Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[djeternal2]

The surest way to communicate that you are over thinking things and have a bad process is by saying you have Taylor outside your top 5. Frankly a ridiculous opinion.

I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value. I do not believe Taylor will produce right away, and I believe in 5 others who will. I'm not looking long term.

I drafted several copies of Kerryon Johnson over others like Guice Michel Penny etc because I was more confident in his ability to perform right away than the others. I was greatly concerned about his inability to take a hit and fall down properly and stay healthy over time, but immediate performance was the catalyst towards drafting him. I swapped him in every league almost immediately for something better. Meanwhile, I can purchase these other guys for peanuts if I want to.

I see something similar happening with JT. He's going to be valued at 1.01 or 1.02 for a long time. I think he can be had for a lot less by this time next year, so there's no way I feel comfortable using a top 5 pick on him this time around.

EDIT: It should be noted that I've had the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years.

Don't hurt yourself. smfh

[MEuRaH]

EDIT: It should be noted that I've had the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years.

Compared to who?

Don't hurt yourself. smfh

In comparison to who?

If you don't know me, I love to make bold statements and claims and push out some arrogance along the way. It's fun for me, and when I'm finally wrong, a good time can be had by all, myself included. Although I'm rarely wrong. Sheesh I can't even remember the last time... someone help me! =P

The "Sell RoJo now" thread is probably the closest you can get, although I still think he's not worth owning. But every time his value goes up a notch, someone doesn't mind twisting the knife a little bit, and heck I kinda like it too. It's a fun thread and I enjoy the banter. I'm hoping the same thing happens here, though I'm not nearly as low on JT as I am on others.

Anyway, back to this thread: Perhaps I used a comparison word when I shouldn't have, but it's hard to be better than a nearly 100% success rate over that span. My RB analysis, along with my deep study of individual draft pick values, is the reason I was hired to the DLF staff.

FF: did you delete your post or did I accidentally delete it when quoting it? If I did I apologize. I tried to recover it.

[FantasyFreak]

The surest way to communicate that you are over thinking things and have a bad process is by saying you have Taylor outside your top 5. Frankly a ridiculous opinion.

I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value. I do not believe Taylor will produce right away, and I believe in 5 others who will. I'm not looking long term.

I drafted several copies of Kerryon Johnson over others like Guice Michel Penny etc because I was more confident in his ability to perform right away than the others. I was greatly concerned about his inability to take a hit and fall down properly and stay healthy over time, but immediate performance was the catalyst towards drafting him. I swapped him in every league almost immediately for something better. Meanwhile, I can purchase these other guys for peanuts if I want to.

I see something similar happening with JT. He's going to be valued at 1.01 or 1.02 for a long time. I think he can be had for a lot less by this time next year, so there's no way I feel comfortable using a top 5 pick on him this time around.

EDIT: It should be noted that I've had the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years.

Still not over Chubb though, you took him at 1.03 in a league if I recall, so while it was better than taking him over Guice due to the ACL, had you taken Chubb, the value would have been greater than KJ.

Also, you had Kalen Ballage over Nick Chubb in your year 1 rankings.

"I like Ballage. No wait, lemme say that again: I LOVE BALLAGE. I think he has a chance to take over the #1 job and run away as the surprise of the draft. I own Ballage in ever league I drafted in. It might not happen until 2019, but it'll happen." -your quote

"Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be number 2 RB from this class." -your quote

This was from post NFL draft 2018, May 14th. That's a pretty big whiff. There's more, but I won't bother with those for now. I wouldn't normally look at old quotes, but when you make claims like that, you open yourself up for scrutiny, so people will look to see if your claim is right.

BTW, I was trying to edit my post by going into more detail, so you did not delete it.

[MEuRaH]

The surest way to communicate that you are over thinking things and have a bad process is by saying you have Taylor outside your top 5. Frankly a ridiculous opinion.

I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value. I do not believe Taylor will produce right away, and I believe in 5 others who will. I'm not looking long term.

I drafted several copies of Kerryon Johnson over others like Guice Michel Penny etc because I was more confident in his ability to perform right away than the others. I was greatly concerned about his inability to take a hit and fall down properly and stay healthy over time, but immediate performance was the catalyst towards drafting him. I swapped him in every league almost immediately for something better. Meanwhile, I can purchase these other guys for peanuts if I want to.

I see something similar happening with JT. He's going to be valued at 1.01 or 1.02 for a long time. I think he can be had for a lot less by this time next year, so there's no way I feel comfortable using a top 5 pick on him this time around.

EDIT: It should be noted that I've had the most accurate RB analysis over the last 3-4 years.

Still not over Chubb though, you took him at 1.03 in a league if I recall, so while it was better than taking him over Guice due to the ACL, had you taken Chubb, the value would have been greater than KJ.

Also, you had Kalen Ballage over Nick Chubb in your year 1 rankings.

"I like Ballage. No wait, lemme say that again: I LOVE BALLAGE. I think he has a chance to take over the #1 job and run away as the surprise of the draft. I own Ballage in ever league I drafted in. It might not happen until 2019, but it'll happen." -your quote

"Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be number 2 RB from this class." -your quote

This was from post NFL draft 2018, May 14th. That's a pretty big whiff. There's more, but I won't bother with those for now. I wouldn't normally look at old quotes, but when you make claims like that, you open yourself up for scrutiny, so people will look to see if your claim is right.

BTW, I was trying to edit my post by going into more detail, so you did not delete it.

The think I had KJ and Chubb in the same tier. But the point is valid that had I taken Chubb over KJ in year one, then I definitely would have made out better. Good call.

The Ballage posts aren't to be taken serious. I owned Ballage in a league and I was in trade talks with a guy for his future 1st. He was an avid user on this forum and loved my opinions, but didn't know that the user on these forums and the person he was negotiating with was the same person. I was trying to squeeze out the deal of a lifetime. He didn't pull the trigger. I kept at it thinking I could eventually get a 2nd. He didn't pull the trigger on that either. Someone else eventually did.

I found a post I wrote that says as much: viewtopic.php?p=1660640#p1660640

I had nothing to lose. I wasn't being paid by DLF yet. Now that I am I have to try to be as honest as possible. I never loved Ballage. He had no lateral quickness.

I'm pretty sure I had Barkley/KJ/Chubb in my top 3. I didn't have the order correct, so that's a good call.

[Cameron Giles]

The think I had KJ and Chubb in the same tier. But the point is valid that had I taken Chubb over KJ in year one, then I definitely would have made out better. Good call.

The Ballage posts aren't to be taken serious. I owned Ballage in a league and I was in trade talks with a guy for his future 1st. He was an avid user on this forum and loved my opinions, but didn't know that the user on these forums and the person he was negotiating with was the same person. I was trying to squeeze out the deal of a lifetime. He didn't pull the trigger. I kept at it thinking I could eventually get a 2nd. He didn't pull the trigger on that either. Someone else eventually did.

I found a post I wrote that says as much: viewtopic.php?p=1660640#p1660640

I had nothing to lose. I wasn't being paid by DLF yet. Now that I am I have to try to be as honest as possible. I never loved Ballage. He had no lateral quickness.

I'm pretty sure I had Barkley/KJ/Chubb in my top 3. I didn't have the order correct, so that's a good call.

This probably makes you look worse though. Granted, I'm sure everyone on here makes up positive and negative opinions to pump up or decrease value (and it's usually pretty obvious when it's happening), but if you're sticking your neck out for players, then you could use this line each time you're wrong.

[moishetreats]

I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value.

My memory could be off, but weren't you advocating for Miles Sanders last year at 1.02 while also suggesting that he was likely a second-year break-out player?

If my memory is correct, then what's the difference between Sanders in 2019 and Taylor in 2020?

If my memory is incorrect, then shame on me for not going back to search the threads!

Thank you as always for your thoughtful posts, Mike!

[OhCruelestRanter]

I have the most accurate RB analysis.

Well, I didn’t mean that and I’ve never actually validated this claim. But I’m nearly 100% accurate.

Also that time I was dead wrong I was just kidding.

[Bronco Billy]

Also, you had Kalen Ballage over Nick Chubb in your year 1 rankings.

"I like Ballage. No wait, lemme say that again: I LOVE BALLAGE. I think he has a chance to take over the #1 job and run away as the surprise of the draft. I own Ballage in ever league I drafted in. It might not happen until 2019, but it'll happen." -your quote

"Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be number 2 RB from this class." -your quote

The Ballage posts aren't to be taken serious. I owned Ballage in a league and I was in trade talks with a guy for his future 1st. He was an avid user on this forum and loved my opinions, but didn't know that the user on these forums and the person he was negotiating with was the same person. I was trying to squeeze out the deal of a lifetime. He didn't pull the trigger. I kept at it thinking I could eventually get a 2nd. He didn't pull the trigger on that either. Someone else eventually did.

JHC

So you don’t miss except when you do, and when you do then retroactively it was just a joke so it doesn’t count.

Does anyone in here except you take you seriously?

[CGW]

I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value.

My memory could be off, but weren't you advocating for Miles Sanders last year at 1.02 while also suggesting that he was likely a second-year break-out player?

If my memory is correct, then what's the difference between Sanders in 2019 and Taylor in 2020?

If my memory is incorrect, then shame on me for not going back to search the threads!

Thank you as always for your thoughtful posts, Mike!

I'd say the big difference between last year and this is that Sanders had very minimal competition in the rookie drafts last year, as opposed to the 4-5 standouts this year. Makes it easier to push JTs ranking down.

Still, Mike definitely was drafting Sanders as a 2nd year breakout while holding it against JT...your memory is correct.

[mild]

Does anyone in here except you take you seriously?

Yeah, I do.

Everyone take a step back. Mikeh is a baiter in the extreme and loves to lean in on his evaluation record (he HAS been running hot lately) but he's also someone whose actually coached the position - albeit not in the pros. At the end of the day, if you fade JT now "just because Mike said so" then that's on you - this is all stuff that good owners are filing away, and checking against their preconceptions. That's actually valuable, unlike the majority of "IS THERE A CONSENSUS TOP 5 IN THIS DRAFT, I HAVE 1.02 WHAT DO I DO" threads that are all over this board.

Dude is actually bothering to stick his neck out for us to chop it off on the internet. Looks like we nearly beheaded him on Ballage, there... bad look Mike, and I'm sure he agrees. Was the Ballage thing part of an actual RB report he was putting his name to? Whatever the case, Mike, lean back fella - we know you're good at RB opinions, you should just trust that we're listening. No need to qualify it.

Lets get back on topic. Mike - when is this article going to run that you mentioned? And when can we expect a little more grand reveals on these 2020 RB's...?

[FantasyFreak]

Does anyone in here except you take you seriously?

Yeah, I do.

Everyone take a step back. Mikeh is a baiter in the extreme and loves to lean in on his evaluation record (he HAS been running hot lately) but he's also someone whose actually coached the position - albeit not in the pros. At the end of the day, if you fade JT now "just because Mike said so" then that's on you - this is all stuff that good owners are filing away, and checking against their preconceptions. That's actually valuable, unlike the majority of "IS THERE A CONSENSUS TOP 5 IN THIS DRAFT, I HAVE 1.02 WHAT DO I DO" threads that are all over this board.

Dude is actually bothering to stick his neck out for us to chop it off on the internet. Looks like we nearly beheaded him on Ballage, there... bad look Mike, and I'm sure he agrees. Was the Ballage thing part of an actual RB report he was putting his name to? Whatever the case, Mike, lean back fella - we know you're good at RB opinions, you should just trust that we're listening. No need to qualify it.

Lets get back on topic. Mike - when is this article going to run that you mentioned? And when can we expect a little more grand reveals on these 2020 RB's...?

It was on DD's RB report 2018. I think this thread he may have mentioned the idea of doing his own. He went into detail, and color co-ordinated the rankings just like DD did. It's a 20 page thread, that's where the takes were from.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=153507&start=405#p1475382

FWIW, I undersold Wilkins a bit, as I called him a camp body/practice squad player, where in fact he did make the roster. I was being hyperbolic a bit, but I honestly thought he'd be a borderline NFL player. He's still in the league a few years later, so I did undersell him. We all make mistakes, I was simply pointing them out due to the fact he said he was more accurate than anyone else. Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.

[cantguardjake]

I loved Mikes report last year and look forward to this years but cmon, you clearly liked Ballage enough to draft him (ADP was a second at the time) - let’s not pretend you suddenly thought he was a spud all of 2 weeks later. Or was drafting him part of the ruse too?

I would have run with the “well technically he did win the starting job” angle myself tbh, but each to their own

[mild]

Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.

Absolutely agree, and I don't think you're in the wrong here FF. Always value your opinions and enjoy bantering with you.

It's easy to smash people with hindsight in this game, especially ones who plant flags this early in the process. I just don't want to discourage people from actually staking claims to this sort of stuff, especially ones who put in such extreme time and effort like DD and Mikeh.

I'd also definitely still like to hear an explanation on why Sanders is a good Year 2 breakout worth waiting on, and JT is not. My theory is that it's to do with the talent pool in this draft vs. 2019's though, and how Sanders was already proven with work as a pass catcher coming out of college - he already had the 3 Down skillset, whereas we don't *know* for certain that JT does.

Still praying that I'm seeing Dobbins at 1.05 in my SF league, too... I hope none of my league mates are Mikeh fans

[AussieMate]

Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.

Absolutely agree, and I don't think you're in the wrong here FF. Always value your opinions and enjoy bantering with you.

It's easy to smash people with hindsight in this game, especially ones who plant flags this early in the process. I just don't want to discourage people from actually staking claims to this sort of stuff, especially ones who put in such extreme time and effort like DD and Mikeh.

I'd also definitely still like to hear an explanation on why Sanders is a good Year 2 breakout worth waiting on, and JT is not. My theory is that it's to do with the talent pool in this draft vs. 2019's though, and how Sanders was already proven with work as a pass catcher coming out of college - he already had the 3 Down skillset, whereas we don't *know* for certain that JT does.

Still praying that I'm seeing Dobbins at 1.05 in my SF league, too... I hope none of my league mates are Mikeh fans

My theory is similar to yours, or potentially the talent gap, he believed Sanders would score less than Jacobs year 1 but not by a lot maybe (Jacobs and Sanders aren't that far apart in adp coming into year 2), whilst he might be predicting Dobbins and Swift to vastly outscore JT making it not worth the wait.

[Sriracha]

Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.

Absolutely agree, and I don't think you're in the wrong here FF. Always value your opinions and enjoy bantering with you.

It's easy to smash people with hindsight in this game, especially ones who plant flags this early in the process. I just don't want to discourage people from actually staking claims to this sort of stuff, especially ones who put in such extreme time and effort like DD and Mikeh.

I'd also definitely still like to hear an explanation on why Sanders is a good Year 2 breakout worth waiting on, and JT is not. My theory is that it's to do with the talent pool in this draft vs. 2019's though, and how Sanders was already proven with work as a pass catcher coming out of college - he already had the 3 Down skillset, whereas we don't *know* for certain that JT does.

Still praying that I'm seeing Dobbins at 1.05 in my SF league, too... I hope none of my league mates are Mikeh fans

My theory is similar to yours, or potentially the talent gap, he believed Sanders would score less than Jacobs year 1 but not by a lot maybe (Jacobs and Sanders aren't that far apart in adp coming into year 2), whilst he might be predicting Dobbins and Swift to vastly outscore JT making it not worth the wait.

I'd say that 2019 didn't have any 5 star prospects (Jacobs was widely lauded, but his measurables were not great), so it'd make more sense to go with the more athletic and rougher prospect in Sanders.

This year, I'd say there are 3 5 star RB's in Taylor, Swift, Dobbins. If you don't believe Taylor is NFL ready at this point, then it makes sense to go with one of the other 2 5 star RB's in Swift/Dobbins.

I believe the flaw in this argument is: Taylor is not terrible, so he will likely be productive wherever he lands regardless of how far away he is as a finished project. Given his athletic upside, he will likely be valued near the other two, if not higher at the end of the season even if he's marginally less productive; and if Taylor shores up his weaknesses (which is very likely given his work ethic, improvements in college, and how much RB's tend to improve in his areas of weakness in year 2) he'll probably end up the more valuable asset in year 2+

But we'll see. It's entirely possible that Dobbins and or Swift are simply the more talented RB's and will continue to be valued higher than him in the future.