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Cameron Giles
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:13 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:34 am My issue with film analysis is 2 different people can see 2 different things. Matt Waldman breaks down the same play Mike just did, but calls his "almost falling down" a stop start movement, the very thing Mike said he should have used. Personally I don't think he almost fell, but I can't definitively argue it.
With film analysis, you really need to consider multiple sources. Just going off Waldman or Mike, or whoever as the lone source is going to get you nowhere long-term. There are a lot of draft analysts and writers out there who are praised for their work with game tape.

I'm all for whatever paints a complete analysis of a prospect. There's been a bunch of times in these forums where people have formed logical opinions based on a healthy combination of watching games themselves, other analysts, and analytics, and been on the money.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:13 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:34 am My issue with film analysis is 2 different people can see 2 different things. Matt Waldman breaks down the same play Mike just did, but calls his "almost falling down" a stop start movement, the very thing Mike said he should have used. Personally I don't think he almost fell, but I can't definitively argue it.
I'm all for whatever paints a complete analysis of a prospect. There's been a bunch of times in these forums where people have formed logical opinions based on a healthy combination of watching games themselves, other analysts, and analytics, and been on the money.
Unless you truly have advanced scouting ability, this is the most successful method. Gather info from the best sources and distill it down to a high confidence ranking. The difficult prerequisite is having awareness of your own biases though.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:13 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:34 am My issue with film analysis is 2 different people can see 2 different things. Matt Waldman breaks down the same play Mike just did, but calls his "almost falling down" a stop start movement, the very thing Mike said he should have used. Personally I don't think he almost fell, but I can't definitively argue it.
I'm all for whatever paints a complete analysis of a prospect. There's been a bunch of times in these forums where people have formed logical opinions based on a healthy combination of watching games themselves, other analysts, and analytics, and been on the money.
Unless you truly have advanced scouting ability, this is the most successful method. Gather info from the best sources and distill it down to a high confidence ranking. The difficult prerequisite is having awareness of your own biases though.
For sure. I still use film analysis, just pointing out the potential issues with it. Nothing is perfect. Take the best of all available information, or what you consider to be the best, I should say, and use it accordingly.
"You're a creep. You got caught.." -Dan Patrick

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:13 pm

I'm all for whatever paints a complete analysis of a prospect. There's been a bunch of times in these forums where people have formed logical opinions based on a healthy combination of watching games themselves, other analysts, and analytics, and been on the money.
Unless you truly have advanced scouting ability, this is the most successful method. Gather info from the best sources and distill it down to a high confidence ranking. The difficult prerequisite is having awareness of your own biases though.
For sure. I still use film analysis, just pointing out the potential issues with it. Nothing is perfect. Take the best of all available information, or what you consider to be the best, I should say, and use it accordingly.
Yep, all part of the soup. Analytics have their place for sure. As does watching tape for that "it" factor. I need better scouts to tell me what I'm seeing beyond that though. No shame in saying so.

If you vet out some solid resources for detailed scouting and combine that with BA, DR, draft capital, and general league knowledge, you got a pretty strong recipe for success. Especially if you can check your ego while doing so. Makes the charlatans like Johnny B really easy to spot too.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm

Unless you truly have advanced scouting ability, this is the most successful method. Gather info from the best sources and distill it down to a high confidence ranking. The difficult prerequisite is having awareness of your own biases though.
For sure. I still use film analysis, just pointing out the potential issues with it. Nothing is perfect. Take the best of all available information, or what you consider to be the best, I should say, and use it accordingly.
Yep, all part of the soup. Analytics have their place for sure. As does watching tape for that "it" factor. I need better scouts to tell me what I'm seeing beyond that though. No shame in saying so.

If you vet out some solid resources for detailed scouting and combine that with BA, DR, draft capital, and general league knowledge, you got a pretty strong recipe for success. Especially if you can check your ego while doing so. Makes the charlatans like Johnny B really easy to spot too.
Thanks for the vote of confidence of my wr method!

Even when hes not replying to me he still finds a way to try to take a jab at me.

When you're good, there's always someone trying to bring you down. I'm flattered ☺️

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 pm
FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:39 pm

For sure. I still use film analysis, just pointing out the potential issues with it. Nothing is perfect. Take the best of all available information, or what you consider to be the best, I should say, and use it accordingly.
Yep, all part of the soup. Analytics have their place for sure. As does watching tape for that "it" factor. I need better scouts to tell me what I'm seeing beyond that though. No shame in saying so.

If you vet out some solid resources for detailed scouting and combine that with BA, DR, draft capital, and general league knowledge, you got a pretty strong recipe for success. Especially if you can check your ego while doing so. Makes the charlatans like Johnny B really easy to spot too.
Thanks for the vote of confidence of my wr method!

Even when hes not replying to me he still finds a way to try to take a jab at me. When you're good, there's always a jealous hater.
I'm flattered ☺️
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:45 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 pm

Yep, all part of the soup. Analytics have their place for sure. As does watching tape for that "it" factor. I need better scouts to tell me what I'm seeing beyond that though. No shame in saying so.

If you vet out some solid resources for detailed scouting and combine that with BA, DR, draft capital, and general league knowledge, you got a pretty strong recipe for success. Especially if you can check your ego while doing so. Makes the charlatans like Johnny B really easy to spot too.
Thanks for the vote of confidence of my wr method!

Even when hes not replying to me he still finds a way to try to take a jab at me. When you're good, there's always a jealous hater.
I'm flattered ☺️
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
Nah what I did is took BA and DR, and most recently combined it with draft capital to not only create a way to rule wrs out, but to predict the chance for success for each player drafted better than the nfl draft hit percentage. :idea:

Way more than what you can say :wink:

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:55 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:45 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:29 pm

Thanks for the vote of confidence of my wr method!

Even when hes not replying to me he still finds a way to try to take a jab at me. When you're good, there's always a jealous hater.
I'm flattered ☺️
The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
Nah what I did is took BA and DR, and most recently combined it with draft capital to not only create a way to rule wrs out, but to predict the chance for success for each player drafted better than the nfl draft hit percentage. :idea:

Way more than what you can say :wink:
No you didnt. I'm sure you fully think you cracked the davinci code, but hilariously it only illustrates your ignorance.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:03 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.
Agree completely and it's this thread right here lol. Look up like two posts and he just repeated it.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

What can I say except, "You're welcome!"

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:14 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.
Shhhh let him keep going

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:22 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:12 pm
Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%
The difference is your formula is built entirely with the benefit of hindsight.

If you can go years and years with the same formula and maintain consistent results, then there's a different discussion to be had. Otherwise, it hasn't predicted anything.
It was 80% correct in 2019

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby DJB » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:23 pm

Johnny B. Goode wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:57 pm
skinfanjon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:41 pm The problem with your spreadsheet, you donkey, is that you draw universal conclusions from it with your thumb on the scales and ignore the things that happen on the field. The tape matters, as does general league knowledge (which you come up short on). But the main area you fail is understanding your own biases. you take a good idea like BA+DR, make it about yourself, and completely ignore context.

And EVEN IF you create a perfect statistical model, it's still based on back testing. If you spend anytime analyzing financial markets (and I fully expect you'll profess expertise in this area too while being way over your skiis), you'll know that past success is no indication of future performance. In other words, the system depends on itself and has no true prognosticative value. The entire financial newsletter business is built on ripping people off over this premise btw. Agora financial, Motley Fool, etc...this is what they do.
This has always been my conundrum. I don't think toying with numbers with the benefit of hindsight means a model is predictive. Simultaneously, I completely understand and agree that Breakout Age and Dominator have a clear link to top WR prospects, so it would be foolish to ignore it. I just wouldn't plaster it out there as the be-all and end-all of evaluation.

I can't remember who it was, but someone in a thread said they have a formula that hits on WR's better than the average NFL rate. I'm not buying anything that comes to that conclusion.
Sure do. would he happy to share. NFL hit rate (hit means at least 1 top 24 fantasy season)
1st round: 47%
2nd round: 38%
3rd round: 23%

My formula:
1st round: 61%
2nd round: 46%
3rd round: 40%

What can I say except, "You're welcome!"
So which guys are going to hit and which miss for this year?
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