Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

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lic217
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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby lic217 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:06 am

I am normally really good with my wide receiver scouting. However I missed on Anthony Miller. Now running backs on the other hand I am not nearly as successful with. Despite this I only play in two fantasy leagues and I’ve only played for about eight years. So there also is a good chance I’ve just gotten lucky with wide receivers and unlucky with running back’s. Will take a much larger sample size to determine. It’s also important to keep in mind that people who get paid professionally for this miss all the time as well. It’s very difficult to do. I am of the belief that I pick my guys. It’s a lot easier to deal with if they’re bad if I pick them that if I let somebody pick them for me. Plus it’s great when you overpay for a guy like Julio, or Keenan Allan before they take the field and they hit. That is a great feeling. Knowing that you were higher on them than most. It also sucks with a guy like Anthony Miller when you proclaim him the best wide receiver in the draft and he has underperformed considerably compared to other prospects
12 team ppr, .2 ppc
1Qb:Carr, Trubisky
1-3Rb:Gaskins,Singeltary,McGuire,Edward,Hill,Love
2-5Wr:Allison,AJB,Deebo,Hollywood,MSV,Ross,Hollins,Zay,Miller,Lasley
1-2TE:J.Smith,Oliver,I.smith
2020:2,4,10,11,20 (overall)
2021:1,1,1,2,2,3,3,4

10 team ppr, 1.5 te, long bonus,.2ppc
1-2 qb: Carr,Luck,Darnold,K. Allen
2-4 rb Miller,Ware,Hilliard,T Johnson,D Washington
2-5 wrShepard,DJ Moore, Diggs,C.Davis,CharkJReynolds,Richardson,Lazard
1-2 te Herdon,Gronk,Everett,,Eifert
2020:1,1,2,3,3,3,4

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby ArrylT » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:18 am

lic217 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:06 am
I am normally really good with my wide receiver scouting. However I missed on Anthony Miller. Now running backs on the other hand I am not nearly as successful with. Despite this I only play in two fantasy leagues and I’ve only played for about eight years. So there also is a good chance I’ve just gotten lucky with wide receivers and unlucky with running back’s. Will take a much larger sample size to determine. It’s also important to keep in mind that people who get paid professionally for this miss all the time as well. It’s very difficult to do. I am of the belief that I pick my guys. It’s a lot easier to deal with if they’re bad if I pick them that if I let somebody pick them for me. Plus it’s great when you overpay for a guy like Julio, or Keenan Allan before they take the field and they hit. That is a great feeling. Knowing that you were higher on them than most. It also sucks with a guy like Anthony Miller when you proclaim him the best wide receiver in the draft and he has underperformed considerably compared to other prospects
Great post! :clap:

Completely agree with the underlined! :thumbup:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:52 am

ArrylT wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:01 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:00 am
Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:44 pm
Seems like mike makes a lot of bold takes that are terrible
He also didn’t claim to be the most accurate evaluator of WRs. People only really started dunking on him when he said he was the best at evaluating running backs.
Yes anyone who heavily negatively critiques another posters stance on a player or a position needs to be able to show that they can do better. Many times it is just pot shots from the peanut gallery and I have a feeling those bounce off most respectable posters be it Cameron Giles, lukkynumber13, Dynasty_Delorean or DLF_MikeH.
Boy cow poop!

If you put yourself out there as a RB guru, with a near 100% hit rate, despite the fact that the most NFL scouting departments probably don't hit 50% in their calls of round 1-3 RBs, YOU'RE GONNA GET A LOT OF SCRUTINY.

Also, if you wanna rely on a track record, you need to actually have that track record (and not change it, qualify it, tweak your secret, proprietary magic
formula, or say you hyped a guy cuz you were trying to two-time a leaguemate who visits the forums, etc.).

I picked Mahomes in 2017, Kyler Murray in 2019, and I had a poster of Joe Montana on my bedroom wall, you don't see me self-anointing as a QB guru. Seriously, if you wanna do it, take 4-5 years and put out clear and unequivocal reports, and let the test of time and peer review determine your guru status.

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:04 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:51 am
God I suck at WR evaluation. That's why I stopped doing it. Until I hit a percentage I feel comfortable with I'll probably steer clear of making another WR proclamation like this.

Miller is actually a better value now than he was when I wrote this. He performed well towards the end of the season last year if I remember correctly? The last 2-4 games or whatever, but mostly as a PPR guy. However, I know several Bears fans who hate the kid. He talks a lot and doesn't back it up and drops a lot of passes. Plus he's on the older side so he doesn't much time to grow.

I like his value and the fact that he's entering his third year. I'd easily buy low (third?) if given the chance in a ppr league, but I honestly don't know what to expect.
Mike, in all honesty, I remembered this piece from a few years back, but had no idea it was you who wrote it. I did not intent to bring more scrutiny on you, you never claimed to be a WR guy, in fact, I believe you claimed the opposite quite some time ago. The reason I bumped the thread is because it went very in depth, and I am thinking Miller may be a buy since his value has dropped. I don't think he will be a big time producer, but more in line with a Crowder type, who is a solid WR3 or bye week guy, who produces decent numbers, and outplays the amount you traded for him. I'm curious if people think he can put up say 65/800/6 this year, with their QB situation.
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

Taxi: Mims, Asiasi

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:33 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:04 pm
Mike, in all honesty, I remembered this piece from a few years back, but had no idea it was you who wrote it. I did not intent to bring more scrutiny on you, you never claimed to be a WR guy, in fact, I believe you claimed the opposite quite some time ago.
I took 0 offense. My position at DLF allows for scrutiny, so I have to embrace it.
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:04 pm
The reason I bumped the thread is because it went very in depth, and I am thinking Miller may be a buy since his value has dropped. I don't think he will be a big time producer, but more in line with a Crowder type, who is a solid WR3 or bye week guy, who produces decent numbers, and outplays the amount you traded for him. I'm curious if people think he can put up say 65/800/6 this year, with their QB situation.
I love this. I think he could be a great off the radar buy low, especially with Foles in town.
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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby FantasyFreak » Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:50 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:33 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:04 pm
Mike, in all honesty, I remembered this piece from a few years back, but had no idea it was you who wrote it. I did not intent to bring more scrutiny on you, you never claimed to be a WR guy, in fact, I believe you claimed the opposite quite some time ago.
I took 0 offense. My position at DLF allows for scrutiny, so I have to embrace it.
FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:04 pm
The reason I bumped the thread is because it went very in depth, and I am thinking Miller may be a buy since his value has dropped. I don't think he will be a big time producer, but more in line with a Crowder type, who is a solid WR3 or bye week guy, who produces decent numbers, and outplays the amount you traded for him. I'm curious if people think he can put up say 65/800/6 this year, with their QB situation.
I love this. I think he could be a great off the radar buy low, especially with Foles in town.
What value would you say is worth a buy vs the 2020 class? Would you send a 2021 second?
DLF Early Birds Special/ Year 1 (16 Team SuperFlex 25 man roster Start 10)

Record: 28-5 Division Champ/League High Scorer/Runner Up

Wentz, Stafford. Driskel
Chubb, Cook, Breida, Ekeler, Penny, James White, D Washington
Evans, Sutton, Woods, Crowder, Agholor, Sanu, , D Robinson, T Taylor
Kittle, Olsen, McDonald, Clay

Taxi: Mims, Asiasi


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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby Kmani6 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:12 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:52 am
ArrylT wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:01 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:00 am


He also didn’t claim to be the most accurate evaluator of WRs. People only really started dunking on him when he said he was the best at evaluating running backs.
Yes anyone who heavily negatively critiques another posters stance on a player or a position needs to be able to show that they can do better. Many times it is just pot shots from the peanut gallery and I have a feeling those bounce off most respectable posters be it Cameron Giles, lukkynumber13, Dynasty_Delorean or DLF_MikeH.
Boy cow poop!

If you put yourself out there as a RB guru, with a near 100% hit rate, despite the fact that the most NFL scouting departments probably don't hit 50% in their calls of round 1-3 RBs, YOU'RE GONNA GET A LOT OF SCRUTINY.

Also, if you wanna rely on a track record, you need to actually have that track record (and not change it, qualify it, tweak your secret, proprietary magic
formula, or say you hyped a guy cuz you were trying to two-time a leaguemate who visits the forums, etc.).

I picked Mahomes in 2017, Kyler Murray in 2019, and I had a poster of Joe Montana on my bedroom wall, you don't see me self-anointing as a QB guru. Seriously, if you wanna do it, take 4-5 years and put out clear and unequivocal reports, and let the test of time and peer review determine your guru status.
Cult keepin it 💯.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, OBJ , Keenan Allen, Terry Mclaurin, Auden Tate, C. Samuel, D. Pettis, Zach Pascal, D. Johnson, A. Miller
TE: Travis Kelce,George Kittle, Jonnu Smith

2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05
2021 Picks: 1st, 3rd

Dynasty Team 2:

16 Team, SuperFlex, PPR, .25 PPC

QB: Rodgers, Big Ben, Winston, Trubisky,
RB: Cook, Mixon,Ingram, Murray, Coleman, Hyde, Miller, Duke Johnson
WR: Golladay,A.J. Green, Landry, Shepard, Sanders, Tate, Westbrook, Fitzgerald
TE: Engram, Rudolph, Doyle

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby Kmani6 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:18 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:01 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:00 am
Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:44 pm
Seems like mike makes a lot of bold takes that are terrible
He also didn’t claim to be the most accurate evaluator of WRs. People only really started dunking on him when he said he was the best at evaluating running backs.
Yes anyone who heavily negatively critiques another posters stance on a player or a position needs to be able to show that they can do better. Many times it is just pot shots from the peanut gallery and I have a feeling those bounce off most respectable posters be it Cameron Giles, lukkynumber13, Dynasty_Delorean or DLF_MikeH.
Sorry, Mike might be your friend or something, but if you’re putting out extremely bold takes and then giving evidence by saying your nearly 100 percent on RB’s in the last 3-4 years with absolutely no quantifiable evidence of that, you’re going to get strong criticism.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, OBJ , Keenan Allen, Terry Mclaurin, Auden Tate, C. Samuel, D. Pettis, Zach Pascal, D. Johnson, A. Miller
TE: Travis Kelce,George Kittle, Jonnu Smith

2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05
2021 Picks: 1st, 3rd

Dynasty Team 2:

16 Team, SuperFlex, PPR, .25 PPC

QB: Rodgers, Big Ben, Winston, Trubisky,
RB: Cook, Mixon,Ingram, Murray, Coleman, Hyde, Miller, Duke Johnson
WR: Golladay,A.J. Green, Landry, Shepard, Sanders, Tate, Westbrook, Fitzgerald
TE: Engram, Rudolph, Doyle

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:49 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:10 pm
I like Miller and Riley Ridley as well.
You're just saying that to trade away Ridley to a league mate, aren't you?
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Mostert, Sony, Penny, D. Freeman, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Julio, Hollywood, Cooks, Preston, Parris, C. Davis, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Jackson
WR: DJM, Chark, Hardman, Mike Will, Diontae, Parris, C. Davis, Lazard
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki
2020: 1.07, 1.09, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby Kmani6 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:53 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:49 pm
Cult of Dionysus wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:10 pm
I like Miller and Riley Ridley as well.
You're just saying that to trade away Ridley to a league mate, aren't you?
Hahaha
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, OBJ , Keenan Allen, Terry Mclaurin, Auden Tate, C. Samuel, D. Pettis, Zach Pascal, D. Johnson, A. Miller
TE: Travis Kelce,George Kittle, Jonnu Smith

2020 Picks: 1.03, 1.05
2021 Picks: 1st, 3rd

Dynasty Team 2:

16 Team, SuperFlex, PPR, .25 PPC

QB: Rodgers, Big Ben, Winston, Trubisky,
RB: Cook, Mixon,Ingram, Murray, Coleman, Hyde, Miller, Duke Johnson
WR: Golladay,A.J. Green, Landry, Shepard, Sanders, Tate, Westbrook, Fitzgerald
TE: Engram, Rudolph, Doyle

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:10 pm

All due respect to Mike though, I know he doesn't claim to be a WR guru. I also take his RB reviews with a grain of salt. No one gets things right 100% of the time (c'mon guys, common sense). I like his process though, and also wish the 3 phrase report was still a thing. It was fun to see holyfield as a thing but immediately drop off after the combine red flags. Just my 0.02
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Mostert, Sony, Penny, D. Freeman, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Julio, Hollywood, Cooks, Preston, Parris, C. Davis, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - 20 Keepers
QB: Dak, Ryan, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Hunt, Penny, J. Jackson
WR: DJM, Chark, Hardman, Mike Will, Diontae, Parris, C. Davis, Lazard
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki
2020: 1.07, 1.09, 2.05
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby SlimJim958 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:52 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:10 pm
All due respect to Mike though, I know he doesn't claim to be a WR guru. I also take his RB reviews with a grain of salt. No one gets things right 100% of the time (c'mon guys, common sense). I like his process though, and also wish the 3 phrase report was still a thing. It was fun to see holyfield as a thing but immediately drop off after the combine red flags. Just my 0.02


Agree!

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:13 am

Anthony Miller was a bust on my WR spreadsheet

It does a great job ruling people out and has a higher hit rate than the NFL

Mike's thing is RBs. Mine is WRs
12 team PPR
QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor (R), Dobbins (R), Henderson, R. Anderson,
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Miller
TE: Engram, Hockenson, I Thomas, Warring
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
Picks: 2021 1, 2021 2, 2022 1, 2022 2, 2022 3

12 team PPR
QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TX)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Ballage, Murray, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TX), Ozigbo (TX), Gaskin (TX)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, Isabella (TX), P. Williams (TX), JJAW (TX), Doss (TX), S. Miller (TX)
TE: Rudolph, Graham, Sternberger (TX)
K:
DEF: LAR
Picks: 1.1, 1.3, 2.4, 5.7, 2021 1, 2021 1, 2021 2, 2021 2, 2021 4, 2021 5

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Re: Anybody Who Doesn't Get Anthony Miller Will Be Missing Out On The Greatest/Cheapest WR In Years

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:17 am

Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:13 am
Anthony Miller was a bust on my WR spreadsheet

It does a great job ruling people out and has a higher hit rate than the NFL

Mike's thing is RBs. Mine is WRs
In that case, are you open to critical feedback like myself? ;)

You said this not even a year ago about Miller:
Johnny B. Goode wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:17 am
was offered 1.10 for him. not sure I want that deal. I dont really like any wrs better than him at that spot
And obviously there were a ton of great WRs in last years draft while Miller went on to disappoint. So my question is: What changed between then and now? What is this spreadsheet you speak of? How did you create it? What does it say about current rookies in this draft class?
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