Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[mgscott]

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

So he's the Bizarro Cam Akers?

It's funny you say this, because that's exactly the issue with Cam. IMO, that's even worse. I want no part of Akers. He's a project with missing pieces. I think Cam can be decent & productive, but not elite.

My article about Swift, Dobbins, JT, and Cam Akers is about to post sometime today: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/

I agree with on on Akers. I don't see anything special on film. I know his line was bad, but I don't see much of his athleticism jump out even when there is something there.

[Chwf3rd]

The thread took on a life of its own when MikeH claimed to be the most accurate predictor of running back success, then spectacularly failed to back up that claim.

I would say this isn't true. People have pointed out some examples of inaccuracy. Nothing extraordinary, no big whiffs, but examples none-the-less.

Until someone provides a better track record from someone else or of their own accord, I'm going to declare myself the RB rankings winner. And we all know that a self-proclaimed title is the highest one can achieve. Soon enough the money and women will follow.

1. Kallen Ballage as the likely RB2 in 2018
2. Sony Michel will catch a lot of passes
3. Nick Chubb will not have value in PPR
4. Dalvin Cook is undraftable
5. Derrick Henry as a the 1.11 behind Treadwell, Doctson, etc
6. If I’m reading your earlier post correctly, it seems like you were saying that RoJo will be good if he fixed his fumbling issues.

I don’t care if your cousin is the RB coach at University of Phoenix, you’re just as bad as anybody here at ranking RBs.

[OhCruelestRanter]

The thread took on a life of its own when MikeH claimed to be the most accurate predictor of running back success, then spectacularly failed to back up that claim.

I would say this isn't true. People have pointed out some examples of inaccuracy. Nothing extraordinary, no big whiffs, but examples none-the-less.

Until someone provides a better track record from someone else or of their own accord, I'm going to declare myself the RB rankings winner. And we all know that a self-proclaimed title is the highest one can achieve. Soon enough the money and women will follow.

This is an awful lot of defending yourself for somebody who has claimed multiple times to not care about our respect.

Anyways, yeah, you spectacularly and hilariously failed to back up the claim that you’re “the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years”. It would be one thing if it was just the laundry list of misses (Henry, Cook, Chubb, Ballage, Michel etc.), or just the fact that you never offered any proof that you have the most accurate analysis (instead hiding behind the fact that you’re a provocateur or something). But no, when called out on being wildly wrong, you just claimed that you were lying. It’s a claim that’s gone sideways as quickly as Johnny B. Goode saying the coronavirus wasn’t a big deal.

Anyways, since you asked that we get back to Taylor, here goes. He has historically good production. We have data that says this means something. He’s a historically good athlete. We also have data that says this means something. We don’t yet know his draft capital, but when we do, we’ll have data that says that means something too.

We have no data about “what MikeH feels when he watches a video of a running back play football.” There’s no meaningful conclusion to be drawn from your efforts. It means bleep nothing.

[themburns]

Taylor's highlights are long runs, many of which where he went untouched. He didn't need to create space or make defenders miss. The thing I got out of watching tape was how awesome that offensive line was. By the time Taylor reached his linemen, they had already pushed their opponents 2-3 yards downfield. It was an incredible display of power.

I went in to watch JT and came away impressed with the O-line. I can't even recall another time that's happened.

I already know the rebuttals: His combine numbers are amazing. I agree they are, but his game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, and that's always a red flag.

Of the all time college rushing leaders, Jonathan Taylor has the most yardage of any 3 year RB in history. If that game performance doesn't equal his combine performance, I do not know who's performance is acceptable. (note: over 3 years so while the line might have been elite this year, it's hard to believe that was a static situation.)

I think you have a good point on Taylor, in that I don't think there is a huge gap between him and Dobbins or Swift. This kind of hyperbolic language makes it hard to trust your arguments. Also, when anyone appeals to their own authority, it's usually a mistake.

You're looking at everything strictly from a numbers point of view. His combine is as good or better than Swift and Dobbins, depending on ones opinion of what is most important for a running back. His collegiate stats are awesome, but college stats do not equal NFL success. Ron Dayne & Donnel Pumphrey had amazing college stats too.

His tape isn't impressive and that's the issue. His combine numbers are great. They show tremendous burst and agility, but his tape doesn't show JT running the proper zone plays requiring such talents, which means he never practiced those skills in college, meaning he still has to learn the position at the next level. His intelligence is the reason that he gives me hope. He comes across as a guy who can learn and improve.

Did I say "not a huge gap"? That's vague and I apologize. I believe Dobbins and Swift are sure-thing RBs. They are 1A and 1B, however you'd like to rank them. I think -- by default -- JT is the next man up. However I do not think he's even on the same tier as Dobbins & Swift. By taking JT, you are taking a chance that he'll learn and improve and become a star. I think the odds are in his favor, but I'd be very scared on drafting him anyway, especially if he goes to a team that can't use him properly (like what Seattle did with Penny).

Dobbins & Swift are my 1.01 and 1.02 picks. JT is probably 1.08 or so imo. To me, that's a pretty big gap.

And he didn't accomplish that just because he is fast and played behind a great OL, he has to be pretty damn good himself.

He was college RB good. In the NFL, you have to be able to create space and make defenders miss at the LOS. I saw one play where he made a defender miss at the LOS, and I half think he was falling down and regained his balance and accidentally juked the defender in the process. He made his living through elite strength and speed, which you can do at the college level, but it's going to take far more than that in the NFL to be successful.

It's nice to not have to deal in statistics because you can never be "wrong". The goalpost just move enough so that Nick Chubb can be classified as a grinder.

You state simply JT doesn't run the "proper" zone plays. Of course, a google search would show plentiful evidence that it isn't the case.
https://www.thedailystampede.com/2019/8 ... han-taylor

http://insidethepylon.com/pylon-u/teams ... ess-power/

https://nflmocks.com/2020/01/14/2020-nf ... overrated/

Even in an article that calls him overrated, it makes clear his "bread and butter" was outside zone runs. You want it both ways. JT needs to be dinged for his offensive line play and that because they played so well, he didn't have to make defenders miss behind the line of scrimmage. I think for a line that only had one player drafted in the last two seasons (a 5th round guard, with no day 2 grades within this class either), it's tough to believe they were so superior to allow a "good college back" to run for more in three years than Herschel Walker.

Further it's ridiculous to bring Donnell Pumphrey, a 175 pound back who played against sub-par competition and had a day three draft grade into the conversation.

[Zacsby]

Where's the stop-and-go footwork that every RB needs to possess? Where did he ever show ability to find cut back lanes? Why can't he keep his hips pointed downfield when he avoids tacklers?

https://youtu.be/we_qHxD6C-4

2:24

I'm no expert on the intricacies of the RB position, but does this play not showcase some of the things you claim JT unequivocally lacks? That is one small crease. Not only did he possess the vision to see it, he has the agility and footwork to get to it. Of course we all know he has the athleticism to explode through it. Two defenders had him squared up in the hole and then poof, he was gone.

That's just one play that stood out to me. As was the case with the 3rd down and pass blocking examples that were given, I'm sure if you look hard enough there are even more plays that suggest he isn't just a small Derrick Henry.

I don't have Taylor head and shoulders above the others for the record. Still have them fairly close. I'd say it's Swift > Taylor >= Dobbins for me.

[MEuRaH]

Where's the stop-and-go footwork that every RB needs to possess? Where did he ever show ability to find cut back lanes? Why can't he keep his hips pointed downfield when he avoids tacklers?

https://youtu.be/we_qHxD6C-4

2:24

I'm no expert on the intricacies of the RB position, but does this play not showcase some of the things you claim JT unequivocally lacks? That is one small crease. Not only did he possess the vision to see it, he has the agility and footwork to get to it. Of course we all know he has the athleticism to explode through it. Two defenders had him squared up in the hole and then poof, he was gone.

Excellent post!

This isn't a zone scheme with cutbacks, it's power (see the pulling guards). He nearly fell down trying to avoid a defender in the backfield where a stop-and-go technique would have worked beautifully.

I'll give him props on the jump-cut at the first down line. Granted that's where the play was supposed to go all along so that might be what his instinct was telling him to do, but he still used his tremendous athleticism to make it work. I had to slow it down to 0.25. speed to see the jump cut in traffic. He went low and kept his hips pointed downfield. It still looks like he leaned into it rather than burst through it but it's hard to tell from that angle. Regardless, this is the first jump cut that I believe I've seen him perform on the field.

The rest isn't so great. That gaff between the handoff and the jump cut is cringe worthy to me.

=======================

I'm not going to address the rest since it's starting to become circle talk. The point is that if you've been taking my advice over the years, there's not one single RB that I've told you to take who didn't live up to their first round potential. I told you to avoid RoJo, DH, Penny, Michel, Guice, and Freeman. If you've listened to me and drafted a RB in the first round, then he guaranteed to live up to his draft status right away, and that's my main goal.

Yes I suggested to avoid Cook and I still suggest that. I currently have him ranked 17th in my DLF rankings, but that doesn't mean I like or want him on my team. The jury is still out on the other guys but you can't argue that they all decreased in value since they were drafted.

I also suggested the David Montgomery is a guy to avoid but because he has a learning curve and I'm not sure if he can get it done. JT falls into the Montgomery category. I'm not even calling him a bust, just a project. But because he's a project I will be avoiding him with any early pick in the draft, and that's my suggestion for everybody with an early pick as well.

[themburns]

This is why I don't pay for premium.

[Zacsby]

That's the subjectivity of film review for ya. You seem to believe him losing his balance initially is more telling than anything else in the play. I feel like that's just something that's bound to happen once in a while and the way he recovered from it was rather impressive for a big guy. Not a move I'd expect Derrick Henry to make.

Look forward to seeing that write up that's about to drop! Can't wait to see how it all plays out.

[OhCruelestRanter]

This is why I don't pay for premium.

No no, you should totally pay for DLF Premium. They’re always right, and when they aren’t, well, it doesn’t count. Somebody get this thread to @Fantasy_Mansion please.

[MEuRaH]

That's the subjectivity of film review for ya. You seem to believe him losing his balance initially is more telling than anything else in the play.

I focus on mistakes, yes. If all I did was look for good things I'd have 30-40 RBs I'd like every year. His amazing agility and balance helped him recover. His talent saved him from sure defeat, but the mistake was a result of skills that need work, which is what I've been suggesting since the first post.

The play is literally a microcosm of this thread, lol. Everyone looks at the result and says "IT'S A TOUCHDOWN YOU'RE SO BLIND!"

[MEuRaH]

No no, you should totally pay for DLF Premium. They’re always right, and when they aren’t, well, it doesn’t count. Somebody get this thread to @Fantasy_Mansion please.

I see a lot of complaining but not a lot of reasons why. Can we finally get some clarification?

Dobbins and Swift will have better rookie seasons than JT. (I think it will easily be better but "easily" isn't measurable so I removed the term)

I'd like to see who disagrees with me so we have something measurable at the end of the season.

[OhCruelestRanter]

That's the subjectivity of film review for ya. You seem to believe him losing his balance initially is more telling than anything else in the play.

I focus on mistakes, yes. If all I did was look for good things I'd have 30-40 RBs I'd like every year. His amazing agility and balance helped him recover. His talent saved him from sure defeat, but the mistake was a result of skills that need work, which is what I've been suggesting since the first post.

The play is literally a microcosm of this thread, lol. Everyone looks at the result and says "IT'S A TOUCHDOWN YOU'RE SO BLIND!"

You still don’t get it- you have no objective data that there is any correlation between needing to refine those skills and lack of fantasy success.

These are just things that you’re describing, but they don’t actually matter any more than your description of what Taylor ate for breakfast before those games.

[OhCruelestRanter]

No no, you should totally pay for DLF Premium. They’re always right, and when they aren’t, well, it doesn’t count. Somebody get this thread to @Fantasy_Mansion please.

I see a lot of complaining but not a lot of reasons why. Can we finally get some clarification?

Dobbins and Swift will have better rookie seasons than JT. (I think it will easily be better but "easily" isn't measurable so I removed the term)

I'd like to see who disagrees with me so we have something measurable at the end of the season.

Dobbins or Swift outperforming Taylor isn’t an unreasonable outcome, especially pre-NFL draft. But since you asked for clarification, I’ll give it to you.

1. Re: Taylor; You didn’t say you had him just behind Dobbins and Swift. You said he isn’t worth a top 6 pick. Barring a catastrophic NFL draft (like he goes to the Giants for some dumb reason) this is a horrible take.

2. The reason you keep getting dunked on doesn’t have as much to do with Taylor as it does the fact that you have habitual provided average to bad running back analysis, loudly proclaimed you were the best at this, and then when called on it you gave the lamest, saddest excuses. Had you either not made such a horrible claim or just manned up and admitted that you’re no better than any other generic scout cosplayer, you wouldn’t be getting this much heat.

This is what you’re getting if you pay for premium, folks. I imagine that money is better spent virtually anywhere else right now.

[FantasyFreak]

My issue with film analysis is 2 different people can see 2 different things. Matt Waldman breaks down the same play Mike just did, but calls his "almost falling down" a stop start movement, the very thing Mike said he should have used. Personally I don't think he almost fell, but I can't definitively argue it.

[MEuRaH]

My issue with film analysis is 2 different people can see 2 different things. Matt Waldman breaks down the same play Mike just did, but calls his "almost falling down" a stop start movement, the very thing Mike said he should have used. Personally I don't think he almost fell, but I can't definitively argue it.

It was a stop and start. Matt Waldman is right. He was allowing his pulling blockers to setup their blocks. But it looks to me like he had his head turned in the direction of the defender in the backfield and second-guessed himself as if he needed to make a move to avoid him and nearly fell down doing it.