Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[bjd5211]

...and yet I still see him knocked for his pass protection, seeing it even being called his worst trait.

First thing I saw when I studied Dobbins was his pass protection and how good it was. To me hes the best pass protector of all the available RB's in the draft.

Those other people are crazy.

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 05030?s=20

DJ had positive reviews of JT pass protection.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jk-d ... 2u6ng2TpDH

This isn't the only person I've heard knock his pass pro. Subjectivity is a real thing. I love Dobbins, I started the thread about him being the possible 1.01, but I don't think he has the ceiling JT does, that's for sure. If Taylor hits, he's the top player in this class.

Which is exactly why Taylor is my 1.01 barring a massive shake up in values post NFL Draft. I always go for the higher upside guys if its close and take those gambles, because that's how you get the studs a lot of times. I would rather take a guy I love with huge potential who ends up missing, than pass on that guy and watch him go on to live up to that potential on someone else's roster. All the top RBs in this class are pretty close and I can understand ranking them in any order, but like you said I think Taylor has the highest ceiling of all of them and that's what seperates him for me.

[AussieMate]

How do people measure ceiling? Just curious if there is a consensus or does it vary person to person.
I assume its based on athletic prowess like DGB had a huge ceiling but had a long way to go to get there.

[alewilliam789]

The surest way to communicate that you are over thinking things and have a bad process is by saying you have Taylor outside your top 5. Frankly a ridiculous opinion.

I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value. I do not believe Taylor will produce right away, and I believe in 5 others who will. I'm not looking long term.

I drafted several copies of Kerryon Johnson over others like Guice Michel Penny etc because I was more confident in his ability to perform right away than the others. I was greatly concerned about his inability to take a hit and fall down properly and stay healthy over time, but immediate performance was the catalyst towards drafting him. I swapped him in every league almost immediately for something better. Meanwhile, I can purchase these other guys for peanuts if I want to.

I see something similar happening with JT. He's going to be valued at 1.01 or 1.02 for a long time. I think he can be had for a lot less by this time next year, so there's no way I feel comfortable using a top 5 pick on him this time around.

EDIT: It should be noted that I've had the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years.

I’m going to be honest, after reading your pass-blocking commentary and some of the other commentary you had and it crossed my mind that you were playing him down to possibly nab him.

Not sure if you’ve been busy, but your posts seem less calculated than usual.

[Hottoddies]

I'm not a big fan of how PFF analyzes RBs. I get the impression from listening to a number of their podcasts that they don't really hold RBs in a very high regard. It seems like they see them as insignificant replaceable 2nd class citizens. I doubt that they put much effort into their analysis when it comes to RBs. As long as you have a high broken tackle rate and can run fast you'll do just fine.

That is true to an extent though.

Sure, braking tackles and running fast are fine traits for a RB. But for PFF it's the broken tackle rate that is the real biggie. They have said that it is the biggest indicator for future NFL success. That's why prior to the combine they had Moss as their highest rated RB. Last year it was Montgomery and the year before that it was Penny. What the heck do they even consider what constitutes a broken tackle anyway?

[MEuRaH]

My memory could be off, but weren't you advocating for Miles Sanders last year at 1.02 while also suggesting that he was likely a second-year break-out player?

100% correct. That's because Sanders still had to pass Howard on the depth chart, and I didn't know if that would happen during year 1 or year 2. His talent & skills were never in question (for me) and I didn't want to miss out.

Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.

Absolutely agree, and I don't think you're in the wrong here FF. Always value your opinions and enjoy bantering with you.

It's easy to smash people with hindsight in this game, especially ones who plant flags this early in the process. I just don't want to discourage people from actually staking claims to this sort of stuff, especially ones who put in such extreme time and effort like DD and Mikeh.

I'd also definitely still like to hear an explanation on why Sanders is a good Year 2 breakout worth waiting on, and JT is not. My theory is that it's to do with the talent pool in this draft vs. 2019's though, and how Sanders was already proven with work as a pass catcher coming out of college - he already had the 3 Down skillset, whereas we don't *know* for certain that JT does.

Still praying that I'm seeing Dobbins at 1.05 in my SF league, too... I hope none of my league mates are Mikeh fans

That's for sticking your neck out there mild, I really do appreciate it, but I do indeed bring this on myself. I love the chaos for some odd reason. It's not enough to give my opinion. I want to push a few buttons too. Maybe it's being stuck at home that's making me a little more irritated than normal.

==============

Look at all you Dobbins fans! We should make a club. I'd be thrilled with Dobbins or Swift, given their landing spots are primo.

If JT went to a good running team that utilizes power... say my 49ers... I would be inclined to move JT into the same tier.

[Chwf3rd]

The surest way to communicate that you are over thinking things and have a bad process is by saying you have Taylor outside your top 5. Frankly a ridiculous opinion.

I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value. I do not believe Taylor will produce right away, and I believe in 5 others who will. I'm not looking long term.

I drafted several copies of Kerryon Johnson over others like Guice Michel Penny etc because I was more confident in his ability to perform right away than the others. I was greatly concerned about his inability to take a hit and fall down properly and stay healthy over time, but immediate performance was the catalyst towards drafting him. I swapped him in every league almost immediately for something better. Meanwhile, I can purchase these other guys for peanuts if I want to.

I see something similar happening with JT. He's going to be valued at 1.01 or 1.02 for a long time. I think he can be had for a lot less by this time next year, so there's no way I feel comfortable using a top 5 pick on him this time around.

EDIT: It should be noted that I've had the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years.

This is an incredible write-up. The amount of work you put into it is probably more than the amount of work I've put into anything in fantasy football ever.

Too bad it's going to be DESTROYED this year. I agree with some but most I don't.

OPINIONS:
-- Kerryon is going to turn heads as an elite prospect.
-- Chubb is a thumper. Good in standard, but not valuable in PPR (think Frank Gore).
-- Michel will indeed catch a ton of passes. The Patriots will finally settle on 1 RB to do most of the work, week-in and week-out.
-- Guice I think will do just fine, but his mental health scares me.
-- Royce Freeman is going to fair very well in Denver if they switch to zone, otherwise a bust.
-- Penny is terrible. I can't wait for him to fizzle out in 2-3 years.
-- Jones will fumble a lot. If you watched all that tape, did you notice that he can only carry the ball in his right hand? Recipe for disaster. This is what killed Bryce Brown: tons of talent, but can't do the little things like keeping the ball safe. Talented kid though. If he fixes the minor issues, he'll be great. I just don't have confidence that he will.

BONUS:
-- Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be #2 RB from this class.

===============================================

That said, I love how everyone puts it all out there. You could be 100% entirely wrong, but I'm confident that you'll come back next year and do another write-up just like this. It's awesome to read and I appreciate the time and effort you put into it. I love reading the little stuff because it makes me think and reconsider my opinions. When it challenges my thoughts, that's how you know it's well-written.

Great stuff!

Regarding Dalvin Cook

The dude doesn't care about football. He's a great athlete who excelled at the college level vs most guys who will never turn pro. He makes poor decisions over and over, and comes off as a guy who doesn't care about the sport, he just cares about the money.

There's no way I'm drafting this guy in any format.

More on Dalvin Cook

I was worried about Cook several months ago and I'm even more worried now. The dude just doesn't love football. He loves the life that football provides, but that alone cannot motivate him to be his best for a full career. How does he not work hard enough to put up numbers he's easily capable of achieving? Starting fights? Punching women? Torturing puppies?

I hate this dude. I hate everything about him. I will not be drafting him in any format. Anyone who loves football wouldn't consistently making these bad decisions. He'll be TRich 2.0.

2016

Tier 1
Zeke

Tier 2
Doctson
Coleman
Tread

Tier 3
Thomas
Shepard

Tier 4
Boyd
Dixon
Henry

The Rest.

Carroo is awesome but too crowded. I like Booker but with his injury and attitude, he's going to be in for a rude awakening in Denver.

I like Perkins to take the job in NY, but I am not sold on him as a great RB. More like the Alfred Morris type or something.

I'd honestly consider Drake at 10-12. I'm higher on him than most.

I love DeAndre Washington. I have been drafting him at the beginning of round 2. I was even sniped at 2.05 once. His stock is rising.

[Packerland]

Wow, that's some good digging right there. The Cook takes look really bad right now considering he's probably a top 7 Dynasty asset right now.

[moishetreats]

My memory could be off, but weren't you advocating for Miles Sanders last year at 1.02 while also suggesting that he was likely a second-year break-out player?

100% correct. That's because Sanders still had to pass Howard on the depth chart, and I didn't know if that would happen during year 1 or year 2. His talent & skills were never in question (for me) and I didn't want to miss out.

Thank you for the reply and the clarification!

[OhCruelestRanter]

I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of the doctors said “how do you know so much about this?” Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for President.

[DJB]

@Chwf3rd

Oof. That's some solid digging .

I appreciate when guys are confident (like Mike) and really stick their necks out on a particular player either positive or negative . And it's great when they are correct and boast about. It's all good.

But when one is wrong , you get way more respect from others posters owning up to your mistakes.

Just my opinion however

[Cult of Dionysus]

@Chwf3rd

Oof. That's some solid digging .

I appreciate when guys are confident (like Mike) and really stick their necks out on a particular player either positive or negative . And it's great when they are correct and boast about. It's all good.

But when one is wrong , you get way more respect from others posters owning up to your mistakes.

Just my opinion however

Signed, Elijah Holyfield

[cantguardjake]

@Chwf3rd

Oof. That's some solid digging .

I appreciate when guys are confident (like Mike) and really stick their necks out on a particular player either positive or negative . And it's great when they are correct and boast about. It's all good.

But when one is wrong , you get way more respect from others posters owning up to your mistakes.

Just my opinion however

Signed, Elijah Holyfield

To be fair that was pre combine, Holyfield did look great and was good enough to take a large percentage of snaps off the second coming in Swift. Just turns out he was nearly the slowest running back of the last decade.

[MEuRaH]

Good stuff, Chwf3rd

I stand by my Chubb comment. My definition of a thumper is someone who is under the 3:1 rushing:receiving ratio. Chubb is well below that. That was a good call.

Michel's been hurt a lot, but even if he hadn't been, I was wrong about his ability to catch passes. Bad call. The Patriots did settle on him to be the #1 back, so that's also a good call.

I've talked about the Ballage stuff. I was trying to induce a trade. All of that should be ignored.

I still don't trust Dalvin Cook. I never questioned his talent, I questioned his work ethic and life choices. Conditioning falls into that category. He's only played in 28 of 48 games. He's never had a healthy season in his career. I don't own him in any leagues and I want no part of him ever. He's a top 20 talent when he's on the field -- WHEN he's on the field -- but he's a high risk guy imo. I want no part of him. I stand by that initial rating. I don't trust him beyond his rookie deal. He will have spurts of games and runs that are highlight worthy, but as far as a guy that I can rely on year in and year out for the next 4-6 years to help my fantasy team win? No, I don't believe so. The jury is still out imo. You can disagree with this and that's fine by me.

You called out my Henry ranking but that's 7th-9th overall in a crowded WR draft, and he was drafted to a team that already had DeMarco Murray for another 3 years. Murray is also a one-cut runner and perfect for that system, Henry was not. They had to adjust the entire offensive philosophy and we all had to wait several years for him to be successful. That was a good call.

DeAndre Washington is a guy I always liked as a sneaky PPR player. I thought it was a good landing spot at the time, and there was no competition for him at the time so I loved it even more, but I was wrong. He just won't ever be anything in that offense, and now that the RB market is so flooded, maybe any offense ever. That's such a shame. Bad call and a sad one at that.

I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of the doctors said “how do you know so much about this?” Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for President.

HILAROUS!

you get way more respect from others posters owning up to your mistakes.

And that's if respect is something you care about. I don't. I care about being as accurate as possible and providing differing viewpoints that challenge one's opinion. I like to push and prod to generate a reaction that push my opinions to such great relevancy so that I either greatly succeed or fail miserably. It's all about raising the stakes. I love to gamble.

Signed, Elijah Holyfield

I stopped posting my 3-part series because of this. Holyfield looked great on tape, as did a dozen RBs, but nothing could be supported with numbers until the combine. You're responding with a blip on my part 1 series, where I was teaching/showing others how I evaluate RBs so that they could maybe do the same.

The whole point was that some people look amazing on tape but fail to mirror that at the combine, and if that happens then that's a red flag. Holyfield was the best ever example of that, and I tried to highlight that in my 2nd part of the series. But all anybody ever focused on was that "Mike was wrong" and "look he completely changed his mind", missing the whole point entirely.

Every year I look at RBs I like a good 10-20 from the get go. Then the combine happens and that narrows it down considerably. Then team placement happens and I adjust one more time, and that's it. I tried to show that process, people didn't understand it, so I stopped showing it.

[FantasyFreak]

I stand by my Chubb comment. My definition of a thumper is someone who is under the 3:1 rushing:receiving ratio. Chubb is well below that. That was a good call.

Except you also said Chubb would not be valuable in PPR, and he is. FWIW, I think you were right on Jones, other than the fumbles, which really haven't been an issue. He's talented, but it doesn't' look like he will "put it all together".

[Pac_Eddy]

I stand by my Chubb comment. My definition of a thumper is someone who is under the 3:1 rushing:receiving ratio. Chubb is well below that. That was a good call.

Except you also said Chubb would not be valuable in PPR, and he is. FWIW, I think you were right on Jones, other than the fumbles, which really haven't been an issue. He's talented, but it doesn't' look like he will "put it all together".

Aaron Jones?