The point about the economic outreach of school closing isn't something I really considered. That's a good point- child care is something we should consider.TimeWillTell wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:56 pmAs someone who keeps two weeks of food and water around in case of a natural disaster, I am a big fan of preparedness. But there is absolutely a line between panic and preparedness and we are flirting with it and probably have crossed it in some cases, with misinformation floating around and often propagated by the media. Ultimately, this illness is no different than any other viral illness and that the elderly and immunocompromise are at higher risk (usually children also but that doesn't seem to be the case in this). And while I am in favor of reducing the amount of large gatherings, we need to be careful to Not lose sight of the bigger picture. It’s all intertwined. For example, as more and more schools and other activities are canceled, that will put a strain on the working class folks including myself who gets up and goes to work every day to treat patients that need me. My wife and I both work, if school and daycare cancels, I have to stay home or she does and either way patients suffer. As more people panic buy basic items, others will go without which may lead to the degradation of basic sanitation and nutrition, Which in turn will lead to a whole host of problems. I don’t have a perfect answer or solution, but I think we need to tread carefully.OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:44 pmRespectfully, I think you’re all wrong. Look into what’s happening in Italy right now. Cancelling all elective surgeries because they don’t have enough vents, having to decide whose prognosis is too poor to even get intubated. This doesn’t happen with just a cold.
Buying all of your grocery store’s toilet paper is dumb. But we should be cancelling school and all major events before this gets worse. This isn’t panic, it’s preparedness.
As far as what I personally believe, I believe as testing becomes more accessible and more widespread we will find more and more cases of positive patients with mild disease which will ultimately drive the mortality rate down. If I was a betting man I would guess the general mortality rate will be around 0.3% to 0.5%, which may be further reduced is a efficacious vaccination arises. We are already seeing the mortality rate go down worldwide (though Italy does seem to be an outlier). Time will tell.
As for this being like any other virus, you can say that Italy is an outlier, but how many other viruses have produced an outlier that severe in a developed country?