Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

[bjd5211]

Hollywood Brown was the first WR drafted in the NFL Draft last year, and one of only two in the 1st round, but nobody was taking him as the first WR in rookie drafts and he was frequently lasting until the 2nd round.

[FantasyFreak]

And thank you analytics guys for pushing Taylor up so I can get Dobbins, it's appreciated.

Dobbins would have had great analytics had he participated. He was a 99th percentile athlete coming into college. BTW, who doesn't use analytics in some capacity? I use both analytics and my amateur scouting, but are there people around here who just literally watch cut ups and that's the entire foundation for their draft process?

I use both as well, that was just the second time he thanked film guys so I thought I should do same courtesy. I don't dislike Taylor I just really like Dobbins and Taylors been getting a massive boost from analytics guys which will give me a better chance to get my guy at 1.05.

I actually have the 1.02 as well and will probably take Lamb as the 1.01-1.03 owner loves Swift and Jeudy in that order and the 1.04 needs and wants a wr which will leave me with either Dobbins or Taylor at 5 (won't be upset either way but prefer Dobbins) if he doesn't reach for a different wr. This could all change obviously with draft but I know these 2 owners really well and generally can pick them every year.

Ah, I see. Yeah, I use both, but know my limits as a scout, and trust analytics a little more these days unless I get a bad feel about a player. "Gut" is literally the least scientific method there is, but if I just can't get past what I see despite great metrics, I will pass. I am not doing that with JT, but I think there are 4 really high end RB's in this class, so I'm not going to really argue too much if others prefer 1 slightly, but I just don't see how Taylor can be considered a much lower prospect than the others, even with preferring one of the others over him.

[Hottoddies]

I have no idea why you’d bring those guys up. RoJo in particular was a tape grinder guy; the analytics folks knew better.

Seriously though, thank you tape grinders for helping to push this historically productive freak athlete down the board to the people who know better, all because you have convinced yourselves that you like Swift’s jumpcut better, or some other nonsense.

This is Derrick Henry’s footwork all over again.

And thank you analytics guys for pushing Taylor up so I can get Dobbins, it's appreciated.

Are we helping? I’d bet the analytics crowd is doing more to push Dobbins ahead of CEH than it is to push Dobbins behind Taylor.

I would like to thank everyone who have pushed all the RBs ahead of CEH. Now I can only hope that the NFL doesn't draft him before Taylor.

[AussieMate]

Ah, I see. Yeah, I use both, but know my limits as a scout, and trust analytics a little more these days unless I get a bad feel about a player. "Gut" is literally the least scientific method there is, but if I just can't get past what I see despite great metrics, I will pass. I am not doing that with JT, but I think there are 4 really high end RB's in this class, so I'm not going to really argue too much if others prefer 1 slightly, but I just don't see how Taylor can be considered a much lower prospect than the others, even with preferring one of the others over him.

I do very similar, if I have players close I do like to watch a bunch of tape as at the end of the day of prefer a guy on my team who I see something imo.
I was never a huge Taylor fan but obviously listen to experts and have him in my top 3, same with Jeudy there is something about watching Jeudy I just cant get behind so I'd prefer to take Lamb or an RB and get Reagor later who a lot if expert like plus when I watch him I get a gut feeling that he has an "it" factor but I wouldn't draft Reagor with my 1.02 where as I might draft Jeudy there as he's consensus a superior prospect.

[AussieMate]

I have no idea why you’d bring those guys up. RoJo in particular was a tape grinder guy; the analytics folks knew better.

Seriously though, thank you tape grinders for helping to push this historically productive freak athlete down the board to the people who know better, all because you have convinced yourselves that you like Swift’s jumpcut better, or some other nonsense.

This is Derrick Henry’s footwork all over again.

And thank you analytics guys for pushing Taylor up so I can get Dobbins, it's appreciated.

Are we helping? I’d bet the analytics crowd is doing more to push Dobbins ahead of CEH than it is to push Dobbins behind Taylor.

I don't care for CEH at all so he can get pushed where ever as long as Dobbins gets pushed behind Taylor, I only care if it helps me haha

[Cult of Dionysus]

For what it's worth I'm not calling him a bust, I just don't think he's worth the top 2 spots in the rookie draft. I think JK Dobbins & D'Andre Swift are FAAAARRR superior. They are my 1A and 1B, landing spot will dictate which is which.

JT has the biggest learning curve. If he became an elite runner in 2021 I wouldn't be surprised at all.

I had a feeling you would like Dobbins, it's all in the hips!!

I love Dobbins. If I was forced to pick at the 1.01 spot right now and I couldn't trade out, Dobbins would be my guy.

PS: Sorry Matt!

Screen Shot 2020-03-25 at 6.59.00 PM.png

EDIT: FWIW, I didn't call Taylor JAG. I said if he doesn't work on his skill then he will be JAG at the next level. He's an elite talent.

You should join the Early Bird Special league, so you can experience the real thing.

[Lord_Varys]

CMC, Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook were all taken after Leonard Fournette. The NFL seems to get it wrong as often as they get it right. Draft stock matters but only to a point. I really don't care if Taylor is the 2nd or 3rd RB off the board - that has zero bearing on where I draft him.

The team who drafts him does have some bearing to me, but generally I'm going to take talent over situation in rookie drafts. AJB value catered when the Titans took him, but talent finds a way more often than not.

Unless Swift goes to KC, JT is the one. Bigger, faster, stronger, more instinctual and dominant as a runner, and JT we know can catch. People are making this harder than it has to be.

[Sriracha]

If Taylor is NOT the 1st RB off the board in the NFL draft, does he lose his 1.01 status solely on that?

I think if Taylor is not one of the top skill position players off the board, then people should at least reconsider.

There's a relevant chance that Taylor goes behind 2 RBs and 5-6 WRs. It would be hard to anoint him as the clear 1.01 if that happens. At some point, NFL scouting has to align to some degree with rookie drafts.

That's not to say that we need to draft in order of the NFL though, but there's potentially better value to be had on paper if someone takes Taylor at 1.01 and someone like Dobbins or Swift is available at 1.04-1.06.

It does, to some degree, but again, it's typical for RB's to go ahead of WR's in Fantasy drafts, due to their value in most leagues. Guice, as I had used as an example, was widely considered 1.02 behind an all time type prospect in Barkley, despite being the 7th RB taken, and there were WR's that went ahead of him as well. 6 WR's, 6 RB's and (TE's and QB's also, but I'll leave them out due to typical Fantasy hierarchy at skill positions in non SF leagues),.

So he was the 13th skill position player taken in the NFL draft, and yet was the 1.02 by most, in a class that had a talent like Barkley not existed, would have been considered the 1.01. Anything inside the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft I typically see as the realm in which people draft based on their own takes and intuitions in Fantasy, and that is a yearly occurrence.

Draft capital is important, but it's not everything. I don't particularly care about the nominal 1.01 distinction in rookie drafts. In 2018, Saquon was the clear 1.01 in both the Fantasy community and the NFL. The next two running backs selected were Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Kerryon Johnson, Derrius Guice.

The fantasy community's top 3 (from a talent perspective) were always Saquon, Chubb, Guice (who has been a disappointment due to injury, but has clearly been impressive when he does play).

I believe the media scouts are underrating Taylor, and he will be the first RB selected... but even if he's not , it wouldn't be the first time that draft capital didn't align with a players talent

[PR0v3]

CMC, Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook were all taken after Leonard Fournette. The NFL seems to get it wrong as often as they get it right. Draft stock matters but only to a point. I really don't care if Taylor is the 2nd or 3rd RB off the board - that has zero bearing on where I draft him.

The team who drafts him does have some bearing to me, but generally I'm going to take talent over situation in rookie drafts. AJB value catered when the Titans took him, but talent finds a way more often than not.

Unless Swift goes to KC, JT is the one. Bigger, faster, stronger, more instinctual and dominant as a runner, and JT we know can catch. People are making this harder than it has to be.

Fournette has a strong argument for being the second best RB of that group though. He has certainly done more than Cook and Mixon so far, from a fantasy and real life perspective, and was the feature component of a team that has gotten farther than anything Kamara and the Saints have done in the same time. The only guy with a clear edge also had very strong draft capital. Not really the best example there.

[Cameron Giles]

Hollywood Brown was the first WR drafted in the NFL Draft last year, and one of only two in the 1st round, but nobody was taking him as the first WR in rookie drafts and he was frequently lasting until the 2nd round.

Bad example. The dynasty community was off on Brown and shouldn't have been. He was mocked in the 2nd round before and after the draft. Meanwhile, the NFL had Brown pegged as the top WR in the class, despite his injury.

[Cameron Giles]

ee, but again, it's typical for RB's to go ahead of WR's in Fantasy drafts, due to their value in most leagues. Guice, as I had used as an example, was widely considered 1.02 behind an all time type prospect in Barkley, despite being the 7th RB taken, and there were WR's that went ahead of him as well. 6 WR's, 6 RB's and (TE's and QB's also, but I'll leave them out due to typical Fantasy hierarchy at skill positions in non SF leagues),.

So he was the 13th skill position player taken in the NFL draft, and yet was the 1.02 by most, in a class that had a talent like Barkley not existed, would have been considered the 1.01. Anything inside the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft I typically see as the realm in which people draft based on their own takes and intuitions in Fantasy, and that is a yearly occurrence.

I don't have an issue with RBs going ahead of WRs. I understand that's the best chance for people to get immediate value to flip after a season, if they choose to. I just don't see the value in chasing Taylor at the 1.01, if he's not clearly more talented, skilled, or in a better situation than the other RBs.

As far as the Guice example goes, maybe that's a reason why we should learn from history, even though Guice hasn't failed for a lack of talent.

[FantasyFreak]

Hollywood Brown was the first WR drafted in the NFL Draft last year, and one of only two in the 1st round, but nobody was taking him as the first WR in rookie drafts and he was frequently lasting until the 2nd round.

Bad example. The dynasty community was off on Brown and shouldn't have been. He was mocked in the 2nd round before and after the draft. Meanwhile, the NFL had Brown pegged as the top WR in the class, despite his injury.

It a good example of going too far off the NFL draft. People were too down on Hollywood.

Hollywood is also a good example of not taking the guy higher just because he had the better draft capital, within reason. Taking myself for the example, I always had AJB over Hollywood, and despite Hollywood going ahead of AJB, the draft capital was good enough for AJB that I still went with the player who I liked more. However, when Hollywood fell to the mid 2nd in my 12 team SF, I traded back in because I felt my league was undervaluing a player that should no longer be on the board, so I made a move to get the pick.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Hollywood Brown was the first WR drafted in the NFL Draft last year, and one of only two in the 1st round, but nobody was taking him as the first WR in rookie drafts and he was frequently lasting until the 2nd round.

Bad example. The dynasty community was off on Brown and shouldn't have been. He was mocked in the 2nd round before and after the draft. Meanwhile, the NFL had Brown pegged as the top WR in the class, despite his injury.

That’s different though. The first player off his board at his position isn’t always the first player taken at that position in fantasy. Tavon Austin and Corey Coleman are other examples. It’s the just 1.01 overall that’s almost always the first player taken at his position.

[Cameron Giles]

Yup, I would take Taylor 1.01 in that scenario. Good team with a great D and improving offense that wants to establish the running game, with the best OL among the landing spots of the top 3 RBs (JT, Swift, JK) and ya he has Singletary to deal with, but that's better than Ekeler or Gurley for JK/Akers in this scenario, and Swift would have Howard to deal with too. I think Buffalo would actually be quite a good RB landing spot in this draft. Also I'm taking the RB over a WR in rookie drafts the majority of the time because they come in at/near peak production and value nearly right away whereas WRs could take some time, so I am 99% certain I'm taking a RB at 1.01 this year no matter who it is.

The flipside to this is that RBs could be crashing in value while WR's are just hitting their peaks of value, which lasts longer than RBs.

Also, the Chargers offensive line produced slightly more adjusted line yards than Buffalo last year. So, I'm not sure you can call them a better OL. I think that just furthers the point that the situations are not really clearly better, nor is the talent or skill. I like Taylor, but wouldn't at all be shocked if Dobbins has a better NFL career.

[Cameron Giles]

It a good example of going too far off the NFL draft. People were too down on Hollywood.

Hollywood is also a good example of not taking the guy higher just because he had the better draft capital, within reason. Taking myself for the example, I always had AJB over Hollywood, and despite Hollywood going ahead of AJB, the draft capital was good enough for AJB that I still went with the player who I liked more. However, when Hollywood fell to the mid 2nd in my 12 team SF, I traded back in because I felt my league was undervaluing a player that should no longer be on the board, so I made a move to get the pick.

I'm not saying that you take Denzel Mims over Jonathan Taylor because Mims went 1st round and Taylor went 2nd round. I'm merely saying that if there are 8-10 skill position players selected in the first 40-50 picks and Taylor is on the low end of them, then at some point, it should at least factor into evaluations and value.

Example, if Dobbins goes 2nd round and Taylor goes 2nd round, and there is no difference in situation, and we already know the talent level is very similar, though you can make a strong case that Dobbins is a more well-rounded RB, then why is Taylor the 1.01 and Dobbins is not?

It's just not adding up.