I will have accurate numbers after the draft. I have no idea who is drafted where yetDJB wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:23 pmSo which guys are going to hit and which miss for this year?Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pmSure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.
I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%
My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
What can I say except, "You're welcome!"
Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Great. Is this without tinkering or with tinkering?Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pmIt was 80% correct in 2019Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pmThe difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%
My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
Again, a formula isn't predictive until there are many years of actually maintaining the result. Just because you were able to line up past numbers to meet a certain criteria does not mean your formula predicted anything.
If you're claiming that you get better hit rates than the NFL, then either:'
1. You're full of bleep.
2. You're wasting your time doing this for fantasy purposes when you can make a killing doing this in the actual NFL.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Copy that.
Follow me on Twitter @NickDynastyff
Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
This is exactly right. Hindsight is always incredibly powerful in predicting the past. Unfortunately, the future is less predictable. If there was a magic formula, analytical or film study, NFL teams would almost never miss. I'm sceptical, but hope it truly does work out.Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pmThe difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%
My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Burrow
RB |
WR | Puka, Olave, Smith, Flowers, Dotson, Addison
TE | Pitts, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1.01, 1.02, 4.01, 5.01
2025 | 1stx3, 3rdx3
10 Team | SF | PPR | 2023 Champ
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Allen, Stroud, Young
RB | K Williams, White, Monty, Herbert, Chandler
WR | Lamb, AJB, Puka, Waddle, Mooney, J. Williams, Watson, Davis
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1.04, 3.10
12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF
QB | Herbert Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, K Williams, Singletary, Henry, A Jones, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Puka, Flowers, Downs,
TE | Hockenson, Likely, Otton
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Burrow
RB |
WR | Puka, Olave, Smith, Flowers, Dotson, Addison
TE | Pitts, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1.01, 1.02, 4.01, 5.01
2025 | 1stx3, 3rdx3
10 Team | SF | PPR | 2023 Champ
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF
QB | Allen, Stroud, Young
RB | K Williams, White, Monty, Herbert, Chandler
WR | Lamb, AJB, Puka, Waddle, Mooney, J. Williams, Watson, Davis
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1.04, 3.10
12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF
QB | Herbert Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, K Williams, Singletary, Henry, A Jones, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Puka, Flowers, Downs,
TE | Hockenson, Likely, Otton
Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Late to the party, but I believe that was me who called FF that. And part of that is the fact that we talk trash to each other all the time but mostly in private. And fwiw, he is definitely cranky and old but only a troll some of the timeHottoddies wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:55 pmI'm recalling a time when someone else referred to you as a "cranky old troll". I actually do have respect for your opinions and I certainly hope that I would never resort to name calling on this forum. I'm not a big fan of personal pissing matches. They don't really serve any useful purpose.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:58 pmI don't see how I am trolling, but you're entitled to your opinion. My relationship with Mike is fine. We have mutual respect, and just because I called into question his claims doesn't mean I'm trolling him.Hottoddies wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:15 pm
Fair enough, but Mike's accuracy or ability to scout RBs has no baring on the notion that Taylor may be overrated. Just like saying that you are a "cranky old troll" has anything to do with the validity of any of your statements.
Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Didn't Jesse Reeves do something similar a few months ago about hit rate using breakout age and dominator ranking? Seems like pretty interesting stuff:
https://twitter.com/JesseReevesFF/statu ... 7859127298
https://twitter.com/JesseReevesFF/statu ... 7859127298
12 team dynasty | SF | 1 ppr
QBs: Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins
WRs: Deebo, Godwin, Mbrown, JDowns
RBs: Chubb, Gibbs, Achane, K. Miller
TE: Okonkwo, Mayer
2024 1.03, 1.09
2025 early 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, early 2nd, 2nd
2026 early 1st, 1st, early 2nd
----------
QBs: Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins
WRs: Deebo, Godwin, Mbrown, JDowns
RBs: Chubb, Gibbs, Achane, K. Miller
TE: Okonkwo, Mayer
2024 1.03, 1.09
2025 early 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, early 2nd, 2nd
2026 early 1st, 1st, early 2nd
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
So I'm assuming that you only count the players that meet your Dominator and Breakout Age threshold from those that are invited to the combine and drafted. If you only count the ones that are deemed worthy of playing in the NFL and you don't include all of the college players that meet those Dominator and Breakout Age thresholds, those threshold standards in themselves don't have the same predictive quality and don't necessarily indicate a player's future prospect.Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:26 pmI will have accurate numbers after the draft. I have no idea who is drafted where yetDJB wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:23 pmSo which guys are going to hit and which miss for this year?Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%
My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
What can I say except, "You're welcome!"
Furthermore, just because you may be able to somewhat predict the percentage of players within a certain group of players that will succeed, it doesn't necessarily mean that any one individual of that group will have the same chances of success.
"Smart people learn from everything and everyone, average people from their experiences, stupid people already have all the answers." - Socrates
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Pre-NFL draft?Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pmIt was 80% correct in 2019Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pmThe difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%
My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
"You're a creep. You got caught.." -Dan Patrick
Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Obviously not. Draft capital is an input in his model.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:43 pmPre-NFL draft?Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pmIt was 80% correct in 2019Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.
If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
Funny enough, the “tape-grinding” he rails so hard against is an inherent factor in his “model” due to the heavy reliance on it by the NFL. The guy thinks he has ascended above actually watching players play, but he has actually just outsourced the work to those far more capable than him.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Pickett
RB: CMC, Taylor, Gibson, Dillon, Akers, Penny
WR: JJeff, Hollywood, Olave, Toney, Aiyuk, Jeudy, C. Davis, Boyd, C. Samuel,
TE: Njoku, Gesicki
2023 picks: 1.x, 2.x, 3.x, 4.x
QB: Dak, Pickett
RB: CMC, Taylor, Gibson, Dillon, Akers, Penny
WR: JJeff, Hollywood, Olave, Toney, Aiyuk, Jeudy, C. Davis, Boyd, C. Samuel,
TE: Njoku, Gesicki
2023 picks: 1.x, 2.x, 3.x, 4.x
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
That's why I dont go just off just those two thresholds to give a likelihood of success. Also, its another tool for the tool boxHottoddies wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:28 pmSo I'm assuming that you only count the players that meet your Dominator and Breakout Age threshold from those that are invited to the combine and drafted. If you only count the ones that are deemed worthy of playing in the NFL and you don't include all of the college players that meet those Dominator and Breakout Age thresholds, those threshold standards in themselves don't have the same predictive quality and don't necessarily indicate a player's future prospect.Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:26 pmI will have accurate numbers after the draft. I have no idea who is drafted where yet
Furthermore, just because you may be able to somewhat predict the percentage of players within a certain group of players that will succeed, it doesn't necessarily mean that any one individual of that group will have the same chances of success.
Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Can you link the spreadsheet you've been talking about? I can't seem to find itJohnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:49 pm That's why I dont go just off just those two thresholds to give a likelihood of success. Also, its another tool for the tool box
12 team dynasty | SF | 1 ppr
QBs: Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins
WRs: Deebo, Godwin, Mbrown, JDowns
RBs: Chubb, Gibbs, Achane, K. Miller
TE: Okonkwo, Mayer
2024 1.03, 1.09
2025 early 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, early 2nd, 2nd
2026 early 1st, 1st, early 2nd
----------
QBs: Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins
WRs: Deebo, Godwin, Mbrown, JDowns
RBs: Chubb, Gibbs, Achane, K. Miller
TE: Okonkwo, Mayer
2024 1.03, 1.09
2025 early 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, early 2nd, 2nd
2026 early 1st, 1st, early 2nd
----------
Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
I'm confused.Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pmIt was 80% correct in 2019Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pmThe difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.Johnny B. Goode wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%
My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
You say a hit is someone who achieves one top 24 season. And you were 80% right in 2019. I assume that means that 4 out of the 5 rookies that met your threshold had a top 24 season?
Can you elaborate on this 80% hit rate some more?
Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Wow. Just read all 16 pages. I didn’t learn much, but it was definitely entertaining.
Team 1: 12-team SF 0.5 PPR:
QB: Dak, Russ, Stafford, Geno, Dalton
RB: Harris, Gibson, Chubb, Cohen
WR: DK, Ridley, Kirk, Chark, Woods, C Samuel, Shepard, Reagor
TE: Fant, Knox
Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TEP:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Geno, Foles
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen, Pollard
WR: DJM, Cooper, Sutton, Deebo, R. Moore, ARSB, Eskridge, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Arnold
Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Winston, Cam
RB: Harris, Ekeler, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, Woods, Chark, Lockett
TE: Gesicki, OJH, Firkser
Team 4: 12-team SF TEP Devy
QB: Wilson, Geno, Ryan, Cousins
RB: Zeke, Chubb, Sanders, Pollard, Hines, Cohen, Henderson
WR: Cooper, Godwin, Sutton, JuJu, Samuel, Fuller, Shepard, Campbell
TE: Fant, Gesicki, Ertz, Freiermuth
Devy: Boutte, Young, Slovis, Harris
Team 5: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak, Lance, Jones, Cam
RB: Swift, Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Golladay, Chase, Pittman, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Wallace
TE: Herndon, Gesicki, Freiermuth
QB: Dak, Russ, Stafford, Geno, Dalton
RB: Harris, Gibson, Chubb, Cohen
WR: DK, Ridley, Kirk, Chark, Woods, C Samuel, Shepard, Reagor
TE: Fant, Knox
Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TEP:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Geno, Foles
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen, Pollard
WR: DJM, Cooper, Sutton, Deebo, R. Moore, ARSB, Eskridge, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Arnold
Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Winston, Cam
RB: Harris, Ekeler, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, Woods, Chark, Lockett
TE: Gesicki, OJH, Firkser
Team 4: 12-team SF TEP Devy
QB: Wilson, Geno, Ryan, Cousins
RB: Zeke, Chubb, Sanders, Pollard, Hines, Cohen, Henderson
WR: Cooper, Godwin, Sutton, JuJu, Samuel, Fuller, Shepard, Campbell
TE: Fant, Gesicki, Ertz, Freiermuth
Devy: Boutte, Young, Slovis, Harris
Team 5: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak, Lance, Jones, Cam
RB: Swift, Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Golladay, Chase, Pittman, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Wallace
TE: Herndon, Gesicki, Freiermuth
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
Well then how can one say the hit rate is higher than the NFL's? Apples and Oranges.PR0v3 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:46 pmObviously not. Draft capital is an input in his model.
Funny enough, the “tape-grinding” he rails so hard against is an inherent factor in his “model” due to the heavy reliance on it by the NFL. The guy thinks he has ascended above actually watching players play, but he has actually just outsourced the work to those far more capable than him.
"You're a creep. You got caught.." -Dan Patrick
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor
That's a wrap.PR0v3 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:46 pmObviously not. Draft capital is an input in his model.
Funny enough, the “tape-grinding” he rails so hard against is an inherent factor in his “model” due to the heavy reliance on it by the NFL. The guy thinks he has ascended above actually watching players play, but he has actually just outsourced the work to those far more capable than him.
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