Peer Review of DLF Mike's 2016-2019 RB Analysis

[Cult of Dionysus]

Let's stop dancing around the bushes. Meurah/DLF Mike has made some very bold claims as to his abilities as a rookie RB evaluator. Basically that he has “the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3 - 4 years” and that he is "nearly 100% accurate".

I think we should conduct a fair, thorough and complete review of his reports, rankings and other statements made over the past 3 - 4 years.

2019 Final RB Rookie Ranking:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=181974&p=1660805&hi ... g#p1660805

From the "2018 RB rookie discussion" (not a DLF Mike thread):

quote=dlf_mikehYear 1 Rankings:

Barkley
Johnson
Guice
Michel
Freeman
Ballage
Chubb
Wilkins
Penny
Jones III

I like to take chances. I LOVE Johnson, both his skills and his situation. I think Guice will be a 1-2 year wonder. Michel will assume the starting role all to himself for once in NE, and Freeman is a wild card. I think he'll be given all the opportunity to succeed in Denver, and he has the talent, but little things like ball security and pass protection will make or break him.

I like Ballage. No wait, lemme say that again: I LOVE BALLAGE. I think he has a chance to take over the #1 job and run away as the surprise of the draft. I own Ballage in ever league I drafted in. It might not happen until 2019, but it'll happen.

Wilkins is my top super-deep RB. I don't think he'll be more than a 1-2 year guy, but he can easily take over that #1 spot and will be worth a 1st rounder. Anyone who owns him would be smart to flip him while his value is high. Not a long term guy at all.

I have 0 confidence in Penny with that RBBC, and Cleveland being Cleveland. I remind you, this is year 1 rankings. I think Chubb could be awesome in a few years. Penny is a scrub and will tank. Jones is an awesome talent but will also fail because he's bleeping uncoahable.

Jones is a bust. He's a breakaway runner and that's it. It's like Chris Johnson without the ability to avoid tacklers.

.

From 2016:

Tier 1
Zeke

Tier 2
Doctson
Coleman
Tread

Tier 3
Thomas
Shepard

Tier 4
Boyd
Dixon
Henry

The Rest.

Carroo is awesome but too crowded. I like Booker but with his injury and attitude, he's going to be in for a rude awakening in Denver.

I like Perkins to take the job in NY, but I am not sold on him as a great RB. More like the Alfred Morris type or something.

I'd honestly consider Drake at 10-12. I'm higher on him than most.

I love DeAndre Washington. I have been drafting him at the beginning of round 2. I was even sniped at 2.05 once. His stock is rising.

I am unable to find any reports for 2018, 2017 or 2016. If anyone is able to locate them, please post them below. At the moment, I've only been able to find the 2019 report and his comments in the 2018 RB rookie rankings thread and a quote from 2016. So please, let's get the source material posted or linked here and then let's determine how accurate his RB analysis has been over the last 3 - 4 years.

[Chwf3rd]

All ADP data below is from DLF's ADP with the exception of 2016.

2019
1. Miles Sanders (ADP RB2)

It's way too early to call this a miss as Sanders had a very good year. However, Jacobs was the consensus RB1 and I think he's still valued as such. While the difference is only one spot in Mike's rankings, at the very top of the draft one slot can make a huge difference. Thus i'll call this a slight miss with the understanding that it's still incredibly early.

2. Josh Jacobs (ADP RB1)

See above.

3. David Montgomery (ADP RB3)

This is in line with ADP so it looks like Mike missed along with the consensus.

4. Devin Singletary (ADP RB7)

This is a hit given the ADP.

5. Damien Harris (ADP RB5)

Right along with consensus. Can't call it a hit or miss yet.

6. Justice Hill (ADP RB6)

Right along with consensus.

Mike's "Dart Throws"
Myles Gaskin - nothing
Bryce Love - nothing
Alex Barnes - nothing
Karan Higdon - nothing

Mike's Avoids (i.e., not listed)

Darrell Henderson (ADP RB4)

This looks like a hit so far.

Alexander Mattison (ADP RB8)

Looks like a miss as Mattison excelled when given opportunities.

Benny Snell (ADP RB9)

Snell looked decent but don't think we can call this a hit or miss.

OVERALL: If you followed Mike's rankings, you would've likely done the following
1. Avoided Darrell Henderson (hit
2. Avoided Alexander Mattision miss
3. Taken Miles Sanders over Josh Jacobs at the top of drafts slight miss
4. Taken Devin Singletary (although he was in a tier below the top 3 RBs so you probably would've drafted a WR over him) slight hit

2018

1. Saquon Barkley (ADP RB1)

No credit here

2. Kerryon Johnson (ADP RB9)

Mike wildly differed from consensus on Kerryon so this one is important. It's still very early but Kerryon really struggled in his 2nd year and has been injured throughout his NFL career. As RB2, Mike passed guys like Chubb, however, he also passed on a lot of players valued below Kerryon now like Penny, Michel, and RoJo. Thus I won't call this a hit or miss yet.

3. Derrius Guice (ADP RB2)

Mike only differed by one spot and I don't see a noticeable difference between Kerryon's and Guice's value right now. Thus this is neither a hit nor a miss.

4. Sony Michel (ADP RB6)

This is 2 spots higher than consensus and thus Mike was relatively high on Michel. Plus, Mike had him ranked above his teammate Nick Chubb who had a higher ADP. Thus this is a miss.

5. Royce Freeman (ADP RB7)

This is also higher than Freeman's ADP and thus Mike was high on him. Mike was passing on Chubb but also on RoJo and Penny. Even with RoJo and Penny struggling, those two are still more valuable than Freeman. This is a clear miss.

6. Kallen Ballage (ADP RB9)

This is obviously a gigantic whiff and miss.

7. Nick Chubb (ADP RB3)

Mike was very low on Chubb and clearly missed.

8. Jordan Wilkins (ADP RB14)

Mike was very high on Wilkins and probably ended up with him on a bunch of teams. This is a miss.

9. Rashad Penny (ADP RB4)

This is a hit.

10. Ronald Jones (ADP RB5)

This is a hit.

OVERALL: Mike's rankings this year were defined by the following players
1. Kerryon Johnson - neither a hit nor miss
2. Kallen Ballage - huge miss
3. Nick Chubb - huge miss
4. Jordan Wilkins - miss
5. Rashad Penny - hit
6. RoJo - hit

I'd say this was a very average year, if not mediocre, for Mike. While he avoided busts like Penny and RoJo, he also was significantly down on the one true RB hit outside of Barkley - Nick Chubb. Furthermore, "his guys" were both huge misses in Kallen Ballage and Jordan Wilkins. Plus he missed along with everyone else on Royce Freeman and Sony Michel.

2016

This year we can evaluate Mike's RB ranks versus overall ADP. I could not load DLF's ADP from this year so instead I used DLF's consensus rankings from May as stated in this article: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2016/ ... rst-round/

1. Zeke (ADP 1st)

Obvious choice here, not a hit or miss

8. Kenneth Dixon (ADP 9th)

Mike missed along with consensus.

9. Derrick Henry (ADP 7th)

While Henry has had an up and down career, this is clearly a miss especially given that Mike had Kenneth Dixon over him.

Other Players Mike Liked

This is as stated in Mike's writeup following his rankings.

Kenyan Drake

Mike stated he would consider taking Drake between 10th and 12th - Drake's consensus DLF ranking was outside the top 12. This is a hit.

DeAndre Washington

This is a miss.

[Cameron Giles]

I want to think or at least hope that Mike is being facetious when he says he is "nearly 100% accurate" with his RB analysis, but his reports are interesting to read and he does draw useful conclusions.

[Chwf3rd]

I’d say Mike’s RB takes are defined by the following players:

Darrell Henderson
Kerryon Johnson
Nick Chubb
RoJo
Rashad Penny
Kalen Ballage

[CGW]

All ADP data below is from DLF's ADP with the exception of 2016.

2019
1. Miles Sanders (ADP RB2)

It's way too early to call this a miss as Sanders had a very good year. However, Jacobs was the consensus RB1 and I think he's still valued as such. While the difference is only one spot in Mike's rankings, at the very top of the draft one slot can make a huge difference. Thus i'll call this a slight miss with the understanding that it's still incredibly early.

2. Josh Jacobs (ADP RB1)

See above.

3. David Montgomery (ADP RB3)

This is in line with ADP so it looks like Mike missed along with the consensus.

4. Devin Singletary (ADP RB7)

This is a hit given the ADP.

5. Damien Harris (ADP RB5)

Right along with consensus. Can't call it a hit or miss yet.

6. Justice Hill (ADP RB6)

Right along with consensus.

Mike's "Dart Throws"
Myles Gaskin - nothing
Bryce Love - nothing
Alex Barnes - nothing
Karan Higdon - nothing

Mike's Avoids (i.e., not listed)

Darrell Henderson (ADP RB4)

This looks like a hit so far.

Alexander Mattison (ADP RB8)

Looks like a miss as Mattison excelled when given opportunities.

Benny Snell (ADP RB9)

Snell looked decent but don't think we can call this a hit or miss.

OVERALL: If you followed Mike's rankings, you would've likely done the following
1. Avoided Darrell Henderson (hit
2. Avoided Alexander Mattision miss
3. Taken Miles Sanders over Josh Jacobs at the top of drafts slight miss
4. Taken Devin Singletary (although he was in a tier below the top 3 RBs so you probably would've drafted a WR over him) slight hit

2018

1. Saquon Barkley (ADP RB1)

No credit here

2. Kerryon Johnson (ADP RB9)

Mike wildly differed from consensus on Kerryon so this one is important. It's still very early but Kerryon really struggled in his 2nd year and has been injured throughout his NFL career. As RB2, Mike passed guys like Chubb, however, he also passed on a lot of players valued below Kerryon now like Penny, Michel, and RoJo. Thus I won't call this a hit or miss yet.

3. Derrius Guice (ADP RB2)

Mike only differed by one spot and I don't see a noticeable difference between Kerryon's and Guice's value right now. Thus this is neither a hit nor a miss.

4. Sony Michel (ADP RB6)

This is 2 spots higher than consensus and thus Mike was relatively high on Michel. Plus, Mike had him ranked above his teammate Nick Chubb who had a higher ADP. Thus this is a miss.

5. Royce Freeman (ADP RB7)

This is also higher than Freeman's ADP and thus Mike was high on him. Mike was passing on Chubb but also on RoJo and Penny. Even with RoJo and Penny struggling, those two are still more valuable than Freeman. This is a clear miss.

6. Kallen Ballage (ADP RB9)

This is obviously a gigantic whiff and miss.

7. Nick Chubb (ADP RB3)

Mike was very low on Chubb and clearly missed.

8. Jordan Wilkins (ADP RB14)

Mike was very high on Wilkins and probably ended up with him on a bunch of teams. This is a miss.

9. Rashad Penny (ADP RB4)

This is a hit.

10. Ronald Jones (ADP RB5)

This is a hit.

OVERALL: Mike's rankings this year were defined by the following players
1. Kerryon Johnson - neither a hit nor miss
2. Kallen Ballage - huge miss
3. Nick Chubb - huge miss
4. Jordan Wilkins - miss
5. Rashad Penny - hit
6. RoJo - hit

I'd say this was a very average year, if not mediocre, for Mike. While he avoided busts like Penny and RoJo, he also was significantly down on the one true RB hit outside of Barkley - Nick Chubb. Furthermore, "his guys" were both huge misses in Kallen Ballage and Jordan Wilkins. Plus he missed along with everyone else on Royce Freeman and Sony Michel.

2016

This year we can evaluate Mike's RB ranks versus overall ADP. I could not load DLF's ADP from this year so instead I used DLF's consensus rankings from May as stated in this article: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2016/ ... rst-round/

1. Zeke (ADP 1st)

Obvious choice here, not a hit or miss

8. Kenneth Dixon (ADP 9th)

Mike missed along with consensus.

9. Derrick Henry (ADP 7th)

While Henry has had an up and down career, this is clearly a miss especially given that Mike had Kenneth Dixon over him.

Other Players Mike Liked

This is as stated in Mike's writeup following his rankings.

Kenyan Drake

Mike stated he would consider taking Drake between 10th and 12th - Drake's consensus DLF ranking was outside the top 12. This is a hit.

DeAndre Washington

This is a miss.

Don't love some of this grading hit vs miss. For example, why is Sony a miss because he was ranked higher than Chubb? That means he was wrong on Chubb, but not necessarily Sony. He had Sony as RB4 from that class, which is about where he is valued today. I'd say that's either a neutral or positive rank.

Another is Sanders/jacobs/Monty. Jacobs was clearly the top RB to begin 2019, but to end the season I'd argue the value may have even tilted towards Sanders. Mike specifically said in his write up that Sanders was likely a 2nd year play. Also in 2019, Mike wasn't a fan of Monty, but admitted the scheme somewhat fit him and it was a tough rating. He was ranked 3rd in 2019 and I would imagine is still ranked similarly (a tick behind the only other guy Mike liked). Hard to call that a miss.. again that's positive to neutral.

_______________________________

I think saying anyone is 100% accurate or even anywhere close is a stretch. What I will say for Mike is that the process he uses and his general success rate has helped me evaluate RB better than anyone else on this board.

I won't go pick for pick to grade him, but he's helped me identify several players to avoid as well as guys like Singletary who have provided significant value to my teams that I likely wouldn't have drafted otherwise.

[Chwf3rd]

All ADP data below is from DLF's ADP with the exception of 2016.

2019
1. Miles Sanders (ADP RB2)

It's way too early to call this a miss as Sanders had a very good year. However, Jacobs was the consensus RB1 and I think he's still valued as such. While the difference is only one spot in Mike's rankings, at the very top of the draft one slot can make a huge difference. Thus i'll call this a slight miss with the understanding that it's still incredibly early.

2. Josh Jacobs (ADP RB1)

See above.

3. David Montgomery (ADP RB3)

This is in line with ADP so it looks like Mike missed along with the consensus.

4. Devin Singletary (ADP RB7)

This is a hit given the ADP.

5. Damien Harris (ADP RB5)

Right along with consensus. Can't call it a hit or miss yet.

6. Justice Hill (ADP RB6)

Right along with consensus.

Mike's "Dart Throws"
Myles Gaskin - nothing
Bryce Love - nothing
Alex Barnes - nothing
Karan Higdon - nothing

Mike's Avoids (i.e., not listed)

Darrell Henderson (ADP RB4)

This looks like a hit so far.

Alexander Mattison (ADP RB8)

Looks like a miss as Mattison excelled when given opportunities.

Benny Snell (ADP RB9)

Snell looked decent but don't think we can call this a hit or miss.

OVERALL: If you followed Mike's rankings, you would've likely done the following
1. Avoided Darrell Henderson (hit
2. Avoided Alexander Mattision miss
3. Taken Miles Sanders over Josh Jacobs at the top of drafts slight miss
4. Taken Devin Singletary (although he was in a tier below the top 3 RBs so you probably would've drafted a WR over him) slight hit

2018

1. Saquon Barkley (ADP RB1)

No credit here

2. Kerryon Johnson (ADP RB9)

Mike wildly differed from consensus on Kerryon so this one is important. It's still very early but Kerryon really struggled in his 2nd year and has been injured throughout his NFL career. As RB2, Mike passed guys like Chubb, however, he also passed on a lot of players valued below Kerryon now like Penny, Michel, and RoJo. Thus I won't call this a hit or miss yet.

3. Derrius Guice (ADP RB2)

Mike only differed by one spot and I don't see a noticeable difference between Kerryon's and Guice's value right now. Thus this is neither a hit nor a miss.

4. Sony Michel (ADP RB6)

This is 2 spots higher than consensus and thus Mike was relatively high on Michel. Plus, Mike had him ranked above his teammate Nick Chubb who had a higher ADP. Thus this is a miss.

5. Royce Freeman (ADP RB7)

This is also higher than Freeman's ADP and thus Mike was high on him. Mike was passing on Chubb but also on RoJo and Penny. Even with RoJo and Penny struggling, those two are still more valuable than Freeman. This is a clear miss.

6. Kallen Ballage (ADP RB9)

This is obviously a gigantic whiff and miss.

7. Nick Chubb (ADP RB3)

Mike was very low on Chubb and clearly missed.

8. Jordan Wilkins (ADP RB14)

Mike was very high on Wilkins and probably ended up with him on a bunch of teams. This is a miss.

9. Rashad Penny (ADP RB4)

This is a hit.

10. Ronald Jones (ADP RB5)

This is a hit.

OVERALL: Mike's rankings this year were defined by the following players
1. Kerryon Johnson - neither a hit nor miss
2. Kallen Ballage - huge miss
3. Nick Chubb - huge miss
4. Jordan Wilkins - miss
5. Rashad Penny - hit
6. RoJo - hit

I'd say this was a very average year, if not mediocre, for Mike. While he avoided busts like Penny and RoJo, he also was significantly down on the one true RB hit outside of Barkley - Nick Chubb. Furthermore, "his guys" were both huge misses in Kallen Ballage and Jordan Wilkins. Plus he missed along with everyone else on Royce Freeman and Sony Michel.

2016

This year we can evaluate Mike's RB ranks versus overall ADP. I could not load DLF's ADP from this year so instead I used DLF's consensus rankings from May as stated in this article: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2016/ ... rst-round/

1. Zeke (ADP 1st)

Obvious choice here, not a hit or miss

8. Kenneth Dixon (ADP 9th)

Mike missed along with consensus.

9. Derrick Henry (ADP 7th)

While Henry has had an up and down career, this is clearly a miss especially given that Mike had Kenneth Dixon over him.

Other Players Mike Liked

This is as stated in Mike's writeup following his rankings.

Kenyan Drake

Mike stated he would consider taking Drake between 10th and 12th - Drake's consensus DLF ranking was outside the top 12. This is a hit.

DeAndre Washington

This is a miss.

Don't love some of this grading hit vs miss. For example, why is Sony a miss because he was ranked higher than Chubb? That means he was wrong on Chubb, but not necessarily Sony. He had Sony as RB4 from that class, which is about where he is valued today. I'd say that's either a neutral or positive rank.

Another is Sanders/jacobs/Monty. Jacobs was clearly the top RB to begin 2019, but to end the season I'd argue the value may have even tilted towards Sanders. Mike specifically said in his write up that Sanders was likely a 2nd year play. Also in 2019, Mike wasn't a fan of Monty, but admitted the scheme somewhat fit him and it was a tough rating. He was ranked 3rd in 2019 and I would imagine is still ranked similarly (a tick behind the only other guy Mike liked). Hard to call that a miss.. again that's positive to neutral.

_______________________________

I think saying anyone is 100% accurate or even anywhere close is a stretch. What I will say for Mike is that the process he uses and his general success rate has helped me evaluate RB better than anyone else on this board.

I won't go pick for pick to grade him, but he's helped me identify several players to avoid as well as guys like Singletary who have provided significant value to my teams that I likely wouldn't have drafted otherwise.

I'm fine calling Sanders > Jacobs neutral. Still way too early to tell.

He was in line with consensus on Sony Michel who I would say has been a miss so far. I'm fine calling that neither a hit nor a miss though given the RBs taken behind him.

I listed the RBs he was significantly higher or lower on than consensus so it's probably best to judge his RB ranks based on those.

I don't think anybody is criticizing Mike because he's missed on rookie drafts - literally everyone does. The issue is him proclaiming himself to be the master of RB prospect evaluations because he knows the RB coach for some division III school.

[Bot101]

How is Darrell Henderson a hit? Did he have a great season that I slept through?

[CGW]

Fair enough, I can agree that the boastfulness is a bit much.

I still hope he continues to put out the report, as i am sure many do find it helpful compared to high % of useless fluff in the majority of the threads on here.

[bjd5211]

How is Darrell Henderson a hit? Did he have a great season that I slept through?

He's saying Mikes low ranking of him in comparison to ADP was a hit, not that Henderson himself was a hit.

[CGW]

How is Darrell Henderson a hit? Did he have a great season that I slept through?

Because Mike said he sucked and to avoid. That was pretty good call considering he was going in the 1st round of most drafts.

[Bot101]

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification gents.

[Cult of Dionysus]

How is Darrell Henderson a hit? Did he have a great season that I slept through?

Because Mike said he sucked and to avoid. That was pretty good call considering he was going in the 1st round of most drafts.

I thought this was dynasty football?

No one knows at this point whether DH is a hit or a miss. Let's wait to see this season.

[CGW]

Very true, probably still too early to call it a miss.

[Bot101]

I will say Henderson basically doing nothing his rookie season is not a positive sign. Its not like Gurley was back to his old form and shredding the league apart. I always question a guy when he doesnt see playing time when the potential opportunity presents itself. My thoughts are the same with Damien Harris. But this draft, and season, definitely have my interest even though I dont own Henderson or Harris anywhere.

[bjd5211]

How is Darrell Henderson a hit? Did he have a great season that I slept through?

Because Mike said he sucked and to avoid. That was pretty good call considering he was going in the 1st round of most drafts.

I thought this was dynasty football?

No one knows at this point whether DH is a hit or a miss. Let's wait to see this season.

Perhaps so, but it is a fact that spending a 1st round pick on him was a miss. You could have drafted someone else and then acquired Henderson later much cheaper.