one of my overall rankings.

Getting rookie fever! Pretty sure Young and Simmons will be gone before my pick (1.09). In a 10 team with heavy idp scoring, hoping to find a gem or two in the third round

[Warwick9]

Simmons went 1.10 in my league and I just took Chase at 2.04

[UkColt]

My IDP draft is due to start in a day or two, so I'll update here when it does. For context, last year Devin White went 1.11, then Devin Bush at 2.05. I took Bosa at 2.08.

[stick3925]

In my league D-Line carries a bit more value than LB. Below is the range I'm projecting for the draftable players in my league's 50 pick rookie draft:

Chase Young 10-12 (selected 11th)
Isaiah Simmons 15-21 (selected 21st)
Patrick Queen 22-29 (selected 23rd)
Kenneth Murray 22-29 (selected 26th)
K'Lavon Chaisson 25-32 (selected 31st)
Yetur Gross-Matos 34-42 (selected 32nd)
Jordyn Brooks 35-45
Logan Wilson 40-50
Derrick Brown 45-50

[stick3925]

I just realized I excluded Willie Gay from my above rankings, which isn't surprising as I'm not very high on guys that can't seem to produce on the field. His opportunity in KC and upside shouldn't be ignored though. I would probably slot him at #8. I will do a quick write up and edit my original post to include him.

[stick3925]

The more research I do on Jeremy Chinn and his situation in Carolina, both how they are talking about deploying him (SS/nickel-LB) and the Panthers lack of better options at the SS position, the more I like him. I'm bumping him up my rankings. He could be a big contributor out of the gate in tackle heavy formats if everything comes together.

[Forza_Azzurri]

I have 1.03 & 1.07 & there's no top tier offensive players that interest me. I really want to trade back from 1.03 to get both Young & Simmons ... I'll take one for sure at 1.07. I'm not sure how I far I can safely drop back and get both. As context last 2 years, Round 1 looked like this from an IDP standpoint:

2018:
1.07 R Smith
1.08 T. Edmunds

2019
1.08 D. Bush
1.09 D. White
1.11 N. Bosa
1.16 C. Ferrell

[stick3925]

I have 1.03 & 1.07 & there's no top tier offensive players that interest me. I really want to trade back from 1.03 to get both Young & Simmons ... I'll take one for sure at 1.07. I'm not sure how I far I can safely drop back and get both. As context last 2 years, Round 1 looked like this from an IDP standpoint:

2018:
1.07 R Smith
1.08 T. Edmunds

2019
1.08 D. Bush
1.09 D. White
1.11 N. Bosa
1.16 C. Ferrell

In the 16 team IDP league I'm in I just took Young at 1.11, last year Bosa went 1.7.
In the aforementioned draft We are currently on pick 16 and Simmons is still on the board. Last year Devin White was the first linebacker taken in 2019 at 1.11.

I think you are definitely in the minority not being interest in the top tier offensive rookie talent this year (there is a LOT of it IMO). That could very well help your cause in seeing these defensive guys slip a bit.

[ckrumm24]

Ask and you shall receive …
Here are my post-draft IDP rookie rankings by position (overall rankings at the end).

EGDE Rankings
Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters
1. Chase Young (DE) – Washington - Should be an instant monster. I think he has at least as high of a ceiling as the Bosa brothers.

Tier Two – Very situation dependent. The learning curve for pass rushers can be high and you may have to wait a year before they produce at the NFL level
2. Yetur Gross-Matos (DE) – Carolina - Good pass rusher with 2 very solid seasons of college production. Will likely be in a rotation with Weatherly and Burns, but I anticipate a decent (50% plus) snap rate out of the gate. Position designation should be safe for at least a couple years with the fresh new coaching regime in town.
3. K’Lavon Chaisson (LB?) – Jacksonville - Great athlete with an enormous pass-rush ceiling, but not great college production. Lost a full season to injury and only had one full season as a starter at LSU. Has a clear path to a high snap count right out of the gate. I thought he would be listed as a DE after he was drafted by the Jags, who run a 4/3 scheme, but it looks like they are listing him as an SLB. Chaisson's position is definitely one to monitor as I don't really like his fit as a 4/3 LB.
4. A.J. Epenesa (DE) – Buffalo - Ideal base defensive end, but tested poorly at the combine. Good pass rusher and run defender. I think he dropped farther than he should have in the draft. He’s probably going to see less than 50% of the snaps out of the gate, but I think he could jump ahead of Hughes or Addison for a starting role quicker than some may anticipate.

Tier Three - Day 2 picks who are probably only worth a look if they are drafted in deeper IDP leagues
5. Darrell Taylor (DE) – Has some upside as and was a solid producer in college. I thought the pick was a bit of a reach, but he should see a decent snap rate as long as Clowney doesn’t re-sign in Seattle.
6. Terrell Lewis (LB) – Los Angeles (Rams) - Prototype physical attributes but had injury issues and limited college production. Rams are a very good scenario for immediate playing time and production (I’m not a big believer in Floyd or Ebukam).
7. Julian Okwara (DE) – Detroit - Big upside as a pass-rusher but hasn’t reached his potential. Broken leg ended his senior year. Good situation. Will be competing with his brother Romeo for snaps.
8. Josh Uche (LB) – New England - Savvy pass-rusher with some athletic gifts. Only started one year and had limited college production in that season.

IDL Rankins
Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters but beware that IDL typically takes time to develop. The learning curve for IDL is akin to TEs
1. Derrick Brown – Carolina - Very disruptive and productive against the run and pass; averaged 50 tackles, 10 TFLs and 4 sacks per year over the past 3 seasons.
2. Javon Kinlaw – San Francisco - Physical specimen with decent college production. Replacement for Buckner has big shoes to fill.

Tier Two –You should not count on year one production. These should be considered as developmental picks only
3. Marlon Davidson – Atlanta - Good interior pass rush potential. Production in college was solid (50 games, 174 tackles, 28 TFLs). Should get decent snap numbers pretty quickly with Falcons.
4. Ross Blacklock – Houston - Great upside as an interior pass rusher. Missed 2018 with an achilles injury. Production in 2019 was solid. Path to snaps isn’t great. Texans system hasn’t led to much DL production for anyone other than Watt.
5. Raekwon Davis – Miami - Looks like a prototype IDL. Physical profile is close to DeForrest Buckner but his college production is nowhere close to Buckner’s. Dolphins talent lacking roster represents a good opportunity for immediate playing time.
6. Justin Madubuike – Baltimore - His athletic testing numbers topped everyone I put ahead of him at IDL. His production at A&M was very solid as well. He’s going to have real tough time getting snaps on that talented Ravens D-Line though.



Off-ball LB Rankings
Tier One - Should be year one (if not be day one) starters
1. Isaiah Simmons – Arizona - He is the consensus top LB. The Cardinals are saying they will use him in a variety of ways, as they should. Should be an immediate contributor regardless of tackle-heavy or big-play scoring format.
2a. Kenneth Murray – Los Angeles (Chargers) - Excellent run defender but is not good in coverage. Another situation that should lead to an immediate every down job.
2b. Patrick Queen – Baltimore - Late bloomer, great range but is a bit raw. Should step in as an every down player immediately.

Tier Two - Somewhat situation dependent but will probably be day 2 picks that will get decent snap counts year one
4. Jordyn Brooks – Seattle - Productive senior season at MLB (20 TFLs). Could have a tough time getting snaps behind Wagner and K.J. Wright. Keep in mind that Wright is an UFA after this season so Brooks real value should come in 2021 making him more valuable in league you can use a taxi squad spot to red-shirt him in 2020.
5. Logan Wilson – Cincinnati - Tested better than I thought he would. He was also a very productive 4-year starter for Wyoming (400 tackles). I almost put him ahead of Brooks as the Bengals void at ILB represents a huge opportunity void. I may actually move him into tier one if he can make some positive waves in the pre-season (if there is one).
6. Malik Harrison – Baltimore – Very good run defender but looks like he could have issues in coverage. Again lots of opportunity in the Ravens LB room. I could see a scenario where his steady, veteran-like play bumps him ahead of Queen’s flashy style on the initial Ravens depth chart.

Tier Three - Late day 2/early day 3 picks and playing time will be very situation dependent

7. Zach Baun - He played EDGE at Wisconsin but was drafted as an off-ball LB. Very solid and productive all-around player. Doesn’t have the easiest path to high snap count, but it’s not insurmountable either.
8. Willie Gay Jr. – Kansas City – Has all of the physical attributes of a prototype NFL LB, but none of the college production. He was suspended in college for punching a teammate and also for academic fraud. His upside and opportunity for playing time are undeniable though. The Chiefs invested second round draft capitol in him and I expect him to get every opportunity to produce.
9. Akeem Davis-Gaither – Cincinnati - Fast and rangy. I have seen comps to Darius Leonard, but I'm skeptical. Again, the Bengals represent a big opportunity for LB playing time.
10. Troy Dye – Minnesota - Great athlete, durability and frame concerns (too thin). Good production all 4 seasons at Oregon (391 tackles, 41 TFLs). No clear path to playing time. Likely a developmental pick.


DB Rankings
Tier One - Only listing one tier for DBs as they have the lowest positional value and should only be taken at the end of a rookie draft
1. Jeffrey Okudah – Detroit - Might be the best in a recent string of excellent Ohio State CBs. Great tackler with good ball skills. Rookie CBs typically produce best in their rookie seasons as they get tested early and often. (I never thought I would have a corner as my #1 DB).
2. Jeremy Chinn – Carolina - FCS level player who tested through the roof athletically. The only game of his I watched was the Senior Bowl and he didn't look out-matched there or in the practices with the stepped-up competition. Carolina represents a great opportunity for playing time and if he shows out in the pre-season I could actually see listing him as my top rookie DB because he is the only viable SS prospect. I've already bumped him from #5 to #2 in these positional rankings since the draft.
3. Grant Delpit – Cleveland - I had him as my top DB coming into the year, but he didn’t look like the same guy last season after an ankle injury. Hoping his poor tackling in 2019 was just because of that injury. Looks like they are going to play him at FS which hurts his value in tackle heavy formats.
4. Xavier McKinney – New York (Giants) Versatility is his calling card. Can play slot corner or either safety position. Might be best suited as a FS which could hurt his IDP value.
5. Antoine Winfield Jr. – Tampa Bay - Good tackler and even better ball-hawk. Not the most physically gifted, but a very high football IQ. Missed 16 of 36 games the past 2 seasons due to injury. Yet another one of the top DBs that looks like he will be playing FS.

Overall Rankings
Tier One
1. Chase Young (DE)
2. Isaiah Simmons (LB)
3. Patrick Queen (LB)
4. Kenneth Murray (LB) - really 3a.
Tier Two
5. K’Lavon Chaisson (DE)
6. Yetur Gross-Matos (DE)
7. Jordyn Brooks (LB)
8. Logan Wilson (LB)
Tier Three
9. Malik Harrison
10. Derrick Brown
11. Javon Kinlaw

Overall Thoughts
Chase Young and Simmons are easily the cream of the crop. I almost made another tier just for them. The depth of this class is not great. The IDP League I am in we start 2 DL, 2LB and 2 DBs and I only consider the top 8 listed above in my overall rankings as draftable in our 3 round rookie draft.

I hate quoting longer posts, but you nailed it. I think the only change I make is McKinney ahead of Delpit by a large margin IMO (tier break for safeties after Chinn and Mckinney). I think you said you forgot Willie Gay in a later post, and I would put him in tier 3 ahead of Harrison.

As it compares to offensive players, I think what most people are saying in this thread has been about the consensus - Queen/Murray/Simmons and Young near the end of round 1 / start of round 2 with the order depending on your scoring. I would note, that the ranking on Simmons as the 1st LB vs the 3rd LB varies because some think he's going to end up playing unfavorable positions for fantasy. I do not think that, and have it 1. Simmons 2. Queen 3. Murray. FWIW, I'll never take DL over LB due to my league scoring and dynamic (D. Hunter 96th overall between Gallup and Poyer).